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Residual Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Book Synopsis Predecisional Processes in Decision Making by :
Download or read book Predecisional Processes in Decision Making written by and published by . This book was released on 1964 with total page 212 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis Primer on Risk Analysis by : Charles Yoe
Download or read book Primer on Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-01-18 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner, tackling the question, "What is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of many risk dialects into serviceable definitions, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk management and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all disciplines. New in this edition is an expanded risk management emphasis that includes an overview chapter on enterprise risk management and a chapter on decision making under uncertainty designed to help decision makers use the results of risk analysis in practical ways to improve decisions and their outcomes. This book will empower you to enter the world of risk management in your own domain of expertise by providing you with practical, insightful, useful and adaptable knowledge of risk analysis science including risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. Features: Answers the fundamental question, "What is Risk Analysis?" Presents the tasks of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication in a straightforward, conceptual manner Responds to the continuing evolution of risk science and addresses the language of risk as it continues to evolve Expands the risk management emphasis with a new chapter to serve private industry and a growing public sector interest in the growing practice of enterprise risk management Includes a new chapter on decision making under uncertainty provides practical guidance and ideas for using risk science to improve decisions and their outcomes Features an expanded set of examples of the risk process that demonstrate the growing applications of risk analysis This book is suitable for executives, professionals and students who seek a fundamental understanding of risk management, risk assessment, and risk communication. A more detailed examination of this topic, suitable for practitioners from any discipline as well as students and professionals who aspire to become experts in the practice of risk analysis science, is found in Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, Second Edition, ISBN: 978-1-138-47820-6.
Book Synopsis Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty by : Etienne de Rocquigny
Download or read book Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-12 with total page 483 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.
Book Synopsis Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty by : Salem Benferhat
Download or read book Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty written by Salem Benferhat and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2001-08-29 with total page 832 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2001, held in Toulouse, France in September 2001. The 68 revised full papers presented together with three invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from over a hundred submissions. The book offers topical sections on decision theory, partially observable Markov decision processes, decision-making, coherent probabilities, Bayesian networks, learning causal networks, graphical representation of uncertainty, imprecise probabilities, belief functions, fuzzy sets and rough sets, possibility theory, merging, belief revision and preferences, inconsistency handling, default logic, logic programming, etc.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy by : S.O. Funtowicz
Download or read book Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy written by S.O. Funtowicz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains the notational system NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) and applies it to several examples from the environmental sciences. The authors are now making further extensions of NUSAP, including an algorithm for the propagation of quality-grades through models used in risk and safety studies. They are also developing the concept of `Post-normal Science', in which quality assurance of information requires the participation of `extended peer-communities' lying outside the traditional expertise.
Book Synopsis The Controlled Economy (Routledge Revivals) by : James E. Meade
Download or read book The Controlled Economy (Routledge Revivals) written by James E. Meade and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-11-12 with total page 379 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1971 this volume applies the tools of static and of dynamic analysis (outlined in The Stationary Economy and The Growing Economy) to the control of a dynamic economy. This involves a discussion of subjects such as the theory of indicative planning, and the planning by the government of its monetary, fiscal, and incomes policies for the purposes of the short-run stabilization of the economy and of ensuring the best long-run use of the community’s resources. Special emphasis is laid on the planning of such policies in conditions in which many future events remain inevitably uncertain. This book considers these issues in relation to a competitive, free-enterprise economy; and little or no reference is made to problems of monopoly or of distinctions between social and private costs and benefits, due to indivisibilities and externalities in economic life.
Book Synopsis The Cognitive Mechanics of Economic Development and Institutional Change by : Bertin Martens
Download or read book The Cognitive Mechanics of Economic Development and Institutional Change written by Bertin Martens and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-02-05 with total page 426 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book seeks to explain long-term economic development and institutional change in terms of the cognitive features of human learning and communication processes. Martens links individual cognitive processes to macroeconomic growth theories, including economies of scale and scope, and to theories of institutional development based on asymmetric i
Book Synopsis The Beauty and the Boost: A Higgs Boson Tale by : Brian Moser
Download or read book The Beauty and the Boost: A Higgs Boson Tale written by Brian Moser and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Precision measurements of the Higgs boson’s properties are a powerful tool to look for deviations from the predictions of the Standard Model (SM) of particle physics. The 139/fb of proton-proton collision data which have been collected by the ATLAS experiment during Run 2 of the LHC, offer an opportunity to investigate rare Higgs-boson topologies, which are particularly sensitive to new physics scenarios but experimentally difficult to access. Several such measurements, which target Higgs-boson decays to heavy-flavour quarks, as well as their combinations are presented in this thesis. A novel analysis that measures Higgs-boson production in association with a heavy vector boson V (VH, with V=W,Z) at high energies is presented. Dedicated Higgs-boson reconstruction techniques are applied to reconstruct the highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs-boson decays into pairs of bottom quarks. The measurement is subsequently combined with a VH cross-section measurement at low and intermediate pT(V) to provide a differential cross-section measurement in kinematic fiducial volumes over the largest possible pT(V) range. All cross-section measurements agree with the SM predictions within relative uncertainties that range from 30% to 300%. The results are furthermore interpreted as limits on the parameters of a SM effective field theory. Finally, a combination of measurements of Higgs decays to heavy-flavour quarks is used to experimentally determine that the Higgs-boson coupling to charm quarks is weaker than to bottom quarks, as predicted by the SM. The target audience for the thesis are physicists and physics students, in particular those with a background in high energy physics.
Book Synopsis Strategic Communication by : Kevin Marsh
Download or read book Strategic Communication written by Kevin Marsh and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2017-11-24 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A handbook for the study of strategic communication in the fields of politics, diplomacy and civill society. Contains theory, practice and case studies.
Book Synopsis Science and Risk Regulation in International Law by : Jacqueline Peel
Download or read book Science and Risk Regulation in International Law written by Jacqueline Peel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-11-04 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The regulation of risk is a preoccupation of contemporary global society and an increasingly important part of international law in areas ranging from environmental protection to international trade. This book examines a key aspect of international risk regulation - the way in which science and technical expertise are used in reaching decisions about how to assess and manage global risks. An interdisciplinary analysis is employed to illuminate how science has been used in international legal processes and global institutions such as the World Trade Organization. Case studies of risk regulation in international law are drawn from diverse fields including environmental treaty law, international trade law, food safety regulation and standard-setting, biosafety and chemicals regulation. The book also addresses the important question of the most appropriate balance between science and non-scientific inputs in different areas of international risk regulation.
Book Synopsis Planning and Executing Credible Experiments by : Robert J. Moffat
Download or read book Planning and Executing Credible Experiments written by Robert J. Moffat and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-22 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covers experiment planning, execution, analysis, and reporting This single-source resource guides readers in planning and conducting credible experiments for engineering, science, industrial processes, agriculture, and business. The text takes experimenters all the way through conducting a high-impact experiment, from initial conception, through execution of the experiment, to a defensible final report. It prepares the reader to anticipate the choices faced during each stage. Filled with real-world examples from engineering science and industry, Planning and Executing Credible Experiments: A Guidebook for Engineering, Science, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, and Business offers chapters that challenge experimenters at each stage of planning and execution and emphasizes uncertainty analysis as a design tool in addition to its role for reporting results. Tested over decades at Stanford University and internationally, the text employs two powerful, free, open-source software tools: GOSSET to optimize experiment design, and R for statistical computing and graphics. A website accompanies the text, providing additional resources and software downloads. A comprehensive guide to experiment planning, execution, and analysis Leads from initial conception, through the experiment’s launch, to final report Prepares the reader to anticipate the choices faced throughout an experiment Hones the motivating question Employs principles and techniques from Design of Experiments (DoE) Selects experiment designs to obtain the most information from fewer experimental runs Offers chapters that propose questions that an experimenter will need to ask and answer during each stage of planning and execution Demonstrates how uncertainty analysis guides and strengthens each stage Includes examples from real-life industrial experiments Accompanied by a website hosting open-source software Planning and Executing Credible Experiments is an excellent resource for graduates and senior undergraduates—as well as professionals—across a wide variety of engineering disciplines.
Book Synopsis Comprehensive Remote Sensing by : Shunlin Liang
Download or read book Comprehensive Remote Sensing written by Shunlin Liang and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2017-11-08 with total page 3183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive Remote Sensing, Nine Volume Set covers all aspects of the topic, with each volume edited by well-known scientists and contributed to by frontier researchers. It is a comprehensive resource that will benefit both students and researchers who want to further their understanding in this discipline. The field of remote sensing has quadrupled in size in the past two decades, and increasingly draws in individuals working in a diverse set of disciplines ranging from geographers, oceanographers, and meteorologists, to physicists and computer scientists. Researchers from a variety of backgrounds are now accessing remote sensing data, creating an urgent need for a one-stop reference work that can comprehensively document the development of remote sensing, from the basic principles, modeling and practical algorithms, to various applications. Fully comprehensive coverage of this rapidly growing discipline, giving readers a detailed overview of all aspects of Remote Sensing principles and applications Contains ‘Layered content’, with each article beginning with the basics and then moving on to more complex concepts Ideal for advanced undergraduates and academic researchers Includes case studies that illustrate the practical application of remote sensing principles, further enhancing understanding
Book Synopsis Robust Automatic Speech Recognition by : Jinyu Li
Download or read book Robust Automatic Speech Recognition written by Jinyu Li and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2015-10-30 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Robust Automatic Speech Recognition: A Bridge to Practical Applications establishes a solid foundation for automatic speech recognition that is robust against acoustic environmental distortion. It provides a thorough overview of classical and modern noise-and reverberation robust techniques that have been developed over the past thirty years, with an emphasis on practical methods that have been proven to be successful and which are likely to be further developed for future applications.The strengths and weaknesses of robustness-enhancing speech recognition techniques are carefully analyzed. The book covers noise-robust techniques designed for acoustic models which are based on both Gaussian mixture models and deep neural networks. In addition, a guide to selecting the best methods for practical applications is provided.The reader will: - Gain a unified, deep and systematic understanding of the state-of-the-art technologies for robust speech recognition - Learn the links and relationship between alternative technologies for robust speech recognition - Be able to use the technology analysis and categorization detailed in the book to guide future technology development - Be able to develop new noise-robust methods in the current era of deep learning for acoustic modeling in speech recognition - The first book that provides a comprehensive review on noise and reverberation robust speech recognition methods in the era of deep neural networks - Connects robust speech recognition techniques to machine learning paradigms with rigorous mathematical treatment - Provides elegant and structural ways to categorize and analyze noise-robust speech recognition techniques - Written by leading researchers who have been actively working on the subject matter in both industrial and academic organizations for many years
Book Synopsis Collected Papers James Meade V2 by : Susan Howson
Download or read book Collected Papers James Meade V2 written by Susan Howson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-23 with total page 492 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First Published in 2004. This is the second of three volumes of an edition of Professor Meade’s papers. As with the first volume (The Collected Papers of James Meade, Vol. I: Employment and Inflation, 1988), it includes both previously published papers and hitherto unpublished memoranda written during Meade’s period of government service, 1940-7, in the Economic Section of the Cabinet Offices, of which he was Director 1946-7.
Book Synopsis Navigating Strategic Decisions by : John E. Triantis
Download or read book Navigating Strategic Decisions written by John E. Triantis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions. Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to: Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.
