Macro Financial Linkages And Heterogeneous Non Performing Loans Projections

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Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections

Author : Francesco Grigoli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475559380
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections by : Francesco Grigoli

Download or read book Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-07 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a stress testing framework of credit risk, which analyzes macro-financial linkages, generate consistent forecasts of macro-financial variables, and projects NPL on the basis of such forecasts. Economic contractions are generally associated with increases in non-performing loans (NPL). However, despite the common assumption used in the empirical literature of homogenous impact across banks, the strength of this relationship is often bank-specific, and imposing homogeneity may lead to over or underestimating the resilience of the financial system to macroeconomic woes. Our approach accounts for banks’ heterogeneous reaction to macro-financial shocks in a dynamic context and potential cross-sectional dependence across banks caused by common shocks. An application to Ecuador suggests that substantial heterogeneity is present and that this should be taken into account when trying to anticipate inflections in the quality of portfolio.

Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects

Author : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455208892
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects by : Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

Download or read book Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects written by Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-10-01 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.

Economic Recovery After COVID-19

Author : Alina Mihaela Dima
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030866416
Total Pages : 325 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (38 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Recovery After COVID-19 by : Alina Mihaela Dima

Download or read book Economic Recovery After COVID-19 written by Alina Mihaela Dima and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-11-30 with total page 325 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These proceedings constitute a selection of best papers from the 3rd International Conference on Economics and Social Sciences, Innovative Models to Revive the Global Economy, ICESS 2020, held in Bucharest, Romania, in October 2020. This book is a collection of research findings and perspectives related to recent economic challenges determined by the global crisis due to COVID 19, led by the set of improvements and changes in the economic, societal, and technological structures and processes towards the effort of reaching the sustainability goals. During a crisis, countries, and businesses must respond promptly to ensure survival. They need to rethink social contracts, redefine work and consumption, mobilize resources at speed and scale, and at the same time rethink patterns from global to local. The innovative models presented in this book aim to ensure simultaneous economic development, social development, and environmental protection, to achieve a higher quality of life for all people, and protect all living beings and the planet.

Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475575394
Total Pages : 155 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Regional Economic Outlook, April 2017, Western Hemisphere Department written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-19 with total page 155 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the global economy gaining some momentum, economies of Latin America and the Caribbean are recovering from a recession at the regional level in 2016. This gradual improvement can be understood as tale of two adjustments, external and fiscal, that are ongoing in response to earlier shocks. But headwinds from commodity terms-of-trade shocks and country-specific domestic factors are fading, paving the way for real GDP to grow by about 1 percent in 2017. Regional activity is expected to pick up further momentum in 2018, but at a slower pace than previously anticipated, while medium-term growth is projected to remain modest at about 2.6 percent. The outlook is shaped by key shifts in the global economic and policy landscape—where slow growth, low productivity, and high income inequality are creating pressure for a shift toward inward- looking policies in some advanced economies. Domestic fundamentals and developments, however, will continue to play a significant role in determining growth for the region. At the same time, risks to the outlook have widened in a setting of higher global uncertainty. In this challenging external context, countries should aim for completing fiscal and external adjustments to preserve or rebuild policy buffers. Charting a course toward higher, sustainable, and more equitable growth will also require strengthening structural reforms. Specifically, closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business environment, governance, and education outcomes, and encouraging female labor participation are necessary to boost medium-term growth and foster income convergence. Chapters in this report examine the ongoing external adjustment to terms-of-trade shifts, drivers of capital flows to the region, the role of the investor base, and macroeconomic impact of migration and remittances.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475567081
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-12-30 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.

Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies

Author : Asian Development Bank
Publisher : Asian Development Bank
ISBN 13 : 9292691163
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (926 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies by : Asian Development Bank

Download or read book Nonperforming Loans in Asia and Europe—Causes, Impacts, and Resolution Strategies written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High and persistent levels of nonperforming loans (NPLs) have featured prominently in recent financial crises. This book traces NPL trends during and after crises, examines the economic impact of high NPLs, and compares the effectiveness of NPL resolution strategies across economies in Asia and Europe. The book distills important lessons from the experiences of economies using case studies and empirical investigation of ways to resolve NPLs. These findings can be invaluable in charting a course through the financial and economic fallout of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic to recovery and sustained financial stability in Asia, Europe, and beyond.

Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks

Author : Cheikh A. Gueye
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498317790
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks by : Cheikh A. Gueye

Download or read book Coping with Falling Oil Prices: The Different Fortunes of African Banks written by Cheikh A. Gueye and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-06-17 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the impact of declining oil prices on banks in sub-Saharan African oil-exporting countries. Results indicate that banks respond differently to an oil shock depending on their ownership: (i) domestic banks are the most adversely impacted and experience a deterioration in asset quality and liquidity; (ii) foreign-owned banks are the most resilient as they are able to improve asset quality and attract deposits but at the same time, they decelerate credit growth; in contrast, (iii) Pan-African Banks help stabilize overall credit but large banks in that segment experience reduced asset quality. These differentiated results suggest a tradeoff between maintaining credit growth and safeguarding financial stability in an oil slump which could be addressed by both micro- and macroprudential policies.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt

Author : Inessa Love
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148433907X
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt by : Inessa Love

Download or read book Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt written by Inessa Love and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-30 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates macro-financial linkages in Egypt using two complementary methods, assessing the interaction between different macroeconomic aggregates and loan portfolio quality in a multivariate framework as well as through a panel vector autoregressive method that controls for bank-level characteristics. Using a panel of banks over 1993-2010, the authors find that a positive shock to capital inflows and growth in gross domestic product improves banks’ loan portfolio quality, and that the effect is fairly similar in magnitude using the multivariate and panel vector autoregressive frameworks. In contrast, higher lending rates may lead to adverse selection problems and hence to a drop in portfolio quality. The paper also reports that a larger market share of foreign banks in the industry improves loan quality.

Ecuador

Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498303684
Total Pages : 69 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Ecuador by : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Download or read book Ecuador written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-21 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.

Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets

Author : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484361490
Total Pages : 53 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets by : International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Download or read book Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets written by International Monetary Fund. African Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-23 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets

Author : Mr.Reinout De Bock
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475592302
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets by : Mr.Reinout De Bock

Download or read book Bank Asset Quality in Emerging Markets written by Mr.Reinout De Bock and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-03-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating capital inflows reduce credit growth while loan quality deteriorates. Particularly noteworthy is the sharp deterioration of balance sheets following a reversal of portfolio inflows. We also find evidence of feedback effects from the financial sector on the wider economy. GDP growth falls after shocks that drive non-performing loans higher or generate a contraction in credit. This analysis was used in chapter 1 of the Global Financial Stability Report (September 2011) to help evaluate the sensitivity of banks' capital adequacy ratios to macroeconomic and funding cost shocks.

Global Waves of Debt

Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose

Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Sweden

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475554613
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Sweden by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Sweden written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-11-17 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses the findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment for Sweden. The Swedish financial system is large and highly interconnected, putting a premium on the accompanying policy framework. Relative to the size of the domestic economy, the financial system is among Europe’s largest. It features complex domestic and international linkages, reflecting Sweden’s role as a regional financial hub. However, the macrofinancial risks have grown since 2011, for example the rising share of highly indebted households. Stress tests also suggest that banks and nonbanks are largely resilient to solvency shocks, but concerns persist about the ability of bank models to capture unexpected losses.

Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498342620
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries

Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt

Author : Inessa Love
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484338316
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Financial Linkages in Egypt by : Inessa Love

Stress Testing at the IMF

Author : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513520741
Total Pages : 73 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian

Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.