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Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy
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Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by : Patricia C. O'Brien
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Forgotten Books. This book was released on 2017-12-07 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Excerpt from Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts: A Nine-Industry Study Current databases of analysts' forecasts of corporate earnings include predictions from thousands of individuals employed at hundreds of financial service institutions. The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether it is possible to distinguish forecasters with superior ability on the basis of ex Egg; forecast accuracy from panel data. About the Publisher Forgotten Books publishes hundreds of thousands of rare and classic books. Find more at www.forgottenbooks.com This book is a reproduction of an important historical work. Forgotten Books uses state-of-the-art technology to digitally reconstruct the work, preserving the original format whilst repairing imperfections present in the aged copy. In rare cases, an imperfection in the original, such as a blemish or missing page, may be replicated in our edition. We do, however, repair the vast majority of imperfections successfully; any imperfections that remain are intentionally left to preserve the state of such historical works.
Book Synopsis FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES by : PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN
Download or read book FORECAST ACCURACY OF INDIVIDUAL ANALYSTS IN NINE INDUSTRIES written by PATRICIA C. O'BRIEN and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by : Patricia C O'Brien
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C O'Brien and published by Legare Street Press. This book was released on 2023-07-18 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a detailed analysis of the accuracy of forecasts made by individual analysts across nine different industries. It explores the factors that contribute to forecast accuracy and provides insights into how these factors can be used to improve forecasting performance. The author, Patricia C. O'Brien, is a well-respected economist and her research has significant implications for businesses and investors who rely on forecasts in their decision-making processes. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the "public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Book Synopsis Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : James Claus
Download or read book Individual Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by James Claus and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts by : Patricia C. O'Brien
Download or read book Forecast Accuracy of Individual Analysts written by Patricia C. O'Brien and published by Nabu Press. This book was released on 2014-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a reproduction of a book published before 1923. This book may have occasional imperfections such as missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. that were either part of the original artifact, or were introduced by the scanning process. We believe this work is culturally important, and despite the imperfections, have elected to bring it back into print as part of our continuing commitment to the preservation of printed works worldwide. We appreciate your understanding of the imperfections in the preservation process, and hope you enjoy this valuable book.
Book Synopsis Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy by : Wenjuan Xie
Download or read book Individual Differences and Analyst Forecast Accuracy written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study examines the impact of unidentifiable individual differences among financial analysts on the cross section of their earnings forecast accuracy. Various psychological factors, such as decision style and personality traits, are documented to impact individuals' decision making. However, analysts' individual differences in such psychological factors are not captured by identifiable personal attributes employed in finance literature, such as years of experience. In this paper, we employ the concept of analyst fixed effects to control for unidentifiable individual differences. Examining the factors related to forecast accuracy, we document that controlling for these unidentifiable analyst-specific effects improves model fitting, and changes the explanatory power of some of the traditionally used independent variables in the literature. We confirm that the analyst's firm-specific experience, the intensity of following that a firm receives, and the forecast horizon are all significantly and consistently related to forecast accuracy. However, we find that analyst general experience and coverage complexity lose explanatory power when individual differences are controlled for. Furthermore, we document that analyst general experience is not monotonically associated with better accuracy, and that analysts only benefit from increased general experience during the early to middle stages of their career. Finally, we observe that when analysts' individual differences are controlled for, the boldness of a forecast revision is no longer a significant determinant of the improvement of accuracy. This is one of the first studies to highlight the necessity of recognizing individual differences among financial analysts. We argue that this treatment advances the literature of analyst forecast performance, and closely relates financial agents' decision making to psychology theories of decision style and personality.
Book Synopsis Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast by : Wenjuan Xie
Download or read book Three Essays on Analyst Earnings Forecast written by Wenjuan Xie and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 138 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Tanja Klettke
Download or read book New Determinants of Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Tanja Klettke and published by Springer Science & Business. This book was released on 2014-04-28 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial analysts provide information in their research reports and thereby help forming expectations of a firm’s future business performance. Thus, it is essential to recognize analysts who provide the most precise forecasts and the accounting literature identifies characteristics that help finding the most accurate analysts. Tanja Klettke detects new relationships and identifies two new determinants of earnings forecast accuracy. These new determinants are an analyst’s “general forecast effort” and the “number of supplementary forecasts”. Within two comprehensive empirical investigations she proves these measures’ power to explain accuracy differences. Tanja Klettke’s research helps investors and researchers to identify more accurate earnings forecasts.
Book Synopsis How Important is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy? by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book How Important is Past Analyst Forecast Accuracy? written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 6 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Wall Street Journal rates analysts on the basis of past earnings forecast accuracy. These analyst ratings are important to practitioners who believe that past accuracy portends future accuracy. An alternative way to assess the likelihood of quot;morequot; or quot;lessquot; accurate forecasts in the future is to model the analyst characteristics related to the accuracy of individual analysts' earnings forecasts. No evidence yet exists, however, as to whether an analyst characteristics model is better than a past accuracy model for distinguishing more accurate from less accurate earnings forecasters. I show that a simple model of past accuracy performs as well for this purpose as a more complex model based on analyst characteristics. The findings are robust to annual and quarterly forecasts and pertain to estimation and prediction tests. The evidence suggests that practitioners' focus on past accuracy is not misplaced: It is as important as five analyst characteristics combined.
Book Synopsis Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations by : Sundaresh Ramnath
Download or read book Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and published by Now Publishers Inc. This book was released on 2008 with total page 125 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Book Synopsis The Characteristics of Individual Analysts' Forecasts in Europe by : Guido Bolliger
Download or read book The Characteristics of Individual Analysts' Forecasts in Europe written by Guido Bolliger and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Firm-specific Information Environment and Analyst Forecast by : Wei Hsu (Ph.D.)
Download or read book Firm-specific Information Environment and Analyst Forecast written by Wei Hsu (Ph.D.) and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 84 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I examine how firm-specific private and public information affect analyst forecast revisions. I find that when managers easily beat (struggle to meet) the consensus forecasts in the previous quarter, financial analysts revise their earnings forecasts upward (downward). The revision magnitudes are higher when there is more private information. Similarly, I find that when managers provide upward (downward) earnings guidance, analysts revise their forecasts upward (downward) more when there is more private information. In contrast, the revision magnitudes are lower when there is more public information. Additionally, I find that the magnitudes of analysts' downward revisions increase with private information prior to the stock option grant dates. I attribute these results to the analysts' dependence on managers in gleaning relevant private information. The effect of private information is smaller for firms covered by star analysts, consistent with star analysts acting as sophisticated skeptics and being more confident in their forecasts than other analysts. Further, for well-governed firms, upward revisions for positive earnings surprises are smaller when there is more private information. This is consistent with stronger governance attenuating analysts' concerns about firms' earnings quality, which in turn increases their reliance on public earnings numbers and reduces their need to accommodate managers for private information. Finally, I find that private information is negatively associated with target price forecast accuracy, and positively associated with target price forecast optimism. These results suggest that greater information asymmetry adversely affects forecast accuracy and creates incentives for analysts to appease managers to access private information.
