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Leaning Against The Wind A Cost Benefit Analysis For An Integrated Policy Framework
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Book Synopsis Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book Leaning Against the Wind: A Cost-Benefit Analysis for an Integrated Policy Framework written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-07-07 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes a new approach to assess the costs and benefits of using different policy tools—macroprudential, monetary, foreign exchange interventions, and capital flow management—in response to changes in financial conditions. The approach evaluates net benefits of policies using quadratic loss functions, estimating policy effects on the full distribution of future output growth and inflation with quantile regressions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth stemming from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses, calling for caution in the use of monetary policy to “lean against the wind.” These findings hold when policies are used in response to easing global financial conditions. Buying foreign-exchange or tightening capital controls has small net benefits.
Book Synopsis Leaning Against the Wind by : Luís Brandão Marques
Download or read book Leaning Against the Wind written by Luís Brandão Marques and published by . This book was released on 2021 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper takes a new approach to assess the benefits of using different policy tools -- macroprudential and monetary policies, foreign exchange interventions, and capital controls -- in response to changes in financial conditions. Starting from quantile regressions, we evaluate policies across the full distribution of future output growth and inflation using loss functions. Tightening macroprudential policy dampens downside risks to growth from loose financial conditions, and is beneficial in net terms. By contrast, tightening monetary policy entails net losses. These findings also hold when reacting to easing global financial conditions, while buying foreign exchange or tightening capital controls yields only small net benefits.
Book Synopsis Cost-benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind by : Trent Saunders
Download or read book Cost-benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind written by Trent Saunders and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781513558769 Total Pages :54 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (587 download)
Book Synopsis Toward an Integrated Policy Framework by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Toward an Integrated Policy Framework written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
Book Synopsis Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind by : Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson
Download or read book Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-11 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW.
Book Synopsis SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS by : GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.)
Download or read book SHOCKS AND CAPITAL FLOWS written by GASTON. SAHAY GELOS (RATNA.) and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023 with total page 2040 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania by : Mantas Dirma
Download or read book Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania written by Mantas Dirma and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-27 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
Book Synopsis Loose Financial Conditions, Rising Leverage, and Risks to Macro-Financial Stability by : Mr. Adolfo Barajas
Download or read book Loose Financial Conditions, Rising Leverage, and Risks to Macro-Financial Stability written by Mr. Adolfo Barajas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-08-20 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a steady increase following the global financial crisis, private nonfinancial sector leverage rose further during the COVID-19 on the back of easy financial conditions induced by unprecedented policy support. We investigate the empirical relationships between increased leverage, financial conditions, and macro-financial stability in a sample of major advanced and emerging market economies. We find that loose financial conditions contribute to leverage buildups and generate an intertemporal tradeoff: financial stability risk is lessened in the near term but exacerbated in the medium term. The tradeoff is amplified during credit booms, when debt service burdens are particularly high, or when the share of foreign currency debt is high in emerging markets. Selected macroprudential tools can arrest leverage buildups and mitigate the tradeoff.
Book Synopsis Housing Market Stability and Affordability in Asia-Pacific by : Mr. Pragyan Deb
Download or read book Housing Market Stability and Affordability in Asia-Pacific written by Mr. Pragyan Deb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-12-14 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper intends to highlight challenges in Asian housing markets linked to fast price rises especially in the advanced economies since COVID, and more broadly including many EMs in the period leading up to COVID. It aims to draw policy lessons on how to manage stability aspects through macroprudential and other policies and how to support affordability through structural policies and targeted government support.
Book Synopsis Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles by : Can Sever
Download or read book Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles written by Can Sever and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-06-16 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Book Synopsis Managing Remittances Inflows with Foreign Exchange Intervention by : Ms. Maria-Angels Oliva
Download or read book Managing Remittances Inflows with Foreign Exchange Intervention written by Ms. Maria-Angels Oliva and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-09-06 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a 157 emerging markets and developing countries sample, remittances continue to grow fast, outpacing other financial inflows (as a share of GDP), particularly in Asia. Without alternative policy instruments, foreign exchange interventions (FXIs) have often been the authorities’ go-to tool to manage the short-term effects of these remittance inflows. However, this practice comes at a cost. This paper shows that FXIs are quick, temporary solutions that often may hinder the development of the recipient country’s financial sector and may not support financial stability over the medium term. The analysis suggests that FXIs act as an insurance tool that, by mitigating FX volatility, protect remittance recipients and tradable sectors from FX risks, encouraging less bank deposits (consistent with more spending) and lower buffers in the banking sector. These costs add to other direct FXI-related costs already identified in the literature. The development of private sector market risk management tools should support longer-term structural reforms required to increase the absorptive capacity of additional FX inflows.
