Modeling And Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals To Sri Lanka A Comparison Of Three Different Methods

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Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods

Author : Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods by : Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala

Download or read book Modeling and Predicting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka: A Comparison of Three Different Methods written by Hemantha Premakumara Diunugala and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Purpose: This study compares three different methods to predict foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to Sri Lanka from top-ten countries and also attempts to find the best-fitted forecasting model for each country using five model performance evaluation criteria.Methods: This study employs two different univariate-time-series approaches and one Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to develop models that best explain the tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from the top-ten tourist generating countries. The univariate-time series approach contains two main types of statistical models, namely Deterministic Models and Stochastic Models.Results: The results show that Winter's exponential smoothing and ARIMA are the best methods to forecast tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the results show that the accuracy of the best forecasting model based on MAPE criteria for the models of India, China, Germany, Russia, and Australia fall between 5 to 9 percent, whereas the accuracy levels of models for the UK, France, USA, Japan, and the Maldives fall between 10 to 15 percent.Implications: The overall results of this study provide valuable insights into tourism management and policy development for Sri Lanka. Successful forecasting of FTAs for each market source provide a practical planning tool to destination decision-makers.

Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka

Author : Udaya Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 3 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe

Download or read book Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka shows the historical development in mainly in two ways. That is the growth of tourist arrivals and income.Tourism impact on the economy of Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on foreign exchange earnings. This has been a general interest of the government. Therefore government needs reliable forecasting to cope with uncertain situations and developing sound strategies to maintain the growth of tourism industry. This study was focused to identify suitable trend model for forecasting international tourism income of Sri Lanka. Monthly income data from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from statistical reports of 2012 and 2013 of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Study concern the period of post war, which is after year 2009. Model fitting was done by utilizing data from January 2009 to April 2012 and data from May 2012 to May 2013 utilized for model verification. Four trend models were tested with log transformation including one linear and three non linear models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling tests for residuals were used as model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Quadratic Trend Model has least MAPE's in model fitting and verification: 0.90% and 1.12 % respectively. MAD and MSE also confirmed the smallest deviation compared with other trend models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling test confirmed the normality of residuals. Also residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. It was concluded that the Quadratic Trend Model with log transformation is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to try other time series techniques namely decomposition techniques, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models etc. to capture the seasonal behavior of the series.

Decomposition Techniques on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Western European Countries to Sri Lanka

Author : Udaya Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Decomposition Techniques on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Western European Countries to Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe

Download or read book Decomposition Techniques on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Western European Countries to Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The forecasting tourist arrival is an essential discipline in planning, resource management, and other decision-making processes in micro and macro level. It facilitates to ensure the sustainable development by minimizing the risk to all aspects. There is a growth of arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could cause a positive or negative effect on the country. To get the maximum benefits from the positive impacts and to overcome the negative impacts, it is vital to forecast arrivals. This study focuses on identifying the highest tourist producing Western European countries and to forecast the arrivals from them. Monthly tourist arrival data from the UK, Germany, France, Netherland, and Italy for the period of, January 2008 to December 2014 was obtained from Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Time Series plots and AutoCorrelation Functions (ACF) were used for pattern recognition of arrivals. It revealed that the arrivals have both trend and seasonal patterns. As such, the Decomposition Techniques were tested for forecasting arrivals. The Residual plots and the Anderson-Darling test were used as the goodness of fit tests in model validation. The residuals of both; additive and multiplicative models for all the countries were found normally distributed and independent. The best fitting model was selected by comparing the relative measurements of errors and the absolute measurements of errors. Measurement errors of all the fitted models were satisfactorily small. Among them, the models with least errors were selected for forecasting. It is concluded that the Additive Decomposition models are the most suitable models for forecasting arrivals from Western European countries. However, arrivals show wave-like patterns with the trend. The Circular Model is a newly introduced technique for modeling wave-like patterns. It is recommended to test the Circular Model on de-trended data to see whether the forecasting accuracy increases.

