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Inflation Expectations And The Supply Chain
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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain by : Elías Albagli
Download or read book Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain written by Elías Albagli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-08-12 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations have a complete pass-through to sales prices. Leveraging a unique dataset on Chilean firms merging expectation surveys and records from the VAT and customs registries, we document that changes in prices at which firms purchase inputs inform their forecasts of the economy’s inflation. This is the case even if changes in input costs do not determine the inflation outcome. These findings reject the full-information rational-expectations hypothesis and are consistent with firms’ disagreement about future inflation and inattention to macroeconomic news, which we document for Chile. Our results from a firm-level Phillips’ curve estimation suggest that firms’ beliefs about inflation are a key determinant for their price-setting decisions. Therefore, we argue that the channel we highlight in this paper has the potential to lead to dispersion in inflation expectations, price dispersion, and weaken the expectation channel of policies.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa by : Zo Andriantomanga
Download or read book Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges for Inflation and Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa written by Zo Andriantomanga and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-02-24 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Covid-19 pandemic has led to a large disruption of global supply chains. This paper studies the implications of supply chain disruptions for inflation and monetary policy in sub-Saharan Africa. Increases in supply chain pressures have had a sizeable impact on headline, food, and tradable inflation for a panel of 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2022. Our findings suggest that central banks can stabilize inflation and output more efficiently by monitoring global supply chains and adjusting the monetary policy stance before the disruptions have fully passed through into all inflation components. The gains from monitoring supply chain disruptions are particularly large for open economies which tend to experience outsized second-round effects on the prices of non-tradable goods and services.
Book Synopsis This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation by : Mr. Serhan Cevik
Download or read book This Is Going to Hurt: Weather Anomalies, Supply Chain Pressures and Inflation written by Mr. Serhan Cevik and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As climate change accelerates, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events are expected to worsen and have greater adverse consequences for ecosystems, physical infrastructure, and economic activity across the world. This paper investigates how weather anomalies affect global supply chains and inflation dynamics. Using monthly data for six large and well-diversified economies (China, the Euro area, Japan, Korea, the United Kingdom, and the United States) over the period 1997-2021, we implement a structural vector autoregressive model and document that weather anomalies could disrupt supply chains and subsequently lead to inflationary pressures. Our results—based on high-frequency data and robust to alternative estimation methodologies—show that these effects vary across countries, depending on the severity of weather shocks and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. The impact of weather shocks on supply chains and inflation dynamics is likely to become more pronounced with accelerating climate change that can have non-linear effects. These findings have important policy implications. Central bankers should consider the impact of weather anomalies on supply chains and inflation dynamics to prevent entrenching second-round effects and de-anchoring of inflation expectations. More directly, however, governments can invest more for climate change adaptation to strengthen critical infrastructure and thereby minimize supply chain disruptions.
Book Synopsis DEMAND MANAGEMENT: Supply Constraints and Inflation by : R.K. SHARMA
Download or read book DEMAND MANAGEMENT: Supply Constraints and Inflation written by R.K. SHARMA and published by Global India Publications. This book was released on 2009-12 with total page 318 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents the fundamentals for developing more reliable demand plans and schedules.It also shows what is necessary to build successful tradition partner relationships for demand collaboration.This book defines waht is reasonable to expect from a demand management process.It is our hope that the lesson shared in the book will stimulate improvements on how demand management is applied in your company and in the supply chains in which your company operates.
Book Synopsis Shipping Costs and Inflation by : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Shipping Costs and Inflation written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-03-25 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of shocks to global shipping costs—measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variables approach in which we instrument changes in shipping costs with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal.
Book Synopsis Demand Management, Supply Constraints and Inflation by : Michael J. Artis
Download or read book Demand Management, Supply Constraints and Inflation written by Michael J. Artis and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Monograph of essays examining economic theory trends relating to supply constraints, inflation and consumer demand management in UK economic policies - discusses labour supply, unemployment, absenteeism, normal-cost hypothesis of pricing, fiscal policy effects, the impact of public expenditure, wages, incomes policies, economic concentration and industrial structure, etc. Graphs and references.
Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo
Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2022 by : International Monetary
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2022 written by International Monetary and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2022-10-11 with total page 186 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.
Book Synopsis Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy by : Akkucuk, Ulas
Download or read book Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy written by Akkucuk, Ulas and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2022-08-15 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the COVID-19 pandemic comes to a close, inflation has revealed itself to be a major problem for all countries of the developed world. The problem has been exacerbated in developing nations, which had problems even before the pandemic. Energy prices have increased, and with the increase in transportation costs, it has been more difficult for many retailers to stock shelves as they did before the pandemic. It is understood by many that the rising prices and supply chain disruptions will likely not be temporary and must be managed by future executives. Managing Inflation and Supply Chain Disruptions in the Global Economy uncovers the many ways businesses can manage this new phenomenon. It discusses global crises and their effects on the global economy in terms of inflation and supply chain. Covering topics such as inflationist impact, crisis leadership, and deglobalization, this premier reference source is an essential resource for economists, supply chain specialists, government officials, consultants, business leaders and executives, logistics professionals, IT managers, students and educators of higher education, researchers, and academicians.
Download or read book Failure to Adjust written by Edward Alden and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2017-09-15 with total page 268 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: *Updated edition with a new foreword on the Trump administration's trade policy* The vast benefits promised by the supporters of globalization, and by their own government, have never materialized for many Americans. In Failure to Adjust Edward Alden provides a compelling history of the last four decades of US economic and trade policies that have left too many Americans unable to adapt to or compete in the current global marketplace. He tells the story of what went wrong and how to correct the course. Originally published on the eve of the 2016 presidential election, Alden’s book captured the zeitgeist that would propel Donald J. Trump to the presidency. In a new introduction to the paperback edition, Alden addresses the economic challenges now facing the Trump administration, and warns that economic disruption will continue to be among the most pressing issues facing the United States. If the failure to adjust continues, Alden predicts, the political disruptions of the future will be larger still.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies by : Ioanna T. Kokores
Download or read book Monetary Policy in Interdependent Economies written by Ioanna T. Kokores and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2023-10-04 with total page 255 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the challenges faced by central banks in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the events that followed. It further emphasises the asymmetries in the transmission of monetary policy in the Eurozone economies and among major advanced economies. The book also highlights the advances in the monetary policy debate towards an efficient resource allocation. The author argues that the canonical model of macroeconomic stabilization, which assigns the main burden of stabilization to monetary policy, is outdated primarily because of the absence of financial frictions. Further, she highlights the urgency of pushing risky activities outside the perimeters of regulation in face of rapidly evolving financial markets. The book provides an analytical framework in the context of intense globalisation and increased interdependence across economies, irrespective of the recent re-examining of supply-chains and trade relationships, as well as a policy framework thoroughly amended after the global financial crisis and the crises that followed it. Presenting policy proposals, the book discusses how policymakers must try to develop a set of policies that the public will have confidence in and take into account in forming expectations about future inflation and spending. It will be useful to central banking practitioners, monetary and fiscal policymakers, as well as students and scholars in economics and, in particular, financial economics.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :182 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2023 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2023 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-10-10 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest World Economic Outlook reports signs that policy tightening is starting to cool activity despite core inflation proving persistent. Risks are more balanced as banking sector stress has receded, but they remain tilted to the downside. Monetary policy should stay the course to bring inflation to target, while fiscal consolidation is needed to tackle soaring debts. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.
Book Synopsis OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2 by : OECD
Download or read book OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2 written by OECD and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 225 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is uneven and becoming imbalanced. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 2, highlights the continued benefits of vaccinations and strong policy support for the global economy, but also points to the risks and policy challenges arising from supply constraints and rising inflation pressures.
