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Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback
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Book Synopsis Learning in Economic Systems with Expectations Feedback by : Jan Wenzelburger
Download or read book Learning in Economic Systems with Expectations Feedback written by Jan Wenzelburger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Book Synopsis Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics by : Abraham C.-L. Chian
Download or read book Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics written by Abraham C.-L. Chian and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-17 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles, which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor and responsible for economic intermittency.
Book Synopsis Agent-Based Modeling by : Norman Ehrentreich
Download or read book Agent-Based Modeling written by Norman Ehrentreich and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-25 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book reconciles the existence of technical trading with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. By analyzing a well-known agent-based model, the Santa Fe Institute Artificial Stock Market (SFI-ASM), it finds that when selective forces are weak, financial evolution cannot guarantee that only the fittest trading rules will survive. Its main contribution lies in the application of standard results from population genetics which have widely been neglected in the agent-based community.
Book Synopsis Posted Price Offers in Internet Auction Markets by : Stefan Seifert
Download or read book Posted Price Offers in Internet Auction Markets written by Stefan Seifert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-25 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Applying a Market Engineering approach, this book introduces a model of an auction with a posted price offer, and investigates the characteristics of such mechanisms. It discusses the respective equilibrium strategies of sellers and the bidders, providing useful insight into actual behavior. The theoretic results are compared with strategies of students in a controlled experiment. The experimental observations expose shortcomings of standard economic theories and help to further improve electronic markets.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Stochastic Calculus for Finance by : Dieter Sondermann
Download or read book Introduction to Stochastic Calculus for Finance written by Dieter Sondermann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-12-02 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although there are many textbooks on stochastic calculus applied to finance, this volume earns its place with a pedagogical approach. The text presents a quick (but by no means "dirty") road to the tools required for advanced finance in continuous time, including option pricing by martingale methods, term structure models in a HJM-framework and the Libor market model. The reader should be familiar with elementary real analysis and basic probability theory.
Book Synopsis Optimal Risk-Return Trade-Offs of Commercial Banks by : Jochen Kühn
Download or read book Optimal Risk-Return Trade-Offs of Commercial Banks written by Jochen Kühn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-28 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book criticizes the fact that profitability measures derived from capital market models such as the Sharpe ratio and the reward-to-VaR ratio are proposed for loan portfolios, although it is not proven whether their risk-return trade-offs are optimal for banks. The authors demonstrate that even the reward-to-VaR ratio, which is developed for valuating loan portfolios, can be highly misleading. They also show how market discipline, capital requirements, and insured deposits affect decision-making.
Book Synopsis Experiments in Macroeconomics by : John Duffy
Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.
Book Synopsis Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments by : Peter Heemeijer
Download or read book Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments written by Peter Heemeijer and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics by : Kazuo Nishimura
Download or read book Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics written by Kazuo Nishimura and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-12-03 with total page 409 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the state-of-the-art in non-linear dynamics and sunspots. These two topics have been the core of an international conference on instability and public policies in a globalized world, organized at Aix-Marseille School of Economics and GREQAM in honor of Jean-Michel Grandmont. He has made significant contributions on general equilibrium theory, monetary theory, learning, aggregation, non-linear dynamics and sunspots. This book assembles contributions by Jean-Michel Grandmont's colleagues, students and friends that have been influenced by his works and that are at the frontier of research in this domain today.
Book Synopsis Computer-aided Systems in Public Transport by : Mark Hickman
Download or read book Computer-aided Systems in Public Transport written by Mark Hickman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-23 with total page 437 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume consists of selected papers presented at the Ninth International Conference on Computer-Aided Scheduling of Public Transport. Coverage includes the use of computer-aided methods and operations research techniques to improve: information management; network and route planning; vehicle and crew scheduling and rostering; vehicle monitoring and management; and practical experience with scheduling and public transport planning methods.
