Preventing Catastrophic Failures With Weak Forewarning Signals

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Preventing Catastrophic Failures with Weak Forewarning Signals

Author : H. Dharma Kwon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Preventing Catastrophic Failures with Weak Forewarning Signals by : H. Dharma Kwon

Download or read book Preventing Catastrophic Failures with Weak Forewarning Signals written by H. Dharma Kwon and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider the problem of a firm facing failures with weak forewarning signals. In the base model that we study, the firm watches for signals of a random arrival of a disruptive innovation and continuously updates the posterior probability that a disruptive innovation has already happened. A disruptive innovation is marked by a rapid increase in the growth rate of the market for a new technology, and it is followed by a random arrival of catastrophic failure of the firm. The firm can invest capital to adopt the innovation to prevent failure. The optimal policy is to adopt it when the posterior probability exceeds an optimally chosen threshold. We investigate the probability of failure under the optimal policy when the cost of failure is large and the arrival rate of disruptive innovation is low. The probability of failure is close to one if the arrival rate is extremely low while it is close to zero if the arrival rate is moderate. We also consider an extension of the base model to incorporate recurrence of disruptive innovation; when the arrival rate is moderate, the optimal threshold and the failure probability can be significantly larger than those of the base model.

The 2030 Spike

Author : Colin Mason
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136555110
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (365 download)

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Book Synopsis The 2030 Spike by : Colin Mason

Download or read book The 2030 Spike written by Colin Mason and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-17 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The clock is relentlessly ticking! Our world teeters on a knife-edge between a peaceful and prosperous future for all, and a dark winter of death and destruction that threatens to smother the light of civilization. Within 30 years, in the 2030 decade, six powerful 'drivers' will converge with unprecedented force in a statistical spike that could tear humanity apart and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. Depleted fuel supplies, massive population growth, poverty, global climate change, famine, growing water shortages and international lawlessness are on a crash course with potentially catastrophic consequences. In the face of both doomsaying and denial over the state of our world, Colin Mason cuts through the rhetoric and reams of conflicting data to muster the evidence to illustrate a broad picture of the world as it is, and our possible futures. Ultimately his message is clear; we must act decisively, collectively and immediately to alter the trajectory of humanity away from catastrophe. Offering over 100 priorities for immediate action, The 2030 Spike serves as a guidebook for humanity through the treacherous minefields and wastelands ahead to a bright, peaceful and prosperous future in which all humans have the opportunity to thrive and build a better civilization. This book is powerful and essential reading for all people concerned with the future of humanity and planet earth.

My Forbidden Face

Author : Latifa
Publisher : Virago
ISBN 13 : 0748109129
Total Pages : 129 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis My Forbidden Face by : Latifa

Download or read book My Forbidden Face written by Latifa and published by Virago. This book was released on 2008-09-04 with total page 129 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Latifa was born into an educated middle-class Afghan family in Kabul in 1980. She dreamed of one day of becoming a journalist, she was interested in fashion, movies and friends. Her father was in the import/export business and her mother was a doctor. Then in September 1996, Taliban soldiers seized power in Kabul. From that moment, Latifa, just 16 years old became a prisoner in her own home. Her school was closed. Her mother was banned from working. The simplest and most basic freedoms - walking down the street, looking out a window - were no longer hers. She was now forced to wear a chadri. My Forbidden Face provides a poignant and highly personal account of life under the Taliban regime. With painful honesty and clarity Latifa describes the way she watched her world falling apart, in the name of a fanatical interpretation of a faith that she could not comprehend. Her voice captures a lost innocence, but also echoes her determination to live in freedom and hope. Earlier this year, Latifa and her parents escaped Afghanistan with the help of a French-based Afghan resistance group.

