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Income Uncertainty And Household Savings In China
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Book Synopsis Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China by : Mr.Marcos Chamon
Download or read book Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China written by Mr.Marcos Chamon and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-12-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-profile of savings.
Book Synopsis Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China by : Marcos Chamon
Download or read book Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China written by Marcos Chamon and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China's household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped during the 2000s. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-saving profile.
Book Synopsis Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China by : Marcos Chamon
Download or read book Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China written by Marcos Chamon and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies by : Ms.Longmei Zhang
Download or read book China’s High Savings: Drivers, Prospects, and Policies written by Ms.Longmei Zhang and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-11 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s high national savings rate—one of the highest in the world—is at the heart of its external/internal imbalances. High savings finance elevated investment when held domestically, or lead to large external imbalances when they flow abroad. Today, high savings mostly emanate from the household sector, resulting from demographic changes induced by the one-child policy and the transformation of the social safety net and job security that occured during the transition from planned to market economy. Housing reform and rising income inequality also contribute to higher savings. Moving forward, demographic changes will put downward pressure on savings. Policy efforts in strengthening the social safety net and reducing income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and boost consumption.
Book Synopsis Urban and Rural Household Savings in China by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Urban and Rural Household Savings in China written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-03-18 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Household savings behavior in China during the past 30 years has been studied by using econometric models with the time-varying-parameter technique. The rural sector and the urban sector are investigated separately. In comparison to previous studies on the same subject, the estimated models of the current study are more robust, and the results of the models are much more in line with results of similar studies of other countries.
Book Synopsis Explaining China's Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income by : Jahangir Aziz
Download or read book Explaining China's Low Consumption: The Neglected Role of Household Income written by Jahangir Aziz and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Chinese government has recently focused on the need to increase consumption to rebalance the economy. A widely held view is that despite China's remarkably high growth, the share of consumption in total expenditure has been low and declining due to high and rising saving rate of Chinese households as uncertainty over provision of pensions, and healthcare and education costs have increased since the mid-1990s. This paper finds that the rise in saving rate has been a minor factor. Much larger has been the role of the declining share of household income in national income, which has occurred across-the-board in wages, investment income, and government transfers. The paper finds that financial sector weaknesses, by restricting firms' access to bank financing for working capital, have played quantitatively a major role in keeping wage and investment income shares low and on a declining trend.
Book Synopsis Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China by : Mr.David Coady
Download or read book Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China written by Mr.David Coady and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-03-01 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper shows that increasing government social expenditures can make a substantive contribution to increasing household consumption in China. The paper first undertakes an empirical study of the relationship between the savings rate and social expenditures for a panel of OECD countries and provides illustrative estimates of their implications for China. It then applies a generational accounting framework to Chinese household income survey data. This analysis suggests that a sustained 1 percent of GDP increase in public expenditures, distributed equally across education, health, and pensions, would result in a permanent increase the household consumption ratio of 11⁄4 percentage points of GDP.
Book Synopsis Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings by : Zheng Liu (Economist)
Download or read book Job Uncertainty and Chinese Household Savings written by Zheng Liu (Economist) and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Capitalizing China by : Joseph P. H. Fan
Download or read book Capitalizing China written by Joseph P. H. Fan and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: La 4e de couverture indique : "Despite a vast accumulation of private capital, China is not embracing capitalism. Deceptively familiar capitalist features disguise the profoundly unfamiliar foundations of "market socialism with Chinese characteristics." The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), by controlling the career advancement of all senior personnel in all regulatory agencies, all state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and virtually all major financial institutions state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and senior Party positions in all but the smallest non-SOE enterprises, retains sole possession of Lenin's Commanding Heights. The chapters in this volume examine China's high savings rate, banking system, financial markets, financial regulations, corporate governance, and public finances; and consider policy alternatives the CCP might consider if its goal is China's elevation into the ranks of high income countries."
Book Synopsis Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? by : Marcos Chamon
Download or read book Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? written by Marcos Chamon and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-06-01 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to ¼ of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain the postponing of consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates virtually no consumption smoothing over the life cycle. Saving rates have increased across all demographic groups, although the age-profile of savings has an unusual U-shaped pattern, with saving rates being the highest among the youngest and oldest households in recent years. These patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care.
Book Synopsis Determinants of China’s Private Consumption by : Kai Guo
Download or read book Determinants of China’s Private Consumption written by Kai Guo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-04-01 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper gauges the key determinants of China's private consumption in relation to GDP using data on the Chinese economy and evidence from other countries' experiences. The results suggest there is nothing "special" about consumption in China. Rather, the challenge is to explain why the conditioning variables-notably a low level of service sector employment, the level of financial sector development, and low real interest rates-are so different in China relative to other countries' historical experience. The results suggest, in particular, that efforts to further raise household income and the share of employment in the services sector, as well as to develop capital markets, including liberalizing interest rates and creating alternative savings instruments are likely to have the biggest impact on consumption. Other mechanisms to raise household income and mitigate household-specific risk (such as by improving the healthcare and pension systems) also have a role to play.
Book Synopsis Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? by : Marcos Chamon
Download or read book Why are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising? written by Marcos Chamon and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual absence of consumption smoothing over the life cycle. Saving rates have increased across all demographic groups although the age profile of savings has an unusual pattern in recent years, with younger and older households having relatively high saving rates. We argue that these patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care. These effects and precautionary motives may have been amplified by financial underdevelopment, as reflected in constraints on borrowing against future income and low returns on financial assets.
Book Synopsis China's High Saving Rate by : Guonan Ma
Download or read book China's High Saving Rate written by Guonan Ma and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The saving rate of China is high from many perspectives - historical experience, international standards and the predictions of economic models. Furthermore, the average saving rate has been rising over time, with much of the increase taking place in the 2000s, so that the aggregate marginal propensity to save exceeds 50%. What really sets China apart from the rest of the world is that the rising aggregate saving has reflected high savings rates in all three sectors - corporate, household and government. Moreover, adjusting for inflation alters interpretations of the time path of the propensity to save in the three sectors. Our evidence casts doubt on the proposition that distortions and subsidies account for China's rising corporate profits and high saving rate. Instead, we argue that tough corporate restructuring (including pension and home ownership reforms), a marked Lewis-model transformation process (where the average wage exceeds the marginal product of labour in the subsistence sector) and rapid ageing process have all played more important roles. While such structural factors suggest that the Chinese saving rate will peak in the medium term, policies for job creation and a stronger social safety net would assist the transition to more balanced domestic demand.
Book Synopsis Essays on Household Saving Rates by : Yi Chen
Download or read book Essays on Household Saving Rates written by Yi Chen and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation is devoted to understanding household saving rates of the two largest countries in the world - China and the United States. The first two chapters explain why the Chinese elderly save at extraordinarily high rates and the third chapter explains why the U.S. personal saving rate has been falling since 1980's. Chapter 1 explores the potential explanation of the high saving rates of the Chinese elderly. The high saving rate of China has attracted global attention. Furthermore, the saving rates of the Chinese elderly are especially high. Understanding why the elderly in China save at high rates is important for two reasons: (1) it partially explains the high aggregate saving rate in China, and (2) the fact that the elderly save more than the middle-aged contradicts the predictions of the life-cycle model. In this chapter, I present evidence that pension income is the primary explanation for the high saving rates of elderly Chinese households. I provide this evidence in two steps. First, I document three stylized facts that are consistent with this hypothesis: (1) saving rates are higher in years with higher pensions, (2) saving rates are higher for those with more generous pension plans, and (3) policy reforms that exogenously increase pensions also increase saving rates. However, a higher pension income on its own cannot explain the entire pattern because a household can simultaneously adjust its consumption. Therefore, in the second step, I demonstrate that concerns regarding future medical expenditures and bequest motives can explain why households do not increase their consumption commensurate with increases in pension income. In Chapter 2, I build and estimate a dynamic life cycle model for two purposes. The first is to quantify the effect of pension income. The second purpose is to carry out counterfactual policy simulations. The model is a standard life-cycle model with three main components. First, pension income is properly modeled to capture the increase observed in the data. The second part of the model is about uncertainty. In the model, I cover income uncertainty, health status and medical expenditures as the main source of uncertainty for the elderly. Finally, individuals have bequest motives. I estimate the model using the method of simulated moments. The estimation results show that it is possible to match the data with reasonable parameters. It is noteworthy that the estimated degree of relative risk aversion for the Chinese elderly is similar to that of U.S. population in other studies. This implies when factors including pension income, medical expenditures and bequest motives are properly taken into account, it is not necessary to assume Chinese elderly to be highly risk averse to explain their high saving rates. With the model, I am able to carry out various policy simulations. The most interesting simulation is if the Chinese pension and economy growth rate becomes similar to those in the United States, the saving rates of the Chinese elderly will fall to the level of the U.S. Chapter 3 is a joint work with Maurizio Mazzocco and Bela Szemely. In this chapter we provide evidence that most of the decline in the U.S. personal saving rate from 9 percent in the early eighties to 2 percent in 2007 can be explained by the steep increase in health expenditure experienced by the U.S. economy during the same period. The most convincing evidence is provided using the FDA approval of new drugs as a source of exogenous variation in medical expenses. Employing this source of variation, we find that a $1$ percentage point increase in health expenditure generates a decline in the U.S. saving rate that is between $0.58$ and $0.67$ percentage points. Using this result, we calculate that the rise in health expenditure explains about 83 percent of the drop in the U.S. saving rate. To evaluate whether households changed their consumption decisions to mitigate the effect of higher medical expenses, we develop a stylized model of household's and government's decisions. Using the model jointly with our empirical results, we find that the households' response to the rise in health expenses was negligible. This is why the saving rate dropped by a significant amount. Finally, with the objective of better understanding why households did not respond, we provide evidence on how the increase in medical expenditure was funded. We find that it was paid almost exclusively by an increase in government debt, a reduction in other government expenses, and an increase in employer contributions to health funds. The main implication of these findings is that the households were barely affected by the rise in health expenditure. The households' negligible response was, therefore, rational.
Book Synopsis Financial Development and Mobilisation of Household Savings in China by : Xu Lilai
Download or read book Financial Development and Mobilisation of Household Savings in China written by Xu Lilai and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Rising Inequality in China by : Shi Li
Download or read book Rising Inequality in China written by Shi Li and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-10-31 with total page 531 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines the evolution of economic inequality in China from 2002 to 2007; a sequel to Inequality and Public Policy in China (2008).
Book Synopsis Income Uncertainty, Consumer Durables Investments, and Home Production by : Yabin Wang
Download or read book Income Uncertainty, Consumer Durables Investments, and Home Production written by Yabin Wang and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We investigate the effect of uncertainty on home durable purchase decisions, and empirically evaluate the efficacy of consumer durable policies under uncertainty. A model of lumpy home capital adjustment shows that elevated uncertainty leads households to adopt a cautionary perspective and postpone their capital adjustment. We test this prediction using microevidence from China where both uncertainty and home production are substantial. We exploit a wide-scale rebate program funded by the Chinese government as a natural experiment, and examine the impact on household investment. We find strong, significant, and robust evidence that greater income uncertainty inhibits durable adjustment. Our findings highlight the impediment that income uncertainty poses to investment in home durables, which are often considered as “engines of liberation” in emerging economies.
