Author : Weifeng Zhou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (123 download)
Book Synopsis Resilience Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Scenarios by : Weifeng Zhou
Download or read book Resilience Analysis of Nuclear Fuel Cycle Scenarios written by Weifeng Zhou and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nuclear fuel cycle systems, composed of reactors, various fuels, and different cycle facilities, are complex and in constant evolution. Thanks to their abilities to make projections of industrial strategies and to assess the associated impacts on nuclear fuel cycle systems, nuclear fuel cycle scenarios are considered as a powerful tool for decision-making analyses. Scenario studies assist decision-makers in identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different strategies for a nuclear fleet evolution and then proposing possible evolution trajectories for the nuclear industry according to constraints from physics, economics, industry, etc.However, scenario studies are usually subject to different kinds of uncertainties, especially the so-called “deep uncertainty.” This concept refers to “unknown unknowns,” which scenario study results are unsuited to address. Indeed, under the impact of deep uncertainty, i.e., disruptions, the trajectories proposed by the scenario studies can become invalid: they do not satisfy the scenario constraints anymore.In order to make the trajectories valid again after disruption due to uncertainty, the first possibility is to study the resistance strategy. The resistance strategy consists of finding scenario trajectories that remain valid under the impact of uncertainty without exogenous readjustments of trajectories. However, the resistance capabilities of scenarios are limited: resistance is only adapted to uncertainties with small impact, while the impact of deep uncertainty is usually strong.As a complementary solution to the resistance strategy, we propose using resilience strategies. The resilience strategies consist of using predesigned measures, called “levers,” to readjust the scenario trajectory when the resistance strategy is insufficient. We aim to use the effect of the exogenous readjustments of trajectories, which are introduced through the levers, to counterbalance the impact of disruption and remain the trajectory valid. To evaluate the resilience of scenarios, we developed a resilience analysis framework, based on the start-of-the-art SUR (Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction) algorithm.We applied the developed resilience strategy to two scenario problems in which a simplified French nuclear fleet with uncertain power reduction is considered. To define the validity of trajectory, we imposed five constraints about the reprocessing plant utilization ratio, plutonium separation, plutonium content in MOX fuel, and spent fuel storage. In each problem, we gave a prior trajectory supposed as a result of a scenario study with a hypothesis to keep the installed power constant in the future. We assumed that following the disruption of the study context, the total electricity power is disrupted and reduced in the future. The results showed that the prior trajectories in both problems are resilient for the assumed disruptions: it is possible to keep the prior trajectories valid by readjusting the reprocessing and the MOX fuel loadings in reactors. Such results demonstrate the evolutions of the nuclear fleet in the prior trajectories are flexible in front of the disruption of total electricity power.
