Production Optimization And Forecasting Of Shale Gas Wells Using Simulation Models And Decline Curve Analysis

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Production Optimization and Forecasting of Shale Gas Wells Using Simulation Models and Decline Curve Analysis

Author : Peter O. Ikewun
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Production Optimization and Forecasting of Shale Gas Wells Using Simulation Models and Decline Curve Analysis by : Peter O. Ikewun

Download or read book Production Optimization and Forecasting of Shale Gas Wells Using Simulation Models and Decline Curve Analysis written by Peter O. Ikewun and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Production data from the Eagle Ford shale (an analogue to the Shublik shale of Alaska) was compiled from three neighboring counties and analyzed using decline curve analysis (DCA) to correlate production performance with completion method (horizontal leg/stages of fracture) and length of horizontal leg. Generic simulation models were built and run using a realistic range of properties. Simulation results provided a better understanding of interplay between static properties and dynamic behavior. Results from the DCA of 24 producing wells with production histories of 9-57 months showed, for most cases, an increase in reserves with more fracture stages. However, the DCA generated different forecasts depending on which part of the data were used. This clearly indicated the need for running simulations. Simulation runs can generate more reliable production forecast of which the decline part can be used to evaluate the capability of DCA to reproduce the production profiles. A combination of simulation models and DCA was used to optimize production and forecasting. Simulation models were used to optimize production for a range of different reservoir and completion parameters. The ability for DCA to reproduce simulated results (built with similar data from the Eagle Ford) for wells with different production periods was also analyzed. This results in better and more reliable production forecasts for the Eagle Ford and other young producing shale reservoirs possessing short production history. Modeling of the complex reservoir geometry and fracture networks of these types of reservoirs would give an extensive understanding of the flow mechanics.

History-matching and Forecasting of Three Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs Using Decline Analyses and Type Curves

Author : Hammad Ahmed
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis History-matching and Forecasting of Three Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs Using Decline Analyses and Type Curves by : Hammad Ahmed

Download or read book History-matching and Forecasting of Three Unconventional Oil and Gas Reservoirs Using Decline Analyses and Type Curves written by Hammad Ahmed and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reservoir modeling of shale gas and tight oil presents numerous challenges due to complicated transport mechanisms and the existence of fracture networks. Even then, oil and gas companies have not slowed down on shale hydrocarbon investment and production using horizontal well drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques. Many small oil companies may not have the budget to build a reservoir model which typically requires drilling test wells and performing well logging measurements. Even for large oil companies, building a reservoir model is not worthwhile for the evaluation of small-scale oil fields. Comprehensive numerical simulation methods are likely impractical in those cases. Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is one of the most convenient and practical techniques in order to forecast the production of these reservoirs. With the rapid increase in shale hydrocarbon production over the past 30 years, there have been numerous production data for shale gas reservoirs. Many different DCA models have been constructed to model the shale hydrocarbon production rate, from the classical Arps to the latest and more advanced models; each has its advantages and shortcomings. In practice and in all existing commercial DCA software, most of these DCA models are implemented and open to be used. Most of the deterministic DCA models are empirical and lack a physical background so that they cannot be used for history-matching of the reservoir properties. In this study, popular DCA models for shale gas reservoirs are reviewed, including the types of reservoirs they fit. Their advantages and disadvantages have also been presented. This work will serve as a guideline for petroleum engineers to determine which DCA models should be applied to different shale hydrocarbon fields and production periods. The research objective also includes evaluating the performance of top unconventional plays (Bakken, Barnett, and Eagle Ford). Productions by counties are analyzed and compared to see how they stack up against each other. One section of this study also sheds some light on the future of shale gas and tight oil plays based on the simulation of models created.

