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Individual Forecasting And Aggregate Outcomes
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Book Synopsis Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Book Synopsis INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES by :
Download or read book INDIVIDUAL FORECASTING AND AGGREGATE OUTCOMES written by and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes by : Edmund S Phelps
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Edmund S Phelps and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Individual forecasting and aggregate outcomes. "Rational expectations" examined. Proceedings of a conference, 1981, New York by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Individual forecasting and aggregate outcomes. "Rational expectations" examined. Proceedings of a conference, 1981, New York written by Roman Frydman and published by . This book was released on 1983 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Rethinking Expectations by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by . This book was released on 1983* with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior by : Tiziana Assenza
Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior written by Tiziana Assenza and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. Three aggregate outcomes are observed: convergence to some equilibrium level, persistent oscillatory behavior and oscillatory convergence. We fit a heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the experimental data. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as well as aggregate macro behavior and outperforms homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Moreover, in accordance to theoretical results in the literature on monetary policy, we find that an interest rate rule that reacts more than point for point to inflation has some stabilizing effects on inflation in our experimental economies, although convergence can be slow in presence of evolutionary learning.
Book Synopsis Imperfect Knowledge Economics by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
Book Synopsis Imperfect Competition, Differential Information, and Microfoundations of Macroeconomics by : Kiyohiko G. Nishimura
Download or read book Imperfect Competition, Differential Information, and Microfoundations of Macroeconomics written by Kiyohiko G. Nishimura and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1995 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume links a microeconomic model of imperfectly informed firms and unions in monopolistic competition to a general theory of wage- and price-setting in a macroeconomic model. The analysis is based on a profit maximization and rational behaviour and is thus in line with the newly emerged New Keynesian approach in its emphasis on the microeconomic foundation of macroeconomics. The volume goes on to explain three stylized facts in macroeconomics: nominal rigidity, real rigidity, and cost-oriented prices, presented in a coherent New Keynesian framework. The analysis also provides new insight into the role of competition in an economy with imperfectly and differentially informed firms. It shows that increased competition may increase nominal as well as real price rigidity and increased volatility of investment.
Download or read book Economics Essays written by Gerard Debreu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back in the good old days on the fourth floor of the Altbau of Bonn's Ju ridicum, Werner Hildenbrand put an end to a debate about a festschrift in honor of an economist on the occasion of his turning 60 with a laconic: "Much too early." Remembering his position five years ago, we did not dare to think about one for him. But now he has turned 65. If consulted, he would most likely still answer: "Much too early." However, he has to take his official re tirement, and we believe that this is the right moment for such an endeavor. No doubt Werner Hildenbrand will not really retire. As professor emeritus, free from the constraints of a rigid teaching schedule and the burden of com mittee meetings, he will be able to indulge his passions. We expect him to pursue, with undiminished enthusiasm, his research, travel, golfing, the arts, and culinary pleasures - escaping real retirement.
Book Synopsis The Evolution of Economic Institutions by : Geoffrey Martin Hodgson
Download or read book The Evolution of Economic Institutions written by Geoffrey Martin Hodgson and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume documents in a unique manner the momentum the institutionalist, evolutionary research agenda has regained over the past two decades. The thought-provoking contributions come from prominent authors with a rather heterogeneous theoretical background. Nonetheless, they all convene in elaborating on issues that have always been at the core of the institutionalist agenda and show how these issues relate to cutting edge research in modern economics. Ulrich Witt, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena, Germany This excellent EAEPE Reader brings together a range of perspectives on the role of institutions in economics. It is very well structured, with parts on microeconomics, macroeconomics, markets and economic evolution. Each part contains chapters written by renowned experts in their respective fields and there is an authoritative introductory chapter by the editor. This Reader is invaluable for economics students and academic economists wishing to better understand how institutions and individual behaviours interact in the economic system. Much of standard economic analysis either ignores institutions or makes overly restrictive assumptions about them the authors in this book show, persuasively, that economics, without an adequate treatment of institutions and institutional change, is of very little scientific worth. John Foster, The University of Queensland, Australia This is a great set of essays. To get the richness they contain, the reader must be already familiar with the broad orientation of the literature on economic institutions. Given that background, I can think of no collection or essays that frame, illuminate, and probe modern institutional economics as well as does this set. Geoffrey Hodgson, who chose the collection, and the authors of the essays, are to be congratulated and thanked. Richard R. Nelson, Columbia University, US It is now widely acknowledged that institutions are a crucial factor in economic performance. Major developments have been made in our understanding of the nature and evolution of economic institutions in the last few years. This book brings together some key contributions in this area by leading internationally renowned scholars including Paul A. David, Christopher Freeman, Alan P. Kirman, Jan Kregel, Brian J. Loasby, J. Stanley Metcalfe, Bart Nooteboom and Ugo Pagano. This essential reader covers topics such as the relationship between institutions and individuals, institutions and economic development, the nature and role of markets, and the theory of institutional evolution. The book not only outlines cutting-edge developments in the field but also indicates key directions of future research for institutional and evolutionary economics. Vital reading on one of the most dynamic and rapidly growing areas of research today, The Evolution of Economic Institutions will be of great interest to researchers, students and lecturers in economics and business studies.
Book Synopsis Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy by : A. Leijonhufvud
Download or read book Monetary Theory as a Basis for Monetary Policy written by A. Leijonhufvud and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-03-11 with total page 285 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the inflationary 1970s, theoretical work on monetary policy has concentrated almost exclusively on price-level stabilization and the avoidance of nominal shocks. In the aftermath of the collapse of financial bubbles in various parts of the world, the accomplishments and limitations of this dominant approach are debated in this volume edited by Axel Leijonhufvud, with contributions by a number of noted monetary economists, including Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas.
Book Synopsis Lives of the Laureates, fifth edition by : William Breit
Download or read book Lives of the Laureates, fifth edition written by William Breit and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-02-06 with total page 476 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autobiographical accounts by twenty-three Nobel laureates give a picture of the richness of contemporary economic thought and insights into the creative process. Lives of the Laureates offers readers an informal history of modern economic thought as told through autobiographical essays by twenty-three winners of the Nobel Prize in Economics. The essays not only provide unique insights into major economic ideas of our time but also shed light on the processes of intellectual discovery and creativity. This fifth edition adds five recent Nobel laureates to its list of contributors: Vernon L. Smith (2002), Clive W. J. Granger (2003), Edward C. Prescott (2004), Thomas C. Schelling (2005) and Edmund S. Phelps (2006). Also included is the editors' revised afterword, “Lessons from the Laureates.” Lives of the Laureates grows out of a continuing lecture series at Trinity University in San Antonio, which invites Nobelists from American universities to describe their evolution as economists in personal as well as technical terms. Each laureate achieves the goal of clarity without sacrificing inherently difficult content: Kenneth Arrow makes grasping the essentials of his “impossibility theorem” painless; Lawrence Klein clearly presents what goes into econometric “model building”; George Stigler masterfully describes his “information theory”; and so on. These lectures demonstrate the richness and diversity of contemporary economic thought. The reader will find that paths cross in unexpected ways—that disparate thinkers were often influenced by the same teachers—and that luck as well as hard work plays a role in the process of scientific discovery.
