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Rational Opportunistic Political Business Cycles
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Book Synopsis Rational Opportunistic Political Business Cycles by : Tobias Fritsch
Download or read book Rational Opportunistic Political Business Cycles written by Tobias Fritsch and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2006 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 2,0, Free University of Berlin, language: English, abstract: The current political decisions do not only affect the economy, additionally also future capital stocks and (infra-) structures are significantly influenced. Generally one should keep in mind that natural resources as well as price inflation for produced goods highly depend on the decision whether to consume now or save them for later. One of the most important influence factors for the economical life is the government policy. The trade-off between the focus on present and future welfare (between consuming and saving) is mainly based on political decisions. Thus it is important to address the role of the government and understand how elections and voters might influence the decision of the political parties during their incumbency. This paper describes the motivation of the politicians to influence the voters before the election takes place in order to win. Generally speaking, they use economical instruments (like the Phillips curve, aggregated demand, budgets, etc.) to increase their chance for the next election. However the usage of these instruments produces a downturn shortly after the election; the whole process is called a political business cycle.
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles in a Democracy by : Andrei Horlau
Download or read book Political Business Cycles in a Democracy written by Andrei Horlau and published by . This book was released on 2013-09 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Topic: Globalization, Political Economics, grade: 2,7, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel (Institut fur Sozialwissenschaften), course: Governing the crisis: how democracies deal with adverse economic conditions, language: English, comment: There are few researches which are directly devoted to the role of the political business cycles (PBC) in economic crises. The given term paper contains the research about the implications which are derived from the PBC and stay before political parties during the times of crises. The definition of the PBC, the different concepts of interactions between voters and parties as well as the role of political business cycles in the crises are revealed. This all serve the base for the revealing of the implications for political parties during the crises which depend on the type of the party., abstract: Various economic difficulties and economic crises can be challenges for democratic political systems. In some cases it can lead to social cataclysms and even destruction of political systems. In this connection, different political actors offer different programs in order to solve current socio-economic problems. However, according to the modern economic theory the free market economy develops cyclical, and the period of recession always comes after the recovery. There is the conception of political business cycles, which confirm it. Nevertheless political parties often have to carry out the policies and even take part in elections in conditions of economic crises. In some cases they even have to change their programs or significantly correct them in order to keep their voters. In this way, the problem of this term paper is the following one: what are the implications for political parties if they stand for elections in times of crises and their behavior towards voters is either opportunistic or ideological? In order to give the answer for this ques
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles by : Thomas D. Willett
Download or read book Political Business Cycles written by Thomas D. Willett and published by Duke University Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 554 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "A Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy book." Includes bibliographies and index.
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles in the U.S. by : Michael Gerard Rhodes Carter
Download or read book Political Business Cycles in the U.S. written by Michael Gerard Rhodes Carter and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Timing is All written by Michael W. Klein and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Political business cycle theories predict that the occurrence and outcome of elections affect the timing of business cycle turning points. Opportunistic political business cycle theory predicts that a contraction is more likely to end soon after an election than at other times. Rational partisan political business cycle theory predicts differences in the likelihood of the end of an expansion after an election depending upon the party of newly-elected president. This paper directly tests the effect of elections on the turning points of the United States business cycle during analysis. The prediction that a contraction is more likely to end in the period before an election than in other periods is not supported by our empirical results. There is significant evidence. however. that an expansion is significantly more likely to end after the election of a Republican president but not after the election of a Democratic president in the post-World War I and post-World War II periods. This is consistent with the predictions of rational partisan political business cycle theory.
Book Synopsis Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy written by Alberto Alesina and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.
Book Synopsis Election Results and Opportunistic Policies by : Toke S. Aidt
Download or read book Election Results and Opportunistic Policies written by Toke S. Aidt and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles by : Richard E. Wagner
Download or read book Political Business Cycles written by Richard E. Wagner and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The literature on political business cycles follows two analytical conventions: (1) polity is reasonably reduced to a single agent who is either opportunistic or partisan and (2) economy is an equilibrated entity that is subject to politically inspired shocks. This paper pursues a different conceptualization of the relationship between politics and macro-level variability, and is based on three key differences from conventional formulations: (1) macro variables are not direct objects of choice but are just aggregates that emerge out of some micro structure of relationships, (2) a presumption that competitive processes are naturally turbulent replaces the standard focus on equilibrium states, and (3) polity and economy are treated not as point-mass entities but as an entangled ecology of enterprises. Within this alternative framework, variability is a normal feature of open competition, and with the intensity of that variability depending on the constitutional framework that governs the ecology of enterprises that comprise a political economy.
Book Synopsis Election Results and Oportunistic Policies by : Toke Skovsgaard Aidt
Download or read book Election Results and Oportunistic Policies written by Toke Skovsgaard Aidt and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of eelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger winmargin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.
