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Author : Ravi Bansal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)
Download or read book Regime-shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ravi Bansal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Regime-shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and Business Cycle written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ravi Bansal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Regime-Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine various dynamic term structure models for monthly US Treasury yields from 1964 to 2001. Of particular interest is the predictability of bond excess returns. Recent evidence indicates that using multiple forward rates can sharply predict future excess returns on bonds; the R2 of this predictability regression can be as high as 30%. In addition, the projection coefficients in these predictability regressions exhibit a tent shaped pattern that relates to the maturity of the forward rate. This dimension of the data in conjunction with the transition dynamics of bond yields (i.e., conditional volatility and cross-correlation of bond yields) poses an serious challenge to term structure models. In this paper we present and estimate a regime-shifts term structure model - our findings show that this model can account for all aspects of the predictability regression and the transition dynamics of yields. Alternative models, such as, affine factor models cannot account for these features of the data. We find that the regimes in the model are related to the NBER business cycle indicator.
Author : Martin D.D. Evans
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Regime Shifts, Risk and the Term Structure written by Martin D.D. Evans and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics of the state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state variables and Peso problems through regime-switching. When the model is estimated using real and nominal yields from the U.K., I find that Peso problems emanating from instability in inflation have a significant impact on the nominal term structure. Peso problems affect (i) the sample predictability of excess returns, (ii) nominal term premia, and (iii) the inflation risk premia linking real and nominal yields with expected inflation.
Author : Ravi Bansal
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 70 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts written by Ravi Bansal and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Wei Yang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Regime-Shift Risk written by Wei Yang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consumption growth data strongly favor a two-regime specification. The high volatility, low growth regime is associated with deep recessions: the Great Depression, the recession of 1937-1938, the post-war recession of 1945, and the most recent financial crisis. I develop parsimonious models in which (i) consumption and dividend growth follow regime-switching dynamics, (ii) the regime characteristics are consistent with the empirical evidence from the consumption growth data, and (iii) the risks associated with regime shifts are priced in asset markets. The models explain major regime-dependent asset market phenomena. Regime-shift risk exhibits the dominant influence on asset prices: It generates a high equity premium, and also induces time-varying risk premiums and explains the return predictability.
Author : Qiang Dai
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Regime Shifts in a Dynamic Term Structure Model of U.S. Treasury Bond Yields written by Qiang Dai and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article develops and empirically implements an arbitrage-free, dynamic term structure model with priced factor and regime-shift risks. The risk factors are assumed to follow a discrete-time Gaussian process, and regime shifts are governed by a discrete-time Markov process with state-dependent transition probabilities. This model gives closed-form solutions for zero-coupon bond prices, an analytic representation of the likelihood function for bond yields, and a natural decomposition of expected excess returns to components corresponding to regime-shift and factor risks. Using monthly data on U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields, we show a critical role of priced, state-dependent regime-shift risks in capturing the time variations in expected excess returns, and document notable differences in the behaviors of the factor risk component of the expected returns across high and low volatility regimes. Additionally, the state dependence of the regime-switching probabilities is shown to capture an interesting asymmetry in the cyclical behavior of interest rates. The shapes of the term structure of volatility of bond yield changes are also very different across regimes, with the well-known hump being largely a low-volatility regime phenomenon.
Author : Rogemar S. Mamon
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1489974423
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (899 download)
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models in Finance written by Rogemar S. Mamon and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-05-14 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the groundbreaking research of Harry Markowitz into the application of operations research to the optimization of investment portfolios, finance has been one of the most important areas of application of operations research. The use of hidden Markov models (HMMs) has become one of the hottest areas of research for such applications to finance. This handbook offers systemic applications of different methodologies that have been used for decision making solutions to the financial problems of global markets. As the follow-up to the authors’ Hidden Markov Models in Finance (2007), this offers the latest research developments and applications of HMMs to finance and other related fields. Amongst the fields of quantitative finance and actuarial science that will be covered are: interest rate theory, fixed-income instruments, currency market, annuity and insurance policies with option-embedded features, investment strategies, commodity markets, energy, high-frequency trading, credit risk, numerical algorithms, financial econometrics and operational risk. Hidden Markov Models in Finance: Further Developments and Applications, Volume II presents recent applications and case studies in finance and showcases the formulation of emerging potential applications of new research over the book’s 11 chapters. This will benefit not only researchers in financial modeling, but also others in fields such as engineering, the physical sciences and social sciences. Ultimately the handbook should prove to be a valuable resource to dynamic researchers interested in taking full advantage of the power and versatility of HMMs in accurately and efficiently capturing many of the processes in the financial market.
Author : Mr.Richard Munclinger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455211931
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book Exploration of the Brazilian Term Structure in a Hidden Markov Framework written by Mr.Richard Munclinger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model's characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high volatility regime and a low level and low volatility regime. Both regimes are persistent and are explained by the level and the slope of the term structure. The model is estimated using a Bayesian MCM algorithm that produces consistent standard errors and a reliable method for testing the differences between the model parameters.
