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Optimism Pessimism And Short Term Fluctuations
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Book Synopsis Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations by : Gabriel Di Bella
Download or read book Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Book Synopsis On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism by : Paul Beaudry
Download or read book On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism written by Paul Beaudry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-30 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Book Synopsis Stress: Concepts, Cognition, Emotion, and Behavior by : George Fink
Download or read book Stress: Concepts, Cognition, Emotion, and Behavior written by George Fink and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2016-03-10 with total page 503 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stress: Concepts, Cognition, Emotion, and Behavior: Handbook in Stress Series, Volume 1, examines stress and its management in the workplace and is targeted at scientific and clinical researchers in biomedicine, psychology, and some aspects of the social sciences. The audience is appropriate faculty and graduate and undergraduate students interested in stress and its consequences. The format allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series. This makes the publication much more affordable than the previously published four volume Encyclopedia of Stress (Elsevier 2007) in which stress subsections were arranged alphabetically and therefore required purchase of the whole work. This feature will be of special significance for individual scientists and clinicians, as well as laboratories. In this first volume of the series, the primary focus will be on general stress concepts as well as the areas of cognition, emotion, and behavior. - Offers chapters with impressive scope, covering topics including the interactions between stress, cognition, emotion and behaviour - Features articles carefully selected by eminent stress researchers and prepared by contributors representing outstanding scholarship in the field - Includes rich illustrations with explanatory figures and tables - Includes boxed call out sections that serve to explain key concepts and methods - Allows access to specific self-contained stress subsections without the need to purchase the whole nine volume Stress handbook series
Book Synopsis Handbook of Personality Development by : Dan P. McAdams
Download or read book Handbook of Personality Development written by Dan P. McAdams and published by Guilford Publications. This book was released on 2018-12-20 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bringing together prominent scholars, this authoritative volume considers the development of personality at multiple levels--from the neuroscience of dispositional traits to the cultural shaping of life stories. Illustrated with case studies and concrete examples, the Handbook integrates areas of research that have often remained disparate. It offers a lifespan perspective on the many factors that influence each individual's psychological makeup and examines the interface of personality development with health, psychopathology, relationships, and the family. Contributors provide broad-based, up-to-date reviews of theories, empirical findings, methodological innovations, and emerging trends. See also the authored volume The Art and Science of Personality Development, by Dan P. McAdams.
Download or read book The Optimism Bias written by Tali Sharot and published by Vintage. This book was released on 2011-06-14 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives.
Book Synopsis Rainy Brain, Sunny Brain by : Elaine Fox
Download or read book Rainy Brain, Sunny Brain written by Elaine Fox and published by Basic Books. This book was released on 2012-06-05 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are you optimistic or pessimistic? Glass half-full or half-empty? Do you look on the bright side or turn towards the dark? These are easy questions for most of us to answer, because our personality types are hard-wired into our brains. As pioneering psychologist and neuroscientist Elaine Fox has discovered, our outlook on life reflects our primal inclination to seek pleasure or avoid danger -- inclinations that, in many people, are healthily balanced. But when our "fear brain" or "pleasure brain" is too strong, the results can be disastrous, as those of us suffering from debilitating shyness, addiction, depression, or anxiety know all too well. Luckily, anyone suffering from these afflictions has reason to hope. Stunning breakthroughs in neuroscience show that our brains are more malleable than we ever imagined. In Rainy Brain, Sunny Brain, Fox describes a range of techniques -- from traditional cognitive behavioral therapy to innovative cognitive-retraining exercises -- that can actually alter our brains' circuitry, strengthening specific thought processes by exercising the neural systems that control them. The implications are enormous: lifelong pessimists can train themselves to think positively and find happiness, while pleasure-seekers inclined toward risky or destructive behavior can take control of their lives. Drawing on her own cutting-edge research, Fox shows how we can retrain our brains to brighten our lives and learn to flourish. With keen insights into how genes, life experiences and cognitive processes interleave together to make us who we are, Rainy Brain, SunnyBrain revolutionizes our basic concept of individuality. We learn that we can influence our own personalities, and that our lives are only as "sunny" or as "rainy" as we allow them to be.