Dark Age

Author : Pierce Brown
Publisher : Hachette UK
ISBN 13 : 1473646758
Total Pages : 800 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (736 download)

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Book Synopsis Dark Age by : Pierce Brown

Download or read book Dark Age written by Pierce Brown and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2019-07-30 with total page 800 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: SUNDAY TIMES BESTSELLER ***The explosive fifth novel in the Red Rising Series*** The Number One New York Times bestselling author of Morning Star returns to the Red Rising universe with the thrilling sequel to Iron Gold. He broke the chains Then broke the world.... A decade ago Darrow led a revolution, and laid the foundations for a new world. Now he's an outlaw. Cast out of the very Republic he founded, with half his fleet destroyed, he wages a rogue war on Mercury. Outnumbered, outgunned but not out thought. Is he still the hero who broke the chains? Or will he become the agent of the world's destruction? Is it time for another legend to take his place? Lysander au Lune, the displaced heir to the old empire, has returned to the Core. First he must survive Gold backstabbing, then Darrow. Will he bring peace to mankind at the edge of his sword? And on Luna, Mustang, the embattled sovereign of the Republic, must save both democracy and her exiled husband millions of kilometres away. The only thing certain in the Solar System is treachery. And that the Rising is entering a new Dark Age. PRAISE FOR THE RED RISING SERIES: 'Pierce Brown's empire-crushing debut is a sprawling vision . . . Ender, Katniss, and now Darrow' - Scott Sigler, New York Times bestselling author of Pandemic '[A] top-notch debut novel . . . Red Rising ascends above a crowded dystopian field' - USA Today '[A] spectacular adventure . . . one heart-pounding ride . . . Pierce Brown's dizzyingly good debut novel evokes The Hunger Games, Lord of the Flies, and Ender's Game. . . . [Red Rising] has everything it needs to become meteoric' - Entertainment Weekly

A Safer Future

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309045460
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis A Safer Future by : National Research Council

Download or read book A Safer Future written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1991-02-01 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Initial priorities for U.S. participation in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction, declared by the United Nations, are contained in this volume. It focuses on seven issues: hazard and risk assessment; awareness and education; mitigation; preparedness for emergency response; recovery and reconstruction; prediction and warning; learning from disasters; and U.S. participation internationally. The committee presents its philosophy of calls for broad public and private participation to reduce the toll of disasters.

The Sense of an Ending

Author : Julian Barnes
Publisher : Vintage
ISBN 13 : 0307957330
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (79 download)

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Book Synopsis The Sense of an Ending by : Julian Barnes

Download or read book The Sense of an Ending written by Julian Barnes and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2011-10-05 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: BOOKER PRIZE WINNER • NATIONAL BESTSELLER • A novel that follows a middle-aged man as he contends with a past he never much thought about—until his closest childhood friends return with a vengeance: one of them from the grave, another maddeningly present. A novel so compelling that it begs to be read in a single setting, The Sense of an Ending has the psychological and emotional depth and sophistication of Henry James at his best, and is a stunning achievement in Julian Barnes's oeuvre. Tony Webster thought he left his past behind as he built a life for himself, and his career has provided him with a secure retirement and an amicable relationship with his ex-wife and daughter, who now has a family of her own. But when he is presented with a mysterious legacy, he is forced to revise his estimation of his own nature and place in the world.

Facing Hazards and Disasters

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309101786
Total Pages : 409 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Facing Hazards and Disasters by : National Research Council

Download or read book Facing Hazards and Disasters written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-09-10 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Social science research conducted since the late 1970's has contributed greatly to society's ability to mitigate and adapt to natural, technological, and willful disasters. However, as evidenced by Hurricane Katrina, the Indian Ocean tsunami, the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, and other recent events, hazards and disaster research and its application could be improved greatly. In particular, more studies should be pursued that compare how the characteristics of different types of events-including predictability, forewarning, magnitude, and duration of impact-affect societal vulnerability and response. This book includes more than thirty recommendations for the hazards and disaster community.

ASME Technical Papers

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis ASME Technical Papers by :

Download or read book ASME Technical Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans

Author : United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 75 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (696 download)

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Book Synopsis Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans by : United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency

Download or read book Developing and Maintaining Emergency Operations Plans written by United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 101 provides guidelines on developing emergency operations plans (EOP). It promotes a common understanding of the fundamentals of risk-informed planning and decision making to help planners examine a hazard or threat and produce integrated, coordinated, and synchronized plans. The goal of CPG 101 is to make the planning process routine across all phases of emergency management and for all homeland security mission areas. This Guide helps planners at all levels of government in their efforts to develop and maintain viable all-hazards, all-threats EOPs. Accomplished properly, planning provides a methodical way to engage the whole community in thinking through the life cycle of a potential crisis, determining required capabilities, and establishing a framework for roles and responsibilities. It shapes how a community envisions and shares a desired outcome, selects effective ways to achieve it, and communicates expected results. Each jurisdiction's plans must reflect what that community will do to address its specific risks with the unique resources it has or can obtain.

