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On The Operational Value Of Terminal Weather Forecasts
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Book Synopsis On the Operational Value of Terminal Weather Forecasts by : C. N. Touart
Download or read book On the Operational Value of Terminal Weather Forecasts written by C. N. Touart and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real forecast verifications are used to test a Wx-85 conclusion based on synthetic data: namely, that where the climatic frequency of closed terminal weather is as low as found typically in the CONUS, then the present level of forecasting skill for periods of 3 hours or more is of negative value to aircraft operations. The new results confirm the previous conclusion for longer periods but suggest that it is unduly pessimistic with respect to the 3-hour forecast. (Author).
Book Synopsis An Objective System for Preparing Operational Weather Forecasts by : Iver A. Lund
Download or read book An Objective System for Preparing Operational Weather Forecasts written by Iver A. Lund and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts by : Richard W. Katz (ed)
Download or read book Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts written by Richard W. Katz (ed) and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1997-06-13 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects to weather prediction. The contributors encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behaviour. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential reference for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.
Book Synopsis A Program to Test Skill in Terminal Forecasting by : Irving I. Gringorten
Download or read book A Program to Test Skill in Terminal Forecasting written by Irving I. Gringorten and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Use of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short-range Terminal Weather Forecasting by : Donald A. Chisholm
Download or read book The Use of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short-range Terminal Weather Forecasting written by Donald A. Chisholm and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The products judged most useful in preparing short-range terminal forecasts included (1) a station model time series display, (2) conventional geographic data displays presented simultaneously as four quadrant panels guidance on one screen, (3) mesoscale surface objective analyses, and (4) a forecast guidance prodecure based on 2-D upper-air trajectories and sensible weather algorithms based on imagery from the GOES satellite. The importance of half-hourly visible and IR imagery from the GOES satellite in short-range terminal forecasting was confirmed in this experiment. The participating forecasters relied more heavily on it to prepare their forecasts than any other source. The manipulation of digital imagery in a computer-based interactive graphic system through time-series looping, color enhancements, and overlaying conventional plots and analyses on it, provides a wealth of qualitative and quantitative guidance for forecasting. The numerical forecasts yielded superior rms errors compared to persistence at all forecast intervals except 1 h. At 4 h, the improvement over persistence ranged from about 21 percent for wind forecasts to about 34 percent for total cloud amount, while the 6-h quantitative precipitation forecasts yielded a 39 percent improvement.
Book Synopsis Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management by : National Research Council
Download or read book Weather Forecasting Accuracy for FAA Traffic Flow Management written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-02-27 with total page 67 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate prediction of convective storms 2- to 6-hours in advance is critical to selecting air traffic routes with minimal weather delays or diversions. This report summarizes the discussions of a workshop to explore present convective weather forecasting skill, strategies for improving that skill, ways to verify forecasts are accurate, and how to make forecasts useful to air traffic controllers, airline dispatchers, and pilots.
Book Synopsis Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2003-07-03 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report addresses the transition of research satellites, instruments, and calculations into operational service for accurately observing and predicting the Earth's environment. These transitions, which take place in large part between NASA and NOAA, are important for maintaining the health, safety, and prosperity of the nation, and for achieving the vision of an Earth Information System in which quantitative information about the complete Earth system is readily available to myriad users. Many transitions have been ad hoc, sometimes taking several years or even decades to occur, and others have encountered roadblocksâ€"lack of long-range planning, resources, institutional or cultural differences, for instanceâ€"and never reached fruition. Satellite Observations of Earth's Environment recommends new structures and methods that will allow seamless transitions from research to practice.