Sama Circular Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka

Author : W. G. Samanthi Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Sama Circular Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka by : W. G. Samanthi Konarasinghe

Download or read book Sama Circular Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka written by W. G. Samanthi Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Circular Model (CM) is univariate statistical technique, which is applied in modeling wave like patterns. Development of the CM was based on; Newton's Law of Circular Motion, Fourier Transformation and Multiple Regression Analysis. Most important property of the CM is that; the model is capable in capturing both seasonal and cyclical patterns of a time series. However, applicability of the CM is restricted to trend free series. As such, the differencing technique was used to mitigate the limitation of the CM. The improved Circular Model, named as the "Sama Circular Model (SCM)” is tested on forecasting tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. Time Series plots were used for pattern recognition. The Auto Correlation Functions of residuals and Ljung-Box Q statistics (LBQ) were used to test the independence of residuals. The Anderson Darling test was used to test the normality of residuals. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Deviation. Forecasting ability of SCM was compared with the Decomposition models and Seasonal Auto Regressive Moving Average models. It is concluded that the SCM is capable in forecasting tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka and the SCM is superior to the other tested models for the purpose. It is recommended to test the SCM for various fields of study, such as; Agriculture, Meteorology, Economics, Finance etc. for optimum benefits.

Time Series Patterns of Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka

Author : Udaya Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Patterns of Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe

Download or read book Time Series Patterns of Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study focused on pattern recognition of tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from various regions in the world. Monthly time series data from January 2008 to December 2014 are used in this study. The regions selected for the study were the top four in market position. They are; Asia, Western Europe, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Descriptive statistics, Time Series plots and Auto-Correlation Functions (ACF) were used for pattern identification and one way - Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used for mean comparison of tourist arrivals from selected regions. The average arrivals of Asia and Western Europe are the highest 29361 and 25982 respectively. There is no significant difference between these two regions. Eastern Europe and the Middle East have 5866 and 4300 of average respectively. Arrivals from Asia, Western Europe, and Eastern Europe were not normally distributed, all were positively skewed. Data series of all four regions were non-stationary. There is a significant difference of tourist arrival from Asian and Western Europe compared to other regions. It is recommended to test Moving Average Methods, Exponential Smoothing techniques, Decomposition techniques, linear and non-linear trend models and Circular model for forecasting arrivals.

Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Asian Region to Sri Lanka

Author : Udaya Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 4 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Asian Region to Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe

Download or read book Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals from Asian Region to Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sri Lankan tourism industry shows the historical development of tourist arrivals every year. The Asian region is the highest tourist producer to Sri Lankan tourism market. With the increase in tourist arrivals from the Asian region, the government needs the correct method of forecasting tourist arrivals to cope with uncertain situations and resource management. Therefore, the study was focused on identifying suitable to test the ADLM on forecasting tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from the Asian region.Monthly tourist arrival data from 2009 to 2014 were obtained from statistical reports of 2009 and 2014 of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) was tested on forecasting tourist arrivals. One way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique was used for overall model testing and t-test was used for individual parameter testing.The residual plots, Anderson-Darling and Durbin- Watson tests for residuals were used as a model validation criterion. Stationary of the series tested by Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and Auto Correlation Function (ACF).The forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering both relative and absolute measurements of errors.The results revealed that model with variable lag 1 confirmed the significance of the model. It is also confirmed the normality and uncorrelated of residuals. ADF and ACF confirmed the non-stationary of the series. The P value of Anderson-Darling test was (P= 0.534) and Durbin-Watson statistic was 1.93. Adjusted R2 of the model is 76.8%. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of fitting and verification of model with lag 1 were 1.36 % and 1.03% respectively. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is 0.133 and 0.110 of fitting and verification and Mean Square Error (MSE) is 0.028 and 0.012. The deviations of the model also very small. It was concluded that the ADLM with lag one is suitable for forecasting tourist arrivals from Asian region to Sri Lanka. It is recommended to try other time series techniques namely decomposition techniques, Circular model, Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models etc, to capture the seasonal behavior of the series.

