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Regime Switching Factor Models And Nowcasting With Big Data
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Book Synopsis Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data by : Omer Faruk Akbal
Download or read book Regime-Switching Factor Models and Nowcasting with Big Data written by Omer Faruk Akbal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-06 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for regime-switching dynamic factor models provides satisfactory performance relative to other estimation methods and delivers a good trade-off between accuracy and speed, which makes it especially useful for large dimensional data. Unlike traditional numerical maximization approaches, this methodology benefits from closed-form solutions for parameter estimation, enhancing its practicality for real-time applications and historical data exercises with focus on frequent updates. In a nowcasting application to vintage US data, I study the information content and relative performance of regime-switching model after each data releases in a fifteen year period, which was only feasible due to the time efficiency of the proposed estimation methodology. While existing literature has already acknowledged the performance improvement of nowcasting models under regime-switching, this paper shows that the superior nowcasting performance observed particularly when key economic indicators are released. In a backcasting exercise, I show that the model can closely match the recession starting and ending dates of the NBER despite having less information than actual committee meetings, where the fit between actual dates and model estimates becomes more apparent with the additional available information and recession end dates are fully covered with a lag of three to six months. Given that the EM algorithm proposed in this paper is suitable for various regime-switching configurations, this paper provides economists and policymakers with a valuable tool for conducting comprehensive analyses, ranging from point estimates to information decomposition and persistence of recessions in larger datasets.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Siem Jan Koopman
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2016-01-08 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Book Synopsis State-space Models with Regime Switching by : Chang-Jin Kim
Download or read book State-space Models with Regime Switching written by Chang-Jin Kim and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Both state-space models and Markov switching models have been highly productive paths for empirical research in macroeconomics and finance. This book presents recent advances in econometric methods that make feasible the estimation of models that have both features. One approach, in the classical framework, approximates the likelihood function; the other, in the Bayesian framework, uses Gibbs-sampling to simulate posterior distributions from data.The authors present numerous applications of these approaches in detail: decomposition of time series into trend and cycle, a new index of coincident economic indicators, approaches to modeling monetary policy uncertainty, Friedman's "plucking" model of recessions, the detection of turning points in the business cycle and the question of whether booms and recessions are duration-dependent, state-space models with heteroskedastic disturbances, fads and crashes in financial markets, long-run real exchange rates, and mean reversion in asset returns.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Factor Models by : Jörg Breitung
Download or read book Dynamic Factor Models written by Jörg Breitung and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data by : Peter Fuleky
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data written by Peter Fuleky and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-11-28 with total page 716 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.
Book Synopsis Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists by : Maximo Camacho
Download or read book Short-Term Forecasting for Empirical Economists written by Maximo Camacho and published by . This book was released on 2013-11-01 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Short-term Forecasting for Empirical Economists seeks to close the gap between research and applied short-term forecasting. The authors review some of the key theoretical results and empirical findings in the recent literature on short-term forecasting, and translate these findings into economically meaningful techniques to facilitate their widespread application to compute short-term forecasts in economics, and to monitor the ongoing business cycle developments in real time.
Book Synopsis The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance by : Don Harding
Download or read book The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance written by Don Harding and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-07-26 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis highlighted the impact on macroeconomic outcomes of recurrent events like business and financial cycles, highs and lows in volatility, and crashes and recessions. At the most basic level, such recurrent events can be summarized using binary indicators showing if the event will occur or not. These indicators are constructed either directly from data or indirectly through models. Because they are constructed, they have different properties than those arising in microeconometrics, and how one is to use them depends a lot on the method of construction. This book presents the econometric methods necessary for the successful modeling of recurrent events, providing valuable insights for policymakers, empirical researchers, and theorists. It explains why it is inherently difficult to forecast the onset of a recession in a way that provides useful guidance for active stabilization policy, with the consequence that policymakers should place more emphasis on making the economy robust to recessions. The book offers a range of econometric tools and techniques that researchers can use to measure recurrent events, summarize their properties, and evaluate how effectively economic and statistical models capture them. These methods also offer insights for developing models that are consistent with observed financial and real cycles. This book is an essential resource for students, academics, and researchers at central banks and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund.
