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Author : M. Nakken
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (668 download)
Download or read book Projecting Climate Model Uncertainties Into the Impact Domain written by M. Nakken and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gabriele Gramelsberger
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 364217700X
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)
Download or read book Climate Change and Policy written by Gabriele Gramelsberger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-03-30 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the ‘nature’ of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today’s attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances. As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate models can give insights into man-induced climate change, by experimenting with digital climates under varying conditions and by extrapolating past and future states into the future. But the 'nature' of models is a purely representational one. A model is good if it is believed to represent the relevant processes of a natural system well. However, a model and its results, in particular in the case of climate models which interconnect countless hypotheses, is only to some extent testable, although an advanced infrastructure of evaluation strategies has been developed involving strategies of model intercomparison, ensemble prognoses, uncertainty metrics on the system and component levels. The complexity of climate models goes hand in hand with uncertainties, but uncertainty is in conflict with socio-political expectations. However, certain predictions belong to the realm of desires and ideals rather than to applied science. Today's attempt to define and classify uncertainty in terms of likelihood and confidence reflect this awareness of uncertainty as an integral part of human knowledge, in particular on knowledge about possible future developments. The contributions in this book give a first hand insight into scientific strategies in dealing with uncertainty by using simulation models and into social, political and economical requirements in future projections on climate change. Do these strategies and requirements meet each other or fail? Gabriele Gramelsberger is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project is Principal Investigator of the Collaborative Research Project
Author : Chih-pei Chang
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814579947
Total Pages : 387 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (145 download)
Download or read book Climate Change: Multidecadal And Beyond written by Chih-pei Chang and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2015-08-06 with total page 387 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on two major challenges in the climate sciences: 1) to describe the decadal-to-centennial variations in instrumental and proxy records; and 2) to distinguish between anthropogenic variations and natural variability. The National Taiwan University invited some of the world's leading experts across the areas of observational analysis, mathematical theory, and modeling to discuss these two issues. The outcome of the meeting is the 23 chapters in this book that review the state of the art in theoretical, observational and modeling research on internal, unforced and externally forced climate variability. The main conclusion of this research is that internal climate variability on decadal and longer time scales is so large that sidestepping it may lead to false estimates of the climate's sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
Author : Andrew Gettelman
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3662489597
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (624 download)
Download or read book Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-09 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Author : Naomi L. Goldenson
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Quantifying the Influence of Dynamics Across Scales on Regional Climate Uncertainty in Western North America written by Naomi L. Goldenson and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in climate projections at the regional scale are inevitably larger than those for global mean quantities. Here, focusing on western North American regional climate, several approaches are taken to quantifying uncertainties starting with the output of global climate model projections. Internal variance is found to be an important component of the projection uncertainty up and down the west coast. To quantify internal variance and other projection uncertainties in existing climate models, we evaluate different ensemble configurations. Using a statistical framework to simultaneously account for multiple sources of uncertainty, we find internal variability can be quantified consistently using a large ensemble or an ensemble of opportunity that includes small ensembles from multiple models and climate scenarios. The latter offers the advantage of also producing estimates of uncertainty due to model differences. We conclude that climate projection uncertainties are best assessed using small single-model ensembles from as many model-scenario pairings as computationally feasible. We then conduct a small single-model ensemble of simulations using the Model for Predic- tion Across Scales with physics from the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5 (MPAS- CAM5) and prescribed historical sea surface temperatures. In the global variable resolution domain, the finest resolution (at 30 km) is in our region of interest over western North Amer- ica and upwind over the northeast Pacific. In the finer-scale region, extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs) is connected to tendencies in seasonal snowpack in mountains of the Northwest United States and California. In most of the Cascade Mountains, winters with more AR days are associated with less snowpack, in contrast to the northern Rockies and California’s Sierra Nevadas. In snowpack observations and reanalysis of the atmospheric circulation, we find similar relationships between frequency of AR events and winter season snowpack in the western United States. In spring, however, there is not a clear relationship between number of AR days and seasonal mean snowpack across the model ensemble, so caution is urged in interpreting the historical record in the spring season. Finally, the representation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — an important source of interannual climate predictability in some regions — is explored in a large single- model ensemble using ensemble Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to find modes of variance across the entire ensemble at once. The leading EOF is ENSO. The principal components (PCs) of the next three EOFs exhibit a lead-lag relationship with the ENSO signal captured in the first PC. The second PC, with most of its variance in the summer season, is the most strongly cross-correlated with the first. This approach offers insight into how the model considered represents this important atmosphere-ocean interaction. Taken together these varied approaches quantify the implications of climate projections regionally, identify processes that make snowpack water resources vulnerable, and seek insight into how to better simulate the large-scale climate modes controlling regional variability.
Author : Robert L. Wilby
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107143454
Total Pages : 367 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)
Download or read book Climate Change in Practice written by Robert L. Wilby and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-04-13 with total page 367 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible book challenges and provokes readers by posing a series of topical questions concerning climate change and society. With topic summaries, practical exercises, case studies and various online resources, it is ideal for students of geography, natural science, engineering and economics, and practitioners in the climate service industry.
Author : Patrick A. Ray
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464804788
Total Pages : 149 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design written by Patrick A. Ray and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2015-08-20 with total page 149 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.
Author : Asuka Suzuki-Parker
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642250297
Total Pages : 89 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (422 download)
Download or read book Uncertainties and Limitations in Simulating Tropical Cyclones written by Asuka Suzuki-Parker and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-01-05 with total page 89 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
Author : Philip J. Rasch
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 146145767X
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)
Download or read book Climate Change Modeling Methodology written by Philip J. Rasch and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-09 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Earth's average temperature has risen by 1.4°F over the past century, and computer models project that it will rise much more over the next hundred years, with significant impacts on weather, climate, and human society. Many climate scientists attribute these increases to the build up of greenhouse gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels and to the anthropogenic production of short-lived climate pollutants. Climate Change Modeling Methodologies: Selected Entries from the Encyclopaedia of Sustainability Science and Technology provides readers with an introduction to the tools and analysis techniques used by climate change scientists to interpret the role of these forcing agents on climate. Readers will also gain a deeper understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these models and how to test and assess them. The contributions include a glossary of key terms and a concise definition of the subject for each topic, as well as recommendations for sources of more detailed information.
Author : Erwan Monier
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (858 download)
Download or read book A Framework for Modeling Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change written by Erwan Monier and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the US associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections (using different climate policies), climate system parameters (represented by different values of climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing), natural variability (by perturbing initial conditions) and structural uncertainty (using different climate models). The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an intermediate complexity earth system model (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Secondly, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that uncertainty in temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to precipitation changes, with natural variability having a large impact in the first part of the 21st century. Overall, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty in future projections of climate change over the US.
Author : The BACC II Author Team
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319160060
Total Pages : 515 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)
Download or read book Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin written by The BACC II Author Team and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-04-03 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an update of the first BACC assessment, published in 2008. It offers new and updated scientific findings in regional climate research for the Baltic Sea basin. These include climate changes since the last glaciation (approx. 12,000 years ago), changes in the recent past (the last 200 years), climate projections up until 2100 using state-of-the-art regional climate models and an assessment of climate-change impacts on terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. There are dedicated new chapters on sea-level rise, coastal erosion and impacts on urban areas. A new set of chapters deals with possible causes of regional climate change along with the global effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations, namely atmospheric aerosols and land-cover change. The evidence collected and presented in this book shows that the regional climate has already started to change and this is expected to continue. Projections of potential future climates show that the region will probably become considerably warmer and wetter in some parts, but dryer in others. Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have already shown adjustments to increased temperatures and are expected to undergo further changes in the near future. The BACC II Author Team consists of 141 scientists from 12 countries, covering various disciplines related to climate research and related impacts. BACC II is a project of the Baltic Earth research network and contributes to the World Climate Research Programme.
Author : Douglas Maraun
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107066050
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction for Climate Research written by Douglas Maraun and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-01-18 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and practical guide, providing technical background and user context for researchers, graduate students, practitioners and decision makers. This book presents the main approaches and describes their underlying assumptions, skill and limitations. Guidelines for the application of downscaling and the use of downscaled information in practice complete the volume.
Download or read book Adjusting to Policy Expectations in Climate Change Modeling written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys and interprets the attitudes of scientists to the use of flux adjustments in climate projections with coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models. The survey is based largely on the responses of 19 climate modellers to several questions and a discussion document circulated in 1995. We interpret the responses in terms of the following factors: the implicit assumptions which scientists hold about how the environmental policy process deals with scientific uncertainty over human-related global warming; the different scientific styles that exist in climate research; and the influence of organisations, institutions, and policy upon research agendas. We find evidence that scientists' perceptions of the policy process do play a role in shaping their scientific practices. In particular, many of our respondents expressed a preference for keeping discussion of the issue of flux adjustments within the climate modeling community, apparently fearing that climate contrarians would exploit the issue in the public domain. While this may be true, we point to the risk that such an approach may backfire. We also identify assumptions and cultural commitments lying at a deeper level which play at least as important a role as perceptions of the policy process in shaping scientific practices. This leads us to identify two groups of scientists, 'pragmatists' and 'purists, ' who have different implicit standards for model adequacy, and correspondingly are or are not willing to use flux adjustments.
Author : Scott Steinschneider
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Essays on the Quantification and Propagation of Uncertainty in Climate Change Impact Assessments for Water Resource Systems written by Scott Steinschneider and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sustainable water resources planning and management under climate change requires a proper treatment of uncertainties that emerge in an impacts analysis. A primary source of this uncertainty originates from the difficulties in projecting how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will evolve over time and influence the climate system at regional and local scales. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as errors in modeling hydrologic response to climate and the influences of internal climate variability, compound the effects of climate change uncertainty and further obscure our understanding of water resources performance under future climate conditions. This work presents an approach to quantify the interactions, propagation, and relative contributions of different sources of uncertainty in a water resources impacts assessment under climate change. Hydrologic modeling uncertainty is addressed using Bayesian methods that can quantify both parametric and structural errors. Hydrologic uncertainties are propagated through an ensemble of climate projections to explore their joint uncertainty. A new stochastic weather generator is presented to develop a wide ensemble of climate projections that can extend beyond the limited range of change often afforded by global climate models and better explore climate risks. The weather generator also enables the development of multiple realizations of the same mean climate conditions, allowing an exploration of the effects of internal climate variability. The uncertainties from mean climate changes, internal climate variability, and hydrologic modeling errors are then integrated in two climate change analyses of a flood control facility and a multi-purpose surface reservoir system, respectively, to explore their separate and combined effect on future system performance. The primary goal of this work is to present methods that can better estimate the precision associated with future projections of water resource system performance under climate change, and through this provide information that can guide the development of adaptation strategies that are robust to these uncertainties.
Author : Jee Hee Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (869 download)
Download or read book Impacts of Lateral Boundary Conditions on Regional Climate Projections Over West Africa written by Jee Hee Kim and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : C. Fai Fung
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1444348175
Total Pages : 215 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (443 download)
Download or read book Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources written by C. Fai Fung and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-07-05 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and water resources management requires knowledge of climate, hydro(geo)logical and water resources models, and particularly the relationships between each of them. This book brings together world experts on each of these aspects, distilling each complex topic into concise and easy to understand chapters, in which both the uses and limitations of modelling are explored. The book concludes with a set of case studies using real-life examples to illustrate the steps required and the problems that can be faced in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on water resource systems. For students, scientists, engineers and decision-makers alike, this book provides an invaluable and critical look at the information that is provided by climate models, and the ways it is used in modelling water systems. A key focus is the exploration of how uncertainties may accrue at each stage of an impacts assessment, and the reliability of the resulting information. The book is a practical guide to understanding the opportunities and pitfalls in the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in the water resource sector.
Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II.
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521634557
Total Pages : 532 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (345 download)
Download or read book The Regional Impacts of Climate Change written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Working Group II. and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cambridge, UK : Cambridge University Press, 1998.
