Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change :.

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (122 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change :. by :

Download or read book Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change :. written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change by :

Download or read book Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are included. The outputs from simulations illustrate potential changes in aquatic conditions and terrestrial habitat, potential for wood utilization, and socioeconomic opportunities. The 14 chapters of this document outline the current state of knowledge in each of the areas covered by the INLAS project and describe the objectives and organization of the project. The project explores ways to integrate the effects of natural disturbances and management into planning and policy analyses; illustrate potential conflicts among current policies, natural distrubances, and management activities; and explore the policy, economics, and ecological constraints associated with the application of effective fuel treatments on midscale landscapes in the interior Northwest.

Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change

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Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781511543910
Total Pages : 228 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (439 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change by : Forest S. U S Department of Agriculture

Download or read book Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change written by Forest S. U S Department of Agriculture and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System (INLAS) links a number of resource, disturbance, and landscape simulations models to examine the interactions of vegetative succession, management, and disturbance with policy goals. The effects of natural disturbance like wildfire, herbivory, forest insects and diseases, as well as specific management actions are included. The outputs from simulations illustrate potential changes in aquatic conditions and terrestrial habitat, potential for wood utilization, and socioeconomic opportunities. The 14 chapters of this document outline the current state of knowledge in each of the areas covered by the INLAS project and describe the objectives and organization of the project. The project explores ways to integrate the effects of natural disturbances and management into planning and policy analyses; illustrate potential conflicts among current policies, natural distrubances, and management activities; and explore the policy, economics, and ecological constraints associated with the application of effective fuel treatments on midscale landscapes in the interior Northwest.

Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 218 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (254 download)

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Book Synopsis Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System by : Jane L. Hayes

Download or read book Methods for Integrated Modeling of Landscape Change: Interior Northwest Landscape Analysis System written by Jane L. Hayes and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Advancing Land Change Modeling

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Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309288363
Total Pages : 267 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Advancing Land Change Modeling by : National Research Council

Download or read book Advancing Land Change Modeling written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2014-03-31 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services and Land-Use Change

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Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811391254
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (113 download)

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Book Synopsis Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services and Land-Use Change by : Youjia Liang

Download or read book Integrated Modelling of Ecosystem Services and Land-Use Change written by Youjia Liang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2019-10-17 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents essential case studies on the integrated modelling of ecosystem services and land-use change in the field of landscape ecology. The case studies were mainly conducted in the Zhangye oasis of the Hexi corridor and the upper reaches of the Heihe river basin, including Loess plateau (for wind power) and the inland waterways of the Yangtze River (for the regulation of extreme events). The book puts forward an integrated modelling method, including human activities, natural processes, land-use change, and ecosystem management, and explores multiple scenarios based on the interests of local managers and their implications for ecosystem services. As the book demonstrates, the integrated modelling method for ecosystem services and land-use change can serve as a valuable tool for gauging the impact of various development scenarios in this study area, and in other regions with similar characteristics. In addition, numerous charts and diagrams are included in each chapter, facilitating the simulation and assessment of specific land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in various study areas.

Simulating Urban Landscape Transformation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 198 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Simulating Urban Landscape Transformation by : Opeyemi A. Zubair

Download or read book Simulating Urban Landscape Transformation written by Opeyemi A. Zubair and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Urban landscape change simulation has received increasing attention in recent times. As a result, many studies have focused on various aspects of land change simulation, ranging from uncertainty of input data to model accuracy. While efforts have been put into improving many of the existing urban land change models and developing new ones, not so much has been done in understanding the significance of methods of classifying the satellite images often used as input maps in many of these models. In addition, few studies have been done to assess the impact of modeled landscapes on surrounding natural ecosystems such as urban wetlands, which have served as sensitive indicator of both human impacts and climate variation. In this study, the aim was to simulate the change in Kansas City landscape, and to assess the impact of the change on wetlands at various spatial scales within the study area. To achieve this, the study was divided into three parts. The first part examined how significant the impacts of classification methods of input land cover maps are on the overall accuracy of the urban land change prediction used in this study. This was done by classifying the historical SPOT satellite images of Kansas City using multi-layer perceptron neural network and maximum likelihood classification techniques. The impact of these two classification methods on the overall accuracy of land change prediction was assessed. The study made use of the classified map of a known year and other historical high-resolution satellite data of the study area from Google Earth to validate results from both predictions. The result from this first part shows that the methods selected in classifying satellite images often used as input in many land change models can significantly affect land change prediction. In the second and third parts, two model methods (Similarity Weighted Instance-based Machine Learning - SimWeight and Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network - MLP) were compared to determine which is most appropriate for use in this study. To achieve this, the study utilized an integrated approach that combined Similarity Weighted Instance-based Machine Learning and Markov model in one approach and Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov chain in a second approach. These two methods were used in simulating the landscape change of three major watersheds in the Kansas City area into a known year. The model that performed best was used in simulating into the future and the impact of change was assessed on wetlands at different scales. In order to achieve this, classified SPOT satellite data covering the three major watersheds were used to generate the historical land cover data series between 1992 and 2010. In addition, the study identified several land change variables associated with the historical change process in the study area. These variables together with the result of the historical land change between 1992 and 2010 were used in modeling urban landscape transformation into an end date of 2014 for both model methods assessed. A Markov model was applied to perform these predictions. The prediction results were verified with a more accurate map that was derived from independently classifying a 2014 SPOT image of the study area. Accuracy assessments for the 2014 predicted maps and the independently classified map of 2014 were compared. Based on a higher accuracy result obtained for the SimWeight approach, prediction into an end date of 2028 was made. The historical impact of human-induced landscape change on wetlands between 1992 & 2010 and the potential impact by 2028 were assessed for the study area. This integrated modeling approach in combination with land change driving variables provided valuable insights about how the landscape of the three major watersheds may develop in the future, and how this development may affect urban wetlands in the study area.

Agent-Based Modelling and Landscape Change

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Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3038422800
Total Pages : 327 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (384 download)

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Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modelling and Landscape Change by : James D. A. Millington

Download or read book Agent-Based Modelling and Landscape Change written by James D. A. Millington and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Agent-Based Modelling and Landscape Change" that was published in Land

Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid Ecosystems of the Western US

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319249304
Total Pages : 475 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (192 download)

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Book Synopsis Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid Ecosystems of the Western US by : Matthew J. Germino

Download or read book Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid Ecosystems of the Western US written by Matthew J. Germino and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-01-22 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Invasions by exotic grasses, particularly annuals, rank among the most extensive and intensive ways that humans are contributing to the transformation of the earth’s surface. The problem is particularly notable with a suite of exotic grasses in the Bromus genus in the arid and semiarid regions that dominate the western United States, which extend from the dry basins near the Sierra and Cascade Ranges across the Intermountain Region and Rockies to about 105° longitude. This genus includes approximately 150 species that have a wide range of invasive and non-invasive tendencies in their home ranges and in North America. Bromus species that became invasive upon introduction to North America in the late 1800’s, such as Bromus tectorum and B. rubens, have since became the dominant cover on millions of hectares. Here, millenia of ecosystem development led to landscapes that would otherwise be dominated by perennial shrubs, herbs, and biotic soil crusts that were able to persist in spite of variable and scarce precipitation. This native ecosystem resilience is increasingly coveted by land owners and managers as more hectares lose their resistance to Bromus grasses and similar exotics and as climate, land use, and disturbance-regime changes are also superimposed. Managers are increasingly challenged to glean basic services from these ecosystems as they become invaded. Exotic annual grasses reduce wildlife and livestock carrying capacity and increase the frequency and extent of wildfi res and associated soil erosion. This book uses a unique ecoregional and multidisciplinary approach to evaluate the invasiveness, impacts, and management of the large Bromus genus. Students, researchers, and practitioners interested in Bromus specifically and invasive exotics in general will benefit from the depth of knowledge summarized in the book.

Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling by : Sam Cushman

Download or read book Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling written by Sam Cushman and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods, and context. Often results are not readily comparable among studies and defy integration. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling paradigms: empirical gradient models, mechanistic ecosystem models, and stochastic landscape disturbance models. We then propose a synthetic approach to multi-scale analysis of the effects of climatic change and disturbance on forest ecosystems. Empirical gradient models provide an anchor and spatial template for stand-level forest ecosystem models by quantifying key parameters for individual species and accounting for broad-scale geographic variation among them. Gradient imputation transfers predictions of fine-scale forest composition and structure across geographic space. Mechanistic ecosystem dynamic models predict the responses of biological variables to specific environmental drivers and facilitate understanding of temporal dynamics and disequilibrium. Stochastic landscape dynamics models predict frequency, extent, and severity of broad-scale disturbance. A robust linkage of these three modeling paradigms will facilitate prediction of the effects of altered fire and other disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems at multiple scales and in the context of climatic variability and change.

A Changing World

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1402044364
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis A Changing World by : Felix Kienast

Download or read book A Changing World written by Felix Kienast and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-03-16 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern landscape research uses a panoply of techniques to further our understanding of our changing world, including mathematics, statistics and advanced simulation techniques to combine empirical observations with known theories. This book identifies emerging fields and new challenges that are discussed within the framework of the ‘driving forces’ of Landscape Development. the book addresses all of the ‘hot topics’ in this important area of study and emphasizes major contemporary trends in these fields.

Operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in the tropics

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Publisher : CIFOR
ISBN 13 : 6023871380
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (238 download)

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Book Synopsis Operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in the tropics by : Reed, J.

Download or read book Operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in the tropics written by Reed, J. and published by CIFOR. This book was released on 2020-10-29 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Poverty, food insecurity, biodiversity and habitat loss are persistent global challenges that are further exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. These challenges are particularly hard felt in the tropical landscapes of the global South where tensions between local socio-economic and international environmental commitments are pervasive. Due to the apparent failure of sectorial approaches to address such challenges, more holistic strategies are being increasingly promoted. Integrated landscape approaches are one such example; essentially a governance strategy that engages multiple stakeholders to reconcile societal and environmental objectives at the landscape scale to identify trade-offs and potential synergies for more sustainable and equitable land management. Integrated landscape approaches have been widely endorsed in the international and national policy arena, within academia, and in the discourse surrounding conservation and development funding. However, despite strong scientific theories and concepts, the implementation, and particularly evaluation and reporting, of integrated landscape approaches in the tropics remains poorly developed. The COLANDS initiative represents an explicit attempt to contribute towards the evidence base by operationalizing integrated landscape approaches in Ghana, Zambia and Indonesia. In this regard we aim to provide regular, honest reporting of progress. This book details the experiences of researchers engaged in these landscape-scale initiatives across the first two years of implementation. With dedicated chapters on current progress, biodiversity, methods and evaluation the book provides useful tools and resources for research and implementation. Furthermore, we consider the complex socio-political challenges associated with landscape approaches with chapters focussed on how to effectively engaging stakeholders and understanding the national policy environment. We then provide profiles of the sites in each of the three countries and describe the historical context, current status and potential for more integrated landscape governance. This book explores the techniques and strategies that can be deployed to improve the governance and management of land and natural resources and better reconcile conservation and development objectives in tropical landscapes undergoing rapid change. Contents Foreword Acknowledgments Author bios Executive Summary Introduction and backgroundJames Reed, Mirjam Ros-Tonen and Terry Sunderland Integrated landscape approaches in the tropicsJames Reed, Amy Ickowitz, Colas Chervier, Houria Djoudi, Kaala B Moombe, Mirjam Ros-Tonen, Malaika Yanou, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Terry Sunderland The role of biodiversity in integrated landscape approachesJoli R Borah, Yves Laumonier, Eric RC Bayala, Houria Djoudi, Davison Gumbo, Kaala B Moombe, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Mathurin Zida Engaging multiple stakeholders to reconcile climate, conservation and development objectives in tropical landscapesJames Reed, Jos Barlow, Rachel Carmenta, Josh van Vianen and Terry Sunderland Theories of change and monitoring and evaluation types for landscape approachesColas Chervier, Marie-Gabrielle Piketty and James Reed A methods toolbox for integrated landscape approachesJames Reed, Joli R Borah, Colas Chervier, James Langston, Moira Moeliono, Alida O’Connor, Elizabeth L Yuliani and Terry Sunderland Potential for integration? An assessment of national environment and development policiesAlida O’Connor, Houria Djoudi, Moira Moeliono, Kaala B Moombe and Freddie S Siangulube Context for landscape approach implementation in the Western Wildlife Corridor Landscape (Northern Ghana)Eric RC Bayala, Houria Djoudi, Mirjam Ros-Tonen and Mathurin Zida Understanding landscape dynamics: A case study from Kalomo DistrictKaala B Moombe, Freddie S Siangulube, Bravedo M Mwaanga, Tiza I Mfuni, Malaika P Yanou, Davison J Gumbo, Rays C Mwansa and Gilbert Juunza Kapuas Hulu: A background analysis to implementing an integrated landscape approachAugusta M Anandi, Elizabeth L Yuliani, Moira Moeliono, Yves Laumonier and Sari Narulita Conclusion and the way forwardTerry Sunderland, James Reed and Mirjam Ros-Tonen

