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Author : Kai Li
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)
Download or read book Inferring Volatility Persistence from Option Implied Volatility written by Kai Li and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ivan Oscar Asensio
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (14 download)
Download or read book Essays on the persistence of the forecast bias of option implied volatility written by Ivan Oscar Asensio and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Tim Bollerslev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Dynamic Estimation of Volatility Risk Premia and Investor Risk Aversion from Option-implied and Realized Volatilities written by Tim Bollerslev and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This paper proposes a method for constructing a volatility risk premium, or investor risk aversion, index. The method is intuitive and simple to implement, relying on the sample moments of the recently popularized model-free realized and option-implied volatility measures. A small-scale Monte Carlo experiment suggests that the procedure works well in practice. Implementing the procedure with actual S&P 500 option-implied volatilities and high-frequency five-minute-based realized volatilities results in significant temporal dependencies in the estimated stochastic volatility risk premium, which we in turn relate to a set of underlying macro-finance state variables. We also find that the extracted volatility risk premium helps predict future stock market returns"--Abstract.
Author : Kaushik I. Amin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Inferring Future Volatility from the Information in Implied Volatility in Eurodollar Options written by Kaushik I. Amin and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the information content of implied volatility from several volatility specifications of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) (HJM) model relative to popular historical volatility models in the Eurodollar options market. The implied volatility from the HJM models explains much of the variation of realized interest rate volatility over both daily and monthly horizons. The implied volatility dominates the GARCH terms, the Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (1993) type asymmetric volatility terms, and the interest rate level. However, it cannot explain that the impact of interest rate shocks on the volatility is lower when interest rates are low than when they are high.
Author : James M. Poterba
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations written by James M. Poterba and published by . This book was released on 1984 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist. These shocks can therefore have only a small impact on stockmarket prices, since changes in volatility affect expected required rates of return for relatively short intervals. These findings lead us to be skeptical of recent claims that the stock market's poor performance during the 1970's can be explained by volatility-induced increases in risk premia.
Author : Federico M. Bandi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book A Fundamentally Different Interpretation of the Relation between Implied and Realized Volatility written by Federico M. Bandi and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We argue that the persistence properties of financial market volatility need to be taken into account when carrying out inference about volatility measures, for example when assessing the relation between realized and implied volatility series. If these volatility measures display long memory, as often argued in recent work, then the conventional predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of the option (regressand) appears to be a (fractional) cointegrating relation. Since cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this finding modifies the usual interpretation of such regression as a study towards assessing option market efficiency (based on a certain option pricing model) and/or short-term unbiasedness of implied volatility as a predictor of realized volatility. In this paper we use spectral methods and exploit the potential long memory in the data to design an econometric methodology which is robust to the various issues that the literature on the relation between implied and realized volatility has proposed as plausible explanations (measurement errors and presence of an unobservable time-varying risk premium, for instance) for an estimated slope coefficient less than one, implying biasedness, in the standard predictive regression. Our evidence in favor of long-run unbiasedness is rather strong. Little can be said about market efficiency and/or short-term unbiasedness which were the objects of the previous studies.
Author : Florian Ielpo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Mean-reversion Properties of Implied Volatilities written by Florian Ielpo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we present a new stylized fact for options whose underlying asset is a stock index. Extracting implied volatility time series from call and put options on the DAX and FTSE indexes, we show that the persistence of these volatilities depends on the moneyness of the options used for its computation. Using a functional autoregressive model, we show that this effect is statistically significant. Surprisingly, we show that the diffusion-based stochastic volatility models are not consistent with this stylized fact. Finally, we argue that adding jumps to a diffusion-based volatility model help recovering this volatility pattern. This suggests that the persistence of implied volatilities can be related to the tails of the underlying volatility process: this corroborates the intuition than the liquidity of the options across moneynesses introduces an additional risk factor to the one usually considered.
