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Macro Level Analysis Of Safety Planning And Crash Prediction Models
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Book Synopsis Macro-Level Analysis of Safety Planning and Crash Prediction Models by :
Download or read book Macro-Level Analysis of Safety Planning and Crash Prediction Models written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) is a tool that helps transportation agencies make data-driven decisions about safety. It includes methods for quantifying safety performance and predicting crash frequencies. The HSM is currently being updated to include macro-level crash prediction models, which can be used to assess safety trends at a regional or national level. NCHRP Web-Only Document 348: Macro-Level Analysis of Safety Planning and Crash Prediction Models: A Guide, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, provides guidance on how to use a spreadsheet tool developed during this project. The document is supplemental to NCHRP Research Report 1044: Development and Application of Quantitative Macro-Level Safety Prediction Models.
Book Synopsis Applications of Machine Learning Methods in Macroscopic Crash Analysis for Transportation Safety Management by : Somaye Garmroudi Dovirani
Download or read book Applications of Machine Learning Methods in Macroscopic Crash Analysis for Transportation Safety Management written by Somaye Garmroudi Dovirani and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Transportation Safety Planning (TSP) is a statewide-scale tool and combines transportation planning processes with safety aims to increase safety and reduce transportation fatalities and injuries. Traffic safety, which continues to remain a critical issue worldwide, has led to a myriad of modeling techniques to improve analytical capabilities with respect to crash modeling and prediction. State and metropolitan transportation planning processes must be consistent with Strategic Highway Safety Plans. This research aims to identify models and methods to improve the ability to capture variables that have the most significant impact on traffic safety through crash prediction modeling. In order to achieve this research goal, the research objectives are as follows: Identify important variables in TSP. Investigate different areal unit such as traffic analysis zones (TAZs) and traffic analysis districts (TADs). Explore the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP), which addresses crashes on the boundaries and autocorrelation in macro-level crash modeling. Analysis of before and after crashes and testing Poisson distribution This research explores the application of parametric and nonparametric approaches to use different models for prediction and inference, with the aim of minimizing the reducible error. Since a macro-level analysis involves aggregating crashes per spatial unit, a spatial dependence or autocorrelation may arise if a variable of a geographic region is affected by the same variable of the neighboring regions. So, this study also will explore the effect of spatial autocorrelation in modeling crashes in TAZs and TADs.
Book Synopsis Two Level Approach to Safety Planning Incorporating the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Network Screening by : Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty
Download or read book Two Level Approach to Safety Planning Incorporating the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Network Screening written by Mohamed A. Abdel-Aty and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Compared to microscopic safety studies, macroscopic-focused research is more efficient at integrating zonal-level features into crash prediction models and identifying hot zones. However, macroscopic screening has accuracy limitations. Thus, this study developed a new integrated screening approach to overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings of current screening techniques and to achieve a balance between efforts towards accuracy and efficiency. For conducting macro level safety analyses, the research team faced several challenges. First, using current Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) as basic geographic units caused a high percentage of boundary crashes. The research team used regionalization to develop a new study unit: Traffic Safety Analysis Zones (TSAZs) systems. Approximately 10% of boundary crashes have been integrated in new zones after the regionalization but more than 60% of crashes still occur on the boundary of TSAZs. Hence, a nested structure was proposed to estimate safety performance models separately for boundary and interior crashes. This nested structure allows different contributing factors for different crash types, so this model can provide more accurate and predictable results than a single model. In addition, a Bayesian Poisson Lognormal Spatial Error Model (BPLSEM) was adopted for the Safety Performance Function (SPF) analysis. The BPLSEM contains a spatial error term that control for the spatial autocorrelation of crash data. As for the micro level analysis, the research team developed SPFs based on the major function classes of roads in the study area. The research team still used the Full Bayesian Poisson Lognormal models to predict crash frequency but tried four different variable combinations to identify the best model. After identifying hot spot areas at the macro- and microscopic levels, the research team integrated these macroscopic and microscopic screening results. However, this integration task was challenging because of the necessity to (1) combine various SPFs from different scales, areas, and roadway types; (2) determine an appropriate weight for each group; and (3) choose a measurement for the final results. In order to solve the above mentioned problems, this study then developed a new criterion to identify whether a zone has safety issues at the macro- and/or microscopic levels. All TSAZs were classified into twelve categories that included two scale groups (macro or micro) and four safety levels (hot, normal, cold, or no data). Then, the research team defined weights for different scales and roadway types. At the macroscopic level, TSAZs were ranked by their zonal Potential for Safety Improvements (PSIs); at the microscopic level, the calculation of average PSI was more complicated because each TSAZ had several intersections and segments. Both the intersection and segment PSI ranks were averaged. The PSI is used in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) for network screening but it is the first time that it is used for zonal screening. TSAZs with top 10% PSIs were categorized as “Hot” zones. Finally, the percentile ranks of the PSIs were used in the integration (instead of the original PSIs) because the units of PSI intersections and PSI segments were different. In summary, this study presents an integrated screening method that can be used to overcome the shortcomings of macro- and micro-level approaches. In particular, the results provide a comprehensive perspective on appropriate safety treatments by balancing the accuracy and efficiency of screening. Also, it is recommended that different strategies for each hot zone classification be developed because each category has distinctive traffic safety risks at each of the different levels.
