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Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity And Solvency Risks In A Financial Environment With Incomplete Information
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Book Synopsis Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information by : MissLiliana Schumacher
Download or read book Modeling Correlated Systemic Liquidity and Solvency Risks in a Financial Environment with Incomplete Information written by MissLiliana Schumacher and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-11-01 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes and demonstrates a methodology for modeling correlated systemic solvency and liquidity risks for a banking system. Using a forward looking simulation of many risk factors applied to detailed balance sheets for a 10 bank stylized United States banking system, we analyze correlated market and credit risk and estimate the probability that multiple banks will fail or experience liquidity runs simultaneously. Significant systemic risk factors are shown to include financial and economic environment regime shifts to stressful conditions, poor initial loan credit quality, loan portfolio sector and regional concentrations, bank creditors' sensitivity to and uncertainties regarding solvency risk, and inadequate capital. Systemic banking system solvency risk is driven by the correlated defaults of many borrowers, other market risks, and inter-bank defaults. Liquidity runs are modeled as a response to elevated solvency risk and uncertainties and are shown to increase correlated bank failures. Potential bank funding outflows and contractions in lending with significant real economic impacts are estimated. Increases in equity capital levels needed to reduce bank solvency and liquidity risk levels to a target confidence level are also estimated to range from 3 percent to 20 percent of assets. For a future environment that replicates the 1987-2006 volatilities and correlations, we find only a small risk of U.S. bank failures focused on thinly capitalized and regionally concentrated smaller banks. For the 2007-2010 financial environment calibration we find substantially elevated solvency and liquidity risks for all banks and the banking system.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.
Book Synopsis Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance by : Tiago Severo
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance written by Tiago Severo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-07-01 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I construct a systemic liquidity risk index (SLRI) from data on violations of arbitrage relationships across several asset classes between 2004 and 2010. Then I test whether the equity returns of 53 global banks were exposed to this liquidity risk factor. Results show that the level of bank returns is not directly affected by the SLRI, but their volatility increases when liquidity conditions deteriorate. I do not find a strong association between bank size and exposure to the SLRI - measured as the sensitivity of volatility to the index. Surprisingly, exposure to systemic liquidity risk is positively associated with the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). The link between equity volatility and the SLRI allows me to calculate the cost that would be borne by public authorities for providing liquidity support to the financial sector. I use this information to estimate a liquidity insurance premium that could be paid by individual banks in order to cover for that social cost.
Book Synopsis The Net Stable Funding Ratio by : Jeanne Gobat
Download or read book The Net Stable Funding Ratio written by Jeanne Gobat and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-12 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of Basel III reforms, the NSFR is a new prudential liquidity rule aimed at limiting excess maturity transformation risk in the banking sector and promoting funding stability. The revised package has been issued for public consultation with a plan of making the rule binding in 2018. This paper complements earlier quantitative impact studies by discussing the potential impact of introducing the NSFR based on empirical analysis of end-2012 financial data for over 2000 banks covering 128 countries. The calculations show that a sizeable percentage of the banks in most countries would meet the minimum NSFR prudential requirement at end-2012, and, further, that larger banks tend to be more vulnerable to the introduction of the NSFR. Additionally, by comparing the NSFR to other structural funding mismatch indicators, we find that the NSFR is a relatively consistent regulatory measure for capturing banks’ funding risk. Finally, the paper discusses key policy issues for consideration in implementing the NSFR.
Book Synopsis The Risks of Financial Institutions by : Mark Carey
Download or read book The Risks of Financial Institutions written by Mark Carey and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 669 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system. Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.
Author :International Monetary Fund Staff Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :145197941X Total Pages :210 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (519 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report by : International Monetary Fund Staff
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report written by International Monetary Fund Staff and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-04-08 with total page 210 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of the past six months have demonstrated the fragility of the global financial system and raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the response by private and public sector institutions. the report assesses the vulnerabilities that the system is facing and offers tentative conclusions and policy lessons. the report reflects information available up to March 21, 2008.
Book Synopsis Quantifying Systemic Risk by : Joseph G. Haubrich
Download or read book Quantifying Systemic Risk written by Joseph G. Haubrich and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Book Synopsis Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics by : Mr.Raphael A Espinoza
Download or read book Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics written by Mr.Raphael A Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-03-13 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.