Book Synopsis Lives of the Laureates, seventh edition by : Roger W. Spencer
Download or read book Lives of the Laureates, seventh edition written by Roger W. Spencer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2024-04-30 with total page 481 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autobiographical accounts by Nobel laureates reflect the richness and diversity of contemporary economic thought and offer insights into the creative process; with six new laureates. Lives of the Laureates offers readers an informal history of modern economic thought as told through autobiographical essays by thirty-two Nobel Prize laureates in economics. The essays not only provide unique insights into major economic ideas of our time but also shed light on the processes of intellectual discovery and creativity. The accounts are accessible and engaging, achieving clarity without sacrificing inherently difficult content. This seventh edition adds six Nobelists to its pages: Roger B. Myerson (co-recipient in 2007) describes his evolution as a game theorist and his application of game theory to issues that ranged from electoral systems to perverse incentives; Thomas J. Sargent (co-recipient in 2011), recounts the development of the rational expectations model, which fundamentally changed the policy implications for macroeconomic models; Amartya Sen (recipient in 1998) reflects on his use of a bicycle (later donated to the Nobel Museum) to collect data early in his career; A. Michael Spence (co-recipient in 2001) describes, among other things, his whiplash-inducing first foray into teaching an undergraduate class; Christopher A. Sims (co-recipient in 2011) discusses his “non-Nobel” research; and Alvin E. Roth (co-recipient in 2012) chronicles the “three insurrections” he has witnessed in mainstream economics. Lives of the Laureates grows out of a continuing lecture series at Trinity University in San Antonio, which invites Nobelists from American universities to describe their evolution as economists in personal as well as technical terms. The Laureates W. Arthur Lewis, Lawrence R. Klein, Kenneth J. Arrow, Paul A. Samuelson, Milton Friedman, George J. Stigler, James Tobin, Franco Modigliani, James M. Buchanan, Robert M. Solow, William F. Sharpe, Ronald H. Coase, Douglass C. North, John C. Harsanyi, Myron S. Scholes, Gary S. Becker, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Vernon L. Smith, Clive W. J. Granger, Edward C. Prescott, Thomas C. Schelling, Edmund S. Phelps, Eric S. Maskin, Joseph E. Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Peter A. Diamond, Roger B. Myerson, Thomas J. Sargent, Amartya Sen, A. Michael Spence, Christopher A. Sims, Alvin E. Roth
Book Synopsis Economic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity by : Uwe Cantner
Download or read book Economic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity written by Uwe Cantner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The twelve papers in this collection grew out of the workshop on "Eco nomic Evolution, Learning, and Complexity" held at the University of Augsburg, Augsburg, Germany on May 23-25, 1997. The Augsburg workshop was the second of two events in the Euroconference Series on Evolutionary Economics, the first of which was held in Athens, Greece in September 1993. A special issue of the Journal of Evolutionary Econo mics (1993(4)) edited by Yannis Katsoulacos on "Evolutionary and Neo classical Perspectives on Market Structure and Economic Growth" con tains selected papers from the Athens conference. The Athens conference explored neoclassical and evolutionary perspectives on technological competition and increasing returns. It helped to identify the dis tinguishing features of evolutionary scholarship. The Augsburg workshop was more oriented toward exploring methodological issues in evolutiona of the papers employed new me ry and related scholarship. A number thods, such as genetic programming and experimental analysis, some developed new econometric techniques or raised new empirical issues in evolutionary economics, and some relied on simulation techniques. Twelve papers covering a range of areas were selected for this collection. The papers address central issues in evolutionary and Schumpeterian accounts of industrial competition, learning, and innovation.
Book Synopsis Fortune Tellers by : Walter Friedman
Download or read book Fortune Tellers written by Walter Friedman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-12-01 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A gripping history of the pioneers who sought to use science to predict financial markets The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men who defined this first wave of economic fortune tellers, men such as Roger Babson, Irving Fisher, John Moody, C. J. Bullock, and Warren Persons. They competed to sell their distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses, and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to predict the devastating crash of 1929. Walter Friedman paints vivid portraits of entrepreneurs who shared a belief that the rational world of numbers and reason could tame--or at least foresee--the irrational gyrations of the market. Despite their failures, this first generation of economic forecasters helped to make the prediction of economic trends a central economic activity, and shed light on the mechanics of financial markets by providing a range of statistics and information about individual firms. They also raised questions that are still relevant today. What is science and what is merely guesswork in forecasting? What motivates people to buy forecasts? Does the act of forecasting set in motion unforeseen events that can counteract the forecast made? Masterful and compelling, Fortune Tellers highlights the risk and uncertainty that are inherent to capitalism itself.
Book Synopsis Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities by : Robert Franzese
Download or read book Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities written by Robert Franzese and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important collection presents an authoritative selection of papers on "Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities" This publication is intent on building bridges between economics and the other social sciences. The focus is on the interaction between monetary policy and wage bargaining institutions in European Monetary Union (EMU). Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities is written by acknowledged experts in their field. The outcome is a broad analysis of the interactions of labour market actors and central banks. The volume addresses the recent changes in EMU. An important theoretical, empirical, and policy-relevant conclusion that emerges from Institutional Conflicts and Complementarities is that even perfectly credible monetary conservatism has long-term real effects, even in equilibrium models with fully rational expectations.
