Persistent Forecasting Of Disruptive Technologiesa Report 2

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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2

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Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309157455
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 by : National Research Council

Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-07-02 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2

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Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309149045
Total Pages : 341 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 by : National Research Council

Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologiesâ¬"Report 2 written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-08-02 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term "disruptive technology" describes a technology that results in a sudden change affecting already established technologies or markets. Disruptive technologies cause one or more discontinuities in the normal evolutionary life cycle of technology. This may lead to an unexpected destabilization of an older technology order and an opportunity for new competitors to displace incumbents. Frequently cited examples include digital photography and desktop publishing. The first report of the series, Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies, discussed how technology forecasts were historically made, assessed various existing forecasting systems, and identified desirable attributes of a next-generation persistent long-term forecasting system for disruptive technologies. This second book attempts to sketch out high-level forecasting system designs. In addition, the book provides further evaluation of the system attributes defined in the first report, and evidence of the feasibility of creating a system with those attributes. Together, the reports are intended to help the Department of Defense and the intelligence community identify and develop a forecasting system that will assist in detecting and tracking global technology trends, producing persistent long-term forecasts of disruptive technologies, and characterizing their potential impact on future U.S. warfighting and homeland defense capabilities.

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

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Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309116600
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies by : National Research Council

Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies

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Author : Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780309386722
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (867 download)

Book Synopsis Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies by : Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies

Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies and published by . This book was released on 2010-01-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.

Agent and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications

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Author : Gordan Jezic
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319197282
Total Pages : 455 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (191 download)

Book Synopsis Agent and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications by : Gordan Jezic

Download or read book Agent and Multi-Agent Systems: Technologies and Applications written by Gordan Jezic and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-06-09 with total page 455 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agents and multi-agent systems are related to a modern software paradigm which has long been recognized as a promising technology for constructing autonomous, complex and intelligent systems. The topics covered in this volume include agent-oriented software engineering, agent co-operation, co-ordination, negotiation, organization and communication, distributed problem solving, specification of agent communication languages, agent privacy, safety and security, formalization of ontologies and conversational agents. The volume highlights new trends and challenges in agent and multi-agent research and includes 38 papers classified in the following specific topics: learning paradigms, agent-based modeling and simulation, business model innovation and disruptive technologies, anthropic-oriented computing, serious games and business intelligence, design and implementation of intelligent agents and multi-agent systems, digital economy, and advances in networked virtual enterprises. Published papers have been presented at the 9th KES Conference on Agent and Multi-Agent Systems – Technologies and Applications (KES-AMSTA 2015) held in Sorrento, Italy. Presented results should be of value to the research community working in the fields of artificial intelligence, collective computational intelligence, robotics, dialogue systems and, in particular, agent and multi-agent systems, technologies, tools and applications.

Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future

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Author : Richard E. Darilek
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (42 download)

Book Synopsis Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future by : Richard E. Darilek

Download or read book Surveying Relevant Emerging Technologies for the Army of the Future written by Richard E. Darilek and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study evaluated the U.S. Air Force's survey of emerging technologies of the future, Project Forecast II, for its relevance to the Army's potential requirements for the future, as indicated by the Army 21 Interim Operational Concept. The study concluded that there is a high correlation between the Army's needs and the technologies identified in Forecast II, although the Army could benefit from a poll of its contractors to uncover more Army-relevant technologies. In addition, by using systems as the bridge between projected technologies and specified military capability requirements, as the Air Force did in Forecast II, the Army could take advantage of a valuable means of establishing and gauging the relevance of emerging technologies to future requirements.

U.S. Government Research and Development Reports

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 616 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (334 download)

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Download or read book U.S. Government Research and Development Reports written by and published by . This book was released on 1965 with total page 616 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 714 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Download or read book Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology written by and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 714 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

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Author : Stéphane Vannitsem
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 012812248X
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

Book Synopsis Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts by : Stéphane Vannitsem

Download or read book Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts written by Stéphane Vannitsem and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-05-17 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Findex

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1010 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Findex written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 1010 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Technology Forecast

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 956 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)

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Download or read book Technology Forecast written by and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 956 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Metal Progress

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 704 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (1 download)

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Download or read book Metal Progress written by and published by . This book was released on 1973 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Global Trends 2040

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Author : National Intelligence Council
Publisher : Cosimo Reports
ISBN 13 : 9781646794973
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (949 download)

Book Synopsis Global Trends 2040 by : National Intelligence Council

Download or read book Global Trends 2040 written by National Intelligence Council and published by Cosimo Reports. This book was released on 2021-03 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 552 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Download or read book McGraw-Hill Yearbook of Science and Technology written by and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 552 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Technology Forecasts and Technology Surveys

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 376 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Technology Forecasts and Technology Surveys written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Federal Register

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1792 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Federal Register written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 1792 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Science and Government Report

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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Download or read book Science and Government Report written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: