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Author : Shayne C. Kavanagh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780891250029
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (5 download)
Download or read book Informed Decision-Making Through Forecasting written by Shayne C. Kavanagh and published by . This book was released on 2016-09-15 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309180538
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author : Lars Wittrock
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)
Download or read book Useful Forecasting written by Lars Wittrock and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Having information about an uncertain event is crucial for informed decision-making. This paper introduces a simple framework in which 1) a principal uses the reported beliefs of multiple agents to make a decision and 2) the agents reporting a belief are affected by the decision. Naturally, the question arises how the principal can incentivize the agents to report their belief truthfully. I show that in this setting a direct reporting mechanism using a scoring rule to incentivize belief reports and a fixed decision rule lead to truthful reporting by all agents as the unique Nash equilibrium under precisely two conditions, preference diversity and no pivotality. Moreover, if the principal can only consult a single agent the only mechanism that can guarantee truth-telling requires perfect knowledge of the agent's preferences.
Author : Brian C. Twiss
Publisher : IET
ISBN 13 : 9780863412851
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (128 download)
Download or read book Forecasting for Technologists and Engineers written by Brian C. Twiss and published by IET. This book was released on 1992 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is written for all technologists and engineers. To those unfamiliar with forecasting it may appear a somewhat esoteric activity with little relevance to the everyday technical concerns of the reader. This is not so. The aim of this book is to show how forecasting can improve the quality of technical decision making. Furthermore, this can be accomplished without the use of highly sophisticated techniques which can only be applied by specialists. The approaches described in this book can be easily understood and used by all its readers.
Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309116600
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-02-15 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation.
Author : Arthur G. Cook
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1317134109
Total Pages : 323 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (171 download)
Download or read book Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry written by Arthur G. Cook and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2016-03-03 with total page 323 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex ’black box’ equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)
Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author : Nancy Kay Beller-Simms
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (327 download)
Download or read book Decision-support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal-to-interannual Forecasts and Observational Data written by Nancy Kay Beller-Simms and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephan Kolassa
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 100095899X
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals written by Stephan Kolassa and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-09-29 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations. This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented. Key Features: While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap. It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice. It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.
Author : Annele Eerola
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 142 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (38 download)
Download or read book Managing Forecasting Services written by Annele Eerola and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Barrett Williams
Publisher : Barrett Williams
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 163 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)
Download or read book The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth written by Barrett Williams and published by Barrett Williams. This book was released on 2024-08-24 with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock the Power of Predicting Tomorrow with "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth"! Are you ready to delve into the intricate world of economic forecasting? Discover the strategies, methods, and tools that shape the way experts predict future economic trends. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your comprehensive guide to mastering economic predictions and leveraging them for smarter decision-making. Start your journey with an essential introduction to economic forecasting, exploring its significance, history, and the key players that have set the stage. As you progress, get acquainted with the fundamentals of data analysis in economics – uncover the types of data, collection methods, and basic concepts in economic modeling. Dive deeper into statistical techniques with chapters dedicated to descriptive and inferential statistics, and regression analysis. Grasp the intricacies of time series analysis and learn how to utilize economic indicators for accurate predictions. Build your full understanding of constructing and validating predictive economic models. Venture into advanced econometric techniques and discover the cutting-edge role of machine learning in economic forecasting. Understand the impact of big data, and the nuanced field of behavioral economics, to enhance your forecasting accuracy even further. Explore the significance of economic policy analysis, scenario planning, and stress testing. Enhance your insight on forecasting financial markets and evaluate the accuracy of your predictions with clear, actionable metrics. Learn the best practices for communicating your forecasts, ensuring clarity and impact. Ethics play a critical role in economic forecasting. This eBook provides a mindful exploration of ethical considerations, dilemmas, and solutions, backed by real-world case studies. Utilize forecasts to shape business strategies and align them with market realities. As you reach the final chapters, look ahead to the future of economic forecasting, exploring emerging trends, the transformative influence of AI, and the dynamics of a globalized economy. "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is a must-have for anyone seeking to understand and apply economic forecasting techniques. Equip yourself with the knowledge to predict, plan, and prosper in an ever-changing economic landscape. Your journey into the future of economics starts here!
