Identifying Confirmatory Bias In The Field Evidence From A Poll Of Experts

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Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts

Author : Rodney J. Andrews
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (794 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts by : Rodney J. Andrews

Download or read book Identifying confirmatory bias in the field : evidence from a poll of experts written by Rodney J. Andrews and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Laboratory experiments have established the existence of cognitive biases, but their explanatory power in real-world economic settings has been difficult to measure. We estimate the extent of a cognitive bias, confirmatory bias, among experts in a real-world environment. In the Associated Press Top 25 College Football Poll expert pollsters are tasked with assessing team quality, and their beliefs are treated week-to-week with game results that serve as signals about an individual team's quality. We exploit the variation provided by actual game results relative to market expectations to develop a novel regression-discontinuity approach to identify confirmatory bias in this real-world setting. We construct a unique personally-assembled dataset that matches more than twenty years of individual game characteristics to poll results and betting market information, and show that teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations are exchangeable. The likelihood of winning the game, the average number of points scored by teams and their opponents, and even the average week of the season are no different between teams that slightly exceed and barely miss market expectations. Pollsters, however, significantly upgrade their beliefs about a team's quality when a team slightly exceeds market expectations. The effects are sizeable-- nearly half of the voters in the poll rank a team one slot higher when they slightly exceed market expectations; one-fifth of the standard deviation in poll points in a given week can be attributed to confirmatory bias. This type of updating suggests that even when informed agents make repeated decisions they may act in a manner which is consistent with confirmatory bias.

Identifiying Confirmatory Bias in the Field

Author : Rodney J. Andrews
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis Identifiying Confirmatory Bias in the Field by : Rodney J. Andrews

Download or read book Identifiying Confirmatory Bias in the Field written by Rodney J. Andrews and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set

Author : Gideon Keren
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118468392
Total Pages : 1056 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (184 download)

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Book Synopsis The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set by : Gideon Keren

Download or read book The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set written by Gideon Keren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-16 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309142393
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States by : National Research Council

Download or read book Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2009-07-29 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community. The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs. While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.

Practicing Forensic Criminology

Author : Kevin Fox Gotham
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128155965
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Practicing Forensic Criminology by : Kevin Fox Gotham

Download or read book Practicing Forensic Criminology written by Kevin Fox Gotham and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2019-05-29 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Practicing Forensic Criminology draws on examples from actual court cases and expert witness reports and testimony to demonstrate the merits and uses of substantive criminological knowledge in the applied setting of civil law and the courts. Throughout the book, the authors provide a highly readable, informative discussion of how forensic criminologists can apply their research and teaching skills to assist judges and juries in rendering legal decisions. Engaging and lively, the chapters include excerpts from forensic criminological investigations, in-depth discussions of the methodological and analytical bases of these investigations, and important lessons learned from real litigation cases. Case examples are drawn from the forensic realms of premises liability, administrative negligence, workplace violence, wrongful conviction litigation, and litigation involving police departments and corrections facilities. Well referenced and thoroughly researched, Practicing Forensic Criminology serves as an introduction to the vast and heterogeneous field of forensic social science that is rapidly changing and expanding. This unique and original book guides readers through the research work of expert witnesses working as consultants, researchers, and crime analysts and investigators. Offering expert criminological insights into litigation cases, the chapters reveal how forensic social science research can be an effective mechanism for reaching beyond the academy to influence public policy reform and legal proceedings. Practicing Forensic Criminology will appeal to a diverse audience, including social scientists, criminal justice students and researchers, expert witnesses, attorneys, judges, and students of judicial proceedings seeking to understand the value and impact of criminology in the civil court system. - Introduces readers to the impact of evidence-based criminological theory and forensic social science investigations in the legal system - Demonstrates the usefulness of forensic criminology as a research tool, revealing novel relational dynamics among crime events and the larger socio-spatial context - Advances the development of a "translational criminology" – i.e., the translation of knowledge from criminological theory and research to forensic practice – as an expedient to forming robust interactive relationships among criminological social scientists and policy makers

Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy

Author : Warren Tryon
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0124200982
Total Pages : 693 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (242 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy by : Warren Tryon

Download or read book Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy written by Warren Tryon and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2014-03-22 with total page 693 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive Neuroscience and Psychotherapy provides a bionetwork theory unifying empirical evidence in cognitive neuroscience and psychopathology to explain how emotion, learning, and reinforcement affect personality and its extremes. The book uses the theory to explain research results in both disciplines and to predict future findings, as well as to suggest what the theory and evidence say about how we should be treating disorders for maximum effectiveness. While theoretical in nature, the book has practical applications, and takes a mathematical approach to proving its own theorems. The book is unapologetically physical in nature, describing everything we think and feel by way of physical mechanisms and reactions in the brain. This unique marrying of cognitive neuroscience and clinical psychology provides an opportunity to better understand both. - Unifying theory for cognitive neuroscience and clinical psychology - Describes the brain in physical terms via mechanistic processes - Systematically uses the theory to explain empirical evidence in both disciplines - Theory has practical applications for psychotherapy - Ancillary material may be found at: http://booksite.elsevier.com/9780124200715 including an additional chapter and supplements

Forensic Victimology

Author : Brent E. Turvey
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0124079202
Total Pages : 657 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (24 download)

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Book Synopsis Forensic Victimology by : Brent E. Turvey

Download or read book Forensic Victimology written by Brent E. Turvey and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-08-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Published in 2009, the first edition of Forensic Victimology introduced criminologists and criminal investigators to the idea of systematically gathering and examining victim information for the purposes of addressing investigative and forensic issues. The concepts presented within immediately proved vital to social scientists researching victims-offender relationships; investigators and forensic scientists seeking to reconstruct events and establish the elements of a crime; and criminal profilers seeking to link pattern crimes. This is because the principles and guidelines in Forensic Victimology were written to serve criminal investigation and anticipate courtroom testimony. As with the first, this second edition of Forensic Victimology is an applied presentation of a traditionally theoretical subject written by criminal justice practitioners with years of experience-both in the field and in the classroom. It distinguishes the investigative and forensic aspects of applied victim study as necessary adjuncts to what has often been considered a theoretical field. It then identifies the benefits of forensic victimology to casework, providing clearly defined methods and those standards of practice necessary for effectively serving the criminal justice system. - 30% new content, with new chapters on Emergency Services, False Confessions, and Human Trafficking - Use of up-to-date references and case examples to demonstrate the application of forensic victimology - Provides context and scope for both the investigative and forensic aspects of case examination and evidence interpretation - Approaches the study of victimology from a realistic standpoint, moving away from stereotypes and archetypes - Useful for students and professionals working in relation to behavioral science, criminology, criminal justice, forensic science, and criminal investigation

The Death of Expertise

Author : Tom Nichols
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0197763839
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (977 download)

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Book Synopsis The Death of Expertise by : Tom Nichols

Download or read book The Death of Expertise written by Tom Nichols and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2024 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In the early 1990s, a small group of "AIDS denialists," including a University of California professor named Peter Duesberg, argued against virtually the entire medical establishment's consensus that the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was the cause of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome. Science thrives on such counterintuitive challenges, but there was no evidence for Duesberg's beliefs, which turned out to be baseless. Once researchers found HIV, doctors and public health officials were able to save countless lives through measures aimed at preventing its transmission"--

Finding What Works in Health Care

Author : Institute of Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309164257
Total Pages : 267 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Finding What Works in Health Care by : Institute of Medicine

Download or read book Finding What Works in Health Care written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2011-07-20 with total page 267 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Healthcare decision makers in search of reliable information that compares health interventions increasingly turn to systematic reviews for the best summary of the evidence. Systematic reviews identify, select, assess, and synthesize the findings of similar but separate studies, and can help clarify what is known and not known about the potential benefits and harms of drugs, devices, and other healthcare services. Systematic reviews can be helpful for clinicians who want to integrate research findings into their daily practices, for patients to make well-informed choices about their own care, for professional medical societies and other organizations that develop clinical practice guidelines. Too often systematic reviews are of uncertain or poor quality. There are no universally accepted standards for developing systematic reviews leading to variability in how conflicts of interest and biases are handled, how evidence is appraised, and the overall scientific rigor of the process. In Finding What Works in Health Care the Institute of Medicine (IOM) recommends 21 standards for developing high-quality systematic reviews of comparative effectiveness research. The standards address the entire systematic review process from the initial steps of formulating the topic and building the review team to producing a detailed final report that synthesizes what the evidence shows and where knowledge gaps remain. Finding What Works in Health Care also proposes a framework for improving the quality of the science underpinning systematic reviews. This book will serve as a vital resource for both sponsors and producers of systematic reviews of comparative effectiveness research.

Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis

Author : Joseph Hoy
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1394197195
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (941 download)

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Book Synopsis Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis by : Joseph Hoy

Download or read book Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis written by Joseph Hoy and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2023-12-06 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FORENSIC RADIO SURVEY TECHNIQUES FOR CELL SITE ANALYSIS Overview of the end-to-end process of planning, undertaking, and reporting of forensic radio surveying to support cell site analysis The newly updated and revised Second Edition of Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis provides an overview of the end-to-end process of planning, undertaking, and reporting of forensic radio surveying to support the forensic discipline of cell site analysis. It starts by recapping and explaining, in an accessible way, the theory, structure, and operation of cellular communications networks, then moves on to describe the techniques and devices employed to undertake forensic radio surveys. Worked examples are used throughout to demonstrate the practical steps required to plan and undertake forensic radio surveys, including the methods used to analyze radio survey data and compile it into a court report. A summary section condenses the technical and practical elements of the book into a handy reference resource for busy practitioners. The Second Edition contains 25% brand new material covering 5G New Radio networks and ‘6G and beyond,’ critical communications, mobile satellite communications, IoT networks, Cell Site Analysis Tools, and much more. Other sample topics covered in Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis include: Radio theory, covering RF propagation, basic terminology, propagation modes, multipath transmission, and carrying information on a radio signal Core networks, including 2G, 3G, 4G, and 5G, subscriber and device identifiers, and international and temporary mobile subscriber identities Cell access control, covering cell barring, forbidden LAC/TAC, location updating, inter- and intra-carrier handovers, and 3GPP network types Forensic radio surveys objectives, terminology, and types, along with location, static spot, and indoor surveys The Second Edition of Forensic Radio Survey Techniques for Cell Site Analysis is an essential reference on the subject for police analysts, practitioners, technicians, investigators, and cell site experts, along with legal professionals and students/trainees in digital forensics.

