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Multivariate Jump Diffusion Model With Markovian Contagion
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Book Synopsis Continuous Time Processes for Finance by : Donatien Hainaut
Download or read book Continuous Time Processes for Finance written by Donatien Hainaut and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-08-25 with total page 359 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores recent topics in quantitative finance with an emphasis on applications and calibration to time-series. This last aspect is often neglected in the existing mathematical finance literature while it is crucial for risk management. The first part of this book focuses on switching regime processes that allow to model economic cycles in financial markets. After a presentation of their mathematical features and applications to stocks and interest rates, the estimation with the Hamilton filter and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm (MCMC) is detailed. A second part focuses on self-excited processes for modeling the clustering of shocks in financial markets. These processes recently receive a lot of attention from researchers and we focus here on its econometric estimation and its simulation. A chapter is dedicated to estimation of stochastic volatility models. Two chapters are dedicated to the fractional Brownian motion and Gaussian fields. After a summary of their features, we present applications for stock and interest rate modeling. Two chapters focuses on sub-diffusions that allows to replicate illiquidity in financial markets. This book targets undergraduate students who have followed a first course of stochastic finance and practitioners as quantitative analyst or actuaries working in risk management.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives by : Alexander Lipton
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Credit Derivatives written by Alexander Lipton and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 704 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the late 1990s, the spectacular growth of a secondary market for credit through derivatives has been matched by the emergence of mathematical modelling analysing the credit risk embedded in these contracts. This book aims to provide a broad and deep overview of this modelling, covering statistical analysis and techniques, modelling of default of both single and multiple entities, counterparty risk, Gaussian and non-Gaussian modelling, and securitisation. Both reduced-form and firm-value models for the default of single entities are considered in detail, with extensive discussion of both their theoretical underpinnings and practical usage in pricing and risk. For multiple entity modelling, the now notorious Gaussian copula is discussed with analysis of its shortcomings, as well as a wide range of alternative approaches including multivariate extensions to both firm-value and reduced form models, and continuous-time Markov chains. One important case of multiple entities modelling - counterparty risk in credit derivatives - is further explored in two dedicated chapters. Alternative non-Gaussian approaches to modelling are also discussed, including extreme-value theory and saddle-point approximations to deal with tail risk. Finally, the recent growth in securitisation is covered, including house price modelling and pricing models for asset-backed CDOs. The current credit crisis has brought modelling of the previously arcane credit markets into the public arena. Lipton and Rennie with their excellent team of contributors, provide a timely discussion of the mathematical modelling that underpins both credit derivatives and securitisation. Though technical in nature, the pros and cons of various approaches attempt to provide a balanced view of the role that mathematical modelling plays in the modern credit markets. This book will appeal to students and researchers in statistics, economics, and finance, as well as practitioners, credit traders, and quantitative analysts
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes by : Vincenzo Capasso
Download or read book An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes written by Vincenzo Capasso and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-07-27 with total page 438 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Expanding on the first edition of An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, this concisely written book is a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes. A balance of theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required.
Book Synopsis Credit Risk Frontiers by : Tomasz Bielecki
Download or read book Credit Risk Frontiers written by Tomasz Bielecki and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-02-14 with total page 770 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timely guide to understanding and implementing credit derivatives Credit derivatives are here to stay and will continue to play a role in finance in the future. But what will that role be? What issues and challenges should be addressed? And what lessons can be learned from the credit mess? Credit Risk Frontiers offers answers to these and other questions by presenting the latest research in this field and addressing important issues exposed by the financial crisis. It covers this subject from a real world perspective, tackling issues such as liquidity, poor data, and credit spreads, as well as the latest innovations in portfolio products and hedging and risk management techniques. Provides a coherent presentation of recent advances in the theory and practice of credit derivatives Takes into account the new products and risk requirements of a post financial crisis world Contains information regarding various aspects of the credit derivative market as well as cutting edge research regarding those aspects If you want to gain a better understanding of how credit derivatives can help your trading or investing endeavors, then Credit Risk Frontiers is a book you need to read.
Author :Tomasz R. Bielecki Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :9783540675938 Total Pages :524 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (759 download)
Book Synopsis Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging by : Tomasz R. Bielecki
Download or read book Credit Risk: Modeling, Valuation and Hedging written by Tomasz R. Bielecki and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-01-22 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The motivation for the mathematical modeling studied in this text on developments in credit risk research is the bridging of the gap between mathematical theory of credit risk and the financial practice. Mathematical developments are covered thoroughly and give the structural and reduced-form approaches to credit risk modeling. Included is a detailed study of various arbitrage-free models of default term structures with several rating grades.
Book Synopsis Financial Modeling Under Non-Gaussian Distributions by : Eric Jondeau
Download or read book Financial Modeling Under Non-Gaussian Distributions written by Eric Jondeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-05 with total page 541 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines non-Gaussian distributions. It addresses the causes and consequences of non-normality and time dependency in both asset returns and option prices. The book is written for non-mathematicians who want to model financial market prices so the emphasis throughout is on practice. There are abundant empirical illustrations of the models and techniques described, many of which could be equally applied to other financial time series.
Book Synopsis Developments in Statistics by : Paruchuri R. Krishnaiah
Download or read book Developments in Statistics written by Paruchuri R. Krishnaiah and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-06-28 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Development in Statistics, Volume 1 is a collection of papers that deals with theory and application of parameter estimation in stochastic differential systems, the comparative aspects of the study of ordinary time series, and real multivariate distributions. Some papers discuss covariance analysis of nonstationary time series, nonparametric repeated significance tests, as well as discrete optimal factorial designs for statisticians and investigators of experiments. One paper cites an application of parameter estimation in stochastic differential systems in approximates of stability and control derivatives from flight test data. Another paper cites cases where procedures of ordinary time series (or point processes) have direct analogs in the study of point processes (or ordinary time series). One paper explains the applications of multivariate distributions in simultaneous tests on the equality of eigenvalues toward the covariance matrix, canonical correlation matrix, and a matrix associated with the multivariate analysis of variance. Another paper reviews two types of repeated significance tests, namely, the genuinely distribution-free tests based on a broad class of nonparametric statistics; and the asymptotically distribution-free tests based on a broad class of parametric statistics but having asymptotically nonparametric behavior. Both types can provide a unified solution to a broad class of problems. The collection can be valuable for mathematicians, students, and professors of calculus, statistics, or advanced mathematics.
Book Synopsis Spatial Diffusion by : Richard Morrill
Download or read book Spatial Diffusion written by Richard Morrill and published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated. This book was released on 1988-02-01 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this concise, clear introduction, the authors describe the theory of spatial diffusion, its method of measurement and many of its applications. The seminal work of Torsten Hagerstrand, who introduced the original spatial model of diffusion, is outlined. The authors then summarise the developments that have been made to Hagerstrand's formulation, and make suggestions for future research.