Book Synopsis Macroscopic Traffic Safety Analysis Based on Trip Generation Characteristics by : Chowdhury Kawsar Arefin Siddiqui
Download or read book Macroscopic Traffic Safety Analysis Based on Trip Generation Characteristics written by Chowdhury Kawsar Arefin Siddiqui and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent research has shown that incorporating roadway safety in transportation planning has been considered one of the active approaches to improve safety. Aggregate level analysis for predicting crash frequencies had been contemplated to be an important step in this process. As seen from the previous studies various categories of predictors at macro level (census blocks, traffic analysis zones, census tracts, wards, counties and states) have been exhausted to find appropriate correlation with crashes. This study contributes to this ongoing macro level road safety research by investigating various trip productions and attractions along with roadway characteristics within traffic analysis zones (TAZs) of four counties in the state of Florida. Crashes occurring in one thousand three hundred and forty-nine TAZs in Hillsborough, Citrus, Pasco, and Hernando counties during the years 2005 and 2006 were examined in this study. Selected counties were representative from both urban and rural environments. To understand the prevalence of various trip attraction and production rates per TAZ the Euclidian distances between the centroid of a TAZ containing a particular crash and the centroid of the ZIP area containing the at fault driver's home address for that particular crash was calculated. It was found that almost all crashes in Hernando and Citrus County for the years 2005-2006 took place in about 27 miles radius centering at the at-fault drivers' home. Also about sixty-two percent of crashes occurred approximately at a distance of between 2 and 10 miles from the homes of drivers who were at fault in those crashes. These results gave an indication that home based trips may be more associated with crashes and later trip related model estimates which were found significant at 95% confidence level complied with this hypothesized idea. Previous aggregate level road safety studies widely addressed negative binomial distribution of crashes. Properties like non-negative integer counts, non-normal distribution, over-dispersion in the data have increased suitability of applying the negative binomial technique and has been selected to build crash prediction models in this research. Four response variables which were aggregated at TAZ-level were total number of crashes, severe (fatal and severe injury) crashes, total crashes during peak hours, and pedestrian and bicycle related crashes. For each response separate models were estimated using four different sets of predictors which are i) various trip variables, ii) total trip production and total trip attraction, iii) road characteristics, and iv) finally considering all predictors into the model. It was found that the total crash model and peak hour crash model were best estimated by the total trip productions and total trip attractions. On the basis of log-likelihoods, deviance value/degree of freedom, and Pearson Chi-square value/degree of freedom, the severe crash model was best fit by the trip related variables only and pedestrian and bicycle related crash model was best fit by the road related variables only. The significant trip related variables in the severe crash models were home-based work attractions, home-based shop attractions, light truck productions, heavy truck productions, and external-internal attractions. Only two variables- sum of roadway segment lengths with 35 mph speed limit and number of intersections per TAZ were found significant for pedestrian and bicycle related crash model developed using road characteristics only. The 1349 TAZs were grouped into three different clusters based on the quartile distribution of the trip generations and were termed as less-tripped, moderately-tripped, and highly-tripped TAZs. It was hypothesized that separate models developed for these clusters would provide a better fit as the clustering process increases the homogeneity within a cluster. The cluster models were re-run using the significant predictors attained from the joint models and were compared with the previous sets of models. However, the differences in the model fits (in terms of Alkaike's Information Criterion values) were not significant. This study points to different approaches when predicting crashes at the zonal level. This research is thought to add to the literature on macro level crash modeling research by considering various trip related data into account as previous studies in zone level safety have not explicitly considered trip data as explanatory covariates.
