Prediction Revisited

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119895596
Total Pages : 247 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (198 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction Revisited by : Mark P. Kritzman

Download or read book Prediction Revisited written by Mark P. Kritzman and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2022-06-01 with total page 247 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers: Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.

Return Predictability Revisited

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Return Predictability Revisited by : Ben Jacobsen

Download or read book Return Predictability Revisited written by Ben Jacobsen and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monthly stock market returns are predictable when we refine the observation intervals of the variables used to predict these returns. Contrary to other predictability studies we find high out-of-sample adjusted R2s of up to 7% using economically important commodity returns. Shorter intervals reveal predictability consistent with near efficient markets based on price changes in industrial metals. More historical intervals expose predictability consistent with gradual information diffusion based on energy series. This predictability is robust to data mining adjustment, the inclusion of control (including economic) variables, and unrelated to time-varying risk. Inflation explains part of this predictability, but not all.

Nostradamus 2014: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems

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Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319074016
Total Pages : 463 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Nostradamus 2014: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems by : Ivan Zelinka

Download or read book Nostradamus 2014: Prediction, Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems written by Ivan Zelinka and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-09 with total page 463 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted papers of the Nostradamus conference that has been held in Ostrava, Czech Republic in June 2014. This book also includes outstanding keynote lectures by distinguished guest speakers: René Lozi (France), Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam Suganthan (Singapore) and Lars Nolle (Germany). The main aim of the conference was to create a periodical possibility for students, academics and researchers to exchange their ideas and novel research methods. This conference establishes a forum for presentation and discussion of recent research trends in the area of applications of various predictive methods.

The History of Nordic Relative Clauses

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Publisher : Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
ISBN 13 : 3110492954
Total Pages : 383 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis The History of Nordic Relative Clauses by : Terje Wagener

Download or read book The History of Nordic Relative Clauses written by Terje Wagener and published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 383 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book gives an analysis of relative clauses as they evolve throughout the history of (Mainland) Scandinavian, from Ancient Nordic to Early Modern Norwegian.

Weak and Semi-strong from Stock Return Predictability, Revisited

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Weak and Semi-strong from Stock Return Predictability, Revisited by : Wayne E. Ferson

Download or read book Weak and Semi-strong from Stock Return Predictability, Revisited written by Wayne E. Ferson and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Mood, Aspect, Modality Revisited

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022636352X
Total Pages : 457 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Mood, Aspect, Modality Revisited by : Joanna Blaszczak

Download or read book Mood, Aspect, Modality Revisited written by Joanna Blaszczak and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 457 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What is a linguistic category and what kinds of categories do the labels subjunctive, imperative, future, aspect, and modality refer to? The current literature assumes a straightforward mapping between grammatical category and semantic function, and descriptions of well-studied languages cultivate a sense of predictability in patterns. However, as the editors and contributors of "Mood, Aspect, Modality Revisited" show, this predictability and stability vanish once lesser known patterns and languages are studied. While it is feasible to retain certain distinctions among tense, aspect, and mood (TAM) in analysis of specific issues in specific languages, ongoing formal and experimental research seems to indicate that these traditional grammatical distinctions may ultimately be illusionary. "Mood, Aspect, Modality Revisited" seeks more general or fundamental grammatical structures that can encompass the breadth of related concepts traditionally placed in the TAM categories."

Predictive Maintenance in Smart Factories

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811629404
Total Pages : 239 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Predictive Maintenance in Smart Factories by : Tania Cerquitelli

Download or read book Predictive Maintenance in Smart Factories written by Tania Cerquitelli and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-08-26 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the outcome of the European project "SERENA", involving fourteen partners as international academics, technological companies, and industrial factories, addressing the design and development of a plug-n-play end-to-end cloud architecture, and enabling predictive maintenance of industrial equipment to be easily exploitable by small and medium manufacturing companies with a very limited data analytics experience. Perspectives and new opportunities to address open issues on predictive maintenance conclude the book with some interesting suggestions of future research directions to continue the growth of the manufacturing intelligence.

Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited by : Wayne E. Ferson

Download or read book Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited written by Wayne E. Ferson and published by . This book was released on with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper makes indirect inference about the time-variation in expected stock returns by comparing unconditional sample variances to estimates of expected conditional variances. The evidence reveals more predictability as more information is used, and no evidence that predictability has diminished in recent years. Semi-strong form evidence suggests that time-variation in expected returns remains economically important.

Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080550673
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell

Download or read book Forecasting Expected Returns in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques.*Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives

Advanced Structured Prediction

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262028379
Total Pages : 430 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (62 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Structured Prediction by : Sebastian Nowozin

Download or read book Advanced Structured Prediction written by Sebastian Nowozin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2014-12-05 with total page 430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of recent work in the field of structured prediction, the building of predictive machine learning models for interrelated and dependent outputs. The goal of structured prediction is to build machine learning models that predict relational information that itself has structure, such as being composed of multiple interrelated parts. These models, which reflect prior knowledge, task-specific relations, and constraints, are used in fields including computer vision, speech recognition, natural language processing, and computational biology. They can carry out such tasks as predicting a natural language sentence, or segmenting an image into meaningful components. These models are expressive and powerful, but exact computation is often intractable. A broad research effort in recent years has aimed at designing structured prediction models and approximate inference and learning procedures that are computationally efficient. This volume offers an overview of this recent research in order to make the work accessible to a broader research community. The chapters, by leading researchers in the field, cover a range of topics, including research trends, the linear programming relaxation approach, innovations in probabilistic modeling, recent theoretical progress, and resource-aware learning. Contributors Jonas Behr, Yutian Chen, Fernando De La Torre, Justin Domke, Peter V. Gehler, Andrew E. Gelfand, Sébastien Giguère, Amir Globerson, Fred A. Hamprecht, Minh Hoai, Tommi Jaakkola, Jeremy Jancsary, Joseph Keshet, Marius Kloft, Vladimir Kolmogorov, Christoph H. Lampert, François Laviolette, Xinghua Lou, Mario Marchand, André F. T. Martins, Ofer Meshi, Sebastian Nowozin, George Papandreou, Daniel Průša, Gunnar Rätsch, Amélie Rolland, Bogdan Savchynskyy, Stefan Schmidt, Thomas Schoenemann, Gabriele Schweikert, Ben Taskar, Sinisa Todorovic, Max Welling, David Weiss, Thomáš Werner, Alan Yuille, Stanislav Živný

Protein Structure Prediction

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1588297527
Total Pages : 338 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (882 download)

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Book Synopsis Protein Structure Prediction by : Mohammed Zaki

Download or read book Protein Structure Prediction written by Mohammed Zaki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-09-12 with total page 338 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers elements of both the data-driven comparative modeling approach to structure prediction and also recent attempts to simulate folding using explicit or simplified models. Despite the unsolved mystery of how a protein folds, advances are being made in predicting the interactions of proteins with other molecules. Also rapidly advancing are the methods for solving the inverse folding problem, the problem of finding a sequence to fit a structure. This book focuses on the various computational methods for prediction, their successes and their limitations, from the perspective of their most well known practitioners.

The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (321 download)

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Book Synopsis The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics by : Nelson Chung Mark

Download or read book The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics written by Nelson Chung Mark and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When a k period future return is regressed on a current variable such as the log dividend yield, the marginal significance level of the t-test that the return is unpredictable typically increases over some range of future return horizons, k. Local asymptotic power analysis shows that the power of the long-horizon predictive regression test dominates that of the short-horizon test over a nontrivial region of the admissible parameter space. In practice, small sample OLS bias, which differs under the null and the alternative, can distort the size and reduce the power gains of long-horizon tests. To overcome these problems, we suggest a moving block recursive Jackknife estimator of the predictive regression slope coefficient and test statistics that is appropriate under both the null and the alternative. The methods are applied to testing whether future stock returns are predictable. Consistent evidence in favor of return predictability shows up at the 5 year horizon.