Book Synopsis Stochastic Modelling of Big Data in Finance by : Anatoliy Swishchuk
Download or read book Stochastic Modelling of Big Data in Finance written by Anatoliy Swishchuk and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2022-11-08 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Stochastic Modelling of Big Data in Finance provides a rigorous overview and exploration of stochastic modelling of big data in finance (BDF). The book describes various stochastic models, including multivariate models, to deal with big data in finance. This includes data in high-frequency and algorithmic trading, specifically in limit order books (LOB), and shows how those models can be applied to different datasets to describe the dynamics of LOB, and to figure out which model is the best with respect to a specific data set. The results of the book may be used to also solve acquisition, liquidation and market making problems, and other optimization problems in finance. Features Self-contained book suitable for graduate students and post-doctoral fellows in financial mathematics and data science, as well as for practitioners working in the financial industry who deal with big data All results are presented visually to aid in understanding of concepts Dr. Anatoliy Swishchuk is a Professor in Mathematical Finance at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada. He got his B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from Kyiv State University, Kyiv, Ukraine. He earned two doctorate degrees in Mathematics and Physics (PhD and DSc) from the prestigious National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NASU), Kiev, Ukraine, and is a recipient of NASU award for young scientist with a gold medal for series of research publications in random evolutions and their applications. Dr. Swishchuk is a chair and organizer of finance and energy finance seminar ‘Lunch at the Lab’ at the Department of Mathematics and Statistics. Dr. Swishchuk is a Director of Mathematical and Computational Finance Laboratory at the University of Calgary. He was a steering committee member of the Professional Risk Managers International Association (PRMIA), Canada (2006-2015), and is a steering committee member of Global Association of Risk Professionals (GARP), Canada (since 2015). Dr. Swishchuk is a creator of mathematical finance program at the Department of Mathematics & Statistics. He is also a proponent for a new specialization “Financial and Energy Markets Data Modelling” in the Data Science and Analytics program. His research areas include financial mathematics, random evolutions and their applications, biomathematics, stochastic calculus, and he serves on editorial boards for four research journals. He is the author of more than 200 publications, including 15 books and more than 150 articles in peer-reviewed journals. In 2018 he received a Peak Scholar award.
Book Synopsis Exercises and Solutions in Biostatistical Theory by : Lawrence Kupper
Download or read book Exercises and Solutions in Biostatistical Theory written by Lawrence Kupper and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2010-11-09 with total page 418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawn from nearly four decades of Lawrence L. Kupper's teaching experiences as a distinguished professor in the Department of Biostatistics at the University of North Carolina, Exercises and Solutions in Biostatistical Theory presents theoretical statistical concepts, numerous exercises, and detailed solutions that span topics from basic probabilit
Book Synopsis Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) by : Cheng Few Lee
Download or read book Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes) written by Cheng Few Lee and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2020-07-30 with total page 5053 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.
Book Synopsis Hidden Markov Models by : Robert J Elliott
Download or read book Hidden Markov Models written by Robert J Elliott and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-27 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As more applications are found, interest in Hidden Markov Models continues to grow. Following comments and feedback from colleagues, students and other working with Hidden Markov Models the corrected 3rd printing of this volume contains clarifications, improvements and some new material, including results on smoothing for linear Gaussian dynamics. In Chapter 2 the derivation of the basic filters related to the Markov chain are each presented explicitly, rather than as special cases of one general filter. Furthermore, equations for smoothed estimates are given. The dynamics for the Kalman filter are derived as special cases of the authors’ general results and new expressions for a Kalman smoother are given. The Chapters on the control of Hidden Markov Chains are expanded and clarified. The revised Chapter 4 includes state estimation for discrete time Markov processes and Chapter 12 has a new section on robust control.
Book Synopsis Term-Structure Models by : Damir Filipovic
Download or read book Term-Structure Models written by Damir Filipovic and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.
Download or read book Real R & D Options written by Dean Paxson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2002-12-05 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Real R&D options are among the earliest modelled real options, with now ten primary practical uses: general R&D planning, planning R&D in stages, evaluating test information, new product development timing, operations, abandonment, risk sharing, market funding, industry strategy and regulation. This book was partly motivated by requests to identify and develop real option models for R&D in telecommunications, petroleum technology and biotechnology. Nine new models cover information and implementation costs, analytical solutions for mean reverting, or fat tailed revenues, endogenous learning and exogenous and experiential shocks, American sequential options, and innovator advantages. Four new applications include forward start development options, exploration options, innovation with information costs, and innovator's real values with changing market share. R&D directors and researchers will find several uses for these models: - general R&D planning - evaluating test information - new product development timing - risk sharing - industry strategy and regulation - A practical guide to how organizations can use Real Option techniques to effectively value research and development by companies - Provides a rigorous theoretical underpinning of the use of Real Option techniques - Real Options applications are orientated around the economies of North America, Europe and Asia, for an international perspective
Book Synopsis An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes by : D.J. Daley
Download or read book An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes written by D.J. Daley and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-04-10 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Point processes and random measures find wide applicability in telecommunications, earthquakes, image analysis, spatial point patterns, and stereology, to name but a few areas. The authors have made a major reshaping of their work in their first edition of 1988 and now present their Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes in two volumes with sub-titles Elementary Theory and Models and General Theory and Structure. Volume One contains the introductory chapters from the first edition, together with an informal treatment of some of the later material intended to make it more accessible to readers primarily interested in models and applications. The main new material in this volume relates to marked point processes and to processes evolving in time, where the conditional intensity methodology provides a basis for model building, inference, and prediction. There are abundant examples whose purpose is both didactic and to illustrate further applications of the ideas and models that are the main substance of the text.