Book Synopsis Generating Day-of-operation Probabilistic Capacity Scenarios from Weather Forecasts by : Gurkaran Buxi
Download or read book Generating Day-of-operation Probabilistic Capacity Scenarios from Weather Forecasts written by Gurkaran Buxi and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Airport arrival capacity, referred to here as the airport acceptance rate (AAR), is strongly influenced by the weather in the vicinity of the airport and thus AAR prediction necessitates an airport-specific weather forecast. Weather forecasts, however, are seldom accurate in predicting the actual weather conditions. Strategic decisions, for example arrival rates in a ground delay program (GDP), must be made ahead of time, usually more than two hours, when there is an uncertainty about the future capacity. This research uses probabilistic capacity scenarios to represent the uncertainty in the future arrival capacity. A probabilistic capacity scenario is defined as a time series of AAR values with which a certain probability of realization is associated. A set of probabilistic capacity scenarios may be used to represent the uncertainty in arrival capacity at an airport over the course of the day. There has been considerable research in developing GDP models that determine efficient ground delay decisions and require probabilistic capacity scenarios as inputs. It is assumed that the capacity scenarios can be developed from weather forecasts or can be obtained from the expertise of the air traffic managers. There is, however, considerably less literature on the development of specific day-of-operation probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts. This limits the use of these GDP models in real- world application. This thesis fills that gap and presents methodologies to generate probabilistic capacity scenarios from weather forecasts. In this thesis we develop methodologies for generating probabilistic capacity scenarios using a widely available airport-specific weather forecast called the Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF). These methodologies require the issued TAF forecast and the realized capacity for days in the past. We apply and assess the performance of these methodologies on four US airports: San Francisco International Airport, Boston Logan International Airport, Chicago O'Hare International Airport and Los Angeles International Airports. Though we have focused on these airports as case studies, the TAF-based scenario generation techniques can be applied to any airport. In the first methodology, TAF Clustering, the scenarios are representative capacity profiles for days having similar TAFs. Groups of similar TAFs are found using K-means clustering and the number is verified using Silhouette value. In the second methodology, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) Scenarios, the scenarios are the actual realized capacity profiles for days that have similar TAFs. The similarity between TAFs is determined using a statistical technique for comparing multidimensional time series called DTW. DTW Scenarios uses three airport specific input parameters. These parameters control the numbers and the probabilities of the scenarios. We determine the values of the parameters through optimization to maximize the performance of the scenarios through minimizing average delay costs. The optimal values are determined through a specialized algorithm designed for situations where evaluating the objective function is computationally expensive. For San Francisco International Airport we also use another forecast: the San Francisco Marine Initiative forecast (STRATUS) to develop the scenarios. In this methodology called, Fog burn-off clustering, the scenarios are representative capacity profiles for days that have the fog burn-off time in the same quarter hour. We measure the efficacy of the various scenario generation methodologies in a real world setting based on 45 historic days for each of the four case-study airports. For each day, the generated scenarios are provided as inputs to a static stochastic ground delay model (SSGDM) that determines the series of planned arrival rates that minimize the sum of ground delay costs and expected air delay costs, assuming that the plan is not adjusted to evolving information. The ground delay is determined directly from the SSGDM whereas the realized air delay is determined from a queuing diagram based on the planned arrival rate and the realized arrival capacity. The realized delay costs are averaged over 45 days for each airport, and is the metric used to compare the different scenario generation methodologies. Employing this approach, we compare the different methods for capacity scenario generation against each other and against two other reference cases. Under the first reference case, Naïve Clustering, the scenarios are developed from historical capacity data without the use of the weather forecast. Groups of similar arrival profiles are determined though K-means clustering. In the second reference case, Perfect Information, we assume that the GDP is planned based on perfect information about the future arrival capacity. Our results show that, on average, scenarios generated using the TAF-based DTW method results in the lowest delay cost amongst all scenario based methodologies. It is shown that capacity scenarios generated using day-of-operation weather forecasts can reduce the cost of delays by 5%-30% compared to scenarios that do not make use of weather forecast. The benefit of the TAF based approach is more pronounced on days that have a greater capacity-demand imbalance when compared to Naïve Clustering.
Book Synopsis Report on Research at AFCRL. by : Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (U.S.)
Download or read book Report on Research at AFCRL. written by Air Force Cambridge Research Laboratories (U.S.) and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Air Force Surveys in Geophysics by :
Download or read book Air Force Surveys in Geophysics written by and published by . This book was released on 1972 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on the Departments of Transportation and Treasury, and Independent Agencies Appropriations Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1998 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (12 download)
Book Synopsis Departments of Transportation and Treasury, and Independent Agencies Appropriations for 2005: Department of Transportation FY05 budget justifications by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on the Departments of Transportation and Treasury, and Independent Agencies Appropriations
Download or read book Departments of Transportation and Treasury, and Independent Agencies Appropriations for 2005: Department of Transportation FY05 budget justifications written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on the Departments of Transportation and Treasury, and Independent Agencies Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 1998 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Some Techniques for Short-range Terminal Forecasting by : Clay G. Russell
Download or read book Some Techniques for Short-range Terminal Forecasting written by Clay G. Russell and published by . This book was released on 1970 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report describes several techniques applicable to short-range terminal forecasting. Areas discussed are procedures for graphical extrapolation, nephanalysis, forecasting frontal precipitation, and the lowering of ceilings during precipitation. The use of FPS-77 rada and weather satellite data is shown as they pertain to short-range forecasting. (Author).
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1308 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 (18 download)
Book Synopsis Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1998 by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1998 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 1308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Automated Weather Support written by and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The report contains the proceedings of the Sixth of the Technical Exchange Conferences sponsored by the Air Weather Service and hosted by one of the three armed services on a rotation basis. These sessions dealt with the following subject areas: Automated analysis and forecasting, Local area forecasting, Tailored meteorological support, Automated processing and application of satellite data, and Environmental simulation. The sixth and final session was devoted to a panel discussion on Automated meteorological support.
Author :United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :1346 pages Book Rating :4.F/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1999 by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations
Download or read book Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations for 1999 written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations. Subcommittee on Department of Transportation and Related Agencies Appropriations and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 1346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Weather Support for Field Army Tactical Operations by : United States. Department of the Army
Download or read book Weather Support for Field Army Tactical Operations written by United States. Department of the Army and published by . This book was released on 1969 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: