Intelligence Analysis For Tomorrow

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Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309210941
Total Pages : 116 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (92 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 116 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Intelligence Analysis

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309176980
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-04-08 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Reducing Uncertainty

Author : Thomas Fingar
Publisher : Stanford University Press
ISBN 13 : 080477594X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (47 download)

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Book Synopsis Reducing Uncertainty by : Thomas Fingar

Download or read book Reducing Uncertainty written by Thomas Fingar and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 2011-07-20 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.

Cases in Intelligence Analysis

Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1483340147
Total Pages : 340 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)

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Book Synopsis Cases in Intelligence Analysis by : Sarah Miller Beebe

Download or read book Cases in Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 340 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy

Author : Sheila Wright
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317980956
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (179 download)

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Book Synopsis Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy by : Sheila Wright

Download or read book Competitive Intelligence, Analysis and Strategy written by Sheila Wright and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-07-10 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Holy Grail for most organisations is the successful attainment, and retention, of inimitable competitive advantage. This book addresses the question of how to leverage the unique intangible assets of an organisation: its explicit, implicit, acquired and derived knowledge. The refreshingly innovative concept of Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage© is one which will eclipse the cost-driven and resource-reduction attitudes most prevalent in the first decade of this century. Tomorrow’s organisation will need to derive IBCA© through the expert execution of bespoke competitive intelligence practice, unique analytical processes, pioneering competitive strategy formulation, and timely execution of all three, if they are to succeed. This volume consists of insights from Competitive Intelligence practices at both country and organisational level, Competitive Analysis processes within the firm and within challenging sector and economic environments and Competitive Strategy formulation in profit, non-profit, real and virtual world contexts. It is essential reading for anybody wishing to gain a formal understanding of the practical and intellectual challenges which will face organisations in the future as they strive to achieve strategic foresight and Intelligence-Based Competitive Advantage. This book was originally published as two special issues of the Journal of Strategic Marketing.

Intelligence Analysis

Author : National Research Council
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780309387200
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : National Research Council

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and published by . This book was released on 2011-03-08 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.

Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

Author : Richards J Heuer
Publisher : Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1839743050
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (397 download)

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Book Synopsis Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by : Richards J Heuer

Download or read book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and published by Pickle Partners Publishing. This book was released on 2020-03-05 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Intelligence Analysis

Author : Wayne Michael Hall
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN 13 : 0313382662
Total Pages : 458 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (133 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis by : Wayne Michael Hall

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis written by Wayne Michael Hall and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2009-12-22 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a vast conceptual and theoretical exploration of the ways intelligence analysis must change in order to succeed against today's most dangerous combatants and most complex irregular theatres of conflict. Intelligence Analysis: How to Think in Complex Environments fills a void in the existing literature on contemporary warfare by examining the theoretical and conceptual foundations of effective modern intelligence analysis—the type of analysis needed to support military operations in modern, complex operational environments. This volume is an expert guide for rethinking intelligence analysis and understanding the true nature of the operational environment, adversaries, and most importantly, the populace. Intelligence Analysis proposes substantive improvements in the way the U.S. national security system interprets intelligence, drawing on the groundbreaking work of theorists ranging from Carl von Clauswitz and Sun Tzu to M. Mitchell Waldrop, General David Petraeus, Richards Heuer, Jr., Orson Scott Card, and others. The new ideas presented here will help the nation to amass a formidable, cumulative intelligence power, with distinct advantages over any and all adversaries of the future regardless of the level of war or type of operational environment.

Why Intelligence Fails

Author : Robert Jervis
Publisher : Cornell University Press
ISBN 13 : 0801457610
Total Pages : 249 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (14 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Intelligence Fails by : Robert Jervis

Download or read book Why Intelligence Fails written by Robert Jervis and published by Cornell University Press. This book was released on 2010-12-15 with total page 249 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence, yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails, Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978, and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jervis's findings. The Iraq case, also grounded in a review of the intelligence community's performance, is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents, though Jervis's conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases, Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanations—analysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blind—were also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink, lack of coordination within the government, and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions, including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence, were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jervis's estimation, neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose, he concludes, from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted, a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments, and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insider's perspective, Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.

Intelligence and Strategy

Author : John Ferris
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134233345
Total Pages : 414 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (342 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence and Strategy by : John Ferris

Download or read book Intelligence and Strategy written by John Ferris and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-05-07 with total page 414 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John Ferris' work in strategic and intelligence history is widely praised for its originality and the breadth of its research. At last his major pioneering articles are now available in this one single volume. In Intelligence and Strategy these essential articles have been fundamentally revised to incorporate new evidence and information withheld by governments when they were first published. This volume reshapes the study of communications intelligence by tracing Britain's development of cipher machines providing the context to Ultra and Enigma, and by explaining how British and German signals intelligence shaped the desert war. The author also explains how intelligence affected British strategy and diplomacy from 1874 to 1940 and world diplomacy during the 1930s and the Second World War. Finally he traces the roots for contemporary intelligence, and analyzes intelligence and the RMA as well as the role of intelligence in the 2003 Gulf War. This volume ultimately brings new light to our understanding of the relations between intelligence, strategy and diplomacy between the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 21st century.

Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals

Author : Godfrey Garner
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1351249339
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals by : Godfrey Garner

Download or read book Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals written by Godfrey Garner and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2018-08-06 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.

Strategic Intelligence for the 21st Century

Author : Alfred Rolington
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 9780199654321
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (543 download)

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Book Synopsis Strategic Intelligence for the 21st Century by : Alfred Rolington

Download or read book Strategic Intelligence for the 21st Century written by Alfred Rolington and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2013-01-17 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offers a new model of intelligence analysis, the Mosaic Method, which capitalises on both the strengths and the weaknesses of the information revolution. Written by the former CEO of Jane's Information group, it presents analysis of current and past intelligence methods alongside fresh ideas and approaches for the future.

AI 2041

Author : Kai-Fu Lee
Publisher : Crown Currency
ISBN 13 : 0593238311
Total Pages : 497 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (932 download)

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Book Synopsis AI 2041 by : Kai-Fu Lee

Download or read book AI 2041 written by Kai-Fu Lee and published by Crown Currency. This book was released on 2024-03-05 with total page 497 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How will AI change our world within twenty years? A pioneering technologist and acclaimed writer team up for a “dazzling” (The New York Times) look at the future that “brims with intriguing insights” (Financial Times). This edition includes a new foreword by Kai-Fu Lee. A BEST BOOK OF THE YEAR: The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Financial Times Long before the advent of ChatGPT, Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan understood the enormous potential of artificial intelligence to transform our daily lives. But even as the world wakes up to the power of AI, many of us still fail to grasp the big picture. Chatbots and large language models are only the beginning. In this “inspired collaboration” (The Wall Street Journal), Lee and Chen join forces to imagine our world in 2041 and how it will be shaped by AI. In ten gripping, globe-spanning short stories and accompanying commentary, their book introduces readers to an array of eye-opening settings and characters grappling with the new abundance and potential harms of AI technologies like deep learning, mixed reality, robotics, artificial general intelligence, and autonomous weapons.

Intelligence

Author : Mark M. Lowenthal
Publisher : CQ Press
ISBN 13 : 1506379575
Total Pages : 563 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (63 download)

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Book Synopsis Intelligence by : Mark M. Lowenthal

Download or read book Intelligence written by Mark M. Lowenthal and published by CQ Press. This book was released on 2016-09-29 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mark M. Lowenthal’s trusted guide is the go-to resource for understanding how the intelligence community’s history, structure, procedures, and functions affect policy decisions. In this Seventh Edition, Lowenthal examines cyber space and the issues it presents to the intelligence community such as defining cyber as a new collection discipline; the implications of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s staff report on enhanced interrogation techniques; the rise of the Islamic State; and the issues surrounding the nuclear agreement with Iran. New sections have been added offering a brief summary of the major laws governing U.S. intelligence today such as domestic intelligence collection, whistleblowers vs. leakers, and the growing field of financial intelligence.

Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309152666
Total Pages : 115 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context by : National Research Council

Download or read book Field Evaluation in the Intelligence and Counterintelligence Context written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-03-16 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On September 22-23, 2009, the National Research Council held a workshop on the field evaluation of behavioral and cognitive sciences-based methods and tools for use in the areas of intelligence and counterintelligence. Broadly speaking, the purpose of the workshop was to discuss the best ways to take methods and tools from behavioral science and apply them to work in intelligence operations. More specifically, the workshop focused on the issue of field evaluation-the testing of these methods and tools in the context in which they will be used in order to determine if they are effective in real-world settings. This book is a summary and synthesis of the two days of presentations and discussions that took place during the workshop. The workshop participants included invited speakers and experts from a number of areas related to the behavioral sciences and the intelligence community. The discussions covered such ground as the obstacles to field evaluation of behavioral science tools and methods, the importance of field evaluation, and various lessons learned from experience with field evaluation in other areas.

Tomorrow, the World

Author : Stephen Wertheim
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 067424866X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (742 download)

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Book Synopsis Tomorrow, the World by : Stephen Wertheim

Download or read book Tomorrow, the World written by Stephen Wertheim and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2020-10-27 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A new history explains how and why, as it prepared to enter World War II, the United States decided to lead the postwar world. For most of its history, the United States avoided making political and military commitments that would entangle it in European-style power politics. Then, suddenly, it conceived a new role for itself as the world’s armed superpower—and never looked back. In Tomorrow, the World, Stephen Wertheim traces America’s transformation to the crucible of World War II, especially in the months prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor. As the Nazis conquered France, the architects of the nation’s new foreign policy came to believe that the United States ought to achieve primacy in international affairs forevermore. Scholars have struggled to explain the decision to pursue global supremacy. Some deny that American elites made a willing choice, casting the United States as a reluctant power that sloughed off “isolationism” only after all potential competitors lay in ruins. Others contend that the United States had always coveted global dominance and realized its ambition at the first opportunity. Both views are wrong. As late as 1940, the small coterie of officials and experts who composed the U.S. foreign policy class either wanted British preeminence in global affairs to continue or hoped that no power would dominate. The war, however, swept away their assumptions, leading them to conclude that the United States should extend its form of law and order across the globe and back it at gunpoint. Wertheim argues that no one favored “isolationism”—a term introduced by advocates of armed supremacy in order to turn their own cause into the definition of a new “internationalism.” We now live, Wertheim warns, in the world that these men created. A sophisticated and impassioned narrative that questions the wisdom of U.S. supremacy, Tomorrow, the World reveals the intellectual path that brought us to today’s global entanglements and endless wars.

Improving Intelligence Analysis

Author : Stephen Marrin
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136680470
Total Pages : 193 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (366 download)

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Book Synopsis Improving Intelligence Analysis by : Stephen Marrin

Download or read book Improving Intelligence Analysis written by Stephen Marrin and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-08-21 with total page 193 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book on intelligence analysis written by intelligence expert Dr. Stephen Marrin argues that scholarship can play a valuable role in improving intelligence analysis. Improving intelligence analysis requires bridging the gap between scholarship and practice. Compared to the more established academic disciplines of political science and international relations, intelligence studies scholarship is generally quite relevant to practice. Yet a substantial gap exists nonetheless. Even though there are many intelligence analysts, very few of them are aware of the various writings on intelligence analysis which could help them improve their own processes and products. If the gap between scholarship and practice were to be bridged, practitioners would be able to access and exploit the literature in order to acquire new ways to think about, frame, conceptualize, and improve the analytic process and the resulting product. This volume contributes to the broader discussion regarding mechanisms and methods for improving intelligence analysis processes and products. It synthesizes these articles into a coherent whole, linking them together through common themes, and emphasizes the broader vision of intelligence analysis in the introduction and conclusion chapters. The book will be of great interest to students of intelligence studies, strategic studies, US national security, US foreign policy, security studies and political science in general,as well as professional intelligence analysts and managers.