Profit Cycle Dynamics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (773 download)

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Book Synopsis Profit Cycle Dynamics by : Kawika Paul Pierson

Download or read book Profit Cycle Dynamics written by Kawika Paul Pierson and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: My thesis consists of three essays investigating the existence, causes, and mitigation of profit cycles at an industry level. The first essay examines profit cycles by proposing that the industry-specific features of how competition acts on a firm are important determinants of how mean reversion manifests in firm earnings. The evidence suggests that because competition has inertia, caused by the time to build productive capacity specific to each industry, earnings do not smoothly revert to the mean, but instead cycle around it. Since these findings affect research that uses expected earnings models, lags of capital expenditure are used as a proxy for competition in a regression model of firm earnings and are shown to be significant determinants of the earnings reported. The second essay seeks to explain why aggregate airline industry profits have displayed cyclicality since deregulation in 1978. In order to better understand the causes of these profit cycles, I build a large-scale model of the airline industry that includes more endogenous feedbacks than previous models, as well as formulations for several strategies that have been employed by airlines to mitigate the cycles. While I find that, consistent with earlier research, the delay in acquiring capacity is an important determinant of the behavior of airline profits, I also show that multiple negative feedback loops are involved in the intensity and periodicity of the profit cycle in the airline industry. Specifically, analysis of my model suggests that the growing reliance on yield management as a tool for determining ticket prices has exacerbated the volatility of airline industry profits. The third essay focuses on the insurance industry, where the delay in building productive capacity is short. I build and analyze a parsimonious model of the property-casualty insurance industry, and show results which suggest that delays in adjusting the characteristics of underwritten insurance policies are responsible for the oscillatory behavior. Simulations where the industry increases both the target level of capital reserves, and the attention paid to the adequacy of that level, show significantly reduced profit variance.

The Airline Profit Cycle

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Author :
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 135174397X
Total Pages : 550 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis The Airline Profit Cycle by : Eva-Maria Cronrath

Download or read book The Airline Profit Cycle written by Eva-Maria Cronrath and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-07-06 with total page 550 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The air transport industry has high economic impact; it supports more than 60 million jobs worldwide. Since the early years of commercial air travel, passenger numbers have grown tremendously. However, for decades airlines’ financial results have been swinging between profits and losses. The airline industry’s aggregate net average profit between 1970 and 2010 was close to zero, which implies bankruptcies and layoffs in downturns. The profit cycle’s amplitude has been rising over time, which means that problems have become increasingly severe and also shows that the industry may not have learned from the past. More stable financial results could not only facilitate airline management decisions and improve investors’ confidence but also preserve employment. This book offers a thorough understanding of the airline profit cycle’s causes and drivers, and it presents measures to achieve a higher and more stable profitability level. This is the first in-depth examination of the airline profit cycle. The airline industry is modelled as a complex dynamic system, which is used for quantitative simulations of ‘what if’ scenarios. These experiments reveal that the general economic environment, such as GDP or fuel price developments, influence the airline industry’s profitability pattern as well as certain regulations or aircraft manufactures’ policies. Yet despite all circumstances, simulations show that airlines’ own management decisions are sufficient to generate higher and more stable profits in the industry. This book is useful for aviation industry decision makers, investors, policy makers, and researchers because it explains why the airline industry earns or loses money. This knowledge will advance forecasting and market intelligence. Furthermore, the book offers practitioners different suggestions to sustainably improve the airline industry’s profitability. The book is also recommended as a case study for system analysis as well as industry cyclicality at graduate or postgraduate level for courses such as engineering, economics, or management.

On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics by :

Download or read book On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Business Cycle Dynamics

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540321683
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Cycle Dynamics by : Iryna Sushko

Download or read book Business Cycle Dynamics written by Iryna Sushko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-08-13 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business cycle theory has been one of the fastest growing fields in modern nonlinear economic dynamics. This book presents new mathematical methods for global analysis which have not previously been available in this easily accessible form. In addition it contains a presentation of full analyses of several models left open in the 1950s when the tools then available did not permit more systematic analysis.

On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (162 download)

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Book Synopsis On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics by : Burkhard Heer

Download or read book On the Modeling of the Income Distribution Business Cycle Dynamics written by Burkhard Heer and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Profit Cycles, Oligopoly, and Regional Development

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780262512206
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis Profit Cycles, Oligopoly, and Regional Development by : Ann Markusen

Download or read book Profit Cycles, Oligopoly, and Regional Development written by Ann Markusen and published by . This book was released on 2008-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a theory that radically reconceptualizes the economic forces producing regional change and tests it empirically for a set of fifteen sectors in the U.S. It offers a pioneering approach which should enable planners and managers to better cope with baffling changes in the current economic viability of regions. The dramatic shifts in heartland regional economies in the U.S. and other advanced industrial countries have thrown into question the ability of capitalist development to produce permanent growth, economic well being, and balanced regional development. This book develops a theory that radically reconceptualizes the economic forces producing regional change and tests it empirically for a set of fifteen sectors in the U.S. It offers a pioneering approach which should enable planners and managers to better cope with baffling changes in the current economic viability of regions. Traditional theories of regional development have failed to account for innovation and longrun structural change. They have ignored the role of corporate strategy and the existence of market power. Markusen's profit-cycle theory provides a key to understanding how, why, and when a region's leading industries undergo major changes. The theory is synthetic, building upon Schumpeterian and Marxist work on innovation and capitalist dynamics, upon the product cycle theories of business economists, and upon theories of oligopolistic behavior. Markusen argues that changing sources of profitability along an industry's evolutionary path will first concentrate and later disperse production geographically, setting in motion a methodically destabilizing process for regional economies. The profit-cycle theory is tested in depth against the steel sector's experience over a century, and against the experiences of sectors in different stages of development, ranging from innovative ones like semiconductors and computers, to mature and troubled sectors like automobiles, textiles, and lumber. The temporal and crosssectional data drawn from the census of manufactures support the theory and its spatial hypotheses. In a final chapter Markusen explores the implications of the research for regional development.

Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315288796
Total Pages : 274 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (152 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles by : Willi Semmler

Download or read book Financial Dynamics and Business Cycles written by Willi Semmler and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-08-08 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the 55th anniversary of the bank holiday of March 1933 approached, financial instability was a main topic in the financial press. Daily reports appeared of international debt crises, of the covert bankruptcy of deposit insurance, and of the near bankruptcy of one great financial institution after another. The great stock market crash of October 19 and 20, 1987, demonstrated that extreme instability can happen. It is generally asserted that the consequences of October 19th and 20th would have been disastrous if the Federal Reserve and Treasury interventions had not set things right. In 1933, financial markets in the United States and throughout the capitalist world collapsed. In the light of historical experience, the past 55 years are the anomaly. The papers collected in this volume come from various backgrounds and research paradigms. A common theme runs through these papers that makes the collection both interesting and important: The authors take seriously the obvious evidence that capitalist economies progress through time by lurching. Whether a particular study starts from household utility maximization or from the processes by which productive structures are reproduced and expanded, the authors are united in accepting the evidence that financial instability is a significant characteristic of modern capitalism.

The Dynamics of Business Cycles

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134357176
Total Pages : 301 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (343 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Business Cycles by : J.J. Polak

Download or read book The Dynamics of Business Cycles written by J.J. Polak and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2004-06-01 with total page 301 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1942, this landmark volume makes available the entire business-cycle analysis of the Dutch economist, Jan Tinbergen, whose work in economic dynamics stimulated a new school of econometric research. The book explains what is typical and common in economic movements - the system of supply and demand schedules used to describe a market, certain technical relations, and 'balance equations'.

Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (516 download)

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Book Synopsis Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention by : Bartosz Adam Maćkowiak

Download or read book Business cycle dynamics under rational inattention written by Bartosz Adam Maćkowiak and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Dynamics of Business Cycles

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Publisher : Routledge & Kegan Paul Books
ISBN 13 : 0415321379
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (153 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Business Cycles by : Jan Tinbergen

Download or read book The Dynamics of Business Cycles written by Jan Tinbergen and published by Routledge & Kegan Paul Books. This book was released on 2004-08-12 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Originally published in 1942, this landmark volume makes available the entire business-cycle analysis of the Dutch economist, Jan Tinbergen, whose work in economic dynamics stimulated a new school of econometric research. The book explains what is typical and common in economic movements - the system of supply and demand schedules used to describe a market, certain technical relations, and 'balance equations'.

