Monetary Policy Shifts And Inflation Dynamics

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Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics

Author : John M. Roberts
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics by : John M. Roberts

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics written by John M. Roberts and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Since the early 1980s, the United States economy has changed in some important ways: Inflation now rises considerably less when unemployment falls and the volatility of output and inflation have fallen sharply. This paper examines whether changes in monetary policy can account for these phenomena. The results suggest that changes in the parameters and shock volatility of monetary policy reaction functions can account for most or all of the change in the inflation-unemployment relationship. As in other work, monetary-policy changes can explain only a small portion of the output growth volatility decline. However, changes in policy can explain a large proportion of the reduction in the volatility of the output gap. In addition, a broader concept of monetary-policy changes--one that includes improvements in the central bank's ability to measure potential output--enhances the ability of monetary policy to account for the changes in the economy"--Abstract.

Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics

Author : Paolo Surico
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (778 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics by : Paolo Surico

Download or read book Monetary Policy Shifts and Inflation Dynamics written by Paolo Surico and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy

Author : Jeff Fuhrer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 026225820X
Total Pages : 517 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy by : Jeff Fuhrer

Download or read book Understanding Inflation and the Implications for Monetary Policy written by Jeff Fuhrer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-09-11 with total page 517 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Current perspectives on the Phillips curve, a core macroeconomic concept that treats the relationship between inflation and unemployment. In 1958, economist A. W. Phillips published an article describing what he observed to be the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment; subsequently, the “Phillips curve” became a central concept in macroeconomic analysis and policymaking. But today's Phillips curve is not the same as the original one from fifty years ago; the economy, our understanding of price setting behavior, the determinants of inflation, and the role of monetary policy have evolved significantly since then. In this book, some of the top economists working today reexamine the theoretical and empirical validity of the Phillips curve in its more recent specifications. The contributors consider such questions as what economists have learned about price and wage setting and inflation expectations that would improve the way we use and formulate the Phillips curve, what the Phillips curve approach can teach us about inflation dynamics, and how these lessons can be applied to improving the conduct of monetary policy. Contributors Lawrence Ball, Ben Bernanke, Oliver Blanchard, V. V. Chari, William T. Dickens, Stanley Fischer, Jeff Fuhrer, Jordi Gali, Michael T. Kiley, Robert G. King, Donald L. Kohn, Yolanda K. Kodrzycki, Jane Sneddon Little, Bartisz Mackowiak, N. Gregory Mankiw, Virgiliu Midrigan, Giovanni P. Olivei, Athanasios Orphanides, Adrian R. Pagan, Christopher A. Pissarides, Lucrezia Reichlin, Paul A. Samuelson, Christopher A. Sims, Frank R. Smets, Robert M. Solow, Jürgen Stark, James H. Stock, Lars E. O. Svensson, John B. Taylor, Mark W. Watson

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia

Author : Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513586130
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia by : Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in Bolivia written by Mr.Alejandro D. Guerson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-12-18 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores inflation dynamics and monetary policy in Bolivia. Bolivia’s monetary policy framework has been effective in stabilizing inflation in recent times. This has been a challenging task given high price volatility of key consumer goods subject to recurrent supply shocks, especially food items. Empirical testing indicates that the monetary policy framework has contributed to the stabilization of inflation, with effective transmission through the bank lending channel, while the defacto dollar peg has also played a role. Looking ahead, the current framework will be tested by the new commodity price normal and a potentially permanent adjustment in relative prices. Against this background, consideration could be given to a more flexible exchange rate policy arrangement, with short term interest rates as the main policy instrument.

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

Author : Pierpaolo Benigno
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789284802760
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (27 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area by : Pierpaolo Benigno

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area written by Pierpaolo Benigno and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The surge in inflation rates experienced by the euro area since the beginning of 2021 is rooted in supply shocks that have led to bottlenecks and an energy crisis. This paper shows that the shifts of inflation expectations into prices could cause some persistence in the excessive inflation process. In this last respect, the flatness of the Phillips curve implies that the unemployment-inflation sacrifice ratio is high; hence, there are substantial costs of bringing inflation down through a contraction in aggregate demand. However, a restrictive monetary policy stance appears unavoidable to keep inflation expectations anchored. A compelling policy mix can overcome this trade-off by supporting a favourable scenario with a soft landing of the economy and an inflation rate returning to target at the medium-long horizon. This paper was provided by the Economic Governance and EMU Scrutiny Unit (EGOV) at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 20 March 2022.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484363043
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-21 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies

Author : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484364406
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies by : Geraldine Dany-Knedlik

Download or read book Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies written by Geraldine Dany-Knedlik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-22 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.

Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia

Author : Ms.Rina Bhattacharya
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554737
Total Pages : 22 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia by : Ms.Rina Bhattacharya

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy Transmission in Vietnam and Emerging Asia written by Ms.Rina Bhattacharya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-03 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484374185
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? by : Mr.Yasser Abdih

Download or read book Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.

Evolving Inflation Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and the Fisher Hypothesis

Author : Shingo Goto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Evolving Inflation Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and the Fisher Hypothesis by : Shingo Goto

Download or read book Evolving Inflation Dynamics, Monetary Policy, and the Fisher Hypothesis written by Shingo Goto and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A regime shift in the inflation process is the collective outcome of shifts in individual agents' rational expectations resulting from an important policy initiative. Taking this view, we find decisive evidence of a shift in the inflation process during the Volcker experiment reflecting the Federal Reserve's enforcement of an anti-inflationary interest rate policy consistent with the Taylor (1993) rule. Subsequent to the regime shift, inflation and real interest rates move together, especially in the long run, contradicting both the Fisher hypothesis and the presence of Mundell-Tobin effects. Contrary to conventional wisdom, today's yield curve is not informative about expected inflation and yields now command a significant inflation risk premium suggesting yet another violation of the Fisher hypothesis.

International Dimensions of Monetary Policy

Author : Jordi Galí
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226278875
Total Pages : 663 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí

Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.

Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan

Author : Mr.Kenji Moriyama
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451870477
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan by : Mr.Kenji Moriyama

Download or read book Investigating Inflation Dynamics in Sudan written by Mr.Kenji Moriyama and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-07-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates inflation dynamics in Sudan using three different approaches: the single equation model, the structural vector-auto regression model and a vector error correction model. This is the first study in a low-income and a post-conflict country that uses these three separate techniques to understand inflation dynamics. The use of these approaches is particularly useful to check the robustness of the estimated parameters in the model for a country with limited data coverage and possible structural breaks. The estimated results suggest that money supply growth and nominal exchange rate changes affect inflation with 18-24 months time lag.

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Author : Mr. Sandeep Mazumder
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1462361692
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession by : Mr. Sandeep Mazumder

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession written by Mr. Sandeep Mazumder and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-06-01 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics

Author : Vu Chau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics by : Vu Chau

Download or read book Global Value Chain and Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-03-22 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.

Inflation Dynamics Reconsidered. Inflation Targeting Europe vs. United States

Author : Marc Kern
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3668167591
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (681 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Dynamics Reconsidered. Inflation Targeting Europe vs. United States by : Marc Kern

Download or read book Inflation Dynamics Reconsidered. Inflation Targeting Europe vs. United States written by Marc Kern and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, grade: 1,3, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Departement of Money and Macroeconomics), language: English, abstract: This paper investigates the inflation dynamics of Germany, Italy, Finland, the whole Europe Area and the United States, based on a General-Method of Moments (GMM) estimation. The New-Keynesian Model and the Real-Business-Cycle Model are essential for the estimation.

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low

Author : Mr.Yasser Abdih
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475533772
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low by : Mr.Yasser Abdih

Download or read book What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low written by Mr.Yasser Abdih and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-07 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past two decades, U.S. core PCE goods and services inflation have evolved differently. Against the backdrop of global concerns of low inflation, we use this trend as motivation to develop a bottom-up model of U.S. inflation. We find that domestic forces play a larger role relative to foreign factors in influencing core services inflation, while foreign factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate Phillips curve and the bottom up approach give low root mean square errors. The latter, however, is more informative in tracing the effects of shocks and understanding the exact channels through which they affect aggregate inflation. Using scenario analysis—and given a relatively low sensitivity of core inflation to changes in slack, both at the aggregate Phillips curve and sub-components levels—we find that global pressures will likely keep core PCE inflation below 2 percent for the foreseeable future unless the dollar starts to depreciate markedly and the unemployment rate goes well below the natural rate. These results support the accommodative stance of monetary policy pursued thus far and, going forward, underscore the need for proceeding cautiously and very gradually in raising the federal funds rate.