Well Production Performance Analysis for Shale Gas Reservoirs

Author : Liehui Zhang
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444643168
Total Pages : 388 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Well Production Performance Analysis for Shale Gas Reservoirs by : Liehui Zhang

Download or read book Well Production Performance Analysis for Shale Gas Reservoirs written by Liehui Zhang and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2019-05-16 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Well Production Performance Analysis for Shale Gas Reservoirs, Volume 66 presents tactics and discussions that are urgently needed by the petroleum community regarding unconventional oil and gas resources development and production. The book breaks down the mechanics of shale gas reservoirs and the use of mathematical models to analyze their performance. Features an in-depth analysis of shale gas horizontal fractured wells and how they differ from their conventional counterparts Includes detailed information on the testing of fractured horizontal wells before and after fracturing Offers in-depth analysis of numerical simulation and the importance of this tool for the development of shale gas reservoirs

Better Understanding of Production Decline in Shale Gas Wells

Author : Kananek Harongjit
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 568 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (895 download)

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Book Synopsis Better Understanding of Production Decline in Shale Gas Wells by : Kananek Harongjit

Download or read book Better Understanding of Production Decline in Shale Gas Wells written by Kananek Harongjit and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 568 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Production data from the Eagle Ford shale (an analog to the Alaska Shublik shale) was collected from two neighboring counties and analyzed to correlate well performance with completion parameters including length of horizontal wellbore and number of hydraulic fracturing stages. Thirty-eight dry gas wells with production history range of 18-43 months were analyzed using 6 different decline curve analysis (DCA) models including Arps' exponential, harmonic and hyperbolic, power law exponential (PLE), logistic growth analysis (LGA) and Duong's models. In the matching process, 2/3 of history was used to tune the DCA models and their forecasts were compared to the remaining 1/3 of real history. The matching results were analyzed based on production history length and flow regime to have better understanding of limitations and capabilities of each DCA model. Reservoir simulation models, constructed using range of realistic data and actual completion practices of 4 select wells, were employed to assess reasonable values of remaining reserve and remaining well life that were used as benchmarks for comparison with DCA results. The results showed that there was no strong correlation between well performance (average first year production rate) and the horizontal leg or the number of fracturing stages. This was an indication of extremely heterogeneous medium. In most cases, the accuracy of the DCA models increased when longer production history was used to tune the model parameters. LGA seems to be the most accurate DCA model since it gave the highest matching accuracy 71% of the total wells when using longest history length of 31 months. As the flow regime is concerned, LGA model also performed very well matched in 57% of the wells exhibiting only transient flow and 63% for the wells showing transient flow during early production time followed by boundary-dominated flow during late production. Moreover, the remaining reserve and well life of the select wells predicted by LGA fell into reasonably close range of the estimates from the reservoir simulations.

COMBINING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS AND GEOSTATISTICS TO FORECAST GAS PRODUCTION IN THE MARCELLUS SHALE.

Author : Zhenke Xi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis COMBINING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS AND GEOSTATISTICS TO FORECAST GAS PRODUCTION IN THE MARCELLUS SHALE. by : Zhenke Xi

Download or read book COMBINING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS AND GEOSTATISTICS TO FORECAST GAS PRODUCTION IN THE MARCELLUS SHALE. written by Zhenke Xi and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, in order to estimate the production potential at a new, prospective field site via simulation or material balance, one needs to collect various forms of expensive field data and/or make assumptions about the nature of the formation at that site. Decline curve analysis would not be applicable in this scenario, as producing wells need to pre-exist in the target field. The objective of our work is to make first-order forecasts of production rates at prospective, undrilled sites using only production data from existing wells in the entire play. This is accomplished through co-kriging of decline curve parameter values, where the parameter values are obtained at each existing well by fitting an appropriate decline model to the production history. Co-kriging gives the best linear unbiased prediction of parameter values at undrilled locations, and also estimates uncertainty in those predictions. Thus, we can obtain production forecasts at P10, P50, and P90, as well as calculate EUR at those same levels, across the spatial domain of the play.To demonstrate the proposed methodology, we use monthly gas flow rates and well locations from the Marcellus shale gas play in this research. Looking only at horizontal and directional wells, the gas production rates at each well are carefully filtered and screened. Also, we normalize the rates by perforation interval length. We keep only production histories of 24 months or longer in duration to ensure good decline curve fits. Ultimately, we are left with 5,637 production records. Here, we choose Duongs decline model to represent production decline in this shale gas play, and fitting of this decline curve is accomplished through ordinary least square regression.Interpolation is done by universal co-kriging with consideration to correlation between the four parameters in Duongs model, which also show linear trends (the parameters show dependency on the x and y spatial coordinates). Kriging gives us the optimal decline curve coefficients at new locations (P50 curve), as well as the variance in these coefficient estimates (used to establish P10 and P90 curves). We are also able to map EUR for 25 years across the study area. Finally, the universal co-kriging model is cross-validated with a leave-one-out scheme, which shows significant but not unreasonable error in decline curve coefficient prediction. The methods proposed are easy to implement and do not require various expensive data like permeability, bottom hole pressure, etc., giving operators a risk-based analysis of prospective sites. While we demonstrate the procedure on the Marcellus shale gas play, it is applicable to any play with existing producing wells. We also make this analysis available to the public in a user-friendly web app.

Challenges in Modelling and Simulation of Shale Gas Reservoirs

Author : Jebraeel Gholinezhad
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319707698
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Challenges in Modelling and Simulation of Shale Gas Reservoirs by : Jebraeel Gholinezhad

Download or read book Challenges in Modelling and Simulation of Shale Gas Reservoirs written by Jebraeel Gholinezhad and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-12-27 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book addresses the problems involved in the modelling and simulation of shale gas reservoirs, and details recent advances in the field. It discusses various modelling and simulation challenges, such as the complexity of fracture networks, adsorption phenomena, non-Darcy flow, and natural fracture networks, presenting the latest findings in these areas. It also discusses the difficulties of developing shale gas models, and compares analytical modelling and numerical simulations of shale gas reservoirs with those of conventional reservoirs. Offering a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art in developing shale gas models and simulators in the upstream oil industry, it allows readers to gain a better understanding of these reservoirs and encourages more systematic research on efficient exploitation of shale gas plays. It is a valuable resource for researchers interested in the modelling of unconventional reservoirs and graduate students studying reservoir engineering. It is also of interest to practising reservoir and production engineers.

Production Analysis and Forecasting of Shale Reservoirs Using Simple Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling

Author : Leopoldo Matias Ruiz Maraggi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (134 download)

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Book Synopsis Production Analysis and Forecasting of Shale Reservoirs Using Simple Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling by : Leopoldo Matias Ruiz Maraggi

Download or read book Production Analysis and Forecasting of Shale Reservoirs Using Simple Mechanistic and Statistical Modeling written by Leopoldo Matias Ruiz Maraggi and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate production analysis and forecasting of well’s performance is essential to estimate reserves and to develop strategies to optimize hydrocarbon recovery. In the case of shale resources, this task is particularly challenging for the following reasons. First, these reservoirs show long periods of transient linear flow in which the reservoir volume grows continuously over time acting without bounds. Second, variable operating conditions cause scatter and abrupt production changes. Finally, the presence of competing flow mechanisms, heterogeneities, and multi-phase flow effects make the production analysis more complex. Detailed numerical flow models can address the complexities present in unconventional reservoirs. However, these models suffer from the following limitations: (a) the uncertainty of many input parameters, (b) susceptibility to overfit the data, (c) lack of interpretability of their results, and (d) high computational expense. This dissertation provides new and simple mechanistic and statistical modeling tools suitable to improve the production analysis and forecasts of shale reservoirs. This work presents solutions to the following research problems. This study develops and applies a new two-phase (oil and gas) flow suitable to history-match and forecast production of tight-oil and gas-condensate reservoirs producing below bubble- and dew-point conditions, respectively. It solves flow equations in dimensionless form and uses only two scaling parameters (hydrocarbon in-place and characteristic time) to history-match production. For this reason, the model requires minimal time to run making it ideal for decline curve analysis on large numbers of wells. This research illustrates the development and application of a Bayesian framework that generates probabilistic production history matches and forecasts to address the uncertainty of model’s estimates. This work uses an adaptative Metropolis-Hastings Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to guarantee a fast convergence of the Markov chains by accounting for the correlation among model’s parameters. In addition, this study calibrates the model’s probabilistic estimates using hindcasting and evaluates the inferences robustness using posterior predictive checks. This dissertation examines the problem of evaluation, ranking and selection, and averaging of models for improved probabilistic production history-matching and forecasting. We illustrate the assessment of the predictive accuracy of four rate-time models using the expected log predictive density (elpd) accuracy metric along with cross-validation techniques (leave-one-out and leave-future-out). The elpd metric provides a measure of out-of-sample predictive accuracy of a model’s posterior distribution. The application of Pareto smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) allows to use cross-validation techniques without the need of refitting Bayesian models. Using the Bayesian Bootstrap, this work generates a model ensemble that weighs each individual model based on the accuracy of its predictions. Finally, this research applies a novel deconvolution technique to incorporate changing operating conditions into rate-time analysis of tight-oil and shale gas reservoirs. Furthermore, this work quantifies the errors and discusses the limitations of the standard rate-transient analysis technique used in production analysis of unconventional reservoirs: rate normalization and material balance time