Book Synopsis Artificial Economics by : Philippe Mathieu
Download or read book Artificial Economics written by Philippe Mathieu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-17 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE) is a new discipline of economics, largely grounded on concepts like evolution, auto-organisation and emergence: it intensively uses computer simulations as well as artificial intelligence, mostly based on multi-agents systems. The purpose of this book is to give an up-to date view of the scientific production in the fields of Agent-based Computational Economics (mainly in Market Finance and Game Theory). Based on communications given at AE'2005 (Lille, USTL, France), this book offers a wide panorama of recent advances in ACE (both theoretical and methodological) that will interest academics as well as practitioners.
Book Synopsis Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework by : Wolfgang Lemke
Download or read book Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework written by Wolfgang Lemke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-08 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book has been prepared during my work as a research assistant at the Institute for Statistics and Econometrics of the Economics Department at the University of Bielefeld, Germany. It was accepted as a Ph.D. thesis titled "Term Structure Modeling and Estimation in a State Space Framework" at the Department of Economics of the University of Bielefeld in November 2004. It is a pleasure for me to thank all those people who have been helpful in one way or another during the completion of this work. First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to my advisor Professor Joachim Frohn, not only for his guidance and advice throughout the com pletion of my thesis but also for letting me have four very enjoyable years teaching and researching at the Institute for Statistics and Econometrics. I am also grateful to my second advisor Professor Willi Semmler. The project I worked on in one of his seminars in 1999 can really be seen as a starting point for my research on state space models. I thank Professor Thomas Braun for joining the committee for my oral examination.
Book Synopsis Reflexivity and Economics by : John B. Davis
Download or read book Reflexivity and Economics written by John B. Davis and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-04-19 with total page 156 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The form of ‘reflexivity’ – defined by the dictionary as that which is ‘directed back upon itself’ – that is most relevant to economic methodology is that where observation of the economy leads to ideas that change behavior, which in turn changes (is directed back upon) the economy itself. As George Soros explains: "if investors believe that markets are efficient then that belief will change the way they invest, and that in turn will change the nature of the markets they are observing ... That is the principle of reflexivity". Although various versions of reflexivity have long been discussed, in recent years George Soros has been particularly effective in bringing ideas about reflexivity to the attention of the economic and financial communities. In a series of writings he has systematically argued that reflexivity is not only an important aspect of economic life, it is an aspect that is neglected in most mainstream theorizing; and in addition, that the neglect of reflexivity has been responsible for the failure of economists to predict, explain, or offer a solution for events such as the recent financial crisis. Soros’ ideas about reflexivity have important methodological significance, and his chapter in this book summarizes and clarifies his arguments. His contribution is joined by those of thirteen scholars from a wide range of relevant fields, who provide a commentary on the idea of reflexivity in economics. This book was originally published as a special issue of The Journal of Economic Methodology.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Book Synopsis Pension Systems, Demographic Change, and the Stock Market by : Marten Hillebrand
Download or read book Pension Systems, Demographic Change, and the Stock Market written by Marten Hillebrand and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-10-16 with total page 178 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Due to the accelerating demographic change of the population the reform of the existing pension systems constitutes one of the greatest political challenges in most European countries. A theoretical discussion of different pension reforms must incorporate not only the demographic aspect but also the role of financial market risk and the impact on production and employment. These notes develop a dynamic macroeconomic model which incorporates these aspects within a flexible theoretical framework. The proposed approach provides a large scale population model and features a sound description of the production side as well as of the financial side of the economy and their interactions with the pension system. Within this framework various adjustment policies of the pension system are studied under different population scenarios. The consequences for the economy and the welfare of consumers are analyzed and compared.
Book Synopsis Pricing Interest-Rate Derivatives by : Markus Bouziane
Download or read book Pricing Interest-Rate Derivatives written by Markus Bouziane and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-03-18 with total page 207 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The author derives an efficient and accurate pricing tool for interest-rate derivatives within a Fourier-transform based pricing approach, which is generally applicable to exponential-affine jump-diffusion models.
