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Modeling And Assessing Lava Flow Hazards
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Book Synopsis Modeling and Assessing Lava Flow Hazards by : Elisabeth Gallant
Download or read book Modeling and Assessing Lava Flow Hazards written by Elisabeth Gallant and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 205 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Lava flow hazards are one of the few constant themes across the wide spectrum of volcanic research in the solar system. These dynamic hazards are controlled by the location of the eruption, the topography and material properties of the land upon which the flow spreads, and the properties of the lava (e.g., volume, temperature, and rheology). Understanding the influences on eruption location and how lava flows modify the landscape are important steps to accurately forecast volcanic hazards. Three studies are presented in this dissertation that address dierent aspects of modeling and assessing vent opening and lava flow hazards. The first study uses hierarchical clustering to explore the distribution of activity at Craters of the Moon (COM) lava field on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP). Volcanism at COM is characterized by 53 mapped eruptive vents and 60+ lava flows over the last 15 ka. Temporal, spatial, and spatio-temporal clustering methods that examine different aspects of the distribution of volcanic vents are introduced. The sensitivity of temporal clustering to different criteria that capture the age range of magma generation and ascent is examined Spatial clustering is dictated by structures on the ESRP that attempt to capture the footprint of an emplacing dike. A combined spatio-temporal is the best approach to understanding the distribution of linked eruptive centers and can also provide insight into the evolution of volcanism for the region. Spatial density estimation is used to visualize the differences between these models. The goal of this work is to improve vent opening forecasting tools for use in assessing lava flow hazards.
Book Synopsis Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows by : Aleeza Harburger
Download or read book Probabilistic Modeling of Lava Flows written by Aleeza Harburger and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study serves as a first step towards a comprehensive hazard assessment for the San Francisco volcanic field in northern Arizona, which can be applied to local response plans and educational initiatives. The primary goal of this thesis is to resolve the conditional probability that, given a lava flow effusing from a new vent in the San Francisco volcanic field, it will inundate the city limits of Flagstaff. The spatial distribution of vents within the San Francisco volcanic field was analyzed in order to execute a lava flow simulation to determine the inundation hazard to Flagstaff. The Gaussian kernel function for estimating spatial density showed that there is a 99% chance that a future vent will be located within a 3.6 x 109 m2 area about 20 kilometers north of Flagstaff. This area contains the location of the most recent eruption at Sunset Crater, suggesting that the model is a good predictor of future vent locations. A Monte Carlo analysis of potential vent locations (N = 7,769) showed that 3.5% of simulated vents generated lava flows that inundated Flagstaff, and 1.1% of simulated vents were located within the city limits. Based on the average recurrence rate of vents formed during the Brunhes chronozone, the aggregate probability of lava flow inundation in Flagstaff is 1.1 x 10-5 per year. This suggests that there is a need for the city to plan for lava flows and associated hazards, especially forest fires. Even though it is unlikely that the city will ever have to utilize such a plan, it is imperative that thorough mitigation and response plans are established now-- before the onset of renewed volcanic activity.
Book Synopsis Modelling the Hazard Footprint and Consequences of Lava Flows in an Urban Environment by : Sophia W. R. Tsang
Download or read book Modelling the Hazard Footprint and Consequences of Lava Flows in an Urban Environment written by Sophia W. R. Tsang and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nearly 10% of the world’s population lives within 100 km of a volcano that has been active in the Holocene; living so close to a volcano means potentially being affected by volcanic hazards such as ashfall, pyroclastic density currents, volcanic ballistics, and lava flow Numerous studies have examined the likely extent and impacts of ashfall, pyroclastic density currents, and ballistics. In contrast, very little detailed research has investigated lava flow hazards or impacts. Lava flows are commonly considered to fully destroy any structure with which they come in contact, i.e. cause binary damage. Anecdotes from modern eruptions suggest, however, that lava flows may cause a spectrum of damage and that there may be options for mitigation. An impact assessment framework is used in this study to determine the impact of lava flows on the built environment. First, a collation of modern effusive eruptions that have threatened and/or inundated inhabited areas and their supporting networks is created. These events are analysed for research gaps and lessons learned using a deductive thematic analysis based on eleven data types that could aid in lava flow hazard and risk studies. Second, interviews and focus groups with scientists, emergency managers, their industry partners, and community members help fill the research gaps identified for four of the studied eruptions. These discussions have also revealed that research stakeholders are especially interested in how buried infrastructure would fare under a lava flow. To address this, a series of laboratory molten