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Polls Expectations And Elections
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Book Synopsis Brookings Big Ideas for America by : Michael E. O'Hanlon
Download or read book Brookings Big Ideas for America written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As a new administration takes office, what are the biggest issues facing the country? The Brookings Institution offers answers to that question in this volume, which continues the Brookings tradition of providing each incoming administration with a nonpartisan analysis of the major domestic and foreign questions confronting America. On the domestic front, Brookings scholars tackle topics ranging from health care and improving economic opportunity to criminal justice reform, lawful hacking, and improving infrastructure. The alliance system, the relationship with China, nuclear weapons, terrorism, and the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Syria among the foreign policies issues addressed. Throughout, Brookings scholars share their individual ideas on how best to address the agenda that awaits the new administration.
Book Synopsis The Pre-election Polls of 1948 by : Frederick Mosteller
Download or read book The Pre-election Polls of 1948 written by Frederick Mosteller and published by . This book was released on 1949 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Voter's Guide to Election Polls by : Ph. D Michael W. Traugott
Download or read book The Voter's Guide to Election Polls written by Ph. D Michael W. Traugott and published by Lulu.com. This book was released on 2016-11-04 with total page 322 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fifth Edition. For the sixth presidential election running, Michael W. Traugott and Paul J. Lavrakas team up to give voters everything they need to know about election polls. When it comes to polls, the stakes are high, which is why this edition has been revised to incorporate information on the latest technologies used for data collection and data analysis. In straightforward language, the authors answer questions such as: - How do political candidates and organizations use poll data? - How do news organizations collect and report poll data? - Why do pollsters use samples? - How do media organizations analyze polls? They also examine common problems and complaints about polls, such as the increasing use of "push polls"-a political telemarketing technique-and polls conducted on the Internet that attract a large number of respondents who may not be representative of the general public.
Book Synopsis Election Polls, the News Media, and Democracy by : Paul J. Lavrakas
Download or read book Election Polls, the News Media, and Democracy written by Paul J. Lavrakas and published by Qc Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an introduction to modern polling. Focusing primarily on the 1996 US presidential election campaign, scholars and media pollsters address such topics as political campaigns, elections, voting behaviour and public opinion, as well as the news media's role in elections and democracy.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Elections by : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Download or read book Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and published by . This book was released on 1992 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
Book Synopsis Polls, Expectations, and Elections by : Richard Craig
Download or read book Polls, Expectations, and Elections written by Richard Craig and published by Lexington Books. This book was released on 2014-11-13 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study of U.S. presidential campaign coverage argues that journalists often tell audiences what actions candidates should take on the campaign trail based solely on whether they’re leading or trailing in the polls. The study of TV coverage of the last twelve elections shows that such “expectation setting” has increased dramatically over time.
Book Synopsis Lost in a Gallup by : W. Joseph Campbell
Download or read book Lost in a Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2024-02-20 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Book Synopsis The Voter's Guide to Election Polls by : Michael W. Traugott
Download or read book The Voter's Guide to Election Polls written by Michael W. Traugott and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2004 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Right up to election day many polls showed Kerry leading Bush by a significant margin, and early exit polling confirmed this misapprehension. Why were the polls so wrong and what does it mean to be ahead in the polls? How ephemeral are these leads at different stages of the campaign? Who sponsors the polls? How are they conducted? What do they mean? For the third presidential election running, Michael W. Traugott and Paul J. Lavrakas give voters everything they need to know about election polls and why it matters that we understand them. If statistics are worse than lies, just think what misreading the polls can do! Visit our website for sample chapters!
Book Synopsis Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them by : G. Elliott Morris
Download or read book Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them written by G. Elliott Morris and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2022-07-12 with total page 175 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
Book Synopsis Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition by : Ray Fair
Download or read book Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition written by Ray Fair and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-12-14 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :030947647X Total Pages :181 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Securing the Vote by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Securing the Vote written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2018-09-30 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the 2016 presidential election, America's election infrastructure was targeted by actors sponsored by the Russian government. Securing the Vote: Protecting American Democracy examines the challenges arising out of the 2016 federal election, assesses current technology and standards for voting, and recommends steps that the federal government, state and local governments, election administrators, and vendors of voting technology should take to improve the security of election infrastructure. In doing so, the report provides a vision of voting that is more secure, accessible, reliable, and verifiable.
