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Modeling The Formation Of Expectations
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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics by : Frederic S. Mishkin
Download or read book A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 184 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics pursues a rational expectations approach to the estimation of a class of models widely discussed in the macroeconomics and finance literature: those which emphasize the effects from unanticipated, rather than anticipated, movements in variables. In this volume, Fredrick S. Mishkin first theoretically develops and discusses a unified econometric treatment of these models and then shows how to estimate them with an annotated computer program.
Book Synopsis Consumer Expectations by : Richard Thomas Curtin
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Richard Curtin has directed the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys for more than four decades. His analyses of recent trends in consumer expectations are regularly covered in the worldwide press. In this book, Curtin presents a new theory of expectations. Whereas conventional theories presume that consumers play a passive role in the macro economy, simply reacting to current trends in incomes, prices, and interest rates, Curtin proposes a new empirically consistent theory. He argues that expectations are formed by an automatic process that utilizes conscious and nonconscious processes, passion and reason, information from public and private sources, and social networks. Consumers ultimately reach a decision that serves both the micro decision needs of individuals and reflects the common influence of the macro environment. Drawing on empirical observations, Curtin not only demonstrates the importance of consumer sentiment, but also how it can foreshadow the cyclical turning points in the economy.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Survey Expectations by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book Macroeconomic Survey Expectations written by Michael P. Clements and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Why should we be interested in macroeconomic survey expectations? This important book offers an in-depth treatment of this question from a point of view not covered in existing works on time-series econometrics and forecasting. Clements presents the nature of survey data, addresses some of the difficulties posed by the way in which survey expectations are elicited and considers the evaluation of point predictions and probability distributions. He outlines how, from a behavioural perspective, surveys offer insight into how economic agents form their expectations.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Book Synopsis DSGE Models in Macroeconomics by : Nathan Balke
Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Download or read book Expectations written by Arie Arnon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-20 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Agent-Based Economics by : Mauro Gallegati
Download or read book Introduction to Agent-Based Economics written by Mauro Gallegati and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2017-08-03 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Introduction to Agent-Based Economics describes the principal elements of agent-based computational economics (ACE). It illustrates ACE's theoretical foundations, which are rooted in the application of the concept of complexity to the social sciences, and it depicts its growth and development from a non-linear out-of-equilibrium approach to a state-of-the-art agent-based macroeconomics. The book helps readers gain a better understanding of the limits and perspectives of the ACE models and their capacity to reproduce economic phenomena and empirical patterns. - Reviews the literature of agent-based computational economics - Analyzes approaches to agents' expectations - Covers one of the few large macroeconomic agent-based models, the Modellaccio - Illustrates both analytical and computational methodologies for producing tractable solutions of macro ACE models - Describes diffusion and amplification mechanisms - Depicts macroeconomic experiments related to ACE implementations
Book Synopsis Economic Ideas You Should Forget by : Bruno S. Frey
Download or read book Economic Ideas You Should Forget written by Bruno S. Frey and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-08 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reporting on cutting-edge advances in economics, this book presents a selection of commentaries that reveal the weaknesses of several core economics concepts. Economics is a vigorous and progressive science, which does not lose its force when particular parts of its theory are empirically invalidated; instead, they contribute to the accumulation of knowledge. By discussing problematic theoretical assumptions and drawing on the latest empirical research, the authors question specific hypotheses and reject major economic ideas from the “Coase Theorem” to “Say’s Law” and “Bayesianism.” Many of these ideas remain prominent among politicians, economists and the general public. Yet, in the light of the financial crisis, they have lost both their relevance and supporting empirical evidence. This fascinating and thought-provoking collection of 71 short essays written by respected economists and social scientists from all over the world will appeal to anyone interested in scientific progress and the further development of economics.
Book Synopsis Agent-Based Models in Economics by : Domenico Delli Gatti
Download or read book Agent-Based Models in Economics written by Domenico Delli Gatti and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2018-03-22 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first step-by-step introduction to the methodology of agent-based models in economics, their mathematical and statistical analysis, and real-world applications.
Book Synopsis The Rational Expectations Revolution by : Preston J. Miller
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Revolution written by Preston J. Miller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Book Synopsis DSGE Models in Macroeconomics by : Nathan Balke
Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Book Synopsis An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling by : Howard M. Taylor
Download or read book An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling written by Howard M. Taylor and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-05-10 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling provides information pertinent to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling. This book presents the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the sciences. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of diverse types of stochastic models, which predicts a set of possible outcomes weighed by their likelihoods or probabilities. This text then provides exercises in the applications of simple stochastic analysis to appropriate problems. Other chapters consider the study of general functions of independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables representing the successive intervals between renewals. This book discusses as well the numerous examples of Markov branching processes that arise naturally in various scientific disciplines. The final chapter deals with queueing models, which aid the design process by predicting system performance. This book is a valuable resource for students of engineering and management science. Engineers will also find this book useful.
Book Synopsis Rational Expectations Econometrics by : Lars Peter Hansen
Download or read book Rational Expectations Econometrics written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2019-09-05 with total page 305 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Book Synopsis Utility and Probability by : John Eatwell
Download or read book Utility and Probability written by John Eatwell and published by Springer. This book was released on 1990-02-23 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on utility and probability.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics by : Allen V. Kneese
Download or read book Handbook of Natural Resource and Energy Economics written by Allen V. Kneese and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