Book Synopsis Optimization-Based Models for Measuring and Hedging Risk in Fixed Income Markets by : Johan Hagenbjörk
Download or read book Optimization-Based Models for Measuring and Hedging Risk in Fixed Income Markets written by Johan Hagenbjörk and published by Linköping University Electronic Press. This book was released on 2019-12-09 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global fixed income market is an enormous financial market whose value by far exceeds that of the public stock markets. The interbank market consists of interest rate derivatives, whose primary purpose is to manage interest rate risk. The credit market primarily consists of the bond market, which links investors to companies, institutions, and governments with borrowing needs. This dissertation takes an optimization perspective upon modeling both these areas of the fixed-income market. Legislators on the national markets require financial actors to value their financial assets in accordance with market prices. Thus, prices of many assets, which are not publicly traded, must be determined mathematically. The financial quantities needed for pricing are not directly observable but must be measured through solving inverse optimization problems. These measurements are based on the available market prices, which are observed with various degrees of measurement noise. For the interbank market, the relevant financial quantities consist of term structures of interest rates, which are curves displaying the market rates for different maturities. For the bond market, credit risk is an additional factor that can be modeled through default intensity curves and term structures of recovery rates in case of default. By formulating suitable optimization models, the different underlying financial quantities can be measured in accordance with observable market prices, while conditions for economic realism are imposed. Measuring and managing risk is closely connected to the measurement of the underlying financial quantities. Through a data-driven method, we can show that six systematic risk factors can be used to explain almost all variance in the interest rate curves. By modeling the dynamics of these six risk factors, possible outcomes can be simulated in the form of term structure scenarios. For short-term simulation horizons, this results in a representation of the portfolio value distribution that is consistent with the realized outcomes from historically observed term structures. This enables more accurate measurements of interest rate risk, where our proposed method exhibits both lower risk and lower pricing errors compared to traditional models. We propose a method for decomposing changes in portfolio values for an arbitrary portfolio into the risk factors that affect the value of each instrument. By demonstrating the method for the six systematic risk factors identified for the interbank market, we show that almost all changes in portfolio value and portfolio variance can be attributed to these risk factors. Additional risk factors and approximation errors are gathered into two terms, which can be studied to ensure the quality of the performance attribution, and possibly improve it. To eliminate undesired risk within trading books, banks use hedging. Traditional methods do not take transaction costs into account. We, therefore, propose a method for managing the risks in the interbank market through a stochastic optimization model that considers transaction costs. This method is based on a scenario approximation of the optimization problem where the six systematic risk factors are simulated, and the portfolio variance is weighted against the transaction costs. This results in a method that is preferred over the traditional methods for all risk-averse investors. For the credit market, we use data from the bond market in combination with the interbank market to make accurate measurements of the financial quantities. We address the notoriously difficult problem of separating default risk from recovery risk. In addition to the previous identified six systematic risk factors for risk-free interests, we identify four risk factors that explain almost all variance in default intensities, while a single risk factor seems sufficient to model the recovery risk. Overall, this is a higher number of risk factors than is usually found in the literature. Through a simple model, we can measure the variance in bond prices in terms