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Rational Decision And Causality
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Book Synopsis Rational Decision and Causality by : Ellery Eells
Download or read book Rational Decision and Causality written by Ellery Eells and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-26 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1982, Ellery Eells' original work on rational decision making had extensive implications for probability theorists, economists, statisticians and psychologists concerned with decision making and the employment of Bayesian principles. His analysis of the philosophical and psychological significance of Bayesian decision theories, causal decision theories and Newcomb's paradox continues to be influential in philosophy of science. His book is now revived for a new generation of readers and presented in a fresh twenty-first-century series livery, including a specially commissioned preface written by Brian Skyrms, illuminating its continuing importance and relevance to philosophical enquiry.
Book Synopsis Rational Decision and Causality by : Ellery Eells
Download or read book Rational Decision and Causality written by Ellery Eells and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-08-26 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published: New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982.
Book Synopsis The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory by : James M. Joyce
Download or read book The Foundations of Causal Decision Theory written by James M. Joyce and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1999-04-13 with total page 281 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.
Book Synopsis Causality, Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making by : Tshilidzi Marwala
Download or read book Causality, Correlation and Artificial Intelligence for Rational Decision Making written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-01-02 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causality has been a subject of study for a long time. Often causality is confused with correlation. Human intuition has evolved such that it has learned to identify causality through correlation. In this book, four main themes are considered and these are causality, correlation, artificial intelligence and decision making. A correlation machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron network, principal component analysis, Gaussian Mixture models, genetic algorithms, expectation maximization technique, simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization. Furthermore, a causal machine is defined and built using multi-layer perceptron, radial basis function, Bayesian statistics and Hybrid Monte Carlo methods. Both these machines are used to build a Granger non-linear causality model. In addition, the Neyman–Rubin, Pearl and Granger causal models are studied and are unified. The automatic relevance determination is also applied to extend Granger causality framework to the non-linear domain. The concept of rational decision making is studied, and the theory of flexibly-bounded rationality is used to extend the theory of bounded rationality within the principle of the indivisibility of rationality. The theory of the marginalization of irrationality for decision making is also introduced to deal with satisficing within irrational conditions. The methods proposed are applied in biomedical engineering, condition monitoring and for modelling interstate conflict. Contents:Introduction to Artificial Intelligence based Decision MakingWhat is a Correlation Machine?What is a Causal Machine?Correlation Machines Using Optimization MethodsNeural Networks for Modeling Granger CausalityRubin, Pearl and Granger Causality Models: A Unified ViewCausal, Correlation and Automatic Relevance Determination Machines for Granger CausalityFlexibly-bounded RationalityMarginalization of Irrationality in Decision MakingConclusions and Further Work Readership: Graduate students, researchers and professionals in the field of artificial intelligence. Key Features:It proposes fresh definition of causality and proposes two new theories i.e. flexibly bounded rationality and marginalization of irrationality theory for decision makingIt also applies these techniques to a diverse areas in engineering, political science and biomedical engineeringKeywords:Causality;Correlation;Artificial Intelligence;Rational Decision Making
Book Synopsis Evidence, Decision and Causality by : Arif Ahmed
Download or read book Evidence, Decision and Causality written by Arif Ahmed and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-02-02 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most philosophers agree that causal knowledge is essential to decision-making: agents should choose from the available options those that probably cause the outcomes that they want. This book argues against this theory and in favour of evidential or Bayesian decision theory, which emphasises the symptomatic value of options over their causal role. It examines a variety of settings, including economic theory, quantum mechanics and philosophical thought-experiments, where causal knowledge seems to make a practical difference. The arguments make novel use of machinery from other areas of philosophical inquiry, including first-person epistemology and the free will debate. The book also illustrates the applicability of decision theory itself to questions about the direction of time and the special epistemic status of agents.
Book Synopsis Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics by : W.L. Harper
Download or read book Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics written by W.L. Harper and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers collected here are, with three exceptions, those presented at a conference on probability and causation held at the University of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony were not able to contribute the papers that they presented to this volume, and that Clark Glymour who was not able to attend the conference did contribute a paper. We would like to thank the National Science Foundation and the School of Humanities of the University of California at Irvine for generous support. WILLIAM HARPER University of Western Ontario BRIAN SKYRMS University of California at Irvine Vll INTRODUCTION PART I: DECISIONS AND GAMES Causal notions have recently corne to figure prominently in discussions about rational decision making. Indeed, a relatively influential new approach to theorizing about rational choice has come to be called "causal decision theory". 1 Decision problems such as Newcombe's Problem and some versions of the Prisoner's Dilemma where an act counts as evidence for a desired state even though the agent knows his choice of that act cannot causally influence whether or not the state obtains have motivated causal decision theorists.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Causal Reasoning by : Michael Waldmann
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Causal Reasoning written by Michael Waldmann and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 769 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Causal reasoning is one of our most central cognitive competencies, enabling us to adapt to our world. Causal knowledge allows us to predict future events, or diagnose the causes of observed facts. We plan actions and solve problems using knowledge about cause-effect relations. Without our ability to discover and empirically test causal theories, we would not have made progress in various empirical sciences. The handbook brings together the leading researchers in the field of causal reasoning and offers state-of-the-art presentations of theories and research. It provides introductions of competing theories of causal reasoning, and discusses its role in various cognitive functions and domains. The final section presents research from neighboring fields.
