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Learning In Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback
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Book Synopsis Learning in Economic Systems with Expectations Feedback by : Jan Wenzelburger
Download or read book Learning in Economic Systems with Expectations Feedback written by Jan Wenzelburger and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-22 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous. These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system. The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy. A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Book Synopsis The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk by : Robin Pope
Download or read book The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk written by Robin Pope and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, applies complexity modelling to economics and finance.
Book Synopsis Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics by : Abraham C.-L. Chian
Download or read book Complex Systems Approach to Economic Dynamics written by Abraham C.-L. Chian and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-17 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Statistical analysis of stock markets and foreign exchange markets has demonstrated the intermittent nature of economic time series. A nonlinear model of business cycles is able to simulate intermittency arising from order-chaos and chaos-chaos transitions. This monograph introduces new concepts of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles, which are unstable structures embedded in a chaotic attractor and responsible for economic intermittency.
Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Book Synopsis Economic Dynamics and Information by : Jaroslav Zajac
Download or read book Economic Dynamics and Information written by Jaroslav Zajac and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-08-01 with total page 274 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the existence of equilibria in economies having a measured space of agents and a continuum of agents and commodities. Excessive homogeneity with respect to agent productivity leads to instability and non-uniqueness of a given stationary state and the indeterminacy of the corresponding stationary state equilibrium. Sufficient heterogeneity leads to global saddle-path stability, uniqueness of a given stationary state and the global uniqueness of the corresponding equilibrium.
Author :Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :3540686649 Total Pages :272 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (46 download)
Book Synopsis Economic Evolution and Equilibrium by : Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt
Download or read book Economic Evolution and Equilibrium written by Marco Lehmann-Waffenschmidt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-10 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work uses various model frameworks to study the evolution of equilibria in an open loop evolving economy in which the model characteristics evolve without any directional restrictions except for continuity. Applying mathematical methods, it is shown that equilibria can always be adapted in a piecewise gradual, non bang-bang way.
Book Synopsis Cooperative Systems by : Don Grundel
Download or read book Cooperative Systems written by Don Grundel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-03-21 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Because of the clearly important role cooperative systems play in areas such as military sciences, biology, communications, robotics, and economics, just to name a few, the study of cooperative systems has intensified. This book provides an insight in the basic understanding of cooperative systems as well as in theory, modeling, and applications of cooperative control, optimization and related problems.
Book Synopsis Preferences in Negotiations by : Henner Gimpel
Download or read book Preferences in Negotiations written by Henner Gimpel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-06-13 with total page 279 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The attachment effect can hinder effective negotiation. Parties are influenced by their subjective expectations formed on account of the exchange of offers, they form reference points, and loss aversion potentially leads to a change of preferences when expectations change. This book presents a motivation, formalization, and substantiation of the attachment effect. The results can be used for prescriptive advice to negotiators.
Book Synopsis Introduction to Stochastic Calculus for Finance by : Dieter Sondermann
Download or read book Introduction to Stochastic Calculus for Finance written by Dieter Sondermann and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-12-02 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although there are many textbooks on stochastic calculus applied to finance, this volume earns its place with a pedagogical approach. The text presents a quick (but by no means "dirty") road to the tools required for advanced finance in continuous time, including option pricing by martingale methods, term structure models in a HJM-framework and the Libor market model. The reader should be familiar with elementary real analysis and basic probability theory.
Book Synopsis Computational Aspects of General Equilibrium Theory by : Donald Brown
Download or read book Computational Aspects of General Equilibrium Theory written by Donald Brown and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-01-08 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph presents a general equilibrium methodology for microeconomic policy analysis. It is intended to serve as an alternative to the now classical, axiomatic general equilibrium theory as exposited in Debreu`s Theory of Value (1959) or Arrow and Hahn`s General Competitive Analysis (1971). The monograph consists of several essays written over the last decade. It also contains an appendix by Charles Steinhorn on the elements of O-minimal structures.
Book Synopsis Optimal Risk-Return Trade-Offs of Commercial Banks by : Jochen Kühn
Download or read book Optimal Risk-Return Trade-Offs of Commercial Banks written by Jochen Kühn and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-28 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book criticizes the fact that profitability measures derived from capital market models such as the Sharpe ratio and the reward-to-VaR ratio are proposed for loan portfolios, although it is not proven whether their risk-return trade-offs are optimal for banks. The authors demonstrate that even the reward-to-VaR ratio, which is developed for valuating loan portfolios, can be highly misleading. They also show how market discipline, capital requirements, and insured deposits affect decision-making.
Book Synopsis Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments by : Peter Heemeijer
Download or read book Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments written by Peter Heemeijer and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization by : Yong Fang
Download or read book Fuzzy Portfolio Optimization written by Yong Fang and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-20 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most of the existing portfolio selection models are based on the probability theory. Though they often deal with the uncertainty via probabilistic - proaches, we have to mention that the probabilistic approaches only partly capture the reality. Some other techniques have also been applied to handle the uncertainty of the ?nancial markets, for instance, the fuzzy set theory [Zadeh (1965)]. In reality, many events with fuzziness are characterized by probabilistic approaches, although they are not random events. The fuzzy set theory has been widely used to solve many practical problems, including ?nancial risk management. By using fuzzy mathematical approaches, quan- tative analysis, qualitative analysis, the experts’ knowledge and the investors’ subjective opinions can be better integrated into a portfolio selection model. The contents of this book mainly comprise of the authors’ research results for fuzzy portfolio selection problems in recent years. In addition, in the book, the authors will also introduce some other important progress in the ?eld of fuzzy portfolio optimization. Some fundamental issues and problems of po- folioselectionhavebeenstudiedsystematicallyandextensivelybytheauthors to apply fuzzy systems theory and optimization methods. A new framework for investment analysis is presented in this book. A series of portfolio sel- tion models are given and some of them might be more e?cient for practical applications. Some application examples are given to illustrate these models by using real data from the Chinese securities markets.
Book Synopsis Coping with Uncertainty by : Kurt Marti
Download or read book Coping with Uncertainty written by Kurt Marti and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-23 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ongoing global changes pose fundamentally new scientific problems requiring new concepts and tools. A key issue concerns a vast variety of practically irreducible uncertainties, which challenge traditional models and require new concepts and analytical tools. Uncertainty can dominate, as in the climate change debates. Increasing the resolution of models does not always yield sufficient certainty. This book presents much-needed new tools for modeling and management of uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Experiments in Macroeconomics by : John Duffy
Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.