Safeguarding Your Technology

Author : Tom Szuba
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Safeguarding Your Technology by : Tom Szuba

Download or read book Safeguarding Your Technology written by Tom Szuba and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Paper

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 570 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Paper by :

Download or read book Paper written by and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Ask a Manager

Author : Alison Green
Publisher : Ballantine Books
ISBN 13 : 0399181822
Total Pages : 306 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (991 download)

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Book Synopsis Ask a Manager by : Alison Green

Download or read book Ask a Manager written by Alison Green and published by Ballantine Books. This book was released on 2018-05-01 with total page 306 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the creator of the popular website Ask a Manager and New York’s work-advice columnist comes a witty, practical guide to 200 difficult professional conversations—featuring all-new advice! There’s a reason Alison Green has been called “the Dear Abby of the work world.” Ten years as a workplace-advice columnist have taught her that people avoid awkward conversations in the office because they simply don’t know what to say. Thankfully, Green does—and in this incredibly helpful book, she tackles the tough discussions you may need to have during your career. You’ll learn what to say when • coworkers push their work on you—then take credit for it • you accidentally trash-talk someone in an email then hit “reply all” • you’re being micromanaged—or not being managed at all • you catch a colleague in a lie • your boss seems unhappy with your work • your cubemate’s loud speakerphone is making you homicidal • you got drunk at the holiday party Praise for Ask a Manager “A must-read for anyone who works . . . [Alison Green’s] advice boils down to the idea that you should be professional (even when others are not) and that communicating in a straightforward manner with candor and kindness will get you far, no matter where you work.”—Booklist (starred review) “The author’s friendly, warm, no-nonsense writing is a pleasure to read, and her advice can be widely applied to relationships in all areas of readers’ lives. Ideal for anyone new to the job market or new to management, or anyone hoping to improve their work experience.”—Library Journal (starred review) “I am a huge fan of Alison Green’s Ask a Manager column. This book is even better. It teaches us how to deal with many of the most vexing big and little problems in our workplaces—and to do so with grace, confidence, and a sense of humor.”—Robert Sutton, Stanford professor and author of The No Asshole Rule and The Asshole Survival Guide “Ask a Manager is the ultimate playbook for navigating the traditional workforce in a diplomatic but firm way.”—Erin Lowry, author of Broke Millennial: Stop Scraping By and Get Your Financial Life Together

Landslides - Disaster Risk Reduction

Author : Kyoji Sassa
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 354069966X
Total Pages : 638 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (46 download)

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Book Synopsis Landslides - Disaster Risk Reduction by : Kyoji Sassa

Download or read book Landslides - Disaster Risk Reduction written by Kyoji Sassa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-10-27 with total page 638 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book documents the First World Landslide Forum, which was jointly organized by the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), eight UN organizations (UNESCO, WMO, FAO, UN/ISDR, UNU, UNEP, World Bank, UNDP) and four NGOs (International Council for Science, World Federation of Engineering Organizations, Kyoto Univ. and Japan Landslide Society) in Tokyo in 2008. The material consists of four parts: The Open Forum "Progress of IPL Activities; Four Thematic Lectures in the Plenary Symposium "Global Landslide Risk Reduction"; Six Keynote Lectures in the Plenary session; and the aims and overviews of eighteen parallel sessions (dealing with various aspects necessary for landslide disaster risk reduction such as: observations from space; climate change and slope instability; landslides threatening heritage sites; the economic and social impact of landslides; monitoring, prediction and early warning; and risk-management strategies in urban area, etc.) Thus it enables the reader to benefit from a wide range of research intended to reduce risk due to landslide disasters as presented in the first global multi-disciplinary meeting.

Humanitarian Military Intervention

Author : Taylor B. Seybolt
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0199252432
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis Humanitarian Military Intervention by : Taylor B. Seybolt

Download or read book Humanitarian Military Intervention written by Taylor B. Seybolt and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2007 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Military intervention in a conflict without a reasonable prospect of success is unjustifiable, especially when it is done in the name of humanity. Couched in the debate on the responsibility to protect civilians from violence and drawing on traditional 'just war' principles, the centralpremise of this book is that humanitarian military intervention can be justified as a policy option only if decision makers can be reasonably sure that intervention will do more good than harm. This book asks, 'Have past humanitarian military interventions been successful?' It defines success as saving lives and sets out a methodology for estimating the number of lives saved by a particular military intervention. Analysis of 17 military operations in six conflict areas that were thedefining cases of the 1990s-northern Iraq after the Gulf War, Somalia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Rwanda, Kosovo and East Timor-shows that the majority were successful by this measure. In every conflict studied, however, some military interventions succeeded while others failed, raising the question, 'Why have some past interventions been more successful than others?' This book argues that the central factors determining whether a humanitarian intervention succeeds are theobjectives of the intervention and the military strategy employed by the intervening states. Four types of humanitarian military intervention are offered: helping to deliver emergency aid, protecting aid operations, saving the victims of violence and defeating the perpetrators of violence. Thefocus on strategy within these four types allows an exploration of the political and military dimensions of humanitarian intervention and highlights the advantages and disadvantages of each of the four types.Humanitarian military intervention is controversial. Scepticism is always in order about the need to use military force because the consequences can be so dire. Yet it has become equally controversial not to intervene when a government subjects its citizens to massive violation of their basic humanrights. This book recognizes the limits of humanitarian intervention but does not shy away from suggesting how military force can save lives in extreme circumstances.

Hospital and Healthcare Security

Author : Tony W York
Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 0080886027
Total Pages : 760 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis Hospital and Healthcare Security by : Tony W York

Download or read book Hospital and Healthcare Security written by Tony W York and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2009-10-12 with total page 760 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hospital and Healthcare Security, Fifth Edition, examines the issues inherent to healthcare and hospital security, including licensing, regulatory requirements, litigation, and accreditation standards. Building on the solid foundation laid down in the first four editions, the book looks at the changes that have occurred in healthcare security since the last edition was published in 2001. It consists of 25 chapters and presents examples from Canada, the UK, and the United States. It first provides an overview of the healthcare environment, including categories of healthcare, types of hospitals, the nonhospital side of healthcare, and the different stakeholders. It then describes basic healthcare security risks/vulnerabilities and offers tips on security management planning. The book also discusses security department organization and staffing, management and supervision of the security force, training of security personnel, security force deployment and patrol activities, employee involvement and awareness of security issues, implementation of physical security safeguards, parking control and security, and emergency preparedness. Healthcare security practitioners and hospital administrators will find this book invaluable. - Practical support for healthcare security professionals, including operationally proven policies, and procedures - Specific assistance in preparing plans and materials tailored to healthcare security programs - Summary tables and sample forms bring together key data, facilitating ROI discussions with administrators and other departments - General principles clearly laid out so readers can apply the industry standards most appropriate to their own environment NEW TO THIS EDITION: - Quick-start section for hospital administrators who need an overview of security issues and best practices

Making Data Talk

Author : David E. Nelson (M.D.)
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 019538153X
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (953 download)

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Book Synopsis Making Data Talk by : David E. Nelson (M.D.)

Download or read book Making Data Talk written by David E. Nelson (M.D.) and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2009 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors summarize and synthesize research on the selection and presentation of data pertinent to public health and provide practical suggestions, based on this research summary and synthesis, on how scientists and other public health practitioners can better communicate data to the public, policy makers and the press.

Identifying and Managing Project Risk

Author : Tom Kendrick
Publisher : AMACOM
ISBN 13 : 0814413412
Total Pages : 370 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying and Managing Project Risk by : Tom Kendrick

Download or read book Identifying and Managing Project Risk written by Tom Kendrick and published by AMACOM. This book was released on 2009-02-27 with total page 370 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Winner of the Project Management Institute’s David I. Cleland Project Management Literature Award 2010 It’s no wonder that project managers spend so much time focusing their attention on risk identification. Important projects tend to be time constrained, pose huge technical challenges, and suffer from a lack of adequate resources. Identifying and Managing Project Risk, now updated and consistent with the very latest Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK)® Guide, takes readers through every phase of a project, showing them how to consider the possible risks involved at every point in the process. Drawing on real-world situations and hundreds of examples, the book outlines proven methods, demonstrating key ideas for project risk planning and showing how to use high-level risk assessment tools. Analyzing aspects such as available resources, project scope, and scheduling, this new edition also explores the growing area of Enterprise Risk Management. Comprehensive and completely up-to-date, this book helps readers determine risk factors thoroughly and decisively...before a project gets derailed.