Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis With Bayesian Networks

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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman Fenton
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439809119
Total Pages : 516 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2012-11-07 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed The book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using BN models, then goes into the detailed applications. The underlying BN algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use BN models. Keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the AgenaRisk software.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman Fenton
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351978969
Total Pages : 672 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman Fenton and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-09-03 with total page 672 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

Author : Norman E. Fenton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780367803018
Total Pages : 493 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by : Norman E. Fenton

Download or read book Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks written by Norman E. Fenton and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: IdiomIdioms to Deal with the Key Notions of "Motive" and "Opportunity"Idiom for Modeling Dependency between Different Pieces of EvidenceAlibi Evidence IdiomPutting it All Together: Vole ExampleUsing BNs to Expose Further Fallacies of Legal ReasoningSummaryFurther ReadingAppendix A: The Basics of CountingAppendix B: The Algebra of Node Probability TablesAppendix C: Junction Tree AlgorithmAppendix D: Dynamic DiscretizationAppendix E: Statistical Distributions.

Bayesian Decision Analysis

Author : Jim Q. Smith
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139491113
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Decision Analysis by : Jim Q. Smith

Download or read book Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-09-23 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.

Bayesian Networks

Author : Marco Scutari
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000410382
Total Pages : 275 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Networks by : Marco Scutari

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Marco Scutari and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2021-07-28 with total page 275 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the material step-by-step starting from meaningful examples Steps detailed with R code in the spirit of reproducible research Real world data analyses from a Science paper reproduced and explained in detail Examples span a variety of fields across social and life sciences Overview of available software in and outside R

Foundations of Risk Analysis

Author : Terje Aven
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470871237
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Foundations of Risk Analysis by : Terje Aven

Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

Bayesian Networks

Author : Olivier Pourret
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470994542
Total Pages : 446 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (945 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Networks by : Olivier Pourret

Download or read book Bayesian Networks written by Olivier Pourret and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-04-30 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis

Author : Anca M. Hanea
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030464741
Total Pages : 503 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis by : Anca M. Hanea

Download or read book Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.

Network Meta-Analysis for Decision-Making

Author : Sofia Dias
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118647505
Total Pages : 484 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Network Meta-Analysis for Decision-Making by : Sofia Dias

Download or read book Network Meta-Analysis for Decision-Making written by Sofia Dias and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-03-19 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A practical guide to network meta-analysis with examples and code In the evaluation of healthcare, rigorous methods of quantitative assessment are necessary to establish which interventions are effective and cost-effective. Often a single study will not provide the answers and it is desirable to synthesise evidence from multiple sources, usually randomised controlled trials. This book takes an approach to evidence synthesis that is specifically intended for decision making when there are two or more treatment alternatives being evaluated, and assumes that the purpose of every synthesis is to answer the question "for this pre-identified population of patients, which treatment is 'best'?" A comprehensive, coherent framework for network meta-analysis (mixed treatment comparisons) is adopted and estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in the freely available software WinBUGS. Each chapter contains worked examples, exercises, solutions and code that may be adapted by readers to apply to their own analyses. This book can be used as an introduction to evidence synthesis and network meta-analysis, its key properties and policy implications. Examples and advanced methods are also presented for the more experienced reader. Methods used throughout this book can be applied consistently: model critique and checking for evidence consistency are emphasised. Methods are based on technical support documents produced for NICE Decision Support Unit, which support the NICE Methods of Technology Appraisal. Code presented is also the basis for the code used by the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Comparisons. Includes extensive carefully worked examples, with thorough explanations of how to set out data for use in WinBUGS and how to interpret the output. Network Meta-Analysis for Decision Making will be of interest to decision makers, medical statisticians, health economists, and anyone involved in Health Technology Assessment including the pharmaceutical industry.

GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Author : Jacek Malczewski
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780471329442
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (294 download)

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Book Synopsis GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis by : Jacek Malczewski

Download or read book GIS and Multicriteria Decision Analysis written by Jacek Malczewski and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1999-04-05 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From selecting sites for new hospitals, schools, and factories, to managing forests and rivers, to creating and maintaining highways and bridges, public and private organizations are often called on to make decisions on geographic questions that involve a multitude of alternatives and often conflicting evaluation criteria. This book presents a formal mechanism for dealing with these situations, capturing the information in a Geographic Information System and processing it to derive optimal recommendations for confronting these complex questions.

Geospatial Challenges in the 21st Century

Author : Kostis Koutsopoulos
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030047504
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Geospatial Challenges in the 21st Century by : Kostis Koutsopoulos

Download or read book Geospatial Challenges in the 21st Century written by Kostis Koutsopoulos and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on 21st century geospatial technologies (GT). It highlights their broad range of capabilities and their essential role in effectively addressing and resolving critical everyday issues, such as environment, sustainability, climate change, urban planning, economy, culture and geopolitics. Featuring chapters written by leading international scientists, it discusses the application of GT tools and demonstrates that the problems requiring such tools transcend national boundaries, cultures, political systems and scientific backgrounds on a global scale. In addition, it enhances readers’ spatial understanding of, and geographical reasoning in connection with, societal issues. The book will appeal to scientists, teachers and students of geography, the earth sciences and related areas, as well as decision-makers interested in the application and capabilities of geospatial technologies and new, spatial methods for addressing important issues.

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design

Author : Patrick A. Ray
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804788
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design by : Patrick A. Ray

Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Science and Decisions

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309120462
Total Pages : 422 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Science and Decisions by : National Research Council

Download or read book Science and Decisions written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-03-24 with total page 422 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition

Author : Andrew Gelman
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1439840954
Total Pages : 677 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (398 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition by : Andrew Gelman

Download or read book Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition written by Andrew Gelman and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 677 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Now in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied approach to analysis using up-to-date Bayesian methods. The authors—all leaders in the statistics community—introduce basic concepts from a data-analytic perspective before presenting advanced methods. Throughout the text, numerous worked examples drawn from real applications and research emphasize the use of Bayesian inference in practice. New to the Third Edition Four new chapters on nonparametric modeling Coverage of weakly informative priors and boundary-avoiding priors Updated discussion of cross-validation and predictive information criteria Improved convergence monitoring and effective sample size calculations for iterative simulation Presentations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, variational Bayes, and expectation propagation New and revised software code The book can be used in three different ways. For undergraduate students, it introduces Bayesian inference starting from first principles. For graduate students, the text presents effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields. For researchers, it provides an assortment of Bayesian methods in applied statistics. Additional materials, including data sets used in the examples, solutions to selected exercises, and software instructions, are available on the book’s web page.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory

Author : Marcel van Oijen
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031163338
Total Pages : 118 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (311 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory by : Marcel van Oijen

Download or read book Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Bayesian Decision Theory written by Marcel van Oijen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-11-23 with total page 118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book shows how risk, defined as the statistical expectation of loss, can be formally decomposed as the product of two terms: hazard probability and system vulnerability. This requires a specific definition of vulnerability that replaces the many fuzzy definitions abounding in the literature. The approach is expanded to more complex risk analysis with three components rather than two, and with various definitions of hazard. Equations are derived to quantify the uncertainty of each risk component and show how the approach relates to Bayesian decision theory. Intended for statisticians, environmental scientists and risk analysts interested in the theory and application of risk analysis, this book provides precise definitions, new theory, and many examples with full computer code. The approach is based on straightforward use of probability theory which brings rigour and clarity. Only a moderate knowledge and understanding of probability theory is expected from the reader.

Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

Author : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118938909
Total Pages : 328 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (189 download)

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Book Synopsis Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis by : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.

Download or read book Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis written by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-02-18 with total page 328 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes: An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment

Author :
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470035498
Total Pages : 2163 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment by :

Download or read book Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment written by and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2008-09-02 with total page 2163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.