Managing Global Growth Risks And Commodity Price Shocks

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Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks

Author : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475596944
Total Pages : 86 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks by : Ms.Stefania Fabrizio

Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks written by Ms.Stefania Fabrizio and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-20 with total page 86 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498338453
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks - Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-21 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first Vulnerability Exercise for LICs (VE-LIC) conducted by IMF staff using this new framework. The report focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks, and discusses related policy challenges. The report is organized as follows: Chapter I reviews recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices earlier this year. Chapter II assesses current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect LICs. Chapter III discusses policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816662
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475507038
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Author : Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151357227X
Total Pages : 41 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr.Aasim M. Husain

Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr.Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498343074
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - Staff Background Studies written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-30 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL

Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries

Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616353791
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries by : Mr.Rabah Arezki

Download or read book Commodity Price Volatility and Inclusive Growth in Low-Income Countries written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-24 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the years following the global financial crisis, many low-income countries experienced rapid recovery and strong economic growth. However, many are now facing enormous difficulties because of rapidly rising food and fuel prices, with the threat of millions of people being pushed into poverty around the globe. The risk of continued food price volatility is a systemic challenge, and a failure in one country has been shown to have a profound impact on entire regions. This volume addresses the challenges of commodity price volatility for low-income countries and explores some macroeconomic policy options for responding to commodity price shocks. The book then looks at inclusive growth policies to address inequality in commodity-exporting countries, particularly natural resource rich countries. Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, emerging Asia, and Mexico are presented and, finally, the role of the international donor community is examined. This volume is a must read for policymakers everywhere, from those in advanced, donor countries to those in countries with the poorest and most vulnerable populations.

Handbook on Food

Author : Raghbendra Jha
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781004293
Total Pages : 565 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook on Food by : Raghbendra Jha

Download or read book Handbook on Food written by Raghbendra Jha and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-01-01 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: 'This volume is a welcome and timely contribution to a topic of enduring importance. The global consequences of recent food price crises underscore the need to examine food security issues from diverse perspectives. This volume meets that need, featuring accessible yet cutting-edge analyses of food security by leading experts in fields as diverse as trade, nutrition, public health, production, political economy, and behavioral economics. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars and practitioners.' --Steven Block, Tufts University, US. 'This excellent volume offers a compact but wide-ranging survey of recent research on important changes in global food markets. Its 20 chapters accurately capture important areas of scholarly agreement as well as on-going debates among economists studying agriculture and nutrition, with several provocative original contributions from other fields. The book draws particularly on the authors' long experience in Asia, offering widely-applicable insights for scholars and policy analysts seeking to understand the past, present and future of food around the world.' --William A. Masters, Tufts University, US. The global population is forecasted to reach 9.4 billion by 2050, with much of this increase concentrated in developing regions and cities. Ensuring adequate food and nourishment to this large population is a pressing economic, moral and even security challenge and requires research (and action) from a multi-disciplinary perspective. This book provides the first such integrated approach to tackling this problem by addressing the multiplicity of challenges posed by rising global population, diet diversification and urbanization in developing countries and climate change. It examines key topics such as: the impact of prosperity on food demand, the role of international trade in addressing food insecurity, the challenge posed by greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land degradation, the implication on labor markets of severe under-nutrition, viability of small scale farms, strategies to augment food availability. The Handbook on Food would be a welcome supplementary text for courses on development economics, particularly those concentrating on agricultural development, climate change and food availability, as well as nutrition.

On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks

Author : Rafael Portillo
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498304354
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks by : Rafael Portillo

Download or read book On the First-Round Effects of International Food Price Shocks written by Rafael Portillo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-02-23 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomplete markets, and financial autarky). First-round effects depend crucially on the asset market structure and the different transmission mechanisms they trigger. Under complete markets, inter-temporal substitution prevails, making the inflationary impact of international food prices proportional to the food share in consumption, which in developing economies is typically large. Under financial autarky, the income channel is dominant, and first-round effects are instead proportional to the country's food balance—the difference between the country's food endowment and its consumption—which in developing countries is typically small. The latter result holds regardless of the degree of food tradability. Incomplete markets yield a combination of the two extremes. Our results cast some doubt on the view that international food price shocks are inherently inflationary in developing countries.

2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report

Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498341330
Total Pages : 56 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis 2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Download or read book 2013 Low-Income Countries Global Risks and Vulnerabilities Report written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-09-13 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An assessment of vulnerabilities and risks in LICs remains important both for LICs themselves and for the international community. There are currently 74 LICs, eligible for concessional financing from the Fund. This group of countries has a total population of about 1.3 billion, with an average per capita income of around $850. They typically face the steepest challenges in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and are increasingly the focus of global development assistance to assist them in this endeavor. This report serves several purposes. It provides a cross-cutting analysis of the economic vulnerabilities of LICs, yielding some general policy conclusions and messages aimed at strengthening their resilience to external shocks. It delivers a richer coverage of developments in LICs than is typically contained in the major IMF multilateral surveillance reports, where analysis is focused primarily on developments in the advanced and emerging market economies. The report serves as an effective outreach tool to country authorities and the wider public. Finally, it provides useful information to other international financial institutions (IFIs) and donors that provide financial resources to LICs on the potential financing needs of these countries under varying global scenarios.

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Author : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484367820
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt

Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.

Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498338321
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?

Global Monitoring Report 2012

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 0821395238
Total Pages : 191 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (213 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Monitoring Report 2012 by : World Bank

Download or read book Global Monitoring Report 2012 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-04-24 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year's report summarizes the short- and long-term impact of food prices on several MDGs, explores future trends, and review policy responses, from domestic policies such as social safety nets, nutritional programs and agricultural policies, to regional trade policies to support by the international community.

World Economic Outlook, September 2011

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781616351199
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (511 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, September 2011 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, September 2011 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures.

Helping Developing Countries Address Public Debt Management Challenges - An IMF-World Bank Capacity Building Partnership

Author : World Bank
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498342159
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Helping Developing Countries Address Public Debt Management Challenges - An IMF-World Bank Capacity Building Partnership by : World Bank

Download or read book Helping Developing Countries Address Public Debt Management Challenges - An IMF-World Bank Capacity Building Partnership written by World Bank and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-03 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In 2009, the Boards of the IMF and World Bank jointly endorsed a capacity building program to help developing countries strengthen their public debt management frameworks. A key aspect of the program was to help developing countries implement the framework developed by staffs to formulate an effective medium-term debt management strategy (MTDS). The Boards also supported the continued use of the complementary framework—the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA)—developed in 2007, to assess the effectiveness of the broader institutional arrangements for public debt management. This paper provides an update on the implementation of the program since its endorsement in 2009.

World Economic Outlook, April 2012

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1616352469
Total Pages : 299 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (163 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Global Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries

Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149833976X
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

Download or read book Global Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Policy Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-10 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The rapid recovery in many low-income countries (LICs) following the global crisis has been sustained in 2012. Softening commodity prices have led to moderating inflation pressures in most LICs. However, progress in rebuilding policy buffers has halted over the past two years, despite continued strong growth in LICs.