Book Synopsis Taking Chances by : Jordan Howard Sobel
Download or read book Taking Chances written by Jordan Howard Sobel and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-04-29 with total page 396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: J. Howard Sobel has long been recognized as an important figure in philosophical discussions of rational decision. He has done much to help formulate the concept of causal decision theory. In this volume of essays Sobel explores the Bayesian idea that rational actions maximize expected values, where an action's expected value is a weighted average of its agent's values for its possible total outcomes. Newcomb's Problem and The Prisoner's Dilemma are discussed, and Allais-type puzzles are viewed from the perspective of causal world Bayesianism. The author establishes principles for distinguishing options in decision problems, and studies ways in which perfectly rational causal maximizers can be capable of resolute choices. Sobel also views critically Gauthier's revisionist ideas about maximizing rationality. This collection will be a desideratum for anyone working in the field of rational choice theory, whether in philosophy, economics, political science, psychology or statistics. Howard Sobel's work in decision theory is certainly among the most important, interesting and challenging that is being done by philosophers.
Book Synopsis Thinking about Acting by : John L. Pollock
Download or read book Thinking about Acting written by John L. Pollock and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-27 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work aims to construct a theory of rational decision making for real, resource-bounded, agents. Such decision making must be based on objective probabilities rather than subjective probabilities, and can't be done by choosing single action with maxmimal expected values.
Book Synopsis Evidential Decision Theory by : Arif Ahmed
Download or read book Evidential Decision Theory written by Arif Ahmed and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-21 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Evidential Decision Theory is a radical theory of rational decision-making. It recommends that instead of thinking about what your decisions *cause*, you should think about what they *reveal*. This Element explains in simple terms why thinking in this way makes a big difference, and argues that doing so makes for *better* decisions. An appendix gives an intuitive explanation of the measure-theoretic foundations of Evidential Decision Theory.
Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making by : Tshilidzi Marwala
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-10-20 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Develops insights into solving complex problems in engineering, biomedical sciences, social science and economics based on artificial intelligence. Some of the problems studied are in interstate conflict, credit scoring, breast cancer diagnosis, condition monitoring, wine testing, image processing and optical character recognition. The author discusses and applies the concept of flexibly-bounded rationality which prescribes that the bounds in Nobel Laureate Herbert Simon’s bounded rationality theory are flexible due to advanced signal processing techniques, Moore’s Law and artificial intelligence. Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Rational Decision Making examines and defines the concepts of causal and correlation machines and applies the transmission theory of causality as a defining factor that distinguishes causality from correlation. It develops the theory of rational counterfactuals which are defined as counterfactuals that are intended to maximize the attainment of a particular goal within the context of a bounded rational decision making process. Furthermore, it studies four methods for dealing with irrelevant information in decision making: Theory of the marginalization of irrelevant information Principal component analysis Independent component analysis Automatic relevance determination method In addition it studies the concept of group decision making and various ways of effecting group decision making within the context of artificial intelligence. Rich in methods of artificial intelligence including rough sets, neural networks, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, simulated annealing, incremental learning and fuzzy networks, this book will be welcomed by researchers and students working in these areas.
Book Synopsis Decision, Probability, and Utility by : Peter Gärdenfors
Download or read book Decision, Probability, and Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 449 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.
Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
Book Synopsis Probability and Conditionals by : Ellery Eells
Download or read book Probability and Conditionals written by Ellery Eells and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-11-25 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Essays on the state of research investigating the relationship between conditionals and conditional probabilities.
Download or read book Newcomb's Problem written by Arif Ahmed and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-11 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Which of two boxes to select for a monetary award; or, to select both? Someone else has predicted your choice.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Causality by : Ellery Eells
Download or read book Probabilistic Causality written by Ellery Eells and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-03-29 with total page 427 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this important first book in the series Cambridge Studies in Probability, Induction and Decision Theory, Ellery Eells explores and refines current philosophical conceptions of probabilistic causality. In a probabilistic theory of causation, causes increase the probability of their effects rather than necessitate their effects in the ways traditional deterministic theories have specified. Philosophical interest in this subject arises from attempts to understand population sciences as well as indeterminism in physics. Taking into account issues involving spurious correlation, probabilistic causal interaction, disjunctive causal factors, and temporal ideas, Professor Eells advances the analysis of what it is for one factor to be a positive causal factor for another. A salient feature of the book is a new theory of token level probabilistic causation in which the evolution of the probability of a later event from an earlier event is central.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation by : Brian Skyrms
Download or read book The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation written by Brian Skyrms and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Brian Skyrms constructs a theory of "dynamic deliberation" and uses it to investigate rational decisionmaking in cases of strategic interaction. This illuminating book will be of great interest to all those in many disciplines who use decision theory and game theory to study human behavior and thought. Skyrms begins by discussing the Bayesian theory of individual rational decision and the classical theory of games, which at first glance seem antithetical in the criteria used for determining action. In his effort to show how methods for dealing with information feedback can be productively combined, the author skillfully leads us through the mazes of equilibrium selection, the Nash equilibria for normal and extensive forms, structural stability, causal decision theory, dynamic probability, the revision of beliefs, and, finally, good habits for decision. The author provides many clarifying illustrations and a handy appendix called "Deliberational Dynamics on Your Personal Computer." His powerful model has important implications for understanding the rational origins of convention and the social contract, the logic of nuclear deterrence, the theory of good habits, and the varied strategies of political and economic behavior.