Routledge Handbook of Marxian Economics

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1317683722
Total Pages : 436 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (176 download)

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Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Marxian Economics by : David M. Brennan

Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Marxian Economics written by David M. Brennan and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most developed economies are characterized by high levels of inequality and an inability to provide stability or opportunity for many of their citizens. Mainstream economics has proven to be of little assistance in addressing these systemic failures, and this has led both scholars and students to seek alternatives. One such alternative is provided by Marxian economics. In recent decades the field has seen tremendous theoretical development and Marxian perspectives have begun to appear in public discourse in unprecedented ways. This handbook contains thirty-seven original essays from a wide range of leading international scholars, recognized for their expertise in different areas of Marxian economics. Its scope is broad, ranging from contributions on familiar Marxist concepts such as value theory, the labor process, accumulation, crisis and socialism, to others not always associated with the Marxian canon, like feminism, ecology, international migration and epistemology. This breadth of coverage reflects the development of Marxian economic and social theory, and encompasses both the history and the frontiers of current scholarship. This handbook provides an extensive statement of the current shape and future direction of Marxian economics. The Routledge Handbook of Marxian Economics is an invaluable resource for students, researchers and policy makers seeking guidance in this field. It is designed to serve both as a reference work and as a supplementary text for classroom use, with applications for courses in economics, sociology, political science, management, anthropology, development studies, philosophy and history.

Money, Investment and Consumption

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Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1849803331
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (498 download)

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Book Synopsis Money, Investment and Consumption by : O. F. Hamouda

Download or read book Money, Investment and Consumption written by O. F. Hamouda and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Professor Hamouda s book is very timely and thought provoking and should be an eye opener for students of economics who were brought up in the anti-Keynesian last decades of the twentieth century, or were taught the garbled rather than updated revived Keynesianism which has recently become popular. Y.S. Brenner, Retired Professor of Economics, Utrecht University, The Netherlands Contrary to the commonly perpetuated belief that Keynes s theory is appropriate only to economic depressions, the author of this provocative book maintains that Keynes provided a complete set of macroeconomic relations and the ingredients of a new theoretical model, much more reflective of and analytically appropriate to the 21st century than those on which current macroeconomics is based. With the perspective of Keynes as the backdrop, the author begins with a discussion of the characteristics of the financial crises of 2008 and the 1930s. He then goes on to show that Keynes provided a novel, general theory, constructed as the EC-SP model (different from that of the Classicals Labour Theory of Value model and the neoClassicals antithetical IS-LM model), a theory yet unrecognized as being behind both A Treatise on Money and The General Theory. He presents here the premises of Keynes s contributions which still await use by a generation of economists to reassess macroeconomics and orient it in a new direction. This unique and authoritative look at Keynes s body of work will be an essential read for scholars and students of economics. Anyone trying to understand the state of the entrepreneurial economy , of which the 2008 financial crisis is but one manifestation prone to recurrence, will find the work an important resource.

Essentials of Marketing Management

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136939652
Total Pages : 551 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (369 download)

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Book Synopsis Essentials of Marketing Management by : Geoffrey Lancaster

Download or read book Essentials of Marketing Management written by Geoffrey Lancaster and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 551 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The overall success of an organization is dependent on how marketing is able to inform strategy and maintain an operational focus on market needs. This title covers such topics as: consumer and organizational buyer behaviour; product and innovation strategies; direct marketing; and, e-marketing.

Schumpeter, Innovation and Growth

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351753932
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (517 download)

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Book Synopsis Schumpeter, Innovation and Growth by : Mümtaz Keklik

Download or read book Schumpeter, Innovation and Growth written by Mümtaz Keklik and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This title was first published in 2003. Bringing together contemporary innovation pattern theories inspired by the two original patterns developed by Joseph A. Schumpeter, this book develops an innovative new model of long wave aggregate level economic activity. This model is rigorously tested with post-war US manufacturing data, revealing an intriguing correlation between the data and the model. The book examines different theories of technological change, and provides a detailed account of the long wave which makes use of the relevant aspects of these theories, without betraying their main features and messages. These theories are synthesized and shown to be consistent with the development of post-war US manufacturing. Shedding light on the dynamics of the technological advances that have taken place in the last 20 years, economists and students alike will find this volume an invaluable read.

Income Distribution Dynamics of Economic Systems

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108850707
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Income Distribution Dynamics of Economic Systems by : Marcelo Byrro Ribeiro

Download or read book Income Distribution Dynamics of Economic Systems written by Marcelo Byrro Ribeiro and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-03-26 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Econophysics has been used to study a range of economic and financial systems. This book uses the econophysical perspective to focus on the income distributive dynamics of economic systems. It focuses on the empirical characterization and dynamics of income distribution and its related quantities from the epistemological and practical perspectives of contemporary physics. Several income distribution functions are presented which fit income data and results obtained by statistical physicists on the income distribution problem. The book discusses two separate research traditions: the statistical physics approach, and the approach based on non-linear trade cycle models of macroeconomic dynamics. Several models of distributive dynamics based on the latter approach are presented, connecting the studies by physicists on distributive dynamics with the recent literature by economists on income inequality. As econophysics is such an interdisciplinary field, this book will be of interest to physicists, economists, statisticians and applied mathematicians.

The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484390040
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective by : Michal Andrle

Download or read book The Present Value of Corporate Profits: A Forecasters' Survey Perspective written by Michal Andrle and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-16 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents and discusses the estimates of the present value of corporate profits in the United States from 1984 to 2018. To value the expected income stream, it uses the long-range forecasts of professional forecasters for pre-tax corporate earnings and long-term Treasury note yields, sourced from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The appraised value of corporate earnings can point in real time at periods where market prices are deviating from valuations implied by expected earnings and interest rates. Market participants' forecasts seem to interpret most of the earnings fluctuations as permanent, underestimating the cyclical fluctuations The over-reaction to transitory shocks and changes in long-term outlook leads to swings in the valuation, in line with swings in the observed market prices.

An Analysis of Profit Cycles in the Airline Industry

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis An Analysis of Profit Cycles in the Airline Industry by : Hong Jiang

Download or read book An Analysis of Profit Cycles in the Airline Industry written by Hong Jiang and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The objective of this paper is to understand the financial dynamics of the airline industry by identifying profit cycle periods of the industry and their driving factors. Assuming that the industry profit cycles could be modeled as an undamped second-order system, the fundamental cycle period was identified to be 11.3 years for the U.S. airlines and 10.5 years for the world airlines. Analyses of industry profits reveal that such cycle period is endogenous, neither deregulation nor September 11 have significantly changed it. Parametric models were developed under the hypothesis that phase lag in the system caused profit oscillations; and two hypotheses, lag in capacity response and lag in cost adjustment were studied. A parametric model was developed by hypothesizing the delay in capacity response caused profit oscillations. For this model, the system stability depends on the delay between aircraft orders and deliveries and the aggressiveness in airplane ordering. Assuming industry profits correlated to capacity shortfall, the delay and gain were calculated and the results were consistent with the observed delay between world aircraft deliveries and net profits. Since the gain in the model has lumped impacts of exogenous factors, exaggerated capacity response was observed in simulation. This indicates capacity shortfall alone cannot fully explain the industry dynamics. The model also indicates reduced delay may help to mitigate system oscillations. Similarly, a parametric model was developed by hypothesizing the delay in cost adjustment caused profit oscillations, and simulation results were consistent with industry profits. A coupled model was developed to study the joint effects of capacity and cost. Simulations indicated that the coupled model explained industry dynamics better than the individual capacity or cost models, indicating that the system behavior is driven by the joint effects of capacity response and cost adjustment. A more sophisticated model including load factor and short-term capacity effects is proposed for future work in an effort to better understand the industry dynamics.