Comparison of Emperical Decline Curve Analysis for Shale Wells

Author : Mohammed Sami A. Kanfar
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Comparison of Emperical Decline Curve Analysis for Shale Wells by : Mohammed Sami A. Kanfar

Download or read book Comparison of Emperical Decline Curve Analysis for Shale Wells written by Mohammed Sami A. Kanfar and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study compares four recently developed decline curve methods and the traditional Arps or Fetkovich approach. The four methods which are empirically formulated for shale and tight gas wells are: 1. Power Law Exponential Decline (PLE). 2. Stretched Exponential Decline (SEPD). 3. Duong Method. 4. Logistic Growth Model (LGM). Each method has different tuning parameters and equation forms. The main objective of this work is to determine the best method(s) in terms of Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) accuracy, goodness of fit, and ease of matching. In addition, these methods are compared against each other at different production times in order to understand the effect of production time on forecasts. As a part of validation process, all methods are benchmarked against simulation. This study compares the decline methods to four simulation cases which represent the common shale declines observed in the field. Shale wells, which are completed with horizontal wells and multiple traverse highly-conductive hydraulic fractures, exhibit long transient linear flow. Based on certain models, linear flow is preceded by bilinear flow if natural fractures are present. In addition to this, linear flow is succeeded by Boundary Dominated Flow (BDF) decline when pressure wave reaches boundary. This means four declines are possible, hence four simulation cases are required for comparison. To facilitate automatic data fitting, a non-linear regression program was developed using excel VBA. The program optimizes the Least-Square (LS) objective function to find the best fit. The used optimization algorithm is the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm (LMA) and it is used because of its robustness and ease of use. This work shows that all methods forecast different EURs and some fit certain simulation cases better than others. In addition, no method can forecast EUR accurately without reaching BDF. Using this work, engineers can choose the best method to forecast EUR after identifying the simulation case that is most analogous to their field wells. The VBA program and the matching procedure presented here can help engineers automate these methods into their forecasting sheets. The electronic version of this dissertation is accessible from http://hdl.handle.net/1969.1/151124

Shale Gas and Tight Oil Reservoir Simulation

Author : Wei Yu
Publisher : Gulf Professional Publishing
ISBN 13 : 0128138696
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Shale Gas and Tight Oil Reservoir Simulation by : Wei Yu

Download or read book Shale Gas and Tight Oil Reservoir Simulation written by Wei Yu and published by Gulf Professional Publishing. This book was released on 2018-07-29 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Shale Gas and Tight Oil Reservoir Simulation delivers the latest research and applications used to better manage and interpret simulating production from shale gas and tight oil reservoirs. Starting with basic fundamentals, the book then includes real field data that will not only generate reliable reserve estimation, but also predict the effective range of reservoir and fracture properties through multiple history matching solutions. Also included are new insights into the numerical modelling of CO2 injection for enhanced oil recovery in tight oil reservoirs. This information is critical for a better understanding of the impacts of key reservoir properties and complex fractures. Models the well performance of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs with complex fracture geometries Teaches how to perform sensitivity studies, history matching, production forecasts, and economic optimization for shale-gas and tight-oil reservoirs Helps readers investigate data mining techniques, including the introduction of nonparametric smoothing models

Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs

Author : James Cody Statton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs by : James Cody Statton

Download or read book Application of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model to Forecast Production in Shale Gas Reservoirs written by James Cody Statton and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Production forecasting in shale (ultra-low permeability) gas reservoirs is of great interest due to the advent of multi-stage fracturing and horizontal drilling. The well renowned production forecasting model, Arps' Hyperbolic Decline Model, is widely used in industry to forecast shale gas wells. Left unconstrained, the model often overestimates reserves by a great deal. A minimum decline rate is imposed to prevent overestimation of reserves but with less than ten years of production history available to analyze, an accurate minimum decline rate is currently unknown; an educated guess of 5% minimum decline is often imposed. Other decline curve models have been proposed with the theoretical advantage of being able to match linear flow followed by a transition to boundary dominated flow. This thesis investigates the applicability of the Stretched Exponential Production Decline Model (SEPD) and compares it to the industry standard, Arps' with a minimum decline rate. When possible, we investigate an SEPD type curve. Simulated data is analyzed to show advantages of the SEPD model and provide a comparison to Arps' model with an imposed minimum decline rate of 5% where the full production history is known. Long-term production behavior is provided by an analytical solution for a homogenous reservoir with homogenous hydraulic fractures. Various simulations from short-term linear flow (~1 year) to long-term linear flow (~20 years) show the ability of the models to handle onset of boundary dominated flow at various times during production history. SEPD provides more accurate reserves estimates when linear flow ends at 5 years or earlier. Both models provide sufficient reserves estimates for longer-term linear flow scenarios. Barnett Shale production data demonstrates the ability of the models to forecast field data. Denton and Tarrant County wells are analyzed as groups and individually. SEPD type curves generated with 2004 well groups provide forecasts for wells drilled in subsequent years. This study suggests a type curve is most useful when 24 months or less is available to forecast. The SEPD model generally provides more conservative forecasts and EUR estimates than Arps' model with a minimum decline rate of 5%.

Decline Curve Analysis and Enhanced Shale Oil Recovery Based on Eagle Ford Shale Data

Author : Dieudonne K. Delaihdem
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (876 download)

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Book Synopsis Decline Curve Analysis and Enhanced Shale Oil Recovery Based on Eagle Ford Shale Data by : Dieudonne K. Delaihdem

Download or read book Decline Curve Analysis and Enhanced Shale Oil Recovery Based on Eagle Ford Shale Data written by Dieudonne K. Delaihdem and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transient and fracture dominated flow regimes in tight permeability shale reservoirs with hydraulically fractured horizontal wells impose many unconventional challenges. These include execution of appropriate shale decline curve analysis and the optimization of hydrocarbons recovery. Additionally, short production profiles available are inadequate for accurate production decline analysis. This research assessed the effectiveness of Arps' decline curve analysis and recently established methods--power law exponential analysis, logistic growth analysis, Duong's method and the author's approach--to predict future production of horizontal wells in the Eagle Ford Shale. Simulation models investigated history matching, enhanced shale oil recovery, and drainage area beyond stimulated reservoir volume. Traditional Arps' hyperbolic method sufficiently analyzed past production rates, but inaccurately forecasted cumulative productions. The recent decline models show slight variations in their past performance evaluations and forecasting future production trends. The technique proposed and used in this work enhanced the successful application of Arps' hyperbolic decline from 32.5% to 80%. Simulation results indicate 4.0% primary oil recovery factor and 5.8% enhanced shale oil recovery factor using CO2 miscible injection. Based on pressure observed outside of the stimulated reservoir volume, limited to the range of data used in this study, drainage area outside stimulated reservoir volume is not significant.

Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales

Download Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales PDF Online Free

Author : Babak Akbarnejad Nesheli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (813 download)

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Book Synopsis Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales by : Babak Akbarnejad Nesheli

Download or read book Stretched Exponential Decline Model as a Probabilistic and Deterministic Tool for Production Forecasting and Reserve Estimation in Oil and Gas Shales written by Babak Akbarnejad Nesheli and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today everyone seems to agree that ultra-low permeability and shale reservoirs have become the potentials to transform North America's oil and gas industry to a new phase. Unfortunately, transient flow is of long duration (perhaps life of the well) in ultra-low permeability reservoirs, and traditional decline curve analysis (DCA) models can lead to significantly over-optimistic production forecasts without additional safeguards. Stretched Exponential decline model (SEDM) gives considerably more stabilized production forecast than traditional DCA models and in this work it is shown that it produces unchanging EUR forecasts after only two-three years of production data are available in selected reservoirs, notably the Barnett Shale. For an individual well, the SEDM model parameters, can be determined by the method of least squares in various ways, but the inherent nonlinear character of the least squares problem cannot be bypassed. To assure a unique solution to the parameter estimation problem, this work suggests a physics-based regularization approach, based on critical velocity concept. Applied to selected Barnett Shale gas wells, the suggested method leads to reliable and consistent EURs. To further understand the interaction of the different fracture properties on reservoir response and production decline curve behavior, a series of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) simulations were performed. Results show that at least a 3-layer model is required to reproduce the decline behavior as captured in the published SEDM parameters for Barnett Shale. Further, DFN modeling implies a large number of parameters like fracture density and fracture length are in such a way that their effect can be compensated by the other one. The results of DFN modeling of several Barnett Shale horizontal wells, with numerous fracture stages, showed a very good agreement with the estimated SEDM model for the same wells. Estimation of P90 reserves that meet SEC criteria is required by law for all companies that raise capital in the United States. Estimation of P50 and P10 reserves that meet SPE/WPC/AAPG/SPEE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS) criteria is important for internal resource inventories for most companies. In this work a systematic methodology was developed to quantify the range of uncertainty in production forecast using SEDM. This methodology can be used as a probabilistic tool to quantify P90, P50, and P10 reserves and hence might provide one possible way to satisfy the various legal and technical-society-suggested criteria.

Shale Analytics

Author : Shahab D. Mohaghegh
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319487531
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Shale Analytics by : Shahab D. Mohaghegh

Download or read book Shale Analytics written by Shahab D. Mohaghegh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-02-09 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes the application of modern information technology to reservoir modeling and well management in shale. While covering Shale Analytics, it focuses on reservoir modeling and production management of shale plays, since conventional reservoir and production modeling techniques do not perform well in this environment. Topics covered include tools for analysis, predictive modeling and optimization of production from shale in the presence of massive multi-cluster, multi-stage hydraulic fractures. Given the fact that the physics of storage and fluid flow in shale are not well-understood and well-defined, Shale Analytics avoids making simplifying assumptions and concentrates on facts (Hard Data - Field Measurements) to reach conclusions. Also discussed are important insights into understanding completion practices and re-frac candidate selection and design. The flexibility and power of the technique is demonstrated in numerous real-world situations.

Development and Application of a Specialized Type Curve for Analysis of Shale Gas Production Performances

Author : Xiang Xu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (971 download)

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Book Synopsis Development and Application of a Specialized Type Curve for Analysis of Shale Gas Production Performances by : Xiang Xu

Download or read book Development and Application of a Specialized Type Curve for Analysis of Shale Gas Production Performances written by Xiang Xu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding production performances of shale gas wells is important for reserves assessment and production optimization. Type curve analysis is a practical method used in the industry; but there are a number of limitations in applying traditional type curves in shale gas reservoirs because of the unique storage and flow mechanisms in shale gas reservoir. Thus specialized type curves are necessary.In this research, first I understood the storage and flow mechanisms in conventional and shale gas reservoirs; then I critically reviewed development and applications of type curves in conventional and shale gas reservoirs. The third step I developed a specialized multiphase, multi-mechanics type curves capable of analyzing production performances of shale gas wells based on our numerical simulation results, and finally applied and validated my type curves in a Marcellus well. This newly developed type curves could help engineers analyze shale gas well performances and identify potential production issues in a systematic and pragmatic manner.