Author : David M. Drukker
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1780525265
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (85 download)
Download or read book Missing Data Methods written by David M. Drukker and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2011-11-30 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Part of the "Advances in Econometrics" series, this title contains chapters covering topics such as: Missing-Data Imputation in Nonstationary Panel Data Models; Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance; Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Sample Selection Models Using Gaussian Copulas; and, Consistent Estimation and Orthogonality.
Author : George Yin
Publisher : American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN 13 : 0821834126
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (218 download)
Download or read book Mathematics of Finance written by George Yin and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2004 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contains papers based on talks given at the first AMS-IMS-SIAM Joint Summer Research Conference on Mathematics of Finance held at Snowbird. This book includes such topics as modeling, estimation, optimization, control, and risk assessment and management. It is suitable for students interested in mathematical finance.
Author : Adrian R. Bell
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0857936093
Total Pages : 494 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (579 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance written by Adrian R. Bell and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2013-01-01 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This impressive Handbook presents the quantitative techniques that are commonly employed in empirical finance research together with real-world, state-of-the-art research examples. Written by international experts in their field, the unique approach describes a question or issue in finance and then demonstrates the methodologies that may be used to solve it. All of the techniques described are used to address real problems rather than being presented for their own sake, and the areas of application have been carefully selected so that a broad range of methodological approaches can be covered. The Handbook is aimed primarily at doctoral researchers and academics who are engaged in conducting original empirical research in finance. In addition, the book will be useful to researchers in the financial markets and also advanced Masters-level students who are writing dissertations.
Author : Don H. Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book An Arbitrage-free Three-factor Term Structure Model and the Recent Behavior of Long-term Yields and Distant-horizon Forward Rates written by Don H. Kim and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper reviews a simple three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model estimated by Federal Reserve Board staff and reports results obtained from fitting this model to U.S. Treasury yields since 1990. The model ascribes a large portion of the decline in long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates since the middle of 2004 to a fall in term premiums. A variant of the model that incorporates inflation data indicates that about two-thirds of the decline in nominal term premiums owes to a fall in real term premiums, but estimated compensation for inflation risk has diminished as well.
Author : Peter Hackl
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662068249
Total Pages : 377 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Economic Structural Change written by Peter Hackl and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural change is a fundamental concept in economic model building. Statistics and econometrics provide the tools for identification of change, for estimating the onset of a change, for assessing its extent and relevance. Statistics and econometrics also have de veloped models that are suitable for picturing the data-generating process in the presence of structural change by assimilating the changes or due to the robustness to its presence. Important subjects in this context are forecasting methods. The need for such methods became obvious when, as a consequence of the oil price shock, the results of empirical analyses suddenly seemed to be much less reliable than before. Nowadays, economists agree that models with fixed structure that picture reality over longer periods are illusions. An example for less dramatic causes than the oil price shock with similarly profound effects is economic growth and its impacts on the economic system. Indeed, economic growth was a motivating concept for this volume. In 1983, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxen burg/ Austria initiated an ambitious project on "Economic Growth and Structural Change".
Author : John M. Roberts
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics written by John M. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Since the early 1980s, the United States economy has changed in some important ways: Inflation now rises considerably less when unemployment falls and the volatility of output and inflation have fallen sharply. This paper examines whether changes in monetary policy can account for these phenomena. The results suggest that changes in the parameters and shock volatility of monetary policy reaction functions can account for most or all of the change in the inflation-unemployment relationship. As in other work, monetary-policy changes can explain only a small portion of the output growth volatility decline. However, changes in policy can explain a large proportion of the reduction in the volatility of the output gap. In addition, a broader concept of monetary-policy changes--one that includes improvements in the central bank's ability to measure potential output--enhances the ability of monetary policy to account for the changes in the economy"--Abstract.
Author : Constantin Zopounidis
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118738187
Total Pages : 455 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (187 download)
Download or read book Quantitative Financial Risk Management written by Constantin Zopounidis and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2015-05-18 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Comprehensive Guide to Quantitative Financial Risk Management Written by an international team of experts in the field, Quantitative Financial Risk Management: Theory and Practice provides an invaluable guide to the most recent and innovative research on the topics of financial risk management, portfolio management, credit risk modeling, and worldwide financial markets. This comprehensive text reviews the tools and concepts of financial management that draw on the practices of economics, accounting, statistics, econometrics, mathematics, stochastic processes, and computer science and technology. Using the information found in Quantitative Financial Risk Management can help professionals to better manage, monitor, and measure risk, especially in today's uncertain world of globalization, market volatility, and geo-political crisis. Quantitative Financial Risk Management delivers the information, tools, techniques, and most current research in the critical field of risk management. This text offers an essential guide for quantitative analysts, financial professionals, and academic scholars.
Author : David Glasner
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136545204
Total Pages : 796 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles and Depressions written by David Glasner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 796 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.