Book Synopsis Alternative Economic Indicators by : C. James Hueng
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Entropy Application for Forecasting by : Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez
Download or read book Entropy Application for Forecasting written by Ana Jesus Lopez-Menendez and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows the potential of entropy and information theory in forecasting, including both theoretical developments and empirical applications. The contents cover a great diversity of topics, such as the aggregation and combination of individual forecasts, the comparison of forecasting performance, and the debate concerning the tradeoff between complexity and accuracy. Analyses of forecasting uncertainty, robustness, and inconsistency are also included, as are proposals for new forecasting approaches. The proposed methods encompass a variety of time series techniques (e.g., ARIMA, VAR, state space models) as well as econometric methods and machine learning algorithms. The empirical contents include both simulated experiments and real-world applications focusing on GDP, M4-Competition series, confidence and industrial trend surveys, and stock exchange composite indices, among others. In summary, this collection provides an engaging insight into entropy applications for forecasting, offering an interesting overview of the current situation and suggesting possibilities for further research in this field.
Book Synopsis Time Series Econometrics by : Pierre Perron
Download or read book Time Series Econometrics written by Pierre Perron and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part I. Unit roots and trend breaks -- Part II. Structural change
Book Synopsis Bayesian Econometric Methods by : Joshua Chan
Download or read book Bayesian Econometric Methods written by Joshua Chan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-15 with total page 491 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Illustrates Bayesian theory and application through a series of exercises in question and answer format.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Book Synopsis Dissecting the Cycle by : Allan Donald Harding
Download or read book Dissecting the Cycle written by Allan Donald Harding and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis World Development Report 2016 by : World Bank Group
Download or read book World Development Report 2016 written by World Bank Group and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2016-01-14 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Digital technologies are spreading rapidly, but digital dividends--the broader benefits of faster growth, more jobs, and better services--are not. If more than 40 percent of adults in East Africa pay their utility bills using a mobile phone, why can’t others around the world do the same? If 8 million entrepreneurs in China--one third of them women--can use an e-commerce platform to export goods to 120 countries, why can’t entrepreneurs elsewhere achieve the same global reach? And if India can provide unique digital identification to 1 billion people in five years, and thereby reduce corruption by billions of dollars, why can’t other countries replicate its success? Indeed, what’s holding back countries from realizing the profound and transformational effects that digital technologies are supposed to deliver? Two main reasons. First, nearly 60 percent of the world’s population are still offline and can’t participate in the digital economy in any meaningful way. Second, and more important, the benefits of digital technologies can be offset by growing risks. Startups can disrupt incumbents, but not when vested interests and regulatory uncertainty obstruct competition and the entry of new firms. Employment opportunities may be greater, but not when the labor market is polarized. The internet can be a platform for universal empowerment, but not when it becomes a tool for state control and elite capture. The World Development Report 2016 shows that while the digital revolution has forged ahead, its 'analog complements'--the regulations that promote entry and competition, the skills that enable workers to access and then leverage the new economy, and the institutions that are accountable to citizens--have not kept pace. And when these analog complements to digital investments are absent, the development impact can be disappointing. What, then, should countries do? They should formulate digital development strategies that are much broader than current information and communication technology (ICT) strategies. They should create a policy and institutional environment for technology that fosters the greatest benefits. In short, they need to build a strong analog foundation to deliver digital dividends to everyone, everywhere.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : G. Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by G. Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2006-07-14 with total page 1071 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Section headings in this handbook include: 'Forecasting Methodology; 'Forecasting Models'; 'Forecasting with Different Data Structures'; and 'Applications of Forecasting Methods.'.
Download or read book U-MIDAS written by Claudia Foroni and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by David Hendry and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive—this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve’s record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