Book Synopsis The Effect of Industry Diversification on Consensus and Individual Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by : Kimberly Dunn
Download or read book The Effect of Industry Diversification on Consensus and Individual Analysts' Earnings Forecasts written by Kimberly Dunn and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the effects of company diversification and analyst diversification on consensus and individual analysts' earnings forecasts. Company diversification is measured both as the number of segments reported by a company and as an entropy measure which decomposes the total diversification into an unrelated and a related component. For the consensus forecast analysis, we examine the effect of these variables both on forecast accuracy and inter-analyst earnings forecast disagreement. For the individual analyst forecast analysis, we examine the effect of the number of business segments followed by an analyst and analyst diversification on individual analyst forecast accuracy. We develop a new measure of individual analyst's diversification which takes into consideration the business segments of all companies followed by an analyst, and its interaction with the business segments of the company whose earnings are being forecasted. The results of our study show that as the level of a company's total diversification increases, analysts are less accurate in their earnings forecasts and have more inter-analyst disagreement. Analysts are less accurate and have more disagreement as unrelated diversification increases. A company's related diversification has no significant impact on these variables. For both forecast accuracy and inter-analyst disagreement, the impact of a unit of unrelated diversification is significantly higher than that of the impact of a unit of related diversification. For individual analysts' earnings forecasts, as the number of business segments followed by an analyst increases and as his level of diversification increases, his earnings forecast accuracy significantly declines. The results of our study have implications for researchers who use analysts? earnings forecasts in their studies, investors who use these forecasts for company valuation and for brokerage firms in evaluating individual analysts.
Book Synopsis Individual-Analyst Characteristics and Forecast Error by : Hiromichi Tamura
Download or read book Individual-Analyst Characteristics and Forecast Error written by Hiromichi Tamura and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of the study reported here was to investigate how characteristics of analysts affect their forecast errors. Previous research has found positive serial correlation in forecast errors, which can be attributed to underreaction to new information, especially to bad news. The relationship between an analyst's behavior and that analyst's characteristics is not clear, however, because most previous work was based solely on consensus estimates. By using detailed historical data, I found a stronger serial correlation among the herd-to-consensus analysts (that is, the group with a small average distance between their forecasts and the consensus forecast) than among other analysts. Moreover, average distance to consensus itself has a positive serial correlation, and it may be attributed to an analyst's personality (optimistic or pessimistic). I found strong positive serial correlation in the average distance to consensus among the herd-to-consensus analysts. These results show that herd-to-consensus analysts submit earnings estimates that are not only close to the consensus but are also strongly affected by their personalities.
Book Synopsis Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy by : Sebastian Gell
Download or read book Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy written by Sebastian Gell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-03-26 with total page 144 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
Book Synopsis Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts? by : Kathryn Brightbill
Download or read book Do Analyst Teams Issue Higher Quality Forecasts? written by Kathryn Brightbill and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite significant regulatory and academic interest in sell-side analyst forecasts and an extensive literature demonstrating the impact of teamwork in general, we lack evidence of the effect of teamwork on analyst forecasts. In 2005 analyst teams issued nearly three-fourths of analyst reports for a sample of 89 large, heavily followed companies. Over a twelve-year period 86 of those companies had more reports issued by analyst teams than by individual analysts. Using a hand-collected sample of more than 17,000 analyst reports, I document that forecasts issued by analyst teams systematically differ from the forecasts of individual analysts in ways predicted by team literature. I find that prior to the year 2000 analyst teams issue forecasts that are less accurate and more biased than forecasts issued by individual analysts. Beginning in 2000, the relative benefit of analyst teamwork strengthens, consistent with changes due to Regulation Fair Disclosure, brokerage closures, and other regulatory interventions. In addition I find that, within company-year, team-issued forecasts are less pessimistically biased but not less optimistically biased than the forecasts issued by individual analysts. Lastly, the benefits of teamwork vary with the size of the team and over the life of the team, following an inverted u-shaped pattern. My results inform regulators as they consider factors that impact analyst forecast accuracy and bias.
Book Synopsis Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast by : Lawrence D. Brown
Download or read book Creating a 'Smart' Conditional Consensus Forecast written by Lawrence D. Brown and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study examined analyst forecasts of 26 macroeconomic statistics for August 1998 through March 2007. The four research questions were, (1) Does forecast accuracy persist? (2) What are the determinants of such persistence? (3) Do analysts who exhibit these characteristics make more accurate forecasts than the simple consensus? (4) Is a smart consensus that is based on individuals exhibiting these characteristics more accurate than the simple consensus? It was shown that analyst forecast accuracy persists and is determined by long-term past accuracy and the analyst's overall ability in forecasting all statistics.