Book Synopsis Transferability of Community-based Macro-level Collision Prediction Models for Use in Road Safety Planning Applications by : Bidoura Khondaker
Download or read book Transferability of Community-based Macro-level Collision Prediction Models for Use in Road Safety Planning Applications written by Bidoura Khondaker and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Macroscopic Crash Analysis and Its Implications for Transportation Safety Planning by : Chowdhury Kawsar Arefin Siddiqui
Download or read book Macroscopic Crash Analysis and Its Implications for Transportation Safety Planning written by Chowdhury Kawsar Arefin Siddiqui and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Metropolitan planning organizations widely use TAZs in developing their long range transportation plans (LRTPs). Therefore, considering the practical application it was concluded that as a geographical unit, TAZs had a relative ascendancy over block group and census tract. Once TAZs were selected as the base spatial unit of the TSP framework, careful inspections on the TAZ delineations were performed. Traffic analysis zones are often delineated by the existing street network. This may result in considerable number of crashes on or near zonal boundaries. While the traditional macro-level crash modeling approach assigns zonal attributes to all crashes that occur within the zonal boundary, this research acknowledged the inaccuracy resulting from relating crashes on or near the boundary of the zone to merely the attributes of that zone. A novel approach was proposed to account for the spatial influence of the neighboring zones on crashes which specifically occur on or near the zonal boundaries. Predictive model for pedestrian crashes per zone were developed using a hierarchical Bayesian framework and utilized separate predictor sets for boundary and interior (non-boundary) crashes. It was found that these models (that account for boundary and interior crashes separately) had better goodness-of-fit measures compared to the models which had no specific consideration for crashes located at/near the zone boundaries. Additionally, the models were able to capture some unique predictors associated explicitly with interior and boundary-related crashes. For example, the variables- 'total roadway length with 35mph posted speed limit' and 'long term parking cost' were statistically not significantly different from zero in the interior crash model but they were significantly different from zero at the 95% level in the boundary crash model. Although an adjacent traffic analysis zones (a single layer) were defined for pedestrian crashes and boundary pedestrian crashes were modeled based on the characteristic factors of these adjacent zones, this was not considered reasonable for bicycle-related crashes as the average roaming area of bicyclists are usually greater than that of pedestrians. For smaller TAZs sometimes it is possible for a bicyclist to cross the entire TAZ. To account for this greater area of coverage, boundary bicycle crashes were modeled based on two layers of adjacent zones. As observed from the goodness-of-fit measures, performances of model considering single layer variables and model considering two layer variables were superior from the models that did not consider layering at all; but these models were comparable. Motor vehicle crashes (total and severe crashes) were classified as 'on-system' and 'off-system' crashes and two sub-models were fitted in order to calibrate the safety performance function for these crashes. On-system and off-system roads refer to two different roadway hierarchies. On-system or state maintained roads typically possess higher speed limit and carries traffic from distant TAZs. Off-system roads are, however, mostly local roads with relatively low speed limits. Due to these distinct characteristics, on-system crashes were modeled with only population and total employment variables of a zone in addition to the roadway and traffic variables; and all other zonal variables were disregarded. For off-system crashes, on contrary, all zonal variables was considered. It was evident by comparing this on- and off-system sub-model-framework to the other candidate models that it provided superior goodness-of-fit for both total and severe crashes. Based on the safety performance functions developed for pedestrian, bicycle, total and severe crashes, the study proposed a novel and complete framework for assessing safety (of these crash types) simultaneously in parallel with the four-step transportation planning process with no need of any additional data requirements from the practitioners' side.
Book Synopsis Safety Data, Analysis, and Modeling by :
Download or read book Safety Data, Analysis, and Modeling written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: TRB's Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2083 includes 22 papers that explore data-driven perspective on safety risk management, macrolevel annual safety performance measures, tool with road-level crash prediction for safety planning, congestion and number of lanes on urban freeways relationship to safety, accident modification factors, identifying hazardous road locations, identifying hot spots, and safety influence area for four-legged signalized intersections. This issue of the TRR also examines automated analysis of accident exposure, new simulation-based surrogate safety measure, hit-and-run crashes, speed limit increases' effect on injury severity, safety of curbs, proximity to intersections and injury severity of urban arterial crashes, nested logit model of traffic flow on freeway ramps, intelligent transportation system data for assessing freeway safety, vehicle time spent in following on two-lane rural roads, indirect associations in crash data, crash prediction models for rural highways, and methodology for identifying causal factors of accident severity.
Book Synopsis Statistical Methods and Crash Prediction Modeling by :
Download or read book Statistical Methods and Crash Prediction Modeling written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 91 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Encyclopedia of Transportation by :
Download or read book International Encyclopedia of Transportation written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2021-05-13 with total page 4418 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an increasingly globalised world, despite reductions in costs and time, transportation has become even more important as a facilitator of economic and human interaction; this is reflected in technical advances in transportation systems, increasing interest in how transportation interacts with society and the need to provide novel approaches to understanding its impacts. This has become particularly acute with the impact that Covid-19 has had on transportation across the world, at local, national and international levels. Encyclopedia of Transportation, Seven Volume Set - containing almost 600 articles - brings a cross-cutting and integrated approach to all aspects of transportation from a variety of interdisciplinary fields including engineering, operations research, economics, geography and sociology in order to understand the changes taking place. Emphasising the interaction between these different aspects of research, it offers new solutions to modern-day problems related to transportation. Each of its nine sections is based around familiar themes, but brings together the views of experts from different disciplinary perspectives. Each section is edited by a subject expert who has commissioned articles from a range of authors representing different disciplines, different parts of the world and different social perspectives. The nine sections are structured around the following themes: Transport Modes; Freight Transport and Logistics; Transport Safety and Security; Transport Economics; Traffic Management; Transport Modelling and Data Management; Transport Policy and Planning; Transport Psychology; Sustainability and Health Issues in Transportation. Some articles provide a technical introduction to a topic whilst others provide a bridge between topics or a more future-oriented view of new research areas or challenges. The end result is a reference work that offers researchers and practitioners new approaches, new ways of thinking and novel solutions to problems. All-encompassing and expertly authored, this outstanding reference work will be essential reading for all students and researchers interested in transportation and its global impact in what is a very uncertain world. Provides a forward looking and integrated approach to transportation Updated with future technological impacts, such as self-driving vehicles, cyber-physical systems and big data analytics Includes comprehensive coverage Presents a worldwide approach, including sets of comparative studies and applications
Book Synopsis A Macro-level Analysis of Safety Data Using Geospatial Techniques and Spatial Econometric Methods and Models by : Samwel Oyier Zephaniah
Download or read book A Macro-level Analysis of Safety Data Using Geospatial Techniques and Spatial Econometric Methods and Models written by Samwel Oyier Zephaniah and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motor vehicle accidents are a source of many preventable injuries and deaths, worldwide. Several statistical and econometric models have been developed to predict and explain crash events. Research indicate that 93% of traffic accidents are due to human error. The objective of this research is twofold - first, to develop a macro level safety planning framework by identifying socioeconomic factors that influence crash frequencies and second, to characterize traffic congestion attributed to a crash events. To this effect, a Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) model, a suite of Spatial Econometric models and a Mixed Logit model were estimated. Data used included crash records from 2009 to 2013 in Alabama comprising 647,477 crash events. These included 4,814 crashes on Interstate 65 and 21,818 crashes related to Driving Under the Influence (DUI). Other data comprised socioeconomic data from US census, weather data, traffic data, spatial data from ESRI and crowd sourced speed data. Results indicate that DUI crash rates and frequencies at postal code level are predominantly influenced by rate of employment, income, population density, level of education, household size and housing characteristics. In addition, level of congestion attributed to a crash depends on factors including traffic volume, speed, weather, time of the event, severity of the crash, presence of physical barrier separating opposing traffic lanes, work zone, percent of heavy trucks and whether the crash occurred in an urban area or rural area. These results are unequivocal regarding the importance of geographic variation and heterogeneity in driver behavior and the general road safety.