Landscape Simulation Modeling

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387215557
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Landscape Simulation Modeling by : Robert Costanza

Download or read book Landscape Simulation Modeling written by Robert Costanza and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-06-02 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world consists of many complex systems, ranging from our own bodies to ecosystems to economic systems. Despite their diversity, complex systems have many structural and functional features in common that can be effectively si- lated using powerful, user-friendly software. As a result, virtually anyone can - plore the nature of complex systems and their dynamical behavior under a range of assumptions and conditions. This ability to model dynamic systems is already having a powerful influence on teaching and studying complexity. The books in this series will promote this revolution in “systems thinking” by integrating computational skills of numeracy and techniques of dynamic mod- ing into a variety of disciplines. The unifying theme across the series will be the power and simplicity of the model-building process, and all books are designed to engage the reader in developing their own models for exploration of the dyn- ics of systems that are of interest to them. Modeling Dynamic Systems does not endorse any particular modeling paradigm or software. Rather, the volumes in the series will emphasize simplicity of lea- ing, expressive power, and the speed of execution as priorities that will facilitate deeper system understanding.

Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461559731
Total Pages : 644 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (615 download)

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Book Synopsis Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems by : Shripad Tuljapurkar

Download or read book Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial, and Freshwater Systems written by Shripad Tuljapurkar and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 644 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the summer of 1993, twenty-six graduate and postdoctoral stu dents and fourteen lecturers converged on Cornell University for a summer school devoted to structured-population models. This school was one of a series to address concepts cutting across the traditional boundaries separating terrestrial, marine, and freshwa ter ecology. Earlier schools resulted in the books Patch Dynamics (S. A. Levin, T. M. Powell & J. H. Steele, eds., Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1993) and Ecological Time Series (T. M. Powell & J. H. Steele, eds., Chapman and Hall, New York, 1995); a book on food webs is in preparation. Models of population structure (differences among individuals due to age, size, developmental stage, spatial location, or genotype) have an important place in studies of all three kinds of ecosystem. In choosing the participants and lecturers for the school, we se lected for diversity-biologists who knew some mathematics and mathematicians who knew some biology, field biologists sobered by encounters with messy data and theoreticians intoxicated by the elegance of the underlying mathematics, people concerned with long-term evolutionary problems and people concerned with the acute crises of conservation biology. For four weeks, these perspec tives swirled in discussions that started in the lecture hall and carried on into the sweltering Ithaca night. Diversity mayor may not increase stability, but it surely makes things interesting.

