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Procyclical Fiscal Policy
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Book Synopsis Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? by : Alberto Alesina
Download or read book Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? written by Alberto Alesina and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many countries, especially developing ones, follow procyclical fiscal polices, namely spending goes up (taxes go down) in booms and spending goes down (taxes go up) in recessions. We provide an explanation for this suboptimal fiscal policy based upon political distortions and incentives for less-than-benevolent government to appropriate rents. Voters have incentives similar to the "starving the Leviathan" classic argument, and demand more public goods or fewer taxes to prevent governments from appropriating rents when the economy is doing well. We test this argument against more traditional explanations based purely on borrowing constraints, with a reasonable amount of success.
Book Synopsis Procyclical Fiscal Policy by : Toshihiro Ihori
Download or read book Procyclical Fiscal Policy written by Toshihiro Ihori and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-28 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom dictates that a fiscal policy should be counter-cyclical. However, contrary to this conventional views, recent research has demonstrated that fiscal policy is actually procyclical in most developing countries. In this book, we attempt to propose a new interpretation of this procyclicality after reviewing theoretical and empirical evolution of the research. In particular, by incorporating the political effort behavior of private agents into a weak government model, we explore how income fluctuations affect the optimal budget deficits in a political economy. If the government can control the political behavior, normally, the optimal budget deficit should rise in a recession as a first-best case; however, interestingly, a recession does not necessarily prompt an increase in the budget deficits in a second-best political economy. The response of the budget deficits to income fluctuations mainly depends on the efficiency of political effort, which may correspond to the degree of democracy and bureaucratic efficiency of the governments. We test the prediction of the pro-cyclical fiscal policy and find it applicable for democratic countries with semi-efficient governments including Japan.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: by : Roberto Perotti
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: written by Roberto Perotti and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys fiscal policy in developing countries from the point of view of long-run growth. The first section reviews existing methodologies to estimate the effects of fiscal policy shocks and of systematic fiscal policy, with time series or with cross-sectional methods, and their applicability to developing countries. The second section surveys optimal fiscal policy in developing countries, by considering the role of the intertemporal government budget, and sustainability and solvency. It also reviews the fuzzy debate on "fiscal space" and "macroeconomic space" - and the usefulness (or lack thereof) of these terms for policy analysis. The third section asks what theory tells us about the optimal cyclical behavior of fiscal policy in developing countries. It shows that it very much depends on the assumptions about the interactions between credit market imperfections at the individual, firms, or government level, and on the supply of external funds to the country. Different sets of assumptions lead to different implications about optimal cyclical behavior. The available evidence on the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy, and possible reasons for the observed prevalence of a procyclical behavior in developing countries, is also reviewed. If one agrees that fiscal policy is indeed less countercyclical than we think is optimal, the issue is how to correct the problem. One obvious question is why government do not self-insure, i.e. why they do not accumulate assets in upturns and decumulate them in downturns. This leads to the analysis of fiscal rules and stabilization funds, in the fourth section. The last section concludes with what the author considers important research and policy questions in each part.
Book Synopsis Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS by : Paolo Manasse
Download or read book Procyclical Fiscal Policy: Shocks, Rules, and Institutions - A View From MARS written by Paolo Manasse and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2006-01-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the roles of shocks, rules, and institutions as possible sources of procyclicality in fiscal policy. By employing parametric and nonparametric techniques, I reach the following four main conclusions. First, policymakers' reactions to the business cycle is different depending on the state of the economy-fiscal policy is "acyclical" during economic bad times, while it is largely procyclical during good times. Second, fiscal rules and fiscal responsibility laws tend to reduce the deficit bias on average, and seem to enhance, rather than to weaken, countercyclical policy. However, the evidence also suggests that fiscal frameworks do not exert independent effects when the quality of institutions is accounted for. Third, strong institutions are associated to a lower deficit bias, but their effect on procyclicality is different in good and bad times, and it is subject to decreasing returns. Fourth, unlike developed countries, fiscal policy in developing countries is procyclical even during (moderate) recessions; in "good times," however, fiscal policy is actually more procyclical in developed economies.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth by : Guillermo E. Perry
Download or read book Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth written by Guillermo E. Perry and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2007-10-19 with total page 354 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal policy in Latin America has been guided primarily by short-term liquidity targets whose observance was taken as the main exponent of fiscal prudence, with attention focused almost exclusively on the levels of public debt and the cash deficit. Very little attention was paid to the effects of fiscal policy on growth and on macroeconomic volatility over the cycle. Important issues such as the composition of public expenditures (and its effects on growth), the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize cyclical fluctuations, and the currency composition of public debt were largely neglected. As a result, fiscal policy has often amplified cyclical volatility and dampened growth. 'Fiscal Policy, Stabilization, and Growth' explores the conduct of fiscal policy in Latin America and its consequences for macroeconomic stability and long-term growth. In particular, the book highlights the procyclical and anti-investment biases embedded in the region's fiscal policies, explores their causes and macroeconomic consequences, and asesses their possible solutions.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World by : Ms.Elva Bova
Download or read book Fiscal Rules and the Procyclicality of Fiscal Policy in the Developing World written by Ms.Elva Bova and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper documents the spread of fiscal rules in the developing world and investigates the relation between fiscal rules and procyclical fiscal policy. We find that, since the early 2000s, developing countries outnumbered advanced economies as users of fiscal rules. Rules were adopted either as part of the toolkit to join currency unions or to strengthen fiscal frameworks during and after large stabilization and policy reform episodes. The paper also finds that the greater use of fiscal rules has not shielded these countries from procyclicality, since fiscal policy remains procyclical following the adoption of a fiscal rule. We find partial evidence that some features of “second generation” rules, such as the use of cyclically-adjusted targets, well-defined escape clauses, together with stronger legal and enforcement arrangements, may be associated with less procyclicality.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Crises by : Mrs.Kerstin Gerling
Download or read book Fiscal Crises written by Mrs.Kerstin Gerling and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-04-03 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A key objective of fiscal policy is to maintain the sustainability of public finances and avoid crises. Remarkably, there is very limited analysis on fiscal crises. This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies. The data sheds some light on policies and economic dynamics around crises. LIDCs, which are usually seen as more vulnerable to shocks, appear to suffer the least in crisis periods. Surprisingly, advanced economies face greater turbulence (growth declines sharply in the first two years of the crisis), with half of them experiencing economic contractions. Fiscal policy is usually procyclical as countries curtail expenditure growth when economic activity weakens. We also find that the decline in economic growth is magnified if accompanied by a financial crisis.
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy in the European Union by : J. Ferreiro
Download or read book Fiscal Policy in the European Union written by J. Ferreiro and published by Springer. This book was released on 2008-11-27 with total page 235 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a comprehensive analysis of national fiscal policies in the European Union and in the European Monetary Union. Adopting a critical perspective, the book offers a deep insight into the consequences of the current strategy of national fiscal policies on economic activity.
Book Synopsis Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy by : Ms.Martine Guerguil
Download or read book Flexible Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Fiscal Policy written by Ms.Martine Guerguil and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-22 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the impact of different types of flexible fiscal rules on the procyclicality of fiscal policy with propensity scores-matching techniques, thus mitigating traditional self-selection problems. It finds that not all fiscal rules have the same impact: the design matters. Specifically, investment-friendly rules reduce the procyclicality of both overall and investment spending. The effect appears stronger in bad times and when the rule is enacted at the national level. The introduction of escape clauses in fiscal rules does not seem to affect the cyclical stance of public spending. The inclusion of cyclical adjustment features in spending rules yields broadly similar results. The results are mixed for cyclically-adjusted budget balance rules: enacting the latter is associated with countercyclical movements in overall spending, but with procyclical changes in investment spending. Structural factors, such as past debt, the level of development, the volatility of terms of trade, natural resources endowment, government stability, and the legal enforcement and monitoring arrangements backing the rule also influence the link between fiscal rules and countercyclicality. The results are robust to a wide set of alternative specifications.
