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Model Uncertainty Optimal Monetary Policy And The Preferences Of The Fed
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Book Synopsis Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed by : Efrem Castelnuovo
Download or read book Model Uncertainty, Optimal Monetary Policy and the Preferences of the Fed written by Efrem Castelnuovo and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Optimal Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty Without Commitment by : Anna Orlik
Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty Without Commitment written by Anna Orlik and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Robust Control and Optimal Monetary Policy Design by : Li Qin
Download or read book Uncertainty, Robust Control and Optimal Monetary Policy Design written by Li Qin and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis analyze the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty. By adopting the framework proposed by Hansen and Sargent (2003), we analyze the behaviors of monetary authorities and private agents when faced with various sources of uncertainty, as well as their consequences in terms of macroeconomic performances. Our work shows that, in order to guard against the possibly catastrophic results of the worst-case scenario, central bankers have to react in an active manner, by manipulating the interest rate. However, in an open economy, the magnitude of this adjustment decreases with the degree of openness. Also, greater transparency of the central bank's objectives, by reducing preference uncertainty, will attenuate the variations of macroeconomic variables that follow the consideration of possible erroneous specifications. It is thus advisable to reveal informations about the central bankers' preferences, including their own estimates of the degree of model uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Optimal Monetary Policy in a Micro-founded Model with Parameter Uncertainty by : Takeshi Kimura
Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy in a Micro-founded Model with Parameter Uncertainty written by Takeshi Kimura and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty by : Lars E. O. Svensson
Download or read book Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty written by Lars E. O. Svensson and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We examine optimal and other monetary policies in a linear-quadratic setup with a relatively general form of model uncertainty, so-called Markov jump-linear-quadratic systems extended to include forward-looking variables. The form of model uncertainty our framework encompasses includes: simple i.i.d. model deviations; serially correlated model deviations; estimable regime-switching models; more complex structural uncertainty about very different models, for instance, backward- and forward-looking models; time-varying central-bank judgment about the state of model uncertainty; and so forth. We provide an algorithm for finding the optimal policy as well as solutions for arbitrary policy functions. This allows us to compute and plot consistent distribution forecasts---fan charts---of target variables and instruments. Our methods hence extend certainty equivalence and "mean forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site
Book Synopsis Is the Fed Too Thin? Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World by :
Download or read book Is the Fed Too Thin? Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World written by and published by . This book was released on with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco presents the full text of an article entitled "Is the Fed Too Thin? Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World," by Glenn D. Rudebusch. Estimates of the Taylor rule suggest that monetary policy in the United States can be characterized as having reacted in a moderate fashion to output and inflation gaps. The article discusses an attempt to match the historical policy rule with an optimal policy rule by incorporating uncertainty into the derivation of the optimal rule and by examining plausible variations in the policymaker's model and preferences.
Book Synopsis The Performance of Forecast-based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty by : Andrew T. Levin
Download or read book The Performance of Forecast-based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty written by Andrew T. Levin and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy by : Marc Paolo Giannoni
Download or read book Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Marc Paolo Giannoni and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 388 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Essays on Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics by : Mingjun Zhao
Download or read book Essays on Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics written by Mingjun Zhao and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: My dissertation grapples with the issues of model uncertainty in macroeconomics, and analyzes its consequences for monetary policy. It consists of three essays. In the first essay (Chapter 1), "Monetary Policy under Misspecified Expectations", I examine policy choices for the central bank that faces uncertainty about the process of expectation formation by economic agents. The economy contains both "rule-of-thumb" agents who base their expectations on recent observations and agents who have rational expectations. The central bank is uncertain about the fraction of the rule-of-thumb agents. This uncertainty concern enables me to partially rationalize the over cautious policy stance of the Fed: empirically observed policy in the past two decades involves much weaker responses than optimal policies derived from various micro-founded models. It is well understood that when the economy is more forward-looking, the central bank displays more aggressive responses to inflation and output. But the uncertainty-averse central bank evaluates policies by the performance in the worst case. In my economy this has a high fraction of agents that are backward-looking. The best policy the central bank chooses thus involves moderate responses. That is to say, this minimax policy moves closer toward actual less responsive policy. In the second essay (Chapter 2), "Phillips Curve Uncertainty and Monetary Policy", I investigate the effect of model uncertainty on policy choices employing a more general approach, which nests the minimax and Bayesian approaches as limiting cases. The central bank is uncertain about whether the economy has a sticky price Phillips curve or a sticky information Phillips curve. I argue that how the central bank chooses a policy depends both on its perception of uncertainty environment and on its attitude towards uncertainty. I find that as the central bank either becomes more uncertainty-averse or considers sticky information more plausible, the response to inflation decreases and to output increases. The third essay (Chapter 3) is entitled "Optimal Simple Rules in RE Models with Risk Sensitive Preferences". This paper provides a useful method to solve optimal simple rules under risk sensitive preference in macro models with forward looking behavior. An application to a new Keynesian model with lagged dynamics is offered and risk sensitive preference is found to amplify policy responses.
Book Synopsis Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertainty by : Roger Craine
Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy with Uncertainty written by Roger Craine and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Parameters' Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy by : Carlo A. Favero
Download or read book Parameters' Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty by : Rochelle Mary Edge
Download or read book Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty written by Rochelle Mary Edge and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 78 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.
Book Synopsis Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Second Edition by : Richard T. Froyen
Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty, Second Edition written by Richard T. Froyen and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Casting a wide net in this, their second edition, Froyen and Guender provide coverage of the model-based literature on optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty, with both open- and closed-economy frameworks considered. The authors have grounded New Keynesian research of the 1990s and 2000s in the literature of the 1970s, which viewed optimal policy as primarily a question of the optimal use of information, and studies in the 1980s that gave primacy to time inconsistency problems. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-09 led to the recognition that financial markets and institutions required greater attention in policy modelling. Herein, the authors provide a thorough survey of the post-crisis literature that resulted from this recognition.Researchers in academia and at central banks, students and policy makers will value the wide scope of coverage provided in this examination, leading them to a better understanding of issues such as discretion versus commitment, target versus instrument rules, policy in closed versus open economies and the proper mandate for central banks, including the relationship between interest rate policy and macro-prudential instruments.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Strategy by : Frederic S. Mishkin
Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategy written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2007 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategydescribes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, "Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask," which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anch fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States by : Robert J. Tetlow
Download or read book Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States written by Robert J. Tetlow and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Central Banking in Theory and Practice by : Alan S. Blinder
Download or read book Central Banking in Theory and Practice written by Alan S. Blinder and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999-01-07 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Alan S. Blinder offers the dual perspective of a leading academic macroeconomist who served a stint as Vice-Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board—one who practiced what he had long preached and then returned to academia to write about it. He tells central bankers how they might better incorporate academic knowledge and thinking into the conduct of monetary policy, and he tells scholars how they might reorient their research to be more attuned to reality and thus more useful to central bankers. Based on the 1996 Lionel Robbins Lectures, this readable book deals succinctly, in a nontechnical manner, with a wide variety of issues in monetary policy. The book also includes the author's suggested solution to an age-old problem in monetary theory: what it means for monetary policy to be "neutral."