rock flows were created. The temperature profiles under the molten rock were recorded as the rock cooled and serve as the basis of a computational heat transfer model. To verify the constrained heat transfer model, magnetic properties of soil samples from under the June 27th Lava Flow (2014- 2015; Hawaii, USA) were analysed to determine the peak temperatures to which they were heated while the flow was active. The heat transfer model recreated the peak temperature profile without requiring any alterations. To apply the resulting hazard model in an impact assessment, Birkenhead scenario of the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) scenarios was selected as an Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; New Zealand) case study. Lava flow simulation modelling was required to determine the elements of the built environment that would be exposed to the lava flow. As of January 2020, there are 31 lava flow simulation models, each with different strengths and weaknesses. A selection framework was created to aid in determining which model(s) are best suited to different purposes. It takes required outputs, available inputs, and stakeholder requirements into account. In the DEVORA case study, the selection framework indicated that MOLASSES would be the most appropriate model for the AVF buried infrastructure impact assessment. The lava flow simulation modelling was undertaken twice, once on a digital elevation model and once on a digital surface model. The results were compared using a modified Jaccard coefficient and serve as a reminder that the built environment can have a substantial impact on where lava flows advance. The overlap of 40% between the two areal footprints indicated that the digital surface model results more accurately reflect the AVF situation than the digital elevation model results. Then, the thermal vulnerability of buried infrastructure was gathered from conversations with stakeholders at utility companies in Auckland and Hawaii. A deterministic method to assess the lava flow thermal impacts to buried infrastructure utilising simulation modelling, thermo-rheological modelling, and heat transfer modelling is introduced and applied to the Birkenhead scenario. The heat transfer modelling revealed that the electric transmission cable running on the eastern side of Birkenhead will likely be operable for more than a week after the ground above is first inundated. Several mitigation measures are suggested to prolong the operability of the electric cable. One month after the lava has been emplaced, the substrate surrounding the cable is too warm to continue operations. Due to the highly elevated temperatures to which the cable is exposed, the cable will likely need to be replaced after the lava cools. While the damage in this case study is likely complete, it does not follow the assumed binary damage paradigm as the damage is progressive and is not necessarily always complete in every eruption. This suggests that, similar to other volcanic hazards, lava flows can cause a spectrum of damage and that mitigation is possible.
Book Synopsis Magma and Lava Flow Modeling and Volcanic System Definition Aimed at Hazard Assessment at Etna by : Flavio Dobran
Download or read book Magma and Lava Flow Modeling and Volcanic System Definition Aimed at Hazard Assessment at Etna written by Flavio Dobran and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Volcanic Simulation, 2 by : Flavio Dobran
Download or read book Global Volcanic Simulation, 2 written by Flavio Dobran and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera by : Andrea Bevilacqua
Download or read book Doubly Stochastic Models for Volcanic Hazard Assessment at Campi Flegrei Caldera written by Andrea Bevilacqua and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-03 with total page 234 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.
Author :National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher :National Academies Press ISBN 13 :0309454158 Total Pages :135 pages Book Rating :4.3/5 (94 download)
Book Synopsis Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Download or read book Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2017-07-24 with total page 135 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptionsâ€"where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences. Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.
Book Synopsis Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions by : A.J.L. Harris
Download or read book Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions written by A.J.L. Harris and published by Geological Society of London. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 680 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For effusive volcanoes in resource-poor regions, there is a pressing need for a crisis response-chain bridging the global scientific community to allow provision of standard products for timely humanitarian response. As a first step in attaining this need, this Special Publication provides a complete directory of current operational capabilities for monitoring effusive eruptions. This volume also reviews the state-of-the-art in terms of satellite-based volcano hot-spot tracking and lava-flow simulation. These capabilities are demonstrated using case studies taken from well-known effusive events that have occurred worldwide over the last two decades at volcanoes such as Piton de la Fournaise, Etna, Stromboli and Kilauea. We also provide case-type response models implemented at the same volcanoes, as well as the results of a community-wide drill used to test a fully-integrated response focused on an operational hazard-GIS. Finally, the objectives and recommendations of the ‘Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters’ working group are laid out in a statement of community needs by its members.