Modelling Landscape Changes and Metrics, and Determining Optimal Resource Allocation by Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Government Policy, and Economics

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (959 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Landscape Changes and Metrics, and Determining Optimal Resource Allocation by Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Government Policy, and Economics by : Kayla D. Stan

Download or read book Modelling Landscape Changes and Metrics, and Determining Optimal Resource Allocation by Integrating Geographic Information Systems, Government Policy, and Economics written by Kayla D. Stan and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The main goal of this thesis is to contribute to the knowledge base of land use and land cover change dynamics in ecologically sensitive, seasonal environments with a dominant agricultural industry. Anthropogenic alteration by land-based industries currently threatens many ecosystems, including the neotropics, and agricultural belt of North America. By fusing spatial information with socioeconomics through Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial modeling platforms, gaps in the understanding of the dynamics in these landscapes are addressed. Biogeophysical variables, used in conjunction with the landscape maps, were utilized to develop a baseline projection model in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (EGO). Future scenarios were based on integrating legislative polices and economic factors. This makes it an effective tool for policy makers. The second chapter outlines the impacts of current legislation, in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, on the remaining natural land. Recent revisions to the federal environmental policy and international agreements, of which the country is a signatory, will lead to different environmental paths. A secondary economic model indicates that incorporating the value of biodiversity into the land sale price can significantly decrease the quantity of land that is altered over the next decade. The third chapter runs a similar integrated modeling system in Alberta, Canada. Alberta, however, has sparse environmental policies and the platform served as a method of creating and predicting the effects of legislation on the landscape. If the government intervenes and deters urban sprawl that has historically been present, there are several ways to balance economic growth and environmental protection through landscape design policies. The results of my research indicate that the Dinamica system is an effective cross-continental tool for policy makers. Future research should focus on the integration of information into a holistic system. It should also include avenues to engage in interdisciplinary studies. Communication of the research to a broader audience and engagement of these sectors in the decision-making processes are key, not only in LCC modeling, but in many aspects of environmental study.

Research Note PNW

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Note PNW by :

Download or read book Research Note PNW written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling

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Author :
Publisher : CreateSpace
ISBN 13 : 9781511614191
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (141 download)

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Book Synopsis Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling by : United States Department of Agriculture

Download or read book Research Agenda for Integrated Landscape Modeling written by United States Department of Agriculture and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reliable predictions of how changing climate and disturbance regimes will affect forest ecosystems are crucial for effective forest management. Current fire and climate research in forest ecosystem and community ecology offers data and methods that can inform such predictions. However, research in these fields occurs at different scales, with disparate goals, methods, and context. Often results are not readily comparable among studies and defy integration. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of three modeling paradigms: empirical gradient models, mechanistic ecosystem models, and stochastic landscape disturbance models. We then propose a synthetic approach to multi-scale analysis of the effects of climatic change and disturbance on forest ecosystems. Empirical gradient models provide an anchor and spatial template for stand-level forest ecosystem models by quantifying key parameters for individual species and accounting for broad-scale geographic variation among them. Gradient imputation transfers predictions of fine-scale forest composition and structure across geographic space. Mechanistic ecosystem dynamic models predict the responses of biological variables to specific environmental drivers and facilitate understanding of temporal dynamics and disequilibrium. Stochastic landscape dynamics models predict frequency, extent, and severity of broad-scale disturbance. A robust linkage of these three modeling paradigms will facilitate prediction of the effects of altered fire and other disturbance regimes on forest ecosystems at multiple scales and in the context of climatic variability and change.