Modelling The Dynamics Of Commodity Prices For Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty

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Modelling the Dynamics of Commodity Prices for Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty

Author : Shan Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 179 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (827 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling the Dynamics of Commodity Prices for Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Shan Chen

Download or read book Modelling the Dynamics of Commodity Prices for Investment Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Shan Chen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis consists of three essays on commodity-linked investment decisions under uncertainty. Specifically, the first essay investigates whether a regime switching model of stochastic lumber prices is a better model for the analysis of optimal harvesting problems in forestry than a more traditional single regime model. Prices of lumber derivatives are used to calibrate a regime switching model, with each of two regimes characterized by a different mean reverting process. A single regime, mean reverting process is also calibrated. The value of a representative stand of trees and optimal harvesting prices are determined by specifying a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Variational Inequality, which is solved for both pricing models using a fully implicit finite difference approach. The regime switching model is found to more closely match the behavior of futures prices than the single regime model. In addition, the optimal harvesting model indicates significant differences in terms of land value and optimal harvest thresholds between the regime switching and single regime models. The second essay investigates whether convenience yield is an important factor in determining optimal decisions for a forestry investment. The Kalman filter method is used to estimate three different models of lumber prices: a mean reverting model, a simple geometric Brownian motion and the two-factor price model due to Schwartz (1997). In the latter model there are two correlated stochastic factors: spot price and convenience yield. The two-factor model is shown to provide a reasonable fit of the term structure of lumber futures prices. The impact of convenience yield on a forestry investment decision is examined using the Schwartz (1997) long-term model which transforms the two-factor price model into a single factor model with a composite price. Using the long-term model an optimal harvesting problem is analyzed, which requires the numerical solution of a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. I compare the results for the long-term model to those from single-factor mean reverting and geometric Brownian motion models. The inclusion of convenience yield through the long-term model is found to have a significant impact on land value and optimal harvesting decisions. The third essay investigates the dynamics of recent crude oil prices by comparing and contrasting three different stochastic price models, which are a two-state regime switching model, a two-factor model analyzed in Schwartz (1997) and a two-factor model examined in Schwartz and Smith (2000). Prices of long-term crude oil futures contracts are used to calibrate and estimate the model parameters. The performances of the two-factor models are comparable in terms of fitting the market prices of the long-term oil futures contracts and more closely match the behavior of oil futures prices than the regime switching model.

Commodity Price Dynamics

Author : Craig Pirrong
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139501976
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong

Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.

Real Options Valuation

Author : Max Schöne
Publisher : Springer Gabler
ISBN 13 : 9783658074944
Total Pages : 104 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (749 download)

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Book Synopsis Real Options Valuation by : Max Schöne

Download or read book Real Options Valuation written by Max Schöne and published by Springer Gabler. This book was released on 2014-10-04 with total page 104 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Author shows that modelling the uncertain cash flow dynamics of an investment project deserves careful attention in real options valuation. Focusing on the case of commodity price uncertainty, a broad empirical study reveals that, contrary to common assumptions, prices are often non-stationary and exhibit non-normally distributed returns. Subsequently, more realistic stochastic volatility, jump diffusion, and Lévy processes are evaluated in the context of a stylised investment project. The valuation results suggest that stochastic process choice can have substantial implications for valuation results and optimal investment rules.

Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior

Author : Felipe Aguerrevere
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior by : Felipe Aguerrevere

Download or read book Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior written by Felipe Aguerrevere and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effects of competitive interactions on investment decisions and on the dynamics of the price of a nonstorable commodity are studied in a model of incremental investment with time to build and operating flexibility. I find that an increase in uncertainty may encourage firms to increase their capacity. Furthermore, I show that it may be optimal to invest in additional capacity during periods in which part of the operational capacity is not being utilized. The impact of competition on the properties of the endogenous output price is dramatic. For example, I find that price volatility may be increasing in the number of competitors in the industry.

Investment under Uncertainty

Author : Robert K. Dixit
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400830176
Total Pages : 484 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Investment under Uncertainty by : Robert K. Dixit

Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.

The Dynamics of Investment Projects

Author : Rocío Gondo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Investment Projects by : Rocío Gondo

Download or read book The Dynamics of Investment Projects written by Rocío Gondo and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyse the effect of commodity price cycles on firm investment decisions at the project level, by considering the decision to delay, cancel or complete a project as initially announced. In particular, we use logit and duration models of competing risks on a novel dataset of announced investment projects in Peru from different economic sectors. The empirical framework for the timing of investment is motivated by real option models for projects that take time to build, with commodity prices used as a proxy of expected future income and their volatility as a proxy for uncertainty.Our results suggest that both a reduction in commodity prices and an increase in volatility increase the probability to delay investment in the mining sector, with an amplification effect when both simultaneously occur. In other sectors, delays in implementation occur more often in periods of high volatility. Probability regressions under a competing risk framework suggest that higher commodity prices lead to a higher probability of completion in all sectors of the economy.Paper produced as part of the BIS Consultative Council for the Americas Research Network project 'http://www.bis.org/am_office/rsn/tccmafsi.htm' "The Commodity Cycle: Macroeconomic and Financial Stability Implications"

Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling

Author : Giorgio Consigli
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319613200
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling by : Giorgio Consigli

Download or read book Handbook of Recent Advances in Commodity and Financial Modeling written by Giorgio Consigli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-30 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This handbook includes contributions related to optimization, pricing and valuation problems, risk modeling and decision making problems arising in global financial and commodity markets from the perspective of Operations Research and Management Science. The book is structured in three parts, emphasizing common methodological approaches arising in the areas of interest: - Part I: Optimization techniques - Part II: Pricing and Valuation - Part III: Risk Modeling The book presents to a wide community of Academics and Practitioners a selection of theoretical and applied contributions on topics that have recently attracted increasing interest in commodity and financial markets. Within a structure based on the three parts, it presents recent state-of-the-art and original works related to: - The adoption of multi-criteria and dynamic optimization approaches in financial and insurance markets in presence of market stress and growing systemic risk; - Decision paradigms, based on behavioral finance or factor-based, or more classical stochastic optimization techniques, applied to portfolio selection problems including new asset classes such as alternative investments; - Risk measurement methodologies, including model risk assessment, recently applied to energy spot and future markets and new risk measures recently proposed to evaluate risk-reward trade-offs in global financial and commodity markets; and derivatives portfolio hedging and pricing methods recently put forward in the financial community in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics

Author : Fredj Jawadi
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319987143
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics by : Fredj Jawadi

Download or read book Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics written by Fredj Jawadi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-11-30 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Commodity Prices and Markets

Author : Takatoshi Ito
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226386899
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (263 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito

Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.

Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices

Author : B.R. Munier
Publisher : IOS Press
ISBN 13 : 1614990379
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (149 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices by : B.R. Munier

Download or read book Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices written by B.R. Munier and published by IOS Press. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policymakers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organization’s oversimplified faith in free markets.The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and models? Presenting contributions from acknowledged experts from several countries and backgrounds – professors at major international universities or researchers within specialized international organizations – the book concentrates on four issues: the role of expectations and capacity of prediction; policy issues related to development strategies and food security; the role of hoarding and speculation and finally, global modeling methods. The book offers a renewed wisdom on some of the core issues in the world economy today and puts forward important innovations in analyzing these core issues, among which the modular modeling design, the Momagri model being a seminal example of it. Reading this book should inspire fruitful revisions in policy-making to improve the welfare of populations worldwide.

Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making

Author : Van-Nam Huynh
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031467752
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (314 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making by : Van-Nam Huynh

Download or read book Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making written by Van-Nam Huynh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-26 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These two volumes constitute the proceedings of the 10th International Symposium on Integrated Uncertainty in Knowledge Modelling and Decision Making, IUKM 2023, held in Kanazawa, Japan, during November 2-4, 2023. The 58 full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 107 submissions. The papers deal with all aspects of research results, ideas, and experiences of application among researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of uncertainty modelling and management.

Commodity Markets and the Global Economy

Author : Blake C. Clayton
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107042518
Total Pages : 215 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Markets and the Global Economy by : Blake C. Clayton

Download or read book Commodity Markets and the Global Economy written by Blake C. Clayton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a clear-eyed analysis of questions at the intersection of commodity markets, natural resource economics, and public policy.

Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices

Author : Walter C. Labys
Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1351917099
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices by : Walter C. Labys

Download or read book Modeling and Forecasting Primary Commodity Prices written by Walter C. Labys and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent economic growth in China and other Asian countries has led to increased commodity demand which has caused price rises and accompanying price fluctuations not only for crude oil but also for the many other raw materials. Such trends mean that world commodity markets are once again under intense scrutiny. This book provides new insights into the modeling and forecasting of primary commodity prices by featuring comprehensive applications of the most recent methods of statistical time series analysis. The latter utilize econometric methods concerned with structural breaks, unobserved components, chaotic discovery, long memory, heteroskedasticity, wavelet estimation and fractional integration. Relevant tests employed include neural networks, correlation dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, fractional integration and rescaled range. The price forecasting involves structural time series trend plus cycle and cyclical trend models. Practical applications focus on the price behaviour of more than twenty international commodity markets.

