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Author : Maurice Obstfeld
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Model Trending Real Exchange Rates written by Maurice Obstfeld and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642456413
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Author : Sven-Morten Mentzel
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642590179
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (425 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Movements written by Sven-Morten Mentzel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One aim of this book is to examine the causes of fluctuations in the mark/dollar, pound/dollar, and yen/dollar real exchange rates for the period 1972-1994 with quarterly data to determine appropriate policy recommendations to reduce these movements. A second aim is to investigate whether the three real exchange rates are covariance-stationary or not and to which extent they are covariance-stationary, respectively. These aims are reached by using a two-country overshooting model for real exchange rates with real government expenditure and by applying Johansen's maximum likelihood cointegration procedure and a factor model of Gonzalo and Granger to this model.
Author : Menzie David Chinn
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451962169
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rate Levels, Productivity and Demand Shocks written by Menzie David Chinn and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-05-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, traded and nontraded productivity levels, and government spending for 14 OECD countries, using recently developed panel cointegration tests. The results indicate that under certain assumptions it is easier to detect cointegration in panel data than in the available time series; moreover, the rate of reversion to long-run equilibrium is estimated with greater precision. Using the model augmented by oil prices, we find that in 1991 (the last year productivity data are available) there is less overvaluation of the U.S. dollar than that implied by a naive version of purchasing power parity.
Author : Mr.C. John McDermott
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846924
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Estimation of the Near Unit Root Model of Real Exchange Rates written by Mr.C. John McDermott and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The time-series properties of real exchange rates, on a number of definitions, for 22 industrial countries during 1979-95 were used to re-examine whether PPP holds. It is shown that if real exchange rates reverted to a constant mean slowly, say by five percent a month, then at standard levels of significance we should expect 11 of the 22 series examined to yield evidence of mean reversion and to reject that hypothesis of a unit root. Using models that imply a constant unconditional mean or trend-stationary productivity changes, we find that only one of the 22 real exchange rates shows evidence against unit roots. This low rate of rejection of unit roots in real exchange rates can be construed as evidence against PPP.
Author : Mr.Ronald MacDonald
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451921675
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Long and Short of it written by Mr.Ronald MacDonald and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-02-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a reduced-form model of the real exchange rate. Using multilateral cointegration methods, the model is implemented for the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, the mark, and the yen, over the period 1974-1993. In contrast to much other research using real exchange rates, there is evidence of significant and sensible long-run relationships for a simplified version as well as for the full version of the model. The estimated long-run relationships are used to produce dynamic equations, which outperform a random walk and produce sensible dynamic patterns in the context of an impulse response analysis.
Author : Jerome L. Stein
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780198293064
Total Pages : 276 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Fundamental Determinants of Exchange Rates written by Jerome L. Stein and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund
Author : V. V. Chari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates? written by V. V. Chari and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The central puzzle in international business cycles is that real exchange rates are volatile and persistent. The most popular story for real exchange rate fluctuations is that they are generated by monetary shocks interacting with sticky goods prices. We quantify this story and find that it can account for some of the observed properties of real exchange rates. When prices are held fixed for at least one year, risk aversion is high and preferences are separable in leisure, the model generates real exchange rates that are as volatile as in the data. The model also generates real exchange rates that are persistent, but less so than in the data. If monetary shocks are correlated across countries, then the comovements in aggregates across countries are broadly consistent with those in the data. Making asset markets incomplete or introducing sticky wages does not measurably change the results.
Author : Daron Acemoglu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780226002026
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2008-03 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007 address exchange-rate models; implications of credit market frictions; cyclical budgetary policy and economic growth; the impacts of shocks to government spending on consumption, real wages, and employment; dynamic macroeconomic models; and the role of cyclical entry of new firms and products on the nature of business-cycle fluctuations and on the effects of monetary policy.
Author : Jessica James
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118445775
Total Pages : 674 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Exchange Rates written by Jessica James and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-05-29 with total page 674 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today’s international economic climate. Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections: • Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination. • Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow–based models. • FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products. • FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises. Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts. Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author : P. de Grauwe
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349172863
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (491 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rates in Multicountry Econometric Models written by P. de Grauwe and published by Springer. This book was released on 1983-12-01 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael Rosenberg
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 9780071415019
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2003-05-19 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.
Author : Tatsuma Wada
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book The Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Differentials written by Tatsuma Wada and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose an alternative model and method to reconcile the puzzling feature in the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials. Our simple two-country model with preset prices, along with firms' misperception about the future exchange rate, implies that the real exchange rate follows an ARIMA (0,1,p) process. This allows us to compute the exact Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which is a model-consistent decomposition. In accordance with our model, unit roots in the real exchange rates are found; and statistical inference is partially found to be affirmative regarding the link between the real exchange rate detrended by the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and corresponding real interest differentials.
Author : Mark P. Taylor
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317988191
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)
Download or read book Purchasing Power Parity and Real Exchange Rates written by Mark P. Taylor and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-09-13 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The term Purchasing Power Parity may date from the early twentieth century, when it was coined by the Swedish economist Gustav Cassel, but the underlying concept had been enjoying varying degrees of success since its development in sixteenth century Spain. Even towards the end of the twentieth century, and especially since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, PPP and the stability of real exchange rates continued to be the subject of academic debate. This volume brings together essays covering aspects of current thinking on Purchasing Power Parity, from the various ways in which to test for its existence, to its appearance in different economies around the world, to examinations of the explanations given when PPP does not appear to hold This book was published as a special issue of Applied Financial Economics. The academic editor of this journal is Mark P. Taylor.
Author : Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451922515
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates and the Prices of Nontradable Goods written by Mr.Gian Milesi-Ferretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-02-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to provide a perspective on real exchange rate developments following the inception of the EMS. The focus is on structural determinants of real exchange rates, notably the behavior of tradables and nontradable prices and productivity. It is found that changes in the relative price of tradable goods in terms of nontradables account for a sizable fraction of real exchange rate dynamics during the EMS period. Sectoral productivity growth differential help explain the behavior of the relative price of tradable goods, especially in the long run. There is also some evidence that the EMS has extended on relative price behavior.
Author : Steve Brito
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484356349
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment written by Steve Brito and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-10 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.
Author : Florian Huber
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (116 download)
Download or read book Trend Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Florian Huber and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a multivariate unobserved components stochastic volatility model to explain the dynamics of a panel of six exchange rates against the US Dollar. The empirical model is based on the assumption that both countries' monetary policy strategies may be well described by Taylor rules with a time-varying inflation target, a time-varying natural rate of unemployment, and interest rate smoothing. Compared to the existing literature, our model simultaneously provides estimates of the latent components included in a typical Taylor rule specification and the model-based real exchange rate. Our estimates closely track major movements along with important time series properties of real and nominal exchange rates across all currencies considered, outperforming a benchmark model that does not account for changes in trend inflation and trend unemployment. More precisely, the proposed approach improves upon competing models in tracking the actual evolution of the real exchange rate in terms of simple correlations while it appreciably improves upon simpler competitors in terms of matching the persistence of the real exchange rate.