Book Synopsis Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Short-Term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we identify some of the main factors behind systemic risk in a set of international large-scale complex banks using the novel CoVaR approach. We find that short-term wholesale funding is a key determinant in triggering systemic risk episodes. In contrast, we find no evidence that a larger size increases systemic risk within the class of large global banks. We also show that the sensitivity of system-wide risk to an individual bank is asymmetric across episodes of positive and negative asset returns. Since short-term wholesale funding emerges as the most relevant systemic factor, our results support the Basel Committee's proposal to introduce a net stable funding ratio, penalizing excessive exposure to liquidity risk.
Book Synopsis Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis by : Mr.Kalin Tintchev
Download or read book Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis written by Mr.Kalin Tintchev and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The unprecedented collapse of international interbank borrowing was a prominent feature of the global financial crisis that started in August 2007. This paper focuses on the drivers of the retrenchment from 32 advanced and emerging banking systems. Using novel risk-weighted indexes the paper examines whether the banking systems’ access to credit was related to their domestic financial soundness and exposure to distressed international counterparties. The empirical findings suggest that both domestic and international risk factors contributed to the decline in international interbank borrowing during the crisis.
Author :Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1451845162 Total Pages :115 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (518 download)
Book Synopsis Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress by : Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo
Download or read book Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress written by Ms.Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-03-01 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper empirically analyzes the contribution of microeconomic and macroeconomic factors in five recent episodes of banking system problems in the U.S. Southwest (1986–92), Northeast (1991–92), and California (1992–93); Mexico (1994–95); and Colombia (1982–87). The paper finds that a low capital equity and reserve coverage of problem loans ratio is a leading indicator of bank distress, signaling a high likelihood of near-term failure. Distress is shown to be a function of the same fundamental macro-micro sources of risk that determine bank failures. Focusing on distress has the advantage that the fragility of the banking system can be assessed before a crisis actually occurs.
Book Synopsis From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe by : Mr.Charles Enoch
Download or read book From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe written by Mr.Charles Enoch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe is a comprehensive study of the European Union financial system. It provides an overview of the issues central to securing a safer financial system for the European Union and looks at the responses to the global financial crisis, both at the macro level—the pendulum of financial integration and fragmentation—and at the micro level—the institutional reforms that are taking place to address the crisis. The emerging financial sector management infrastructure, including the proposed Single Supervisory Mechanism and other elements of a banking union for the euro area, are also discussed in detail.
Book Synopsis From Stress to Costress by : Mr.Rodolfo Maino
Download or read book From Stress to Costress written by Mr.Rodolfo Maino and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk+, which uses analytical techniques—similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.
Book Synopsis Modelling, Computation and Optimization in Information Systems and Management Sciences by : Hoai An Le Thi
Download or read book Modelling, Computation and Optimization in Information Systems and Management Sciences written by Hoai An Le Thi and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-05-07 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This proceedings set contains 85 selected full papers presentedat the 3rd International Conference on Modelling, Computation and Optimization in Information Systems and Management Sciences - MCO 2015, held on May 11–13, 2015 at Lorraine University, France. The present part II of the 2 volume set includes articles devoted to Data analysis and Data mining, Heuristic / Meta heuristic methods for operational research applications, Optimization applied to surveillance and threat detection, Maintenance and Scheduling, Post Crises banking and eco-finance modelling, Transportation, as well as Technologies and methods for multi-stakeholder decision analysis in public settings.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1463935153 Total Pages :12 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (639 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2011 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-12-07 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Q&A in this issue features seven questions about Large Fiscal Consolidation Attempts in the Past and Implications for Policymakers Today (by Fuad Hasanov and Paolo Mauro). The research summaries are "Booms and Busts" (by Roberto Piazza) and " Did Export Diversification Soften the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis?" (by Rafael Romeu). The issue also provides details on visiting scholars at the IMF (mainly from September through December 2011), as well as recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes.
Book Synopsis Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests by : Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas
Download or read book Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests written by Mr.Dimitri G. Demekas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Giving stress tests a macroprudential perspective requires (i) incorporating general equilibrium dimensions, so that the outcome of the test depends not only on the size of the shock and the buffers of individual institutions but also on their behavioral responses and their interactions with each other and with other economic agents; and (ii) focusing on the resilience of the system as a whole. Progress has been made toward the first goal: several models are now available that attempt to integrate solvency, liquidity, and other sources of risk and to capture some behavioral responses and feedback effects. But building models that measure correctly systemic risk and the contribution of individual institutions to it while, at the same time, relating the results to the established regulatory framework has proved more difficult. Looking forward, making macroprudential stress tests more effective would entail using a variety of analytical approaches and scenarios, integrating non-bank financial entities, and exploring the use of agent-based models. As well, macroprudential stress tests should not be used in isolation but be treated as complements to other tools and—crucially—be combined with microprudential perspectives.