Valuing Managerial Flexibility

Author : Pietro Scialdone
Publisher : Cuvillier Verlag
ISBN 13 : 3867273782
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (672 download)

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Book Synopsis Valuing Managerial Flexibility by : Pietro Scialdone

Download or read book Valuing Managerial Flexibility written by Pietro Scialdone and published by Cuvillier Verlag. This book was released on 2007 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty

Author : Giorgio Consigli
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319416138
Total Pages : 310 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty by : Giorgio Consigli

Download or read book Optimal Financial Decision Making under Uncertainty written by Giorgio Consigli and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The scope of this volume is primarily to analyze from different methodological perspectives similar valuation and optimization problems arising in financial applications, aimed at facilitating a theoretical and computational integration between methods largely regarded as alternatives. Increasingly in recent years, financial management problems such as strategic asset allocation, asset-liability management, as well as asset pricing problems, have been presented in the literature adopting formulation and solution approaches rooted in stochastic programming, robust optimization, stochastic dynamic programming (including approximate SDP) methods, as well as policy rule optimization, heuristic approaches and others. The aim of the volume is to facilitate the comprehension of the modeling and methodological potentials of those methods, thus their common assumptions and peculiarities, relying on similar financial problems. The volume will address different valuation problems common in finance related to: asset pricing, optimal portfolio management, risk measurement, risk control and asset-liability management. The volume features chapters of theoretical and practical relevance clarifying recent advances in the associated applied field from different standpoints, relying on similar valuation problems and, as mentioned, facilitating a mutual and beneficial methodological and theoretical knowledge transfer. The distinctive aspects of the volume can be summarized as follows: Strong benchmarking philosophy, with contributors explicitly asked to underline current limits and desirable developments in their areas. Theoretical contributions, aimed at advancing the state-of-the-art in the given domain with a clear potential for applications The inclusion of an algorithmic-computational discussion of issues arising on similar valuation problems across different methods. Variety of applications: rarely is it possible within a single volume to consider and analyze different, and possibly competing, alternative optimization techniques applied to well-identified financial valuation problems. Clear definition of the current state-of-the-art in each methodological and applied area to facilitate future research directions.

Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II

Author : Alberto A. Pinto
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319552368
Total Pages : 531 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (195 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II by : Alberto A. Pinto

Download or read book Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II written by Alberto A. Pinto and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-09-30 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The concepts and techniques presented in this volume originated from the fields of dynamics, statistics, control theory, computer science and informatics, and are applied to novel and innovative real-world applications. Over the past few decades, the use of dynamic systems, control theory, computing, data mining, machine learning and simulation has gained the attention of numerous researchers from all over the world. Admirable scientific projects using both model-free and model-based methods coevolved at today’s research centers and are introduced in conferences around the world, yielding new scientific advances and helping to solve important real-world problems. One important area of progress is the bioeconomy, where advances in the life sciences are used to produce new products in a sustainable and clean manner. In this book, scientists from all over the world share their latest insights and important findings in the field. The majority of the contributed papers for this volume were written by participants of the 3rd International Conference on Dynamics, Games and Science, DGSIII, held at the University of Porto in February 2014, and at the Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference at the University of California at Berkeley in March 2014. The aim of the project of this book “Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II” follows the same aim as its companion piece, “Modeling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics I,” namely, the exploration of emerging and cutting-edge theories and methods for modeling, optimization, dynamics and bioeconomy.

Advanced Positioning, Flow, and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets

Author : Mark J. S. Keenan
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 111960382X
Total Pages : 294 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Positioning, Flow, and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets by : Mark J. S. Keenan

Download or read book Advanced Positioning, Flow, and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets written by Mark J. S. Keenan and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-02-18 with total page 294 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The definitive book on Positioning Analysis — a powerful and sophisticated framework to help traders, investors and risk managers better understand commodity markets Positioning Analysis is a powerful framework to better understand commodity price dynamics, risk, and sentiment. It indicates what each category of trader is doing—what they are trading, how much they are trading and how they might behave under a variety of different circumstances. It is essential in isolating specific types of flow patterns, defining behavioral responses, measuring shifts in sentiment, and developing tools for better risk management. Advanced Positioning, Flow and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets explains the fundamentals of Positioning Analysis and presents new concepts in Commodity Positioning Analytics. This invaluable guide helps readers recognize how certain types of positioning patterns can be used to develop models, indicators, and analyses that can be used to enhance performance. This updated second edition contains substantial new material, including analytics based on the analysis of flow, the decomposition of trading flows, trading activity in the Chinese commodity markets, and the inclusion of Newsflow into Positioning Analysis. Author: Mark J S Keenan, also covers the structure of positioning data, performance attribution of speculators, sentiment analysis and the identification of price risks and behavioral patterns that can be used to generate trading signals.. This must-have resource: Offers intuitive and accessible guidance to commodity market participants and risk managers at various levels and diverse areas of the market Provides a wide range of analytics that can be used directly or integrated into a variety of different commodity-related trading, investment, and risk management programs Features an online platform comprising a wide range of customizable, regularly-updated analytical tools Contains an abundance of exceptional graphics, charts, and illustrations Includes easy-to-follow instructions for building analytics. Advanced Positioning, Flow and Sentiment Analysis in Commodity Markets: Bridging Fundamental and Technical Analysis, 2nd Edition is an indispensable source of information for all types of commodity traders, investors, and speculators, as well as investors in other asset classes who look to the commodity markets for price information.