Book Synopsis Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)? by : Katharina Bergant
Download or read book Dampening Global Financial Shocks: Can Macroprudential Regulation Help (More than Capital Controls)? written by Katharina Bergant and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-06-26 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that macroprudential regulation can considerably dampen the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. More specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to VIX movements and capital flow shocks. A broad set of macroprudential tools contribute to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky forms of credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation enhances macroeconomic stability. These findings on the benefits of macroprudential regulation are particularly notable since we do not find evidence that stricter capital controls provide similar gains.
Book Synopsis Review of The Institutional View on The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows — Background Note on Capital Flows and Capital Flow Management Measures — Benefits and Costs by : Gurnain Kaur Pasricha
Download or read book Review of The Institutional View on The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows — Background Note on Capital Flows and Capital Flow Management Measures — Benefits and Costs written by Gurnain Kaur Pasricha and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-30 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Fund’s Institutional View (IV) recognizes the benefits of and risks associated with capital flows. Since the IV was adopted, a growing literature has provided additional insights into the benefits and risks from capital flows. This note summarizes the insights from the recent literature and the experiences of staff since the adoption of the IV that have informed this review.
Book Synopsis Review of The Institutional View on The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Review of The Institutional View on The Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-30 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows, adopted in 2012, provides the basis for consistent advice, and where relevant, assessments on policies related to capital flows. This paper reviews the IV, informed by advances in research, notably the work on an Integrated Policy Framework (IPF), the findings of the 2020 evaluation by the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on IMF Advice on Capital Flows, and staff’s experience with the implementation of the IV. The core premises and objectives of the IV remain unchanged. The IV rests on the premises that capital flows are desirable as they can bring substantial benefits for countries, and that capital flow management measures (CFMs) can be useful in certain circumstances but should not substitute for warranted macroeconomic adjustment. With those premises in mind, the IV aims to help countries reap the benefits of capital flows, while managing the associated risks in a way that preserves macroeconomic and financial stability and does not generate significant negative outward spillovers.
Book Synopsis The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses by : Mr.Pragyan Deb
Download or read book The Transmission of External Shocks in Asia: Country Characteristics and Policy Responses written by Mr.Pragyan Deb and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-01-08 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asian economies are increasingly integrated to the global economy through trade and financial linkages, exposing them to the international financial cycle. This paper explores how external shocks are transmitted to Asian economies and whether the use of policies, such as the monetary policy interest rate, foreign exchange intervention (FXI) and macroprudential measures (MPMs), can mitigate the impact of these external shocks. It uses panel quantile regressions on a sample of 14 Asian advanced and emerging economies (AEs and EMs) to assess the impact of financial and real shocks on investment and GDP growth at the median and 5th percentile tail. It finds that external financial shocks tend to have a larger effect on Asian economies than real shocks, and that the main transmission channels through which shocks are propagated are capital flows (particularly via corporate and bank balance sheets) for EMs, and credit for AEs. It also finds evidence that for Asian EMs, FXI may help dampen the capital flows and real exchange rate channels and mitigate financial shocks in the short run, and monetary policy transmission tends to be relatively weak; meanwhile MPMs can help mitigate the credit channel for both AEs and EMs.
Book Synopsis Facing the Global Financial Cycle: What Role for Policy by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book Facing the Global Financial Cycle: What Role for Policy written by Nicoletta Batini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract In this paper we ask whether countries can influence their exposure to changes in global financial conditions. Specifically, we show that even though we can model cross-country capital flows via a global factor that closely tracks changes in global financial conditions, there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the sensitivity of each country to this same global factor. We then evaluate whether this cross-country heterogeneity can be attributed to different policy choices, including measures of capital flow management, such as capital controls and macroprudential policies. In our main results, we show that higher levels of capital controls and macroprudential policies both dampen the sensitivity to the global factor. Furthermore, we show that countries’ monetary and exchange rate policies can also be successfully deployed. Overall, our results have implications that extend beyond the surge that preceded the 2008 global financial crisis, and that closely resonate in light of the financial disruptions that followed the COVID-19 pandemic.
Book Synopsis Estimating the Costs of Financial Regulation by : Mr.Andre Santos
Download or read book Estimating the Costs of Financial Regulation written by Mr.Andre Santos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-09-11 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
