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Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems
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Book Synopsis Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems by : Shreeda Maskey
Download or read book Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreeda Maskey and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2004-11-23 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Book Synopsis Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems by : Shreedhar Maskey
Download or read book Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreedhar Maskey and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Navigating Comprehensive School Change by : Robert Everhart
Download or read book Navigating Comprehensive School Change written by Robert Everhart and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-08-21 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, an accessible resource for busy practitioners, is a unique hybrid of two genres. As a "tourist guide", it shows you:- how to prepare for the journey- what to pay attention to upon arrival- how to deal with the unexpected.As a "consumer report", it helps you:- identify some of the best tools and sources about change- access useful information about the change process- find information about the strengths and challenges of various strategies.Thorough and comprehensive, it offers essential information about how to:- form leadership teams- identify high stakes problems- build commitment- create a school-wide vision and establish school-wide goals - handle setbacks- maintain the vision and sustain change. - evaluate and assess comprehensive school change.Also included is a section called "Ports of Call" which provides sources of information to help you implement comprehensive school reform at your site. From Michael Fullan's Foreword . . ."Chenoweth and Everhart take the big concepts of change and work them through operationally at the level of day-to-day practice. We learn how to form leadership teams, the importance of focusing on capacity-building and reculturing, how to build commitment while dealing with dissatisfaction, problem-solving during implementation, how to keep going, and how to go beyond standardized testing in developing a range of alternative assessment strategies.
Book Synopsis Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management by : Keith J Beven
Download or read book Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management written by Keith J Beven and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2014-01-13 with total page 685 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short-term (real-time forecasting) and long-term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
Book Synopsis Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods by : Fi-John Chang
Download or read book Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods written by Fi-John Chang and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2019-02-28 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.
Book Synopsis Characterizing Uncertainty of a Hydrologic Modeling System for Operational Flood Forecasting Over the Conterminous United States by : Humberto Jose Vergara Arrieta
Download or read book Characterizing Uncertainty of a Hydrologic Modeling System for Operational Flood Forecasting Over the Conterminous United States written by Humberto Jose Vergara Arrieta and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Flood-frequency Analyses by : Tate Dalrymple
Download or read book Flood-frequency Analyses written by Tate Dalrymple and published by . This book was released on 1960 with total page 90 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Flash Floods written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-14 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flash floods typically develop in a period a few hours or less and can arise from heavy rainfall and other causes, such as dam or flood defence breaches, and ice jam breaks. The rapid development, often associated with a high debris content, can present a considerable risk to people and property. This book describes recent developments in techniques for monitoring and forecasting the development of flash floods, and providing flood warnings. Topics which are discussed include rainfall and river monitoring, nowcasting, Numerical Weather Prediction, rainfall-runoff modelling, and approaches to the dissemination of flood warnings and provision of an emergency response. The book is potentially useful on civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology courses (and for post graduate studies) but is primarily intended as a review of the topic for a wider audience.
Book Synopsis Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response by : Kevin Sene
Download or read book Flood Warning, Forecasting and Emergency Response written by Kevin Sene and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-08-15 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent flood events in Europe, the USA and elsewhere have shown the devastating impact that flooding can have on people and property. Flood warning and forecasting systems provide a well-established way to help to reduce the effects of flooding by allowing people to be evacuated from areas at risk, and for measures to be taken to reduce damage to property. With sufficient warning, temporary defences (sandbags, flood gates etc) can also be installed, and river control structures operated to mitigate the effects of flooding. Many countries and local authorities now operate some form of flood warning system, and the underlying technology requires knowledge across a range of technical areas, including rainfall and tidal detection systems, river and coastal flood forecasting models, flood warning dissemination systems, and emergency response procedures. This book provides a comprehensive account of the flood forecasting, warning and emergency response process, including techniques for predicting the development of flood events, and for issuing appropriate warnings. Related topics, such as telemetry and information systems, and flood warning economics, are also discussed. For perhaps the first time, this book brings together in a single volume the many strands of this interesting multidisciplinary topic, and will serve as a reference for researchers, policy makers and engineers. The material on meteorological, hydrological and coastal modelling and monitoring may also be of interest to a wider audience.
