Predicting Daily Probability Distributions Of Sp500 Returns

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Hidden Markov Models

Author : Ramaprasad Bhar
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402079400
Total Pages : 167 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models by : Ramaprasad Bhar

Download or read book Hidden Markov Models written by Ramaprasad Bhar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-18 with total page 167 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.

Machine Learning: ECML 2006

Author : Johannes Fürnkranz
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 354046056X
Total Pages : 873 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (44 download)

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Book Synopsis Machine Learning: ECML 2006 by : Johannes Fürnkranz

Download or read book Machine Learning: ECML 2006 written by Johannes Fürnkranz and published by Springer. This book was released on 2006-09-21 with total page 873 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 17th European Conference on Machine Learning, ECML 2006, held, jointly with PKDD 2006. The book presents 46 revised full papers and 36 revised short papers together with abstracts of 5 invited talks, carefully reviewed and selected from 564 papers submitted. The papers present a wealth of new results in the area and address all current issues in machine learning.

Data Analytics in Bioinformatics

Author : Rabinarayan Satpathy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111978560X
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Analytics in Bioinformatics by : Rabinarayan Satpathy

Download or read book Data Analytics in Bioinformatics written by Rabinarayan Satpathy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-20 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning techniques are increasingly being used to address problems in computational biology and bioinformatics. Novel machine learning computational techniques to analyze high throughput data in the form of sequences, gene and protein expressions, pathways, and images are becoming vital for understanding diseases and future drug discovery. Machine learning techniques such as Markov models, support vector machines, neural networks, and graphical models have been successful in analyzing life science data because of their capabilities in handling randomness and uncertainty of data noise and in generalization. Machine Learning in Bioinformatics compiles recent approaches in machine learning methods and their applications in addressing contemporary problems in bioinformatics approximating classification and prediction of disease, feature selection, dimensionality reduction, gene selection and classification of microarray data and many more.

Intelligent Information and Database Systems

Author : Ali Selamat
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3642365434
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (423 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligent Information and Database Systems by : Ali Selamat

Download or read book Intelligent Information and Database Systems written by Ali Selamat and published by Springer. This book was released on 2013-02-26 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The two-volume set LNAI 7802 and LNAI 7803 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 5th Asian Conference on Intelligent Information and Database Systems, ACIIDS 2013, held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in March 2013. The 108 revised papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers included are grouped into topical sections on: innovations in intelligent computation and applications; intelligent database systems; intelligent information systems; tools and applications; intelligent recommender systems; multiple modal approach to machine learning; engineering knowledge and semantic systems; computational biology and bioinformatics; computational intelligence; modeling and optimization techniques in information systems, database systems and industrial systems; intelligent supply chains; applied data mining for semantic Web; semantic Web and ontology; integration of information systems; and conceptual modeling in advanced database systems.

Big Data Science in Finance

Author : Irene Aldridge
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111960298X
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Big Data Science in Finance by : Irene Aldridge

Download or read book Big Data Science in Finance written by Irene Aldridge and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-01-27 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the mathematics, theory, and methods of Big Data as applied to finance and investing Data science has fundamentally changed Wall Street—applied mathematics and software code are increasingly driving finance and investment-decision tools. Big Data Science in Finance examines the mathematics, theory, and practical use of the revolutionary techniques that are transforming the industry. Designed for mathematically-advanced students and discerning financial practitioners alike, this energizing book presents new, cutting-edge content based on world-class research taught in the leading Financial Mathematics and Engineering programs in the world. Marco Avellaneda, a leader in quantitative finance, and quantitative methodology author Irene Aldridge help readers harness the power of Big Data. Comprehensive in scope, this book offers in-depth instruction on how to separate signal from noise, how to deal with missing data values, and how to utilize Big Data techniques in decision-making. Key topics include data clustering, data storage optimization, Big Data dynamics, Monte Carlo methods and their applications in Big Data analysis, and more. This valuable book: Provides a complete account of Big Data that includes proofs, step-by-step applications, and code samples Explains the difference between Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Covers vital topics in the field in a clear, straightforward manner Compares, contrasts, and discusses Big Data and Small Data Includes Cornell University-tested educational materials such as lesson plans, end-of-chapter questions, and downloadable lecture slides Big Data Science in Finance: Mathematics and Applications is an important, up-to-date resource for students in economics, econometrics, finance, applied mathematics, industrial engineering, and business courses, and for investment managers, quantitative traders, risk and portfolio managers, and other financial practitioners.

Goals-Based Portfolio Theory

Author : Franklin J. Parker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119906121
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Goals-Based Portfolio Theory by : Franklin J. Parker

Download or read book Goals-Based Portfolio Theory written by Franklin J. Parker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-11-29 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An in-depth overview of investing in the real world In Goals-Based Portfolio Theory, award-winning Chartered Financial Analyst® Franklin J. Parker delivers an insightful and eye-opening discussion of how real people can navigate the financial jungle and achieve their financial goals. The book accepts the reality that the typical investor has specific funding requirements within specified periods of time and a limited amount of wealth to dedicate to those objectives. It then works within those limits to show you how to build an investment portfolio that maximizes the possibility you’ll achieve your goals, as well as how to manage the tradeoffs between your goals. In the book, you’ll find: Strategies for incorporating taxation and rebalancing into a goals-based portfolio A discussion of the major non-financial risks faced by people engaged in private wealth management An incisive prediction of what the future of wealth management and investment management may look like An indispensable exploration of investing as it actually works in the real world for real people, Goals-Based Portfolio Theory belongs in the library of all investors and their advisors who want to maximize the chances of meeting financial goals.