Author : George Wilton
Publisher : Az Boek
ISBN 13 : 6256315820
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (563 download)
Download or read book Financial forecasting: tools and techniques for stability written by George Wilton and published by Az Boek. This book was released on 2024-04-27 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Panida Subsorn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789533070698
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (76 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Rubber Production Using Intelligent Time Series Analysis to Support Decision Makers written by Panida Subsorn and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This chapter has investigated the best-fitting forecasting model for national rubber production forecasting for 2007 and 2008. The methods used in this study were based on non-neural network training and neural network training techniques to compare with the actual rubber production data for the best-fitting forecasting model. Hence, neural network training was presented to obtain more accurate forecasts for 2007 and 2008. To our knowledge, this is the preliminary study that brings a new perspective to policy makers in the public agricultural rubber industry in Thailand in creating forecasts with AI techniques. This proposed methodology may be considered as a successful decision support tool in national rubber production forecasting in Thailand. It appears that the prediction based on annual production figures is the most likely to be successfully implemented. However, further research over a longer period of time is need to judge more clearly how effectively.
Author : John E. Triantis
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1466585986
Total Pages : 439 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (665 download)
Download or read book Navigating Strategic Decisions written by John E. Triantis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2013-06-12 with total page 439 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions. Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to: Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.
Author : Richard Pettinger
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118348117
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (183 download)
Download or read book Business Studies For Dummies written by Richard Pettinger and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2014-02-03 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Your hands-on introduction to modern business and business education Whether you're deciding on a course of study, headed to university, or settling down to your first year, Business Studies For Dummies provides you with a thorough overview of the subjects that form the foundation of a business studies degree. You'll get trusted, easy-to-follow coverage of all the topics you'll encounter: business start-up, accounting and finance, operations, human resources, management, analytics, business environment, and economics. Includes a clear, engaging, and concise overview of the key topics you'll encounter in your studies The perfect study companion for students With Business Studies For Dummies, you'll be one step ahead of the competition—at university and on the job.
Author : Federico Divina
Publisher : MDPI
ISBN 13 : 3036508627
Total Pages : 100 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (365 download)
Download or read book Advanced Optimization Methods and Big Data Applications in Energy Demand Forecast written by Federico Divina and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2021-08-30 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The use of data collectors in energy systems is growing more and more. For example, smart sensors are now widely used in energy production and energy consumption systems. This implies that huge amounts of data are generated and need to be analyzed in order to extract useful insights from them. Such big data give rise to a number of opportunities and challenges for informed decision making. In recent years, researchers have been working very actively in order to come up with effective and powerful techniques in order to deal with the huge amount of data available. Such approaches can be used in the context of energy production and consumption considering the amount of data produced by all samples and measurements, as well as including many additional features. With them, automated machine learning methods for extracting relevant patterns, high-performance computing, or data visualization are being successfully applied to energy demand forecasting.
Author : Sachi Mohanty
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1040051502
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Artificial Intelligence in Forecasting written by Sachi Mohanty and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2024-07-19 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting deals with the uncertainty of the future. To be effective, forecasting models should be timely available, accurate, reliable, and compatible with existing database. Accurate projection of the future is of vital importance in supply chain management, inventory control, economic condition, technology, growth trend, social change, political change, business, weather forecasting, stock price prediction, earthquake prediction, etc. AI powered tools and techniques of forecasting play a major role in improving the projection accuracy. The software running AI forecasting models use machine learning to improve accuracy. The software can analyse the past data and can make better prediction about the future trends with higher accuracy and confidence that favours for making proper future planning and decision. In other words, accurate forecasting requires more than just the matching of models to historical data. The book covers the latest techniques used by managers in business today, discover the importance of forecasting and learn how it's accomplished. Readers will also be familiarised with the necessary skills to meet the increased demand for thoughtful and realistic forecasts.