Book Synopsis Political Models of Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Reform by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Political Models of Macroeconomic Policy and Fiscal Reform written by Alberto Alesina and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1992 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two forces affect the success of stabilization in both dramatic and dictatorial systems: (1) the policymakers' incentive to retain power and (2) society's polarization and the degree of social conflict.
Book Synopsis Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles by : Jac C. Heckelman
Download or read book Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycles written by Jac C. Heckelman and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Variable Rational Partisan Business Cycle model is developed, where agents face uncertainty regarding the timing and outcome of the next election. The model predicts that partisan influences on the economy persist throughout the government's rule and are further influenced, in the opposite direction, by which party ruled in the previous period. Party popularity also has a causal effect on the business cycle. Finally, the effects from changes in election timing expectations are dependent on which party ruled in the previous period. Empirical results for output and unemployment in Canada, Germany, and United Kingdom yield mixed support for the model.
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles by : Bruno S. Frey
Download or read book Political Business Cycles written by Bruno S. Frey and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 1997 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A collection of articles on how the government influences the economy in order to secure re-election. This book surveys the empirical and major theoretical approaches, such as vote maximization, partisan and vote-cum-partisan models, and rational political business cycles. It provides extensions including the role of the central bank, of direct democracy, and the cycles in European communist countries, as well as discussing policy relevance.
Book Synopsis Political Cycles in OECD Economies by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Political Cycles in OECD Economies written by Alberto Alesina and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies whether the dynamic behavior of GNP growth, unemployment and inflation is systematically affected by the timing of elections and of changes of governments. The sample includes the last three decades in 18 OECD economies. We explicitly test the implication of several models of political cycles, both of the "opportunistic" and of the "partisan" type. Also, we confront the implication of recent "rational" models with more traditional approaches. Our results can be summarized as follows: a) The "political business cycle" hypothesis, as formulated in Nordhaus (1975) on output and unemployment is generally rejected by the data. With the exception of Japan, we also reject by the extension of the "political business cycle" model, with endogenous timing of elections; b) inflation tends to increase immediately after elections, perhaps as a result of preelectoral expansionary monetary and fiscal policies; (c) we fire evidence of temporary partisan differences in output and unemployment and of long-run partisan differences in the inflation rate as implied by the "rational partisan theory" by Alesina (1987); (d) we find virtually no evidence of permanent partisan differences in output and unemployment.
Book Synopsis Rational Opportunistic Political Business Cycles by : Tobias Fritsch
Download or read book Rational Opportunistic Political Business Cycles written by Tobias Fritsch and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-02 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2006 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 2,0, Free University of Berlin, language: English, abstract: The current political decisions do not only affect the economy, additionally also future capital stocks and (infra-) structures are significantly influenced. Generally one should keep in mind that natural resources as well as price inflation for produced goods highly depend on the decision whether to consume now or save them for later. One of the most important influence factors for the economical life is the government policy. The trade-off between the focus on present and future welfare (between consuming and saving) is mainly based on political decisions. Thus it is important to address the role of the government and understand how elections and voters might influence the decision of the political parties during their incumbency. This paper describes the motivation of the politicians to influence the voters before the election takes place in order to win. Generally speaking, they use economical instruments (like the Phillips curve, aggregated demand, budgets, etc.) to increase their chance for the next election. However the usage of these instruments produces a downturn shortly after the election; the whole process is called a political business cycle.
Book Synopsis The Political Business Cycle with Rational Agents by : Costas Roumanias
Download or read book The Political Business Cycle with Rational Agents written by Costas Roumanias and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Limits and Rewards of Political Opportunism. How Electoral Timing Affects the Outcome of Currency Crises by : Stefanie Walter
Download or read book The Limits and Rewards of Political Opportunism. How Electoral Timing Affects the Outcome of Currency Crises written by Stefanie Walter and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Politicians are often assumed to be opportunistic. This article examines both whether there is a limit to this opportunism and whether voters reward policy makers for opportunistic behaviour. By looking at currency crisis situations, the article presents a graphic rational opportunistic political business cycle model in which incumbents face a tradeoff between their wish to signal competence and the economic constraints imposed by the crisis. It analyses how electoral incentives affect policy makers' management of currency crises and how this management in turn affects the subsequent election outcome. The empirical results of probit models with selection using a sample of 122 crises in 48 industrial and developing countries between 1983 and 2003 confirm the model's prediction that under certain circumstances some types of policy makers do indeed have incentives to deviate from optimal policy in the run-up to elections - and that voters reward this behaviour by re-electing policy makers who follow such strategies. However, there is a limit to the readiness to manipulate: when speculative pressure is too severe, incumbents no longer manipulate policy but implement the least painful policy option instead.
Book Synopsis Political Business Cycles and the Reelection Probabilities of Partisan Governments by : Rainer Fehn
Download or read book Political Business Cycles and the Reelection Probabilities of Partisan Governments written by Rainer Fehn and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