Book Synopsis Capital Market Liberalization and Development by : José Antonio Ocampo
Download or read book Capital Market Liberalization and Development written by José Antonio Ocampo and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Capital market liberalization has been a key battle in the debate on globalization for much of the previous two decades. Many developing countries, often at the behest of international financial institutions such as the IMF, opened their capital accounts and liberalized their domestic financial markets as part of the wave of liberalization that characterized the 1980s and 1990s and in doing so exposed their economies to increased risk and volatility. Now with even the IMF acknowledging the risks inherent in capital market liberalization, the central intellectual battle over the effects of capital market liberalization has for the most part ended. Though this new understanding of the consequences of capital market liberalization is reshaping many policy discussions among academics and international institutions, ideological and vested interests remain. Critical policy debates also remain, such as how much government should intervene and what tools are available. Although capital market liberalization might not produce the promised benefits, many economists and policymakers still worry about the costs of intervention. Do these costs exceed the benefits? What are the best kinds of interventions, under what circumstances? To answer these questions, we have to understand why capital market liberalization has failed to enhance growth, why it has resulted in greater instability, why the poor appear to have borne the greatest burden, and why the advocates of capital market liberalization were so wrong. Bringing together some of the leading researchers and practitioners in the field, this volume provides an analysis of both the risks associated with capital market liberalization and the alternative policy options available to enhance macroeconomic management.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Book Synopsis Invest Like a Fox... Not Like a Hedgehog by : Robert C. Carlson
Download or read book Invest Like a Fox... Not Like a Hedgehog written by Robert C. Carlson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2007-06-15 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proven techniques for leading-instead of following-fast-changing markets Investors, no matter what strategy they are using, can be placed into two categories. Single-minded, inflexible hedgehogs lock into one strategy and stick with it through thick and thin. Dynamic, adaptable foxes, on the other hand, are alert for changes, learn from experience, embrace new ideas, and make the most of new trends and technologies. The key lies in being flexible and realizing that markets are dynamic. Invest Like a Fox . . . Not Like a Hedgehog shows investors how being a hedgehog can reduce returns while increasing the risk of a portfolio, and how acquiring the cunning and adaptability of the fox will improve returns while reducing risk. It reveals the shortcomings of popular but hedgehog-like investment strategies and shows how a fox-like investor adjusts to new market realities. Readers learn how to use the renowned Bayesian Theory of Probability and other guideposts from outside the world of finance to adjust their strategies and react to new information.
Book Synopsis Learned Optimism by : Martin Seligman
Download or read book Learned Optimism written by Martin Seligman and published by Hachette UK. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this international bestseller, the father of positive psychology draws on more than twenty years of clinical research to show you how to overcome depression, boost your immune system, and make yourself happier. "Vaulted me out of my funk.... So, fellow moderate pessimists, go buy this book." The New York Times Book Review Sharing simple techniques anyone can practice, Dr. Seligman explains how to break an "I-give-up" habit, develop a more constructive explanatory style for interpreting your behaviour, and experience the benefits of a more positive interior dialogue. With advice on how to encourage optimistic behavior at school, at work and in children, Learned Optimism is both profound and practical, and valuable for every phase of life.
Book Synopsis On the Self-Regulation of Behavior by : Charles S. Carver
Download or read book On the Self-Regulation of Behavior written by Charles S. Carver and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2001-05-07 with total page 464 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a thorough overview of a model of human functioning based on the idea that behavior is goal-directed and regulated by feedback control processes. It describes feedback processes and their application to behavior, considers goals and the idea that goals are organized hierarchically, examines affect as deriving from a different kind of feedback process, and analyzes how success expectancies influence whether people keep trying to attain goals or disengage. Later sections consider a series of emerging themes, including dynamic systems as a model for shifting among goals, catastrophe theory as a model for persistence, and the question of whether behavior is controlled or instead 'emerges'. Three chapters consider the implications of these various ideas for understanding maladaptive behavior, and the closing chapter asks whether goals are a necessity of life. Throughout, theory is presented in the context of diverse issues that link the theory to other literatures.
Book Synopsis Post Walrasian Macroeconomics by : David Colander
Download or read book Post Walrasian Macroeconomics written by David Colander and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-07-17 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics is evolving in an almost dialectic fashion. The latest evolution is the development of a new synthesis that combines insights of new classical, new Keynesian and real business cycle traditions into a dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that serves as a foundation for thinking about macro policy. That new synthesis has opened up the door to a new antithesis, which is being driven by advances in computing power and analytic techniques. This new synthesis is coalescing around developments in complexity theory, automated general to specific econometric modeling, agent-based models, and non-linear and statistical dynamical models. This book thus provides the reader with an introduction to what might be called a Post Walrasian research program that is developing as the antithesis of the Walrasian DSGE synthesis.
Book Synopsis Economics for the IB Diploma with CD-ROM by : Ellie Tragakes
Download or read book Economics for the IB Diploma with CD-ROM written by Ellie Tragakes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-11-03 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Arranged in four sections, provides review exercises and past examination questions for topics in microeconomics, macroeconomics, interantional economics, and development economics.
Book Synopsis Cryptocurrency Uncovered by : Nathan Venture. D
Download or read book Cryptocurrency Uncovered written by Nathan Venture. D and published by eBookIt.com. This book was released on 2024-05-15 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Embark on the Ultimate Journey Through the Cryptocurrency Revolution Imagine standing on the precipice of a financial revolution, a landscape brimming with opportunities akin to the legendary gold rushes of yesteryear. "Cryptocurrency Uncovered: Your Guide Through the Digital Gold Rush" is your essential compass through this exhilarating and sometimes mystifying terrain, carefully crafted to guide novices and seasoned investors alike through the world of digital currencies. Upon this journey, you'll uncover the origins and evolution of cryptocurrency, exploring the seismic shift from traditional financial systems to the digital marketplace. Step by step, you'll unlock the secrets behind blockchain technology, a groundbreaking innovation upon which cryptocurrencies build their secure and transparent foundations. Dive deep into the complexities of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and an array of alternative coins that are reshaping the notion of money and investments. With each chapter designed to incrementally build your confidence and expertise, this book transforms the seemingly intricate world of digital currency into an approachable and empowering experience. But it's not just about understanding–this guide navigates you through the practicalities too. From setting up a digital wallet to making astute choices in the maze of trading platforms, you'll take your first foray into cryptocurrency transactions armed with the knowledge to do so securely and sagely. Gain an investor's acumen, dissect market trends, perfect your portfolio, and learn to harvest your own digital gold through the fascinating world of crypto mining. There's no stone left unturned as this book also addresses the all-important aspects of security, regulatory compliance, and the emerging trends that will shape the future of this digital rush. As you turn the final page of "Cryptocurrency Uncovered," you'll not only have grasped the intricacies of blockchain and cryptocurrency, but you'll also be ready to make your mark in the increasingly decentralized financial world that awaits. Are you ready to join the digital gold rush? Your guide awaits.
Book Synopsis Financial Education and the Influence on Investment Behavior by : Digital World
Download or read book Financial Education and the Influence on Investment Behavior written by Digital World and published by Digital World. This book was released on 2024-09-06 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Hello everyone! I'm excited to introduce you to the fascinating world of financial psychology. In this series, we'll explore how our emotions, beliefs, and behaviors influence our financial decisions. We'll see how this understanding can transform our relationship with money and help us achieve our goals. Financial psychology studies the relationship between the human mind and money. It explores how psychological factors such as emotions, perceptions, and beliefs influence our financial decisions. It combines concepts from psychology and economics to understand financial behavior. Financial psychology isn't just about numbers and graphs. It helps us understand why we sometimes make financial decisions that don't make rational sense. By understanding the psychological mechanisms behind our decisions, we can make more informed decisions that align with our goals. Emotions such as fear, greed, and anxiety significantly influence our financial decisions. Fear of losing money can lead to conservative decisions, while greed can lead to excessive risk-taking. Hope for a better future can motivate us to save, but it can also lead us to invest in high-risk assets. Emotions are like an internal GPS that guides us in our financial decisions. However, they can lead us down a wrong path if not managed properly. By identifying and understanding our emotions, we can make more rational decisions that are aligned with our long-term goals. Cognitive biases are mental shortcuts we use to make decisions faster, but they can lead us to make mistakes. Examples of biases include loss aversion, confirmation bias, and herd behavior. How to identify and overcome these biases to make sounder financial decisions. Our brains are incredible machines, but they are also prone to making mistakes. Cognitive biases are like optical illusions that distort our perception of reality. By being aware of these biases, we can take steps to counteract their effects and make more rational decisions. Our financial habits are shaped by our experiences and beliefs. The importance of developing healthy financial habits, such as saving, investing, and planning for the future. How to create new habits and break old financial habits. Our financial habits are like paths we follow on autopilot. If we want to change our financial results, we need to change our paths. By developing new positive financial habits, we can transform our financial lives. Financial psychology offers us a new perspective on money. Instead of seeing money as an end in itself, we can see it as a means to achieve our goals and live a more fulfilling life.
Book Synopsis Maritime Economics by : E. Karakitsos
Download or read book Maritime Economics written by E. Karakitsos and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-06-24 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyses shipping markets and their interdependence. This ground-breaking text develops a new macroeconomic approach to maritime economics and provides the reader with a more comprehensive understanding of the way modern shipping markets function.
Book Synopsis Breaking Murphy's Law by : Suzanne C. Segerstrom
Download or read book Breaking Murphy's Law written by Suzanne C. Segerstrom and published by Guilford Press. This book was released on 2011-03-18 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Pollyannas take heart, pessimists take note: Recent studies on achievement and well-being show that optimistic behavior contributes to better physical health, greater resilience in the face of life’s twists and turns, and more satisfying relationships. As psychologists Suzanne Segerstrom reveals, optimists lay groundwork for the success they envision. While the rest of us worry whether our goals are attainable, those who practice optimism try to achieve theirs. Breaking Murphy’s Law shows you simple ways to develop the skills that natural-born optimists use to get what they want from life. Dr. Segerstrom helps you break free from the inertia of cynicism and self-doubt and encourages you to engage the world around you. “Doing optimism”--by getting involved, working hard, and enjoying your achievements--establishes a positive feedback loop that’s both personally transformative and self-perpetuating. This practical book imparts the lesson with a mix of humor and intelligence that will convince even the most hardened cynics that Murphy got it wrong.