Informing the Modified-Hyperbolic Decline Curve0́9s Minimum Decline Parameter with Numerical Simulation in Unconventional Reservoirs

Download Informing the Modified-Hyperbolic Decline Curve0́9s Minimum Decline Parameter with Numerical Simulation in Unconventional Reservoirs PDF Online Free

Author : Zakary Kypfer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (16 download)

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Book Synopsis Informing the Modified-Hyperbolic Decline Curve0́9s Minimum Decline Parameter with Numerical Simulation in Unconventional Reservoirs by : Zakary Kypfer

Download or read book Informing the Modified-Hyperbolic Decline Curve0́9s Minimum Decline Parameter with Numerical Simulation in Unconventional Reservoirs written by Zakary Kypfer and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: ne of the most important aspects in the life-cycle of a petroleum well is understanding, and being able to reasonably predict, the total hydrocarbon output that a well will have through its producing life. The estimation of reserves has strong economic and legal implications that will not only determine whether a well-drilling plan is viable but also the worth of a company itself. This study aims to better understand the two primary production forecasting methods used in the petroleum industry: decline curve analyses and numerical reservoir simulations, and their ability to complement one another to make a better-informed production forecast when used together. Decline curve analyses have a heavy reliance on prior hydrocarbon production data which presents difficulty in forecasting during early-term behavior due to a lack of production data; however, reservoir simulations are stronger in early well-life because they are based more heavily on reservoir parameters. The objective is to use reservoir simulations to inform the decline curve's early time behavior, by informing parameters in their equations such as Dmin, while developing a correlational relationship between the two forecasting techniques that could be applied and translated to other reservoirs in the future. A decline curve analysis was performed on a three-well study area and Dmin values of 6%, 8%, and 10% were evaluated. The matching process of the decline curves heavily relied on the cumulative production in addition to the production rates, which used a thirty-day rolling average of the daily production data. Two equivalent numerical reservoir simulation models were built for the Eagle Ford which primarily used literature sourced values for the properties. The models were history matched to the observed data very well, though each model indicated different conclusions for a suggested Dmin value. Further compounding the results, the range of uncertainty in the matrix porosity property is larger than the range of the Dmin values. Due to this, the authors are not able to use the simulation models to inform parameters in decline curve analyses nor attempt to translate that relationship to other reservoirs.

Development of New Decline Model for Shale Oil Reserves

Author : Samit Shah
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Development of New Decline Model for Shale Oil Reserves by : Samit Shah

Download or read book Development of New Decline Model for Shale Oil Reserves written by Samit Shah and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis provides a new methodology to forecast ultimate recovery, based on more reliable production forecast for shale oil wells using historical production data. Compared to available decline curve methods including Arps (AIME: 160, 228-247), Valko (SPE 134231) and Duong (SPE 137748), this method is more accurate and more conservative. Production forecasts play a vital role in determining the value of oil or gas wells, and improved accuracy enhances management decisions on field development. The new, more accurate method was verified using both field data and numerical simulations. This method can potentially be used in most shale reservoirs producing single-phase liquid.

Probabilistic Oil and Gas Production Forecasting Using Machine Learning

Author : Robert Andrais
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (133 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Oil and Gas Production Forecasting Using Machine Learning by : Robert Andrais

Download or read book Probabilistic Oil and Gas Production Forecasting Using Machine Learning written by Robert Andrais and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis improves oil- and gas-well profitability by quantifying the uncertainty of the production-forecasting process, using probabilistic machine learning (ML) techniques. A Bayesian Neural Network successfully modelled a complex shale gas reservoir system (Eagle Ford), generating a production forecast with 5% mean absolute percent error. This result is 10%-35% more accurate than traditional decline curve analysis. These forecasts also quantified the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, providing plausible probabilistic P10 and P90 values. This range provides analysts with the capability of making informed strategic decisions that consider risk. Next, the model was applied to predict reserves (estimated ultimate recovery) and the underlying reservoir quality. These predictions were combined with unsupervised learning techniques (Gaussian Mixture Modelling), creating gas and oil sweet-spot maps. Finally, this workflow's robustness was demonstrated by artificially reducing data by 93%; indeed, the algorithm could reproduce the full-dataset results with a 71%-91% Pearson correlation, despite this reduction. Supporting this workflow creation is an evaluation of relevant research, data processing, feature engineering, documentation of the probabilistic ML structure, and discussion of model performance using systems analysis.