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Author : Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471746185
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Analysis of Financial Time Series by : Ruey S. Tsay

Download or read book Analysis of Financial Time Series written by Ruey S. Tsay and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-09-15 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides statistical tools and techniques needed to understandtoday's financial markets The Second Edition of this critically acclaimed text provides acomprehensive and systematic introduction to financial econometricmodels and their applications in modeling and predicting financialtime series data. This latest edition continues to emphasizeempirical financial data and focuses on real-world examples.Following this approach, readers will master key aspects offinancial time series, including volatility modeling, neuralnetwork applications, market microstructure and high-frequencyfinancial data, continuous-time models and Ito's Lemma, Value atRisk, multiple returns analysis, financial factor models, andeconometric modeling via computation-intensive methods. The author begins with the basic characteristics of financialtime series data, setting the foundation for the three maintopics: Analysis and application of univariate financial timeseries Return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods This new edition is a thoroughly revised and updated text,including the addition of S-Plus® commands and illustrations.Exercises have been thoroughly updated and expanded and include themost current data, providing readers with more opportunities to putthe models and methods into practice. Among the new material addedto the text, readers will find: Consistent covariance estimation under heteroscedasticity andserial correlation Alternative approaches to volatility modeling Financial factor models State-space models Kalman filtering Estimation of stochastic diffusion models The tools provided in this text aid readers in developing adeeper understanding of financial markets through firsthandexperience in working with financial data. This is an idealtextbook for MBA students as well as a reference for researchersand professionals in business and finance.

Data Mining in Finance

Author : Boris Kovalerchuk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306470187
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Mining in Finance by : Boris Kovalerchuk

Download or read book Data Mining in Finance written by Boris Kovalerchuk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-11 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data Mining in Finance presents a comprehensive overview of major algorithmic approaches to predictive data mining, including statistical, neural networks, ruled-based, decision-tree, and fuzzy-logic methods, and then examines the suitability of these approaches to financial data mining. The book focuses specifically on relational data mining (RDM), which is a learning method able to learn more expressive rules than other symbolic approaches. RDM is thus better suited for financial mining, because it is able to make greater use of underlying domain knowledge. Relational data mining also has a better ability to explain the discovered rules - an ability critical for avoiding spurious patterns which inevitably arise when the number of variables examined is very large. The earlier algorithms for relational data mining, also known as inductive logic programming (ILP), suffer from a relative computational inefficiency and have rather limited tools for processing numerical data. Data Mining in Finance introduces a new approach, combining relational data mining with the analysis of statistical significance of discovered rules. This reduces the search space and speeds up the algorithms. The book also presents interactive and fuzzy-logic tools for `mining' the knowledge from the experts, further reducing the search space. Data Mining in Finance contains a number of practical examples of forecasting S&P 500, exchange rates, stock directions, and rating stocks for portfolio, allowing interested readers to start building their own models. This book is an excellent reference for researchers and professionals in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining, knowledge discovery, and applied mathematics.

Quantitative Investing

Author : Lingjie Ma
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030472027
Total Pages : 462 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Investing by : Lingjie Ma

Download or read book Quantitative Investing written by Lingjie Ma and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-07 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides readers with a systematic approach to quantitative investments and bridges the gap between theory and practice, equipping students to more seamlessly enter the world of industry. A successful quantitative investment strategy requires an individual to possess a deep understanding of the financial markets, investment theories and econometric modelings, as well as the ability to program and analyze real-world data sets. In order to connect finance theories and practical industry experience, each chapter begins with a real-world finance case study. The rest of the chapter introduces fundamental insights and theories, and teaches readers to use statistical models and R programming to analyze real-world data, therefore grounding the learning process in application. Additionally, each chapter profiles significant figures in investment and quantitative studies, so that readers can more fully understand the history of the discipline. This volume will be particularly useful to advanced students and practitioners in finance and investments.

Capital Markets, Fifth Edition

Author : Frank J. Fabozzi
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331594
Total Pages : 1088 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Capital Markets, Fifth Edition by : Frank J. Fabozzi

Download or read book Capital Markets, Fifth Edition written by Frank J. Fabozzi and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-10-23 with total page 1088 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The substantially revised fifth edition of a textbook covering the wide range of instruments available in financial markets, with a new emphasis on risk management. Over the last fifty years, an extensive array of instruments for financing, investing, and controlling risk has become available in financial markets, with demand for these innovations driven by the needs of investors and borrowers. The recent financial crisis offered painful lessons on the consequences of ignoring the risks associated with new financial products and strategies. This substantially revised fifth edition of a widely used text covers financial product innovation with a new emphasis on risk management and regulatory reform. Chapters from the previous edition have been updated, and new chapters cover material that reflects recent developments in financial markets. The book begins with an introduction to financial markets, offering a new chapter that provides an overview of risk—including the key elements of financial risk management and the identification and quantification of risk. The book then covers market participants, including a new chapter on collective investment products managed by asset management firms; the basics of cash and derivatives markets, with new coverage of financial derivatives and securitization; theories of risk and return, with a new chapter on return distributions and risk measures; the structure of interest rates and the pricing of debt obligations; equity markets; debt markets, including chapters on money market instruments, municipal securities, and credit sensitive securitized products; and advanced coverage of derivative markets. Each chapter ends with a review of key points and questions based on the material covered.

CMT Curriculum Level II 2022

Author : CMT Association
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119871719
Total Pages : 807 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (198 download)

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Book Synopsis CMT Curriculum Level II 2022 by : CMT Association

Download or read book CMT Curriculum Level II 2022 written by CMT Association and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 807 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get Your Copy of the Official 2022 CMT® Level II Curriculum Building upon the concepts covered in Level I, the Official CMT® Level II Curriculum is the authoritative resource for all candidates preparing for their second CMT exam. This text explores chart development and analysis, volatility in today’s financial markets, behavioral finance, risk management concepts, and more. Published in partnership with the CMT Association, CMT Curriculum Level II 2022: Theory and Analysis of Technical Analysis covers all concepts featured on the Level II CMT® exam. This curriculum helps candidates both prepare for upcoming 2022 exams and improve their knowledge of fundamental topics in the theory and analysis of markets and securities.

Forecasting for Economics and Business

Author : Gloria González-Rivera
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1315510405
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (155 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting for Economics and Business by : Gloria González-Rivera

Download or read book Forecasting for Economics and Business written by Gloria González-Rivera and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-12-05 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For junior/senior undergraduates in a variety of fields such as economics, business administration, applied mathematics and statistics, and for graduate students in quantitative masters programs such as MBA and MA/MS in economics. A student-friendly approach to understanding forecasting. Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists, and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy. The general aim of this textbook is to carefully develop sophisticated professionals, who are able to critically analyze time series data and forecasting reports because they have experienced the merits and shortcomings of forecasting practice.

Handbook of Economic Forecasting

Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444627413
Total Pages : 1386 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott

Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-10-24 with total page 1386 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Probabilistic Machine Learning for Finance and Investing

Author : Deepak K. Kanungo
Publisher : "O'Reilly Media, Inc."
ISBN 13 : 1492097632
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Probabilistic Machine Learning for Finance and Investing by : Deepak K. Kanungo

Download or read book Probabilistic Machine Learning for Finance and Investing written by Deepak K. Kanungo and published by "O'Reilly Media, Inc.". This book was released on 2023-08-14 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Whether based on academic theories or discovered empirically by humans and machines, all financial models are at the mercy of modeling errors that can be mitigated but not eliminated. Probabilistic ML technologies are based on a simple and intuitive definition of probability and the rigorous calculus of probability theory. Unlike conventional AI systems, probabilistic machine learning (ML) systems treat errors and uncertainties as features, not bugs. They quantify uncertainty generated from inexact model inputs and outputs as probability distributions, not point estimates. Most importantly, these systems are capable of forewarning us when their inferences and predictions are no longer useful in the current market environment. These ML systems provide realistic support for financial decision-making and risk management in the face of uncertainty and incomplete information. Probabilistic ML is the next generation ML framework and technology for AI-powered financial and investing systems for many reasons. They are generative ensembles that learn continually from small and noisy financial datasets while seamlessly enabling probabilistic inference, prediction and counterfactual reasoning. By moving away from flawed statistical methodologies (and a restrictive conventional view of probability as a limiting frequency), you can embrace an intuitive view of probability as logic within an axiomatic statistical framework that comprehensively and successfully quantifies uncertainty. This book shows you why and how to make that transition.

Cmt Curriculum Level II 2023

Author : Cmt Association
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1394184786
Total Pages : 803 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (941 download)

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Book Synopsis Cmt Curriculum Level II 2023 by : Cmt Association

Download or read book Cmt Curriculum Level II 2023 written by Cmt Association and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-12-28 with total page 803 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Get Your Copy of the Official 2023 CMT(R) Level II Curriculum Building upon the concepts covered in Level I, the Official CMT(R) Level II Curriculum is the authoritative resource for all candidates preparing for their second CMT exam. This text explores chart development and analysis, volatility in today's financial markets, behavioral finance, risk management concepts, and more. Published in partnership with the CMT Association, CMT Curriculum Level II 2023: Theory and Analysis of Technical Analysis covers all concepts featured on the Level II CMT(R) exam. This curriculum helps candidates both prepare for upcoming 2023 exams and improve their knowledge of fundamental topics in the theory and analysis of markets and securities.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction

Author : Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400839254
Total Pages : 544 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction by : Stephen J. Taylor

Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.