Download or read book The Power of Polls? written by Jason Roy and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-07 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public opinion polls have become increasingly prominent during elections, but how they affect voting behaviour remains uncertain. In this work, we estimate the effects of poll exposure using an experimental design in which we randomly assign the availability of polls to participants in simulated election campaigns. We draw upon results from ten independent experiments conducted across six countries on four continents (Argentina, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States) to examine how polls affect the amount of information individuals seek and the votes that they cast. We further assess how poll effects differ according to individual-level factors, such as partisanship and political sophistication, and the content included in polls and how it is presented. Our work provides a comprehensive assessment of the power of polls and the implications for poll reporting in contemporary elections.
Book Synopsis Who Will be in the White House? by : Randall J. Jones
Download or read book Who Will be in the White House? written by Randall J. Jones and published by Longman Publishing Group. This book was released on 2002 with total page 188 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Presenting models for making predictions about presidential elections, this brief supplementary text is accessible to students without a statistical background and features discussions of Election 2000 throughout. Well-grounded in elections theory, this new text introduces students to the major models used to forecast presidential elections and covers a variety of topics through that lens: approval ratings, exit polls, election cycles, nomination process and campaigns, performance of the economy, etc. Lucidly written, it offers an abundance of figures to illustrate concepts to students and include an easy-to-understand explanation of regression so that no prior knowledge of statistics is necessary to read the text. Professor Jones not only summarizes and utilizes the forecasting techniques employed by experts in the past, but brings in new techniques and tools, making a valuable contribution to the methodologies of presidential election forecasting.
Book Synopsis Politics and Big Data by : Andrea Ceron
Download or read book Politics and Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-12-19 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Book Synopsis Opinion Polls and the Media by : C. Holtz-Bacha
Download or read book Opinion Polls and the Media written by C. Holtz-Bacha and published by Springer. This book was released on 2012-04-05 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Opinion Polls and the Media provides the most comprehensive analysis to date on the relationship between the media, opinion polls, and public opinion. Looking at the extent to which the media, through their use of opinion polls, both reflect and shape public opinion, it brings together a team of leading scholars and analyzes theoretical and methodological approaches to the media and their use of opinion polls. The contributors explore how the media use opinion polls in a range of countries across the world, and analyze the effects and uses of opinion polls by the public as well as political actors.
Book Synopsis Progressive Capitalism by : Ro Khanna
Download or read book Progressive Capitalism written by Ro Khanna and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2023-02-07 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Congressman Ro Khanna offers a revolutionary, “progressive” (James J. Heckman, Nobel Prize winner and professor of economics at the University of Chicago) roadmap to facing America’s digital divide, offering greater economic prosperity to all. In Khanna’s vision, “just as people can move to technology, technology can move to people” (from the foreword by Amartya Sen, Nobel Laureate in Economics) where “Khanna envisions redistributing opportunities from coastal cities to rural middle-America…An exciting vision, brilliantly rendered.” (Arlie Russell Hochschild, author of Strangers in Their Own Land). Unequal access to technology and the revenue it creates is one of the most pressing issues in the United States. An economic gulf exists between those who have struck gold in the tech industry and those left behind by the digital revolution; a geographic divide between those in the coastal tech industry and those in the heartland whose jobs have been automated; and existing inequalities in the technological access—students without computers, rural workers with spotty WiFi, and many workers without the luxury to work remotely. Congressman Ro Khanna’s Progressive Capitalism tackles these challenges head-on and imagines how the digital economy can create opportunities for people across the country without uprooting them. Anchored by an approach Khanna calls “progressive capitalism,” he shows how democratizing access to tech can strengthen every sector of economy and culture. By expanding technological jobs nationwide through public and private partnerships, we can close the wealth gap in America and begin to repair the fractured, distrusting relationships that have plagued our country for fall too long. Inspired by his own story born into an immigrant family, Khanna understands how economic opportunity can change the course of a person’s life. Moving deftly between storytelling, policy, and some of the country’s greatest thinkers in political philosophy and economics, Khanna presents a vision we can’t afford to ignore. Progressive Capitalism is a “practical and aspirational” (Kimberlé Crenshaw, professor of law at UCLA and Columbia University) roadmap to how we can seek dignity for every American in an era in which technology shapes every aspect of our lives.
Book Synopsis The Pre-election Polls of 1948; Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts by : Frederick 1916- Mosteller
Download or read book The Pre-election Polls of 1948; Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-election Polls and Forecasts written by Frederick 1916- Mosteller and published by Hassell Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-10 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