Processes of Prejudice

Author : Dominic Abrams
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9781842062708
Total Pages : 111 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (627 download)

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Book Synopsis Processes of Prejudice by : Dominic Abrams

Download or read book Processes of Prejudice written by Dominic Abrams and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Confirmation Bias in Criminal Cases

Author : MOA. LIDEN
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192867644
Total Pages : 289 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (928 download)

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Book Synopsis Confirmation Bias in Criminal Cases by : MOA. LIDEN

Download or read book Confirmation Bias in Criminal Cases written by MOA. LIDEN and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2023-05-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Confirmation Bias in Criminal Cases takes a multi-disciplinary approach to assessing confirmation bias among criminal justice practitioners, combining criminal law, psychology, criminology, medicine, and anthropology. The book analyses case studies from international jurisdictions and utilizes a research-based approach to confirmation bias.

Cognitive Illusions

Author : Rüdiger F Pohl
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 113584495X
Total Pages : 452 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (358 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognitive Illusions by : Rüdiger F Pohl

Download or read book Cognitive Illusions written by Rüdiger F Pohl and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 452 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations.

Model Rules of Professional Conduct

Author : American Bar Association. House of Delegates
Publisher : American Bar Association
ISBN 13 : 9781590318737
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (187 download)

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Book Synopsis Model Rules of Professional Conduct by : American Bar Association. House of Delegates

Download or read book Model Rules of Professional Conduct written by American Bar Association. House of Delegates and published by American Bar Association. This book was released on 2007 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Model Rules of Professional Conduct provides an up-to-date resource for information on legal ethics. Federal, state and local courts in all jurisdictions look to the Rules for guidance in solving lawyer malpractice cases, disciplinary actions, disqualification issues, sanctions questions and much more. In this volume, black-letter Rules of Professional Conduct are followed by numbered Comments that explain each Rule's purpose and provide suggestions for its practical application. The Rules will help you identify proper conduct in a variety of given situations, review those instances where discretionary action is possible, and define the nature of the relationship between you and your clients, colleagues and the courts.

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 1429969350
Total Pages : 511 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (299 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking, Fast and Slow by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Thinking, Fast and Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2011-10-25 with total page 511 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Cognitive Biases in Visualizations

Author : Geoffrey Ellis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319958313
Total Pages : 185 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Cognitive Biases in Visualizations by : Geoffrey Ellis

Download or read book Cognitive Biases in Visualizations written by Geoffrey Ellis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-09-27 with total page 185 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly.

The Politics of Evidence

Author : Justin Parkhurst
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 131738086X
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (173 download)

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Book Synopsis The Politics of Evidence by : Justin Parkhurst

Download or read book The Politics of Evidence written by Justin Parkhurst and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Open Access version of this book, available at http://www.tandfebooks.com/, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 license. There has been an enormous increase in interest in the use of evidence for public policymaking, but the vast majority of work on the subject has failed to engage with the political nature of decision making and how this influences the ways in which evidence will be used (or misused) within political areas. This book provides new insights into the nature of political bias with regards to evidence and critically considers what an ‘improved’ use of evidence would look like from a policymaking perspective. Part I describes the great potential for evidence to help achieve social goals, as well as the challenges raised by the political nature of policymaking. It explores the concern of evidence advocates that political interests drive the misuse or manipulation of evidence, as well as counter-concerns of critical policy scholars about how appeals to ‘evidence-based policy’ can depoliticise political debates. Both concerns reflect forms of bias – the first representing technical bias, whereby evidence use violates principles of scientific best practice, and the second representing issue bias in how appeals to evidence can shift political debates to particular questions or marginalise policy-relevant social concerns. Part II then draws on the fields of policy studies and cognitive psychology to understand the origins and mechanisms of both forms of bias in relation to political interests and values. It illustrates how such biases are not only common, but can be much more predictable once we recognise their origins and manifestations in policy arenas. Finally, Part III discusses ways to move forward for those seeking to improve the use of evidence in public policymaking. It explores what constitutes ‘good evidence for policy’, as well as the ‘good use of evidence’ within policy processes, and considers how to build evidence-advisory institutions that embed key principles of both scientific good practice and democratic representation. Taken as a whole, the approach promoted is termed the ‘good governance of evidence’ – a concept that represents the use of rigorous, systematic and technically valid pieces of evidence within decision-making processes that are representative of, and accountable to, populations served.