of these systematic risk factors, and through performance attribution, we relate these values to the empirically realized variances from the quoted bond prices. De globala ränte- och kreditmarknaderna är enorma finansiella marknader vars sammanlagda värden vida överstiger de publika aktiemarknadernas. Räntemarknaden består av räntederivat vars främsta användningsområde är hantering av ränterisker. Kreditmarknaden utgörs i första hand av obligationsmarknaden som syftar till att förmedla pengar från investerare till företag, institutioner och stater med upplåningsbehov. Denna avhandling fokuserar på att utifrån ett optimeringsperspektiv modellera både ränte- och obligationsmarknaden. Lagstiftarna på de nationella marknaderna kräver att de finansiella aktörerna värderar sina finansiella tillgångar i enlighet med marknadspriser. Därmed måste priserna på många instrument, som inte handlas publikt, beräknas matematiskt. De finansiella storheter som krävs för denna prissättning är inte direkt observerbara, utan måste mätas genom att lösa inversa optimeringsproblem. Dessa mätningar görs utifrån tillgängliga marknadspriser, som observeras med varierande grad av mätbrus. För räntemarknaden utgörs de relevanta finansiella storheterna av räntekurvor som åskådliggör marknadsräntorna för olika löptider. För obligationsmarknaden utgör kreditrisken en ytterligare faktor som modelleras via fallissemangsintensitetskurvor och kurvor kopplade till förväntat återvunnet kapital vid eventuellt fallissemang. Genom att formulera lämpliga optimeringsmodeller kan de olika underliggande finansiella storheterna mätas i enlighet med observerbara marknadspriser samtidigt som ekonomisk realism eftersträvas. Mätning och hantering av risker är nära kopplat till mätningen av de underliggande finansiella storheterna. Genom en datadriven metod kan vi visa att sex systematiska riskfaktorer kan användas för att förklara nästan all varians i räntekurvorna. Genom att modellera dynamiken i dessa sex riskfaktorer kan tänkbara utfall för räntekurvor simuleras. För kortsiktiga simuleringshorisonter resulterar detta i en representation av fördelningen av portföljvärden som väl överensstämmer med de realiserade utfallen från historiskt observerade räntekurvor. Detta möjliggör noggrannare mätningar av ränterisk där vår föreslagna metod uppvisar såväl lägre risk som mindre prissättningsfel jämfört med traditionella modeller. Vi föreslår en metod för att dekomponera portföljutvecklingen för en godtycklig portfölj till de riskfaktorer som påverkar värdet för respektive instrument. Genom att demonstrera metoden för de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna som identifierats för räntemarknaden visar vi att nästan all portföljutveckling och portföljvarians kan härledas till dessa riskfaktorer. Övriga riskfaktorer och approximationsfel samlas i två termer, vilka kan användas för att säkerställa och eventuellt förbättra kvaliteten i prestationshärledningen. För att eliminera oönskad risk i sina tradingböcker använder banker sig av hedging. Traditionella metoder tar ingen hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Vi föreslår därför en metod för att hantera riskerna på räntemarknaden genom en stokastisk optimeringsmodell som också tar hänsyn till transaktionskostnader. Denna metod bygger på en scenarioapproximation av optimeringsproblemet där de sex systematiska riskfaktorerna simuleras och portföljvariansen vägs mot transaktionskostnaderna. Detta resulterar i en metod som, för alla riskaverta investerare, är att föredra framför de traditionella metoderna. På kreditmarknaden använder vi data från obligationsmarknaden i kombination räntemarknaden för att göra noggranna mätningar av de finansiella storheterna. Vi angriper det erkänt svåra problemet att separera fallissemangsrisk från återvinningsrisk. Förutom de tidigare sex systematiska riskfaktorerna för riskfri ränta, identifierar vi fyra riskfaktorer som förklarar nästan all varians i fallissemangsintensiteter, medan en enda riskfaktor tycks räcka för att modellera återvinningsrisken. Sammanlagt är detta ett större antal riskfaktorer än vad som brukar användas i litteraturen. Via en enkel modell kan vi mäta variansen i obligationspriser i termer av dessa systematiska riskfaktorer och genom prestationshärledningen relatera dessa värden till de empiriskt realiserade varianserna från kvoterade obligationspriser.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