Routledge Handbook of Mental Health Law

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000984915
Total Pages : 756 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Routledge Handbook of Mental Health Law by : Brendan D. Kelly

Download or read book Routledge Handbook of Mental Health Law written by Brendan D. Kelly and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2023-10-12 with total page 756 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mental health law is a rapidly evolving area of practice and research, with growing global dimensions. This work reflects the increasing importance of this field, critically discussing key issues of controversy and debate, and providing up-to-date analysis of cutting-edge developments in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Australia. This is a timely moment for this book to appear. The United Nations’ Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (2006) sought to transform the landscape in which mental health law is developed and implemented. This Convention, along with other developments, has, to varying degrees, informed sweeping legislative reforms in many countries around the world. These and other developments are discussed here. Contributors come from a wide range of countries and a variety of academic backgrounds including ethics, law, philosophy, psychiatry, and psychology. Some contributions are also informed by lived experience, whether in person or as family members. The result is a rich, polyphonic, and sometimes discordant account of what mental health law is and what it might be. The Handbook is aimed at mental health scholars and practitioners as well as students of law, human rights, disability studies, and psychiatry, and campaigners and law- and policy-makers.

Making 20th Century Science

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199978514
Total Pages : 553 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (999 download)

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Book Synopsis Making 20th Century Science by : Stephen G. Brush

Download or read book Making 20th Century Science written by Stephen G. Brush and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015-03-16 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Historically, the scientific method has been said to require proposing a theory, making a prediction of something not already known, testing the prediction, and giving up the theory (or substantially changing it) if it fails the test. A theory that leads to several successful predictions is more likely to be accepted than one that only explains what is already known but not understood. This process is widely treated as the conventional method of achieving scientific progress, and was used throughout the twentieth century as the standard route to discovery and experimentation. But does science really work this way? In Making 20th Century Science, Stephen G. Brush discusses this question, as it relates to the development of science throughout the last century. Answering this question requires both a philosophically and historically scientific approach, and Brush blends the two in order to take a close look at how scientific methodology has developed. Several cases from the history of modern physical and biological science are examined, including Mendeleev's Periodic Law, Kekule's structure for benzene, the light-quantum hypothesis, quantum mechanics, chromosome theory, and natural selection. In general it is found that theories are accepted for a combination of successful predictions and better explanations of old facts. Making 20th Century Science is a large-scale historical look at the implementation of the scientific method, and how scientific theories come to be accepted.

Introductory Econometrics

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Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674037700
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (377 download)

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Book Synopsis Introductory Econometrics by : Arthur S. Goldberger

Download or read book Introductory Econometrics written by Arthur S. Goldberger and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2009-06-01 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a textbook for the standard undergraduate econometrics course. Its only prerequisites are a semester course in statistics and one in differential calculus. Arthur Goldberger, an outstanding researcher and teacher of econometrics, views the subject as a tool of empirical inquiry rather than as a collection of arcane procedures. The central issue in such inquiry is how one variable is related to one or more others. Goldberger takes this to mean How does the average value of one variable vary with one or more others? and so takes the population conditional mean function as the target of empirical research. The structure of the book is similar to that of Goldberger's graduate-level textbook, A Course in Econometrics, but the new book is richer in empirical material, makes no use of matrix algebra, and is primarily discursive in style. A great strength is that it is both intuitive and formal, with ideas and methods building on one another until the text presents fairly complicated ideas and proofs that are often avoided in undergraduate econometrics. To help students master the tools of econometrics, Goldberger provides many theoretical and empirical exercises and, on an accompanying diskette, real micro-and macroeconomic data sets. The data sets deal with earnings and education, money demand, firm investment, stock prices, compensation and productivity, and the Phillips curve. THE DATA SETS CAN BE FOUND HERE.

Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319630431
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction by : Amanda Guillán

Download or read book Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction written by Amanda Guillán and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science.

Weak and Semi-strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (575 download)

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Book Synopsis Weak and Semi-strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited by : Wayne E. Ferson

Download or read book Weak and Semi-strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited written by Wayne E. Ferson and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: