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Individual Expectations And Aggregate Outcomes
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Book Synopsis Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Expectations by : Ruediger Bachmann
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Book Synopsis Microfoundations by : Maarten Janssen
Download or read book Microfoundations written by Maarten Janssen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-07-26 with total page 209 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: All economists are familiar with the division of the subject into microeconomics and macroeconomics. However, few economists are able to give an accurate account of what distinguishes micro and macro. The increasing interest in the `microfoundations of macroeconomics' has typically attracted those who feel that economics is about the rational behaviour of individuals and who regard macro propositions as a consequence of the intentions of individuals. As a result, `microfoundations' have come to be synonymous with theories of individual behaviour. However, Maarten Janssen argues that it is microeconomics' concern with the functioning of markets that underlies theories of microfoundations. This claim is substantiated by an analysis of the aggregation problem, of the foundations of equilibrium theories, of the rational expectations hypothesis, and of a model from the New Keynesian literature.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics by : George W. Evans
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Book Synopsis Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments by : Peter Heemeijer
Download or read book Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments written by Peter Heemeijer and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2009 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes
Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
Book Synopsis Imperfect Knowledge Economics by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Imperfect Knowledge Economics written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2023-09-26 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent behavioral models of the market are no less mechanistic than their conventional counterparts: they aim to generate exact predictions of "irrational" human behavior. Frydman and Goldberg offer a long-overdue response to the shortcomings of conventional economic models. Drawing attention to the inherent limits of economists' knowledge, they introduce a new approach to economic analysis: Imperfect Knowledge Economics (IKE). IKE rejects exact quantitative predictions of individual decisions and market outcomes in favor of mathematical models that generate only qualitative predictions of economic change. Using the foreign exchange market as a testing ground for IKE, this book sheds new light on exchange-rate and risk-premium movements, which have confounded conventional models for decades. Offering a fresh way to think about markets and representing a potential turning point in economics, Imperfect Knowledge Economics will be essential reading for economists, policymakers, and professional investors.
Book Synopsis A Guide to Modern Economics by : Michael Bleaney
Download or read book A Guide to Modern Economics written by Michael Bleaney and published by Routledge. This book was released on 1996-07-04 with total page 563 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work provides a valuable review of the most important developments in economic theory and application over the last decade. Comprising twenty-seven specially commissioned overviews, the volume presents a comprehensive and student-friendly guide to contemporary economics. Previously published by Routledge as part of the Companion to Contemporary Economic Thought, these essays are made available here for the first time in a concise paperback edition. A Guide to Modern Economics will be a valuable guide to all those who wish to familiarize themselves with the most recent developments in the discipline.
Book Synopsis Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics by : Philippe Aghion
Download or read book Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics written by Philippe Aghion and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-01-12 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macroeconomics would not be what it is today without Edmund Phelps. This book assembles the field's leading figures to highlight the continuing influence of his ideas from the past four decades. Addressing the most important current debates in macroeconomic theory, it focuses on the rates at which new technologies arise and information about markets is dispersed, information imperfections, and the heterogeneity of beliefs as determinants of an economy's performance. The contributions, which represent a breadth of contemporary theoretical approaches, cover topics including the real effects of monetary disturbances, difficulties in expectations formation, structural factors in unemployment, and sources of technical progress. Based on an October 2001 conference honoring Phelps, this incomparable volume provides the most comprehensive and authoritative account in years of the present state of macroeconomics while also pointing to its future. The fifteen chapters are by the editors and by Daron Acemoglu, Jess Benhabib, Guillermo A. Calvo, Oya Celasun, Michael D. Goldberg, Bruce Greenwald, James J. Heckman, Bart Hobijn, Peter Howitt, Hehui Jin, Charles I. Jones, Michael Kumhof, Mordecai Kurz, David Laibson, Lars Ljungqvist, N. Gregory Mankiw, Dale T. Mortensen, Maurizio Motolese, Stephen Nickell, Luca Nunziata, Wolfgang Ochel, Christopher A. Pissarides, Glenda Quintini, Ricardo Reis, Andrea Repetto, Thomas J. Sargent, Jeremy Tobacman, and Gianluca Violante. Commenting are Olivier J. Blanchard, Jean-Paul Fitoussi, Mark Gertler, Robert E. Hall, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., David H. Papell, Robert A. Pollak, Robert M. Solow, Nancy L. Stokey, and Lars E. O. Svensson. Also included are reflections by Phelps, a preface by Paul A. Samuelson, and the editors' introduction.
Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Expectations by : Roman Frydman
Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Macroeconomics by : Michael Woodford
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by Michael Woodford and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution by : Thorsten Hens
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Markets: Dynamics and Evolution written by Thorsten Hens and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 607 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The models of portfolio selection and asset price dynamics in this volume seek to explain the market dynamics of asset prices. Presenting a range of analytical, empirical, and numerical techniques as well as several different modeling approaches, the authors depict the state of debate on the market selection hypothesis. By explicitly assuming the heterogeneity of investors, they present models that are descriptive and normative as well, making the volume useful for both finance theorists and financial practitioners. - Explains the market dynamics of asset prices, offering insights about asset management approaches - Assumes a heterogeneity of investors that yields descriptive and normative models of portfolio selections and asset pricing dynamics
Book Synopsis Analytical Political Economy by : Roberto Veneziani
Download or read book Analytical Political Economy written by Roberto Veneziani and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-04-09 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering a unique picture of recent developments in a range of non-conventional theoretical approaches in economics, this book introduces readers to the study of Analytical Political Economy and the changes within the subject. Includes a wide range of topics and theoretical approaches that are critically and thoroughly reviewed Contributions within the book are written according to the highest standards of rigor and clarity that characterize academic work Provides comprehensive and well-organized surveys of cutting-edge empirical and theoretical work covering an exceptionally wide range of areas and fields Topics include macroeconomic theories of growth and distribution; agent-based and stock-flow consistent models; financialization and Marxian price and value theory Investigates exploitation theory; trade theory; the role of expectations and ‘animal spirits’ on macroeconomic performance as well as empirical research in Marxian economics
Author :George M. von Furstenberg Publisher :Springer Science & Business Media ISBN 13 :9401578737 Total Pages :493 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (15 download)
Book Synopsis Acting under Uncertainty by : George M. von Furstenberg
Download or read book Acting under Uncertainty written by George M. von Furstenberg and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.
Book Synopsis Experiments in Macroeconomics by : John Duffy
Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.
Book Synopsis Advances in Artificial Economics by : Frédéric Amblard
Download or read book Advances in Artificial Economics written by Frédéric Amblard and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-11-08 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book presents a peer-reviewed collection of papers presented during the 10th issue of the Artificial Economics conference, addressing a variety of issues related to macroeconomics, industrial organization, networks, management and finance, as well as purely methodological issues. The field of artificial economics covers a broad range of methodologies relying on computer simulations in order to model and study the complexity of economic and social phenomena. The grounding principle of artificial economics is the analysis of aggregate properties of simulated systems populated by interacting adaptive agents that are equipped with heterogeneous individual behavioral rules. These macroscopic properties are neither foreseen nor intended by the artificial agents but generated collectively by them. They are emerging characteristics of such artificially simulated systems.