Book Synopsis Development and Application of Crash Severity Models for Highway Safety by :
Download or read book Development and Application of Crash Severity Models for Highway Safety written by and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first edition of the Highway Safety Manual has provided methods and procedures for estimating total crashes, crashes by type, and crashes by severity at the site level, project level and corridor level. Crash prediction models are critical in the entire safety management system recommended by HSM, including network screening, economic analysis, project prioritization, and safety effectiveness evaluation. NCHRP Web-Only Document 351: Development and Application of Crash Severity Models for Highway Safety: Conduct of Research Report, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, is supplemental to NCHRP Research Report 1047: Development and Application of Crash Severity Models for Highway Safety: User Guidelines. The document seeks to identify gaps and opportunities in the current severity prediction/estimation procedures within the HSM, to develop and validate new severity models to address the gaps and opportunities, and to develop a guidance document that includes protocols for the use and application of severity-based models in a format suitable for possible adoption in the HSM.
Book Synopsis Dialogues in Urban and Regional Planning by : Michael Hibbard
Download or read book Dialogues in Urban and Regional Planning written by Michael Hibbard and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-29 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dialogues in Urban and Regional Planning 5 is a selection of some of the best scholarship in urban and regional planning from around the world. The internationally recognized authors of these award-winning papers take up a range of salient issues from the theory and practice of planning. The topics they address include the effects of globalization on world cities, metropolitan planning in France and Australia, and new research in pedestrian and traffic design. The breadth of the topics covered in this book will appeal to all those with an interest in urban and regional planning, providing a springboard for further debate and research. The papers focus particularly on themes of inclusion, urban transformation, metropolitan planning, and urban design. The Dialogues in Urban and Regional Planning (DURP) book series is published in association with the Global Planning Education Association Network (GPEAN) and its member national and transnational planning schools associations.
Book Synopsis Freeway Crash Prediction Models for Long-range Urban Transportation Planning by : Vasin Kiattikomol
Download or read book Freeway Crash Prediction Models for Long-range Urban Transportation Planning written by Vasin Kiattikomol and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Task Force for Roadside Safety Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :560 pages Book Rating :4.0/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis Roadside Design Guide by : American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Task Force for Roadside Safety
Download or read book Roadside Design Guide written by American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. Task Force for Roadside Safety and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 560 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Development of Crash Prediction Models for Transportation Planning Analysis by :
Download or read book Development of Crash Prediction Models for Transportation Planning Analysis written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modeling Multilevel Data in Traffic Safety by : Hoong Chor Chin
Download or read book Modeling Multilevel Data in Traffic Safety written by Hoong Chor Chin and published by Nova Science Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Background: In the study of traffic system safety, statistical models have been broadly applied to establish the relationships between the traffic crash occurrence and various risk factors. Most of the existing methods, such as the generalised linear regression models, assume that each observation (e.g. a crash or a vehicle involvement) in the estimation procedure corresponds to an individual situation. Hence, the residuals from the models exhibit independence. Problem: However, this "independence" assumption may often not hold true since multilevel data structures exist extensively because of the data collection and clustering process. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations may lead to production of models with unreliable parameter estimates and statistical inferences. Method: Following a literature review of crash prediction models, this book proposes a 5 T-level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level -- Traffic site level -- Traffic crash level -- Driver-vehicle unit level -- Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To model properly the potential between-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is employed. Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is developed to calibrate the proposed hierarchical models. Two Bayesian measures, viz. the Deviance Information Criterion and Cross-Validation Predictive Densities, are adapted to establish the model suitability. Illustrations: The proposed method is illustrated using two case studies in Singapore: 1) a crash-frequency prediction model which takes into account Traffic site level and Time level; 2) a crash-severity prediction model which takes into account Traffic crash level and Driver-vehicle unit level. Conclusion: Comparing the predictive abilities of the proposed models against those of traditional methods, the study demonstrates the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and illustrates the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical approach in modelling multilevel structure of traffic safety data.
Book Synopsis Improved Prediction Models for Crash Types and Crash Severities by :
Download or read book Improved Prediction Models for Crash Types and Crash Severities written by and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The release of the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 2010 was a landmark event in the practice of road safety analysis. Before it, the United States had no central repository for information about quantitative road safety analysis methodology. The TRB National Cooperative Highway Research Program's NCHRP Web-Only Document 295: Improved Prediction Models for Crash Types and Crash Severities describes efforts to develop improved crash prediction methods for crash type and severity for the three facility types covered in the HSM—specifically, two‐lane rural highways, multilane rural highways, and urban/suburban arterials. Supplemental materials to the Web-Only Document include Appendices A, B, and C (Average Condition Models, Crash Severities – Ordered Probit Fractional Split Modeling Approach, and Draft Content for Highway Safety Manual, 2nd Edition).