Book Synopsis River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation by : Donald Knight
Download or read book River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation written by Donald Knight and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2005-11-17 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Flooding accounts for one-third of natural disasters worldwide and for over half the deaths which occur as a result of natural disasters. As the frequency and volume of flooding increases, as a result of climate change, there is a new urgency amongst researchers and professionals working in flood risk management. River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation brings together thirty edited papers by leading experts who gathered for the European Union’s Advanced Study Course at the University of Birmingham, UK. The scope of the course ranged from issues concerning the protection of life, to river restoration and wetland management. A variety of topics is covered in the book including climate change, hydro-informatics, hydro-meterology, river flow forecasting systems and dam-break modelling. The approach is broad, but integrated, providing an attractive and informative package that will satisfy researchers and professionals, while offering a sound introduction to students in Engineering and Geography.
Book Synopsis Rainfall-runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments by : Thorsten Wagener
Download or read book Rainfall-runoff Modelling In Gauged And Ungauged Catchments written by Thorsten Wagener and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2004-09-09 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important monograph is based on the results of a study on the identification of conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff models for gauged and ungauged catchments. The task of model identification remains difficult despite decades of research. A detailed problem analysis and an extensive review form the basis for the development of a Matlab® modelling toolkit consisting of two components: a Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Toolbox (RRMT) and a Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox (MCAT). These are subsequently applied to study the tasks of model identification and evaluation. A novel dynamic identifiability approach has been developed for the gauged catchment case. The theory underlying the application of rainfall-runoff models for predictions in ungauged catchments is studied, problems are highlighted and promising ways to move forward are investigated. Modelling frameworks for both gauged and ungauged cases are developed. This book presents the first extensive treatment of rainfall-runoff model identification in gauged and ungauged catchments.
Book Synopsis Incorporation of Uncertainties in Real-time Catchment Flood Forecasting by : Charles Steven Melching
Download or read book Incorporation of Uncertainties in Real-time Catchment Flood Forecasting written by Charles Steven Melching and published by . This book was released on 1987 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice by : Paul Samuels
Download or read book Flood Risk Management: Research and Practice written by Paul Samuels and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2008-10-01 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Floods cause distress and damage wherever and whenever they happen. Flooding from rivers, estuaries and the sea threatens many millions of people worldwide and economic and insurance losses from flooding have increased significantly since 1990. Based on the work of leading researchers, this book provides an overview of advances in this important subject. It covers all aspects of flood risk including the causes of floods; their impacts on people, property and the environment; and portfolios of risk management measurement. Additional topics include climate change, estimation of extremes, flash floods, flood forecasting and warning, inundation modeling, systems analysis, uncertainty, international programs, and flood defense infrastructure and assets. The book also examines environmental, human, and social impacts; vulnerability and resilience; risk sharing; and civil contingency planning and emergency management.
Book Synopsis Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data into Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models by : Maurizio Mazzoleni
Download or read book Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data into Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models written by Maurizio Mazzoleni and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-03-16 with total page 240 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Distributed Hydrological Modelling by : Michael B. Abbott
Download or read book Distributed Hydrological Modelling written by Michael B. Abbott and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is the task of the engineer, as of any other professional person, to do everything that is reasonably possible to analyse the difficulties with which his or her client is confronted, and on this basis to design solutions and implement these in practice. The distributed hydrological model is, correspondingly, the means for doing everything that is reasonably possible - of mobilising as much data and testing it with as much knowledge as is economically feasible - for the purpose of analysing problems and of designing and implementing remedial measures in the case of difficulties arising within the hydrological cycle. Thus the aim of distributed hydrologic modelling is to make the fullest use of cartographic data, of geological data, of satellite data, of stream discharge measurements, of borehole data, of observations of crops and other vegetation, of historical records of floods and droughts, and indeed of everything else that has ever been recorded or remembered, and then to apply to this everything that is known about meteorology, plant physiology, soil physics, hydrogeology, sediment transport and everything else that is relevant within this context. Of course, no matter how much data we have and no matter how much we know, it will never be enough to treat some problems and some situations, but still we can aim in this way to do the best that we possibly can.
Book Synopsis Global Drought and Flood by : Huan Wu
Download or read book Global Drought and Flood written by Huan Wu and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2021-08-10 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods Droughts and floods are causing increasing damage worldwide, often with devastating short- and long-term impacts on human society. Forecasting when they will occur, monitoring them as they develop, and learning from the past to improve disaster management is vital. Global Drought and Flood: Observation, Modeling, and Prediction presents recent advances in the modeling and remote sensing of droughts and floods. It also describes the techniques and products currently available and how they are being used in practice. Volume highlights include: Remote sensing approaches for mapping droughts and floods Physical and statistical models for monitoring and forecasting hydrologic hazards Features of various drought and flood systems and products Use by governments, humanitarian, and development stakeholders in recent disaster cases Improving the collaboration between hazard information provision and end users The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals.