Author : Torben G. Andersen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)
Download or read book Construction and Interpretation of Model-free Implied Volatility written by Torben G. Andersen and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The notion of model-free implied volatility (MFIV), constituting the basis for the highly publicized VIX volatility index, can be hard to measure with accuracy due to the lack of precise prices for options with strikes in the tails of the return distribution. This is reflected in practice as the VIX index is computed through a tail-truncation which renders it more compatible with the related concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV). We provide a comprehensive derivation of the CIV measure and relate it to MFIV under general assumptions. In addition, we price the various volatility contracts, and hence estimate the corresponding volatility measures, under the standard Black-Scholes model. Finally, we undertake the first empirical exploration of the CIV measures in the literature. Our results indicate that the measure can help us refine and systematize the information embedded in the derivatives markets. As such, the CIV measure may serve as a tool to facilitate empirical analysis of both volatility forecasting and volatility risk pricing across distinct future states of the world for diverse asset categories and time horizons.
Author : Robert A. Jarrow
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 472 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.
Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Author : Eugenie M.J.H. Hol
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 147575129X
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets written by Eugenie M.J.H. Hol and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.
Author : Chuong Luong
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Analysis of Market Volatility Via a Dynamically Purified Option Price Process written by Chuong Luong and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies methods of dynamic estimation of volatility for financial time series. We suggest to estimate the volatility as the implied volatility inferred from some artificial 'dynamically purified' price process that in theory allows to eliminate the impact of the stock price movements. The complete elimination would be possible if the option prices were available for continuous sets of strike prices and expiration times. In practice, we have to use only finite sets of available prices. We discuss the construction of this process from the available option prices using different methods. In order to overcome the incompleteness of the available option prices, we suggests several interpolation approaches, including the first order Taylor series extrapolation and quadratic interpolation. We examine the potential of the implied volatility derived from this proposed process for forecasting of the future volatility, in comparison with the traditional implied volatility process such as the volatility index VIX.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 788 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (555 download)
Download or read book The Journal of Derivatives written by and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 788 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Eduardo Astorino
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (952 download)
Download or read book Variance Premium and Implied Volatility in a Low-liquidity Option Market written by Eduardo Astorino and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Level Shifts in Volatility and the Implied-Realized Volatility Relation written by Bent Jesper Christensen and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a simple model in which realized stock market return volatility and implied volatility backed out of option prices are subject to common level shifts corresponding to movements between bull and bear markets. The model is estimated using the Kalman filter in a generalization to the multivariate case of the univariate level shift technique by Lu and Perron (2008). An application to the S&P500 index and a simulation experiment show that the recently documented empirical properties of strong persistence in volatility and forecastability of future realized volatility from current implied volatility, which have been interpreted as long memory (or fractional integration) in volatility and fractional co-integration between implied and realized volatility, are accounted for by occasional common level shifts.
Author : Maxim Sokolov
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 99 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (127 download)
Download or read book A Deeper Look at the Implied Volatility Spread as a Predictor of Stock Returns written by Maxim Sokolov and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 99 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "I develop a new explanation of the implied volatility spread anomaly of Bali and Hovakimian (2009) and Cremers and Weinbaum (2010). The stock price observed in the stock market and the option implied stock price inferred from the option market are two noisy sources of information about the stock value. If these sources contain enough nonredundant information, the estimate of the stock value is between these prices, and the prices are expected to revert toward this estimate. This simple model is able to explain the reversals of the option implied prices toward the stock prices. Overall, the model of noisy prices is better aligned with the empirical patterns associated with the implied volatility spread phenomenon than other existing explanations of the phenomenon. I also document that if we invest in the implied volatility spread strategy at the end of each month, the next day excess return is 71 bps, which is almost twice as high as the average daily excess return of the implied volatility spread strategy. I show that this abnormal return from the end-of-month signal does not seem to be driven by seasonal trading patterns of institutional investors. If we take into account transaction costs, active trading on the implied volatility spread is too costly even for the marginal investor. This result is consistent with the model of noisy prices. However, the implied volatility spread can be used as a signal for the optimization of other trading strategies. If the implied volatility spread is used as a screening signal for a small stocks strategy, it modestly improves the performance of the baseline strategy"--Page vii.
Author : 張凱君
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Empirical Study on the Predictive Ability of Option-implied Volatility written by 張凱君 and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