Book Synopsis Promoting Fiscal Discipline by : Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar
Download or read book Promoting Fiscal Discipline written by Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-10-18 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fiscal discipline is essential to improve and sustain economic performance, maintain macroeconomic stability, and reduce vulnerabilities. Discipline is especially important if countries, industrial as well as developing, are to successfully meet the challenges, and reap the benefits, of economic and financial globalization. Lack of fiscal discipline generally stems from the injudicious use of policy discretion. The benefits of discretion are seen in terms of the ability of policymakers to respond to unexpected shocks and in allowing elected political representatives to fulfill their mandates. But discretion can be misused, resulting in persistent deficits and procyclical policies, rising debt levels, and, over time, a loss in policy credibility. The authors first explore the role of discretion in fiscal policy, and the extent, consequences, and causes of procyclicality, particularly in good times. They then examine how a variety of institutional approaches—fiscal rules, fiscal responsibility laws, and fiscal agencies—can help improve fiscal discipline. While each of these approaches can play a useful role, the authors suggest that a strategy combining them is likely to be particularly beneficial. Although such a strategy requires political commitment and effective fiscal management, at the same time, the strategy itself can bolster political commitment by highlighting the restraints on government and raising the costs of failing to respect them.
Book Synopsis Procyclical Fiscal Policy and Asset Market Incompleteness by : Andrés Fernández
Download or read book Procyclical Fiscal Policy and Asset Market Incompleteness written by Andrés Fernández and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To explain the fact that government spending and tax policy are procyclical in emerging and developing countries, we develop a model for the joint behavior of optimal tax rates and government spending over the business cycle. Our set-up relies on financial frictions, which have been shown to be critical features of emerging markets, captured by various degrees of asset market incompleteness as well as varying levels of debt-elastic interest rate spreads. We first uncover a novel theoretical result within a simple static framework: incomplete markets can account for procyclical government spending but not necessarily procyclical tax policy. Explaining procyclical tax policy also requires that the ratio of private to public consumption comoves positively with the business cycle, which leads to larger fluctuations in the tax base. We then show that the procyclicality of tax policy holds in a more realistic DSGE model calibrated to emerging markets. Finally, we illustrate how larger financial frictions, which amplify the business cycle through more procyclical fiscal policies, have sizeable Lucas-type welfare costs.
Book Synopsis Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? by : Alberto F. Alesina
Download or read book Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical? written by Alberto F. Alesina and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many countries, especially developing ones, follow procyclical fiscal policies, namely spending goes up (taxes go down) in booms and spending goes down (taxes go up) in recessions. We provide an explanation for this suboptimal fiscal policy based upon political distortions and incentives for less-than-benevolent government to appropriate rents. Voters have incentives similar to the "starving the Leviathan" classic argument, and demand more public goods or fewer taxes to prevent governments from appropriating rents when the economy is doing well. We test this argument against more traditional explanations based purely on borrowing constraints, with a reasonable amount of success.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498344658 Total Pages :257 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Long-Term Growth written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-20 with total page 257 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
Book Synopsis Is Fiscal Policy the Answer? by : Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Download or read book Is Fiscal Policy the Answer? written by Blanca Moreno-Dodson and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-11-15 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effects of fiscal policy measures, both taxes and public spending, adopted by developing countries in response to the 2009 global crisis are still uncertain. This book discusses them using an analytical framework that allows for distilling possible implications on growth and social welfare.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy by : Ernesto Talvi
Download or read book Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy written by Ernesto Talvi and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during expansions, while the reverse is true in recessions). To explain this puzzle, we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending. Given this distortion, a government that faces large (and perfectly anticipated) fluctuations in the tax base will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy. We argue that the differences in fiscal policy between the G-7 countries and developing countries can be traced back to the fact that the tax base is much more volatile in developing countries than in the G-7 countries.
Book Synopsis Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries by : Mr.Tetsuya Konuki
Download or read book Cyclical Behavior of Fiscal Policy among Sub-Saharan African Countries written by Mr.Tetsuya Konuki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-08-24 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excessively procyclical fiscal policy can be harmful. This paper investigates to what extent the fiscal policies of sub-Saharan African countries were procyclical in recent years and the reasons for the degree of fiscal procyclicality among these countries. It finds that a tendency for procyclical fiscal policy was particularly pronounced among oil exporters and after the global financial crisis. It also finds a statistically significant causal link running from deeper financial markets and higher reserves coverage to lower fiscal policy procyclicality. Fiscal rules supported by strong political commitment and institutions seem to be key to facilitating progress for deeper financial markets and stronger reserves coverage.