Download or read book Etna written by F. Dobran and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards by : Elisa Trasatti
Download or read book The Impact of Open Science for Evaluation of Volcanic Hazards written by Elisa Trasatti and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-05-11 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters by : Paolo Papale
Download or read book Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters written by Paolo Papale and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-10-29 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters provides you with the latest scientific developments in volcano and volcanic research, including causality, impacts, preparedness, risk analysis, planning, response, recovery, and the economics of loss and remediation. It takes a geoscientific approach to the topic while integrating the social and economic issues related to volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters. Throughout the book case studies are presented of historically relevant volcanic and seismic hazards and disasters as well as recent catastrophes, such as Chile’s Puyehue volcano eruption in June 2011. Puts the expertise of top volcanologists, seismologists, geologists, and geophysicists selected by a world-renowned editorial board at your fingertips Presents you with the latest research—including case studies of prominent volcanoes and volcanic hazards and disasters—on causality, economic impacts, fatality rates, and earthquake preparedness and mitigation Numerous tables, maps, diagrams, illustrations, photographs, and video captures of hazardous processes support you in grasping key concepts
Book Synopsis RiskScape Volcano - a Volcanic Hazard Risk Assessment Model for RiskScape by : Grant D. Kaye
Download or read book RiskScape Volcano - a Volcanic Hazard Risk Assessment Model for RiskScape written by Grant D. Kaye and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Volcanic Unrest by : Joachim Gottsmann
Download or read book Volcanic Unrest written by Joachim Gottsmann and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book summarizes the findings of the VUELCO project, a multi-disciplinary and cross-boundary research funded by the European Commission's 7th framework program. It comprises four broad topics: 1. The global significance of volcanic unrest 2. Geophysical and geochemical fingerprints of unrest and precursory activity 3. Magma dynamics leading to unrest phenomena 4. Bridging the gap between science and decision-making Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon. The fact that unrest may, or may not lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term volcanic hazard and risk assessment. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the understanding of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. When a volcano evolves from dormancy into a phase of unrest, important scientific, political and social questions need to be addressed. This book is aimed at graduate students, researchers of volcanic phenomena, professionals in volcanic hazard and risk assessment, observatory personnel, as well as emergency managers who wish to learn about the complex nature of volcanic unrest and how to utilize new findings to deal with unrest phenomena at scientific and emergency managing levels. This book is open access under a CC BY license.
Book Synopsis Modeling Volcanic Processes by : Sarah A. Fagents
Download or read book Modeling Volcanic Processes written by Sarah A. Fagents and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2021-02-11 with total page 902 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the physical behavior of volcanoes is key to mitigating the hazards active volcanoes pose to the ever-increasing populations living nearby. The processes involved in volcanic eruptions are driven by a series of interlinked physical phenomena, and to fully understand these, volcanologists must employ various physics subdisciplines. This book provides the first advanced-level, one-stop resource examining the physics of volcanic behavior and reviewing the state-of-the-art in modeling volcanic processes. Each chapter begins by explaining simple modeling formulations and progresses to present cutting-edge research illustrated by case studies. Individual chapters cover subsurface magmatic processes through to eruption in various environments and conclude with the application of modeling to understanding the other volcanic planets of our Solar System. Providing an accessible and practical text for graduate students of physical volcanology, this book is also an important resource for researchers and professionals in the fields of volcanology, geophysics, geochemistry, petrology and natural hazards.
Book Synopsis Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards by : Roberto Scarpa
Download or read book Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards written by Roberto Scarpa and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 846 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: By the year 2000, the number of people at risk from volcanic hazards is likely to increase to around half a billion. Since 1980, significant advances have been made in volcano monitoring, the data from which provides the sole scientific basis for eruption prediction. Here, internationally renowned and highly experienced specialists provide 25 comprehensive articles covering a wide range of related topics: monitoring techniques and data analysis; modelling of monitoring data and eruptive phenomena; volcanic hazards and risk assessment; and volcanic emergency management. Selected case histories of recent volcanic disasters, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, demonstrate that effective communication - between scientists, civil authorities, the media and the population at risk - is essential to reducing the danger.
Book Synopsis Source-book for Volcanic-hazards Zonation by : Dwight Raymond Crandell
Download or read book Source-book for Volcanic-hazards Zonation written by Dwight Raymond Crandell and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk by : Susan C. Loughlin
Download or read book Global Volcanic Hazards and Risk written by Susan C. Loughlin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first comprehensive assessment of global volcanic hazards and risk, with detailed regional profiles, for the disaster risk reduction community. Also available as Open Access.
