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Learning With Rare Disasters
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Book Synopsis Learning with Rare Disasters by : Jessica A. Wachter
Download or read book Learning with Rare Disasters written by Jessica A. Wachter and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial crises appear to have long-lasting effects, even after the crisis itself has past. This paper offers a simple explanation through Bayesian learning from rare events. Agents face a latent and time-varying probability of economic disaster. When a disaster occurs, learning results in greater effects on asset prices because agents update their probability of future disasters. Moreover, agents' belief that the disaster risk is high can rationally persist for years, even when it is in fact low. We generalize the model to allow for a noisy signal of the disaster probability. This generalized model explains excess stock market volatility together with negative skewness, effects that previous models in the literature struggle to explain.
Book Synopsis Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices by : Yang K. Lu
Download or read book Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices written by Yang K. Lu and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We incorporate joint learning about state and parameter into a consumption-based asset pricing model with rare disasters. Agents are uncertain whether a negative shock signals the onset of a disaster or how much long-term damage a disaster will cause and they update their beliefs over time. The interaction of state and parameter uncertainty increases the total amount of uncertainty and slows learning. Once the two types of uncertainty are both priced in asset prices, their joint effect enables our model to account for the level and volatility of U.S. equity returns without relying on exogenous variation in disaster risk or any realization of disaster shock in the data sample.
Book Synopsis Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices by : Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board
Download or read book Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices written by Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board and published by CreateSpace. This book was released on 2014-11-15 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this study, we examine how learning about disaster risk affects asset pricing in an endowment economy. We extend the literature on rare disasters by allowing for two sources of uncertainty: (1) the lack of historical data results in unknown parameters for the disaster process, and (2) the disaster takes time to unfold and is not directly observable. The model generates time variation in the risk premium through Bayesian updating of agents' beliefs regarding the likelihood and severity of disaster realization. The model accounts for the level and volatility of U.S. equity returns and generates predictability in returns.
Book Synopsis Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices by : Yang K. Lu
Download or read book Learning, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices written by Yang K. Lu and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asset Pricing Under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters by : Christos Koulovatianos
Download or read book Asset Pricing Under Rational Learning about Rare Disasters written by Christos Koulovatianos and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Learning and Calamities by : Heike Egner
Download or read book Learning and Calamities written by Heike Egner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-08-13 with total page 334 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely assumed that humanity should be able to learn from calamities (e.g., emergencies, disasters, catastrophes) and that the affected individuals, groups, and enterprises, as well as the concerned (disaster-) management organizations and institutions for prevention and mitigation, will be able to be better prepared or more efficient next time. Furthermore, it is often assumed that the results of these learning processes are preserved as "knowledge" in the collective memory of a society, and that patterns of practices were adopted on this base. Within history, there is more evidence for the opposite: Analyzing past calamities reveals that there is hardly any learning and, if so, that it rarely lasts more than one or two generations. This book explores whether learning in the context of calamities happens at all, and if learning takes place, under which conditions it can be achieved and what would be required to ensure that learned cognitive and practical knowledge will endure on a societal level. The contributions of this book include various fields of scientific research: history, sociology, geography, psychoanalysis, psychiatry, development studies and political studies, as well as disaster research and disaster risk reduction research.
Book Synopsis Learning from Disasters by : Brian Toft
Download or read book Learning from Disasters written by Brian Toft and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-27 with total page 145 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This compelling book offers an important insight into the way organizations implement policies and procedures to prevent future disasters occurring. The third edition includes an introductory chapter which demonstrates on a theoretical and practical level a number of reasons why individuals and groups of people fail to learn from disasters in the first place. Based on thorough research, Learning from Disasters is essential reading for all those involved in risk management, disaster planning and security and safety management.
Book Synopsis Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters by : World Bank
Download or read book Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2010-11-10 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines how to ensure that the preventive measures are worthwhile and effective, and how people can make decisions individually and collectively at different levels of government.
Book Synopsis Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement by : Neil Dufty
Download or read book Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement written by Neil Dufty and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-06-08 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A detailed guide to the design and evaluation of effective disaster learning programs Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement provides a much-needed evidence-based guide for designing effective disaster learning plans and programs that are tailored to local communities and their particular hazard risks. Drawing on the most recent research from disaster psychology, disaster sociology, and education psychology, as well as evaluations of disaster learning programs, the book contains practical guidance for putting in place a proven design framework. The book outlines the steps to take in order to tailor a disaster education, communication and engagement program and highlights illustrative examples of effective programs and activities from around the world. The author includes information on how to identify potential community learners and presents a methodology for understanding the at-risk community, its hazard risks, disaster risk reduction, and emergency management arrangements. Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement describes both country-wide campaigns and local disaster programs that involve community participation. This important resource: Presents a detailed framework to guide the design and evaluation of tailored disaster learning programs Includes information that links disaster resilience with sustainability and climate change learning Describes the ‘disaster cycle’ and reviews learning content and methods related to the cycle Explains effective ways to combine disaster education, disaster communications, and disaster-related engagement Contains material on using new technologies such as gamification, virtual reality, and social media Written for emergency managers, students of emergency management, and humanitarian courses, Disaster Education, Communication and Engagement is a hands-on guide filled with ideas and templates for designing and evaluating targeted disaster learning programs.
Book Synopsis After Great Disasters by : Laurie A. Johnson
Download or read book After Great Disasters written by Laurie A. Johnson and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Great natural disasters are rare, but their aftermath can change the fortunes of a city or region forever. This book and its companion Policy Focus Report identify lessons from different parts of the world to help communities and government leaders better organize for recovery after future disasters. The authors consider the processes and outcomes of community recovery and reconstruction following major disasters in six countries: China, New Zealand, India, Indonesia, Japan, and the United States. Post-disaster reconstruction offers opportunities to improve construction and design standards, renew infrastructure, create new land use arrangements, reinvent economies, and improve governance. If done well, reconstruction can help break the cycle of disaster-related impacts and losses, and improve the resilience of a city or region.
Book Synopsis Planning for Community-based Disaster Resilience Worldwide by : Adenrele Awotona
Download or read book Planning for Community-based Disaster Resilience Worldwide written by Adenrele Awotona and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2016-10-14 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We are witnessing an ever-increasing level and intensity of disasters from Ecuador to Ethiopia and beyond, devastating millions of ordinary lives and causing long-term misery for vulnerable populations. Bringing together 26 case studies from six continents, this volume provides a unique resource that discusses, in considerable depth, the multifaceted matrix of natural and human-made disasters. It examines their bearing on the loss of human and productive capital; the conduct of national policies and the setting of national development priorities; and on the nature of international aid and bilateral assistance strategies and programs of donor countries. In order to ensure the efficacy and appropriateness of their support for disaster survivors, international agencies, humanitarian and disaster relief organizations, scholars, non-governmental organizations, and members of the global emergency management community need to have insight into best practices and lessons learned from various disasters across national and cultural boundaries. The evidence obtained from the numerous case studies in this volume serves to build a worldwide community that is better informed about the cultural and traditional contexts of such disasters and better enabled to prepare for, respond to, and finally rebuild sustainable communities after disasters in different environments. The main themes of the case studies include: • the need for community planning and emergency management to unite in order to achieve the mutual aim of creating a sustainable disaster-resilient community, coupled with the necessity to enact and implement appropriate laws, policies, and development regulations for disaster risk reduction; • the need to develop a clear set of urban planning and urban design principles for improving the built environment’s capacities for disaster risk management through the integration of disaster risk reduction education into the curricula of colleges and universities; • the need to engage the whole community to build inclusive governance structures as prerequisites for addressing climate change vulnerability and fostering resilience and sustainability. Furthermore, the case studies explore the need to link the existence and value of scientific knowledge accumulated in various countries with decision-making in disaster risk management; and the relevance and transferability from one cultural context to another of the lessons learned in building institutional frameworks for whole community partnerships.
Book Synopsis Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management by : Satishkumar, D.
Download or read book Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management written by Satishkumar, D. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2024-04-29 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Acute events of natural origin, spanning atmospheric, biological, geophysical, hydrologic, and oceanographic realms, persistently menace societies globally. Approximately 160 million people annually bear the brunt of these disasters, with certain regions facing disproportionate impacts. The lack of predictability intensifies the challenge, creating intercommunal capacity gaps and amplifying the dire consequences. Utilizing AI and Machine Learning for Natural Disaster Management provides instances of ML in predicting earthquakes. By leveraging seismic data, AI systems can analyze magnitude and patterns, providing invaluable insights to forecast earthquake occurrences and aftershocks. Similarly, the book unveils the potential of ML in simulating floods by recording and analyzing rainfall patterns from previous years. The predictive power extends to hurricanes, where data on wind speed, rainfall, temperature, and moisture converge to anticipate future occurrences, potentially saving millions in property damage.
Author :Rajendra Kumar Bhandari Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :8132215664 Total Pages :368 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (322 download)
Book Synopsis Disaster Education and Management by : Rajendra Kumar Bhandari
Download or read book Disaster Education and Management written by Rajendra Kumar Bhandari and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book is expressly written for the young minds because they are our best hope for a safer tomorrow. The book is profusely illustrated, as it offers a joyride to the world of the whole range of hazards through simplified teaching-learning process, with less of teaching and more of learning. This is because most readers would love to learn without actually being taught. The book is designed to take advantage of distilled wisdom of centuries to inspire and enlighten the common man to turn them into prime movers of safer societies. Senior citizens, community leaders, self-trained disaster managers, social workers, media personnel, bureaucrats and those averse to the very thought of reading will also find the book useful as it is illustrative and inviting.