Forecasting Foreign Guest Nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka

Author : K.M.U.B Konarasinghe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Foreign Guest Nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka by : K.M.U.B Konarasinghe

Download or read book Forecasting Foreign Guest Nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka written by K.M.U.B Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past years, tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka show increasing trend. Hill Country is one of the highest occupied regions which are located in the Central province of Sri Lanka. Hill country consist many UNESCO world heritage sites namely; Kandy city, Knuckles Mountain Range, Adam's Peak and Horton Plains. The natural beauty and the cultural value increase the demand for international tourist for Hill country. It creates high demand for accommodation of all types of hotels in the region. An increasing occupancy will increase the demand for accommodation; hence the competition in hotel industry also will increase. Therefore the hotel industry should adopt various management practices to maximize profits and optimize operations. This can be achieved by accurate forecasting of occupancy by tourist. But it was hard to find attempts of forecasting occupancy guest nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka. On the view of the above, the study was focused on forecasting occupancy guest nights of international tourist in Hill Country of Sri Lanka. Monthly data of foreign guest nights for the period of January 2008 to December 2016 were obtained from annual reports of 2008-2016 published by SLTDA. Time series plots and Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) were used for pattern identification. The Decomposition, SARIMA, and Holt-Winters models were tested for forecasting. The Anderson-Darling test, ACF, and Ljung-Box Q (LBQ)-test were used to test the validation criterion and fit the model. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by both relative and absolute measurements are very low in model fitting. Decomposition and Holt-Winters models do not satisfy the model validation criterion. But the relative and absolute measurements of errors of the model ARIMA(2,0,1)(2,1,1)4 are very low in model fitting. The Anderson-Darling Normality test confirmed the normality of residuals; the LBQ- test confirmed the independence of residuals (h=0). The results of the study concluded that the SARIMA is suitable for forecasting occupancy guest nights in Hill Country of Sri Lanka.The results of this study can be used for planning to manage and controlling the business operations of the tourism industry in Hill Country of Sri Lanka. Planning new products to create demand, the volume of products can decide suitable periods for promotional campaigns can be decided with the help of the results of this study. The decomposition and Holt's Winters three parameter approaches were not successful in this study, while, the SARIMA was highly successful. However, a wave-like pattern may contain both seasonal and cyclical variation, but the SARIMA is unable to separate them. The Circular Model is a recently developed univariate forecasting technique, which can be used to capture both seasonal and cyclical patterns. Therefore, it is recommended to test the Circular Model for de-trended data, in order to see whether it improves the forecasting.

ICSA 2019

Author : Farit Mochamad Afendi
Publisher : European Alliance for Innovation
ISBN 13 : 1631902202
Total Pages : 610 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis ICSA 2019 by : Farit Mochamad Afendi

Download or read book ICSA 2019 written by Farit Mochamad Afendi and published by European Alliance for Innovation. This book was released on 2019-08-02 with total page 610 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This conference serves as a means of presenting and discussing various research results among academics, researchers, and practitioners in the fields of statistics, analytics, computing, data science, and its application. Based on 110 papers that have been presented there are three main topics as the focus of the discussion, namely Statistical Modeling, Predictive Analytics, and Pattern Learning. The approach is in the form of a study to obtain a valid methodology for extracting, collecting, storing, analyzing, and visualizing data including those derived from big data. The application studies cover various fields such as agriculture, climate, energy, industry, business, social, and so on. The conference is expected to be able to provide solutions to various problems in various fields through statistical and analytical approaches.

Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting

Author : Haiyan Song
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0080436730
Total Pages : 183 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting by : Haiyan Song

Download or read book Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2000 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Magical Realist Sociologies of Belonging and Becoming

Author : Rodanthi Tzanelli
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1000036685
Total Pages : 221 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Magical Realist Sociologies of Belonging and Becoming by : Rodanthi Tzanelli

Download or read book Magical Realist Sociologies of Belonging and Becoming written by Rodanthi Tzanelli and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 221 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the bottom of the sea, freedivers find that the world bestows humans with the magic of bodily and mental freedom, binding them in small communities of play, affect and respect for nature. On land, rational human interests dissolve this magic into prescriptive formulas of belonging to a profession, a nation and an acceptable modernity. The magical exploration is morphed by such multiple interventions successively from a pilgrimage, to a cinematic and digital articulation of an anarchic project, to an exercise in national citizenship and finally, a projection of post-imperial cosmopolitan belonging. This is the story of an embodied, relational and affective journey: the making of the explorer of worlds. At its heart stands a clash between individual and collective desires to belong, aspirations to create and the pragmatics of becoming recognised by others. The primary empirical context in which this is played is the contemporary margins of European modernity: the post-troika Greece. With the project of a freediving artist, who stages an Underwater Gallery outside the iconic island of Amorgos, as a sociological spyglass, it examines the networks of mobility that both individuals and nations have to enter to achieve international recognition, often at the expense of personal freedom and alternative pathways to modernity. Inspired by fusions of cultural pragmatics, phenomenology, phanerology, the morphogenetic approach, feminist posthumanism and especially postcolonial theories of magical realism, this study examines interconnected variations of identity and subjectivity in contexts of contemporary mobility (digital and embodied travel/tourism). As a study of cultural emergism, the book will be of interest to students and scholars in critical theory, cultural, postcolonial and decolonial studies, and tourism/pilgrimage theory.

Journal of Travel Research

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 510 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (6 download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of Travel Research by :

Download or read book Journal of Travel Research written by and published by . This book was released on 2005-08 with total page 510 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Seasonality in Tourism

Author : Tom Baum
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136367071
Total Pages : 202 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (363 download)

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Book Synopsis Seasonality in Tourism by : Tom Baum

Download or read book Seasonality in Tourism written by Tom Baum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2001-12-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.

Tourism in Africa

Author : Iain Christie
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464801975
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Tourism in Africa by : Iain Christie

Download or read book Tourism in Africa written by Iain Christie and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2014-06-19 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents how tourism initiates economic development and how constraints to the growth of tourism in Sub-Saharan Africa can be addressed. With 24 case studies that illustrate tourism development, it reveals that despite destination challenges, the basic elements needed to initialize or intensify success are applicable across the region.

Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics

Author : Álvaro Matias
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790828793
Total Pages : 346 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics by : Álvaro Matias

Download or read book Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics written by Álvaro Matias and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-13 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism economics is partly based on established principles from the economics discipline, but it also incorporates elements from sociology, psychology, organization theory and ecology. It has over the years turned into an appealing multi-disciplinary oriented approach to the understanding of the impacts of leisure time in a modern society, including cultural heritage, sustainable quality of life, and industrial organization of the hospitality industry. The increasing dynamics in the tourist industry and its worldwide effects will continue to attract the attention of both the research and the policy sector in the years to come. Rather than speculating on non-observed facts, there is a clear need for evidence-based research in order to map out the complex dynamics of the tourist industry. The present volume comprises novel studies – mainly of a quantitative-analytical nature – on the supply, demand and contextual aspects of modern tourism. It contains a sound mix of theory, methodology, policy and case studies on various tourism issues in different parts of the world.

Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance

Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589063953
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance by : El Bachir Boukherouaa

Download or read book Powering the Digital Economy: Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-22 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.

Forecasting with Univariate Box - Jenkins Models

Author : Alan Pankratz
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 584 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting with Univariate Box - Jenkins Models by : Alan Pankratz

Download or read book Forecasting with Univariate Box - Jenkins Models written by Alan Pankratz and published by John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated. This book was released on 1983-08-30 with total page 584 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the concepts and use of univariate Box-Jenkins/ARIMA analysis and forecasting through 15 case studies. Cases show how to build good ARIMA models in a step-by-step manner using real data. Also includes examples of model misspecification. Provides guidance to alternative models and discusses reasons for choosing one over another.

The Future of Migration to Europe

Author : matteo villa
Publisher : Ledizioni
ISBN 13 : 8855262025
Total Pages : 106 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Future of Migration to Europe by : matteo villa

Download or read book The Future of Migration to Europe written by matteo villa and published by Ledizioni. This book was released on 2020-05-14 with total page 106 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Even as the 2013-2017 “migration crisis” is increasingly in the past, EU countries still struggle to come up with alternative solutions to foster safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways, Europeans continue to look in the rear-view mirror.This Report is an attempt to reverse the perspective, by taking a glimpse into the future of migration to Europe. What are the structural trends underlying migration flows to Europe, and how are they going to change over the next two decades? How does migration interact with specific policy fields, such as development, border management, and integration? And what are the policies and best practicies to manage migration in a more coherent and evidence-based way?