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Return Predictability And Stock Market Crashes In A Simple Rational Expectations Model
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Book Synopsis Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model by :
Download or read book Return Predictability and Stock Market Crashes in a Simple Rational Expectations Model written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple rational expectations model of intertemporal asset pricing. It shows that heterogeneous risk aversion of investors is likely to generate declining aggregate relative risk aversion. This leads to predictability of asset returns and high and persistent volatility. Stock market crashes may be observed if relative risk aversion differs strongly across investors. Then aggregate relative risk aversion may sharply increase given a small impairment in fundamentals so that asset prices may strongly decline. Changes in aggregate relative risk aversion may also lead to resistance and support levels as used in technical analysis. For numerical illustration we propose an analytical asset price formula. -- Aggregate relative risk aversion ; Equilibrium asset price processes ; Excess Volatility ; Return predictability ; Stock market crashes
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes, Second Edition written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-08-16 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes by : Harold L. Vogel
Download or read book Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes written by Harold L. Vogel and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-12-17 with total page 619 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations, Speculative Bubbles, and the Stock Market Crash of October 1987 by : Jeremy Hammond
Download or read book Rational Expectations, Speculative Bubbles, and the Stock Market Crash of October 1987 written by Jeremy Hammond and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 108 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics by : Fredj Jawadi
Download or read book Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.
Book Synopsis Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes by : David M. Frankel
Download or read book Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes written by David M. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A theory is developed that explains how the stock market can crash in the absence of news about fundamentals, and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe in a simple (but reasonable) statistical model of stock prices: that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. They predict future volatility adaptively, as a weighted average of past squared price changes. From time to time, the rational traders sharply lower their demand for stocks, causing prices to fall below fundamentals. This raises naive investors' assessment of future volatility. Since naive traders are risk averse, their demand for stocks falls. This lowers the market's risk-bearing ability after the crash. Anticipating this, a rational trader has no incentive to bid up prices on the day of the crash. Unlike other explanations of market crashes, this mechanism is fundamentally asymmetric: the price of stocks cannot exceed fundamentals, so frenzies or bubbles cannot occur.
Download or read book The Market written by Frank Hahn and published by Springer. This book was released on 1992-03-03 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The virtues and failings of market economies are at present widely debated and the outcome of the debate is of practical importance. This book contains essays that address these issues of economic policy ranging from privatisation of industry and financial markets to education and the proposal for an internal market in the health service. Apart from two theoretical pieces, particular markets, and proposals for creating such markets, are studied. The contributors are distinguished specialists in their field of economics and their analysis offers important lessons for social and political philosophy and will generate considerable interest.
Book Synopsis Financial Markets and the Real Economy by : John H. Cochrane
Download or read book Financial Markets and the Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2005 with total page 117 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Book Synopsis Quantitative Analysis of Large Stock Market Crashes by : Victor Odour
Download or read book Quantitative Analysis of Large Stock Market Crashes written by Victor Odour and published by Grin Publishing. This book was released on 2014-02 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Document from the year 2011 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: A, California State University, East Bay, language: English, abstract: The objective of this study is to structure a dependable model to forecast the timing of entry and exit from the stock markets by using multivariate linear regression analysis. The study uses major macroeconomic indicators such CPI, PPI, GDP, MEI as independent variables and the S&P 500 index value as the dependent variable. The sample consists of 30 years of monthly data. This study includes four different loss scenarios in the S&P 500 index value and analyzes the data to see if the losses can be absorbed or if further losses will occur. This report discusses the practical implications of using regression analysis and how it is used to predict the market movements. This paper concludes that our regression model can help an investor to anticipate market movements and thus make appropriate buy and sell decisions.