Book Synopsis Disasters and Economic Recovery by : Davia C. Downey
Download or read book Disasters and Economic Recovery written by Davia C. Downey and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2021-07-05 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Disasters and Economic Recovery provides perspectives on the economic issues that emerge before, during, and after natural disasters in an international context, by assessing the economic development patterns that emerge before and after disaster. This book will provide a historical overview of emergency management policy and previous responses to disasters in each country, as well as the policy learning that occurred in each case leading up to the disasters under analysis. The book highlights four cases: New Orleans; Christchurch, New Zealand; the Japan earthquake and tsunami; and Hurricane Sandy in the Northeastern United States. The book places important focus on the specific collaborative developments unique to the rebuilding of each place’s economy post-disaster. Using time-series data, the book shows the emergence of new industries and job hiring patterns in the immediate aftermath, as well as provides a picture of the economic performance of each country in the years following each event. Looking at the economic development policies pre- and post-disaster, readers will glean important lessons on how to build resilient economies within the disaster framework, highlighting the differences in approaches to rebuilding local economies in places with varying levels of governmental capacity post-disaster to inform policymakers, scholars, and the disaster relief community as they plan their response to future disasters.
Book Synopsis Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing by : Shouyang Wang
Download or read book Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing written by Shouyang Wang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In our daily life, almost every family owns a portfolio of assets. This portfolio could contain real assets such as a car, or a house, as well as financial assets such as stocks, bonds or futures. Portfolio theory deals with how to form a satisfied portfolio among an enormous number of assets. Originally proposed by H. Markowtiz in 1952, the mean-variance methodology for portfolio optimization has been central to the research activities in this area and has served as a basis for the development of modem financial theory during the past four decades. Follow-on work with this approach has born much fruit for this field of study. Among all those research fruits, the most important is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) proposed by Sharpe in 1964. This model greatly simplifies the input for portfolio selection and makes the mean-variance methodology into a practical application. Consequently, lots of models were proposed to price the capital assets. In this book, some of the most important progresses in portfolio theory are surveyed and a few new models for portfolio selection are presented. Models for asset pricing are illustrated and the empirical tests of CAPM for China's stock markets are made. The first chapter surveys ideas and principles of modeling the investment decision process of economic agents. It starts with the Markowitz criteria of formulating return and risk as mean and variance and then looks into other related criteria which are based on probability assumptions on future prices of securities.
Book Synopsis Simulation and Game-Based Learning in Emergency and Disaster Management by : Drumhiller, Nicole K.
Download or read book Simulation and Game-Based Learning in Emergency and Disaster Management written by Drumhiller, Nicole K. and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2021-04-02 with total page 290 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulation and game-based learning are essential applications in a learning environment as they provide learners an opportunity to apply the course material in real-life scenarios. Introducing real-life learning allows the learner to make critical decisions at different points within the simulation providing constructive education that leads to a cognitive understanding of the material. The use of simulations provides the learner with the ability to cognitively store and recall learning in real-life experiences. Therefore, it is crucial to not only provide course material but to have students apply what they have learned in simulations that replicate real-life scenarios. These learned skills are essential for students to be marketable and thrive in a career field where decision making, problem solving, and critical thinking are job requirements. Simulation and Game-Based Learning in Emergency and Disaster Management is a cutting-edge research book that examines the best practices and holistic development when it comes to simulation learning within emergency and disaster management as well as global security. Drawing upon the neuroscience of learning, classroom instruction can be enhanced to incorporate active-experiential learning activities that positively impact a learner with long-term information retention. Each simulation project is carried out in different environments, with different goals in mind, and developed under various constraints. For these reasons, this book will provide insight into the simulation planning and development process, provide examples of online simulations and game-based learning activities, and provide insight on simulation development and implementation that can be used across disciplines in educational and training settings. As such, it is ideal for academicians, instructional designers, curriculum designers, education professionals, researchers, and students.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Disaster and Emergency Management. First Edition by : Amir Khorram-Manesh
Download or read book Handbook of Disaster and Emergency Management. First Edition written by Amir Khorram-Manesh and published by Amir Khorram-Manesh. This book was released on 2017-10-10 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose here a comprehensive educational program, based on the best available evidence to date drawn from recent publications intended to impart the knowledge, skills, and abilities necessary for the role of crisis manager. We expect this program to enhance the intercultural and interagency performance across the Disaster Management (DM) cycle. Here “Intercultural” does not refer to different nations and cultural backgrounds but rather to working cultures within diverse agencies. Since communication and information shortcomings are the most common reason for failed DM, this educational program focuses heavily on collaboration and interoperability between trained professionals involved in disaster response to ensure that they understand the need for collaboration and are aware of each other’s limitations and possibilities. The aim of programs such as this is not to re-educate people in respect to their profession/area of expertise, but rather to train them in elements specific to DM and ways in which they can apply their existing knowledge and professional expertise in the disaster context. Such multidisciplinary programs cover all disaster phases, accommodate the needs of each organization, and offer a safe environment where participants are able to learn by doing in an interactive environment--vertically within their own organization and horizontally together with other organizations--by focusing on shared training, cooperation, and intercultural understanding. Such programs bring some degree of standardization and offer a thorough evaluation of participants and the program by using evidence-based scientific methods. One important part of the program is to offer a standardized handbook in which all necessary information is gathered. This is not intended as a substitute for reference books, but it is intended to make the information accessible and easy to learn so that the information can be combined with the practical parts of the education
