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Author : Christiaan Heij
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (476 download)
Download or read book Improved Construction of Diffusion Indexes for Macroeconomic Forecasting written by Christiaan Heij and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Kajal Lahiri
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521438582
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (385 download)
Download or read book Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Author : Anindya Banerjee
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (225 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Diffusion Indexes in Short Samples with Structural Change written by Anindya Banerjee and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Benedikt Schwab
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Shrinkage Methods, Diffusion Indexes, and Model Combinations written by Benedikt Schwab and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : James H. Stock
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 80 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (243 download)
Download or read book Diffusion Indexes written by James H. Stock and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 80 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers forecasting a single time series using more predictors than there are time series observations. The approach is to construct a relatively few indexes, akin to diffusion indexes, which are weighted averages of the predictors, using an approximate dynamic factor model. Estimation is discussed for balanced and unbalanced panels. The estimated dynamic factors are (uniformly) consistent, even in the presence of time varying parameters and/or data contamination, and forecasts based on the estimated factors are efficient. In an application to forecasting U.S. inflation and industrial production using 224 monthly time series, these forecasts outperform various state-of-the-art benchmark models.
Author : Louis Brent Benton
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (468 download)
Download or read book An investigation into the construction and reliability of diffusion indexes in business-cycle forecasting written by Louis Brent Benton and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Nii Ayi Armah
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (314 download)
Download or read book Seeing Inside the Black Box written by Nii Ayi Armah and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In economics, common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. For this reason, many authors have used estimated factors in the construction of prediction models. In this paper, we begin by surveying the extant literature on diffusion indexes. We then outline a number of approaches to the selection of factor proxies (observed variables that proxy unobserved estimated factors) using the statistics developed in Bai and Ng (2006a,b). Our approach to factor proxy selection is examined via a small Monte Carlo experiment, where evidence supporting our proposed methodology is presented, and via a large set of prediction experiments using the panel dataset of Stock and Watson (2005). One of our main empirical findings is that our "smoothed" approaches to factor proxy selection appear to yield predictions that are often superior not only to a benchmark factor model, but also to simple linear time series models which are generally difficult to beat in forecasting competitions. In some sense, by using our approach to predictive factor proxy selection, one is able to open up the "black box" often associated with factor analysis, and to identify actual variables that can serve as primitive building blocks for (prediction) models of a host of macroeconomic variables, and that can also serve as policy instruments, for example. Our findings suggest that important observable variables include various S&P500 variables, including stock price indices and dividend series; a 1-year Treasury bond rate; various housing activity variables; industrial production; and exchange rates.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 914 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book Tourism Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 914 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Edouard Challe
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262549298
Total Pages : 361 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (625 download)
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Author : Hans-Dietrich Haasis
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3540325395
Total Pages : 818 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (43 download)
Download or read book Operations Research Proceedings 2005 written by Hans-Dietrich Haasis and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-09-12 with total page 818 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume contains a selection of 128 papers presented in lectures during the international scientific symposium "Operations Research 2005" (OR 2005) held at the University of Bremen, September 7-9, 2005. This international conference took place under the auspices of the German Operations Research Society (GOR). The symposium had about 600 participants from countries all over the world. It attracted academics and practitioners working in various fields of Operations Research and provided them with the most recent advances in Operations Research as well as related areas in Economics, Mathematics, and Computer Science including the special interest streams Logistics and New Maritime Businesses. The program consisted of 3 plenary and 15 semi-plenary talks and about 400 contributed presentations selected by the program committee to be presented in 20 sections.
Author : C. James Hueng
Publisher : W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN 13 : 0880996765
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Alternative Economic Indicators written by C. James Hueng and published by W.E. Upjohn Institute. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
Author : Jun Ma
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1461480604
Total Pages : 308 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (614 download)
Download or read book Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models written by Jun Ma and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-09-24 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Nonlinear models have been used extensively in the areas of economics and finance. Recent literature on the topic has shown that a large number of series exhibit nonlinear dynamics as opposed to the alternative--linear dynamics. Incorporating these concepts involves deriving and estimating nonlinear time series models, and these have typically taken the form of Threshold Autoregression (TAR) models, Exponential Smooth Transition (ESTAR) models, and Markov Switching (MS) models, among several others. This edited volume provides a timely overview of nonlinear estimation techniques, offering new methods and insights into nonlinear time series analysis. It features cutting-edge research from leading academics in economics, finance, and business management, and will focus on such topics as Zero-Information-Limit-Conditions, using Markov Switching Models to analyze economics series, and how best to distinguish between competing nonlinear models. Principles and techniques in this book will appeal to econometricians, finance professors teaching quantitative finance, researchers, and graduate students interested in learning how to apply advances in nonlinear time series modeling to solve complex problems in economics and finance.
Author : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781859724361
Total Pages : 314 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (243 download)
Download or read book Business Cycle Indicators written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 314 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Author : Victor Zarnowitz
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226978923
Total Pages : 613 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (269 download)
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1430 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (334 download)
Download or read book Journal of Housing Research written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 1430 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Hans G. Graf
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing USA
ISBN 13 : 0313017417
Total Pages : 264 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Economic Forecasting for Management written by Hans G. Graf and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2002-08-30 with total page 264 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose. This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and—in special cases—cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.
Author : United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Subcommittee on Economic Statistics
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 744 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (319 download)
Download or read book Reports of Federal Reserve Consultant Committees on Economic Statistics written by United States. Congress. Joint Committee on the Economic Report. Subcommittee on Economic Statistics and published by . This book was released on 1955 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Includes Consultant Committee on Savings Statistics report "Savings Statistics", July, 1955. (p. 65-220); Consultant Committee on Consumer Survey Statistics report "Consumer Survey Statistics", July, 1955. (p. 257-372); and Consultant Committee on General Business Expectations report "An Appraisal of Data and Research of Businessmen's Expectations About Outlook and Operating Variables", Sept., 1955. (p. 493-700).