Book Synopsis On the Possibility of Stock Market Crashes in the Absence of Portfolio Insurance by : Gadi Barlevy
Download or read book On the Possibility of Stock Market Crashes in the Absence of Portfolio Insurance written by Gadi Barlevy and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics by : M. Hashem Pesaran
Download or read book Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics written by M. Hashem Pesaran and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 1095 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is concerned with recent developments in time series and panel data techniques for the analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. It provides a rigorous, nevertheless user-friendly, account of the time series techniques dealing with univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as panel data models. It is distinct from other time series texts in the sense that it also covers panel data models and attempts at a more coherent integration of time series, multivariate analysis, and panel data models. It builds on the author's extensive research in the areas of time series and panel data analysis and covers a wide variety of topics in one volume. Different parts of the book can be used as teaching material for a variety of courses in econometrics. It can also be used as reference manual. It begins with an overview of basic econometric and statistical techniques, and provides an account of stochastic processes, univariate and multivariate time series, tests for unit roots, cointegration, impulse response analysis, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, simultaneous equation models, vector autoregressions, causality, forecasting, multivariate volatility models, panel data models, aggregation and global vector autoregressive models (GVAR). The techniques are illustrated using Microfit 5 (Pesaran and Pesaran, 2009, OUP) with applications to real output, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance by : Adrian R. Bell
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance written by Adrian R. Bell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples. Written by international experts in their field, the unique approach describes a question or issue in finance and then demonstrates the methodologies that may be used to solve it. All of the techniques described are used to address real problems rather than being presented for their own sake, and the areas of application have been carefully selected so that a broad range of methodological approaches can be covered. The Handbook is aimed primarily at doctoral researchers and academics who are engaged in conducting original empirical research in finance. In addition, the book will be useful to researchers in the financial markets and also advanced Masters-level students who are writing dissertations.
Author :Jørgen Vitting Andersen Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3642419445 Total Pages :194 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (424 download)
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Socio-Finance by : Jørgen Vitting Andersen
Download or read book An Introduction to Socio-Finance written by Jørgen Vitting Andersen and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This introductory text is devoted to exposing the underlying nature of price formation in financial markets as a predominantly sociological phenomenon that relates individual decision-making to emergent and co-evolving social and financial structures. Two different levels of this sociological influence are considered: First, we examine how price formation results from the social dynamics of interacting individuals, where interaction occurs either through the price or by direct communication. Then the same processes are revisited and examined at the level of larger groups of individuals. In this book, models of both levels of socio-finance are presented, and it is shown, in particular, how complexity theory provides the conceptual and methodological tools needed to understand and describe such phenomena. Accordingly, readers are first given a broad introduction to the standard economic theory of rational financial markets and will come to understand its shortcomings with the help of concrete examples. Complexity theory is then introduced in order to properly account for behavioral decision-making and match the observed market dynamics. This book is conceived as a primer for newcomers to the field, as well as for practitioners seeking new insights into the field of complexity science applied to socio-economic systems in general, and financial markets and price formation in particular.
Book Synopsis Why Stock Markets Crash by : Didier Sornette
Download or read book Why Stock Markets Crash written by Didier Sornette and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-03-21 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Book Synopsis The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics by :
Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics written by and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 7493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Book Synopsis Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis by : Mehmet Odekon
Download or read book Booms and Busts: An Encyclopedia of Economic History from the First Stock Market Crash of 1792 to the Current Global Economic Crisis written by Mehmet Odekon and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2015-03-17 with total page 1020 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This timely and authoritative set explores three centuries of good times and hard times in major economies throughout the world. More than 400 signed articles cover events from Tulipmania during the 1630s to the U.S. federal stimulus package of 2009, and introduce readers to underlying concepts, recurring themes, major institutions, and notable figures. Written in a clear, accessible style, "Booms and Busts" provides vital insight and perspective for students, teachers, librarians, and the general public - anyone interested in understanding the historical precedents, causes, and effects of the global economic crisis. Special features include a chronology of major booms and busts through history, a glossary of economic terms, a guide to further research, an appendix of primary documents, a topic finder, and a comprehensive index. It features 1,050 pages; three volumes; 8-1/2" X 11"; topic finder; photos; chronology; glossary; primary documents; bibliography; and, index.
Book Synopsis A History of the Theory of Investments by : Mark Rubinstein
Download or read book A History of the Theory of Investments written by Mark Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-02 with total page 393 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This exceptional book provides valuable insights into the evolution of financial economics from the perspective of a major player." -- Robert Litzenberger, Hopkinson Professor Emeritus of Investment Banking, Univ. of Pennsylvania; and retired partner, Goldman Sachs A History of the Theory of Investments is about ideas -- where they come from, how they evolve, and why they are instrumental in preparing the future for new ideas. Author Mark Rubinstein writes history by rewriting history. In unearthing long-forgotten books and journals, he corrects past oversights to assign credit where credit is due and assembles a remarkable history that is unquestionable in its accuracy and unprecedented in its power. Exploring key turning points in the development of investment theory, through the critical prism of award-winning investment theory and asset pricing expert Mark Rubinstein, this groundbreaking resource follows the chronological development of investment theory over centuries, exploring the inner workings of great theoretical breakthroughs while pointing out contributions made by often unsung contributors to some of investment's most influential ideas and models.
