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How To Adjust To A Large Fall In Commodity Prices
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Book Synopsis How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices by : Mr.Paulo A Medas
Download or read book How to Adjust to a Large Fall in Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paulo A Medas and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-27 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Resource-rich countries have to manage highly volatile commodity revenues. In periods of revenue booms there is a tendency for large spending scale-ups. When facing large and persistent reductions in commodity prices, some of these countries will need to adjust their budgets to the new reality. In many cases, overall surpluses turn into large fiscal deficits and borrowing costs tend to rise with the fall in commodity prices. This note discusses how to undertake large fiscal adjustments, which often tend to be protracted and with long-lasting impacts on growth. Consequently, the note also highlights how to better prepare for future booms and busts in commodity prices.
Book Synopsis Excerpt: Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Excerpt: Shifting Commodity Markets in a Globalized World written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-09-22 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses developments and prospects for energy, metals, and food markets since the early 2000s, the start of what is termed a commodities supercycle—the rise of commodity prices over a decade or more as a result of a rapid urbanization and an expansion of infrastructure. Macroeconomists often assume that technological innovation is exogenous (driven largely by external factors or forces), but this volume documents how innovation in energy markets is directly affected by prices. When oil, natural gas, or fossil fuels become scarce, prices increase. This stimulates innovation and the adoption of new technologies and techniques for recovery and use of these resources. Conversely, when these commodities are abundant, prices fall, slowing the pace of innovation and the adoption of new techniques. At the heart of international trade in commodities are cross-country differenc¬es in resource endowments. Natural resources are materials or substances that occur in nature and can be used for economic gain, and so these include not only reserves of hydrocarbons, minerals, fisheries, and forests, but also temperate weather, fertile land, and access to water, which are important to agriculture.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1988-10-03 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial countries as a group suggest that changes in commodity prices tend to lead those in consumer prices, and that the inclusion of commodity prices significantly improves the fit of regressions of a multi-country consumer price index. However, there does not appear to be a reliable long-run relationship between the level of commodity prices and the level of consumer prices.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475507038 Total Pages :299 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-17 with total page 299 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-12-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a common perception that the prices of unrelated commodities move together. This paper re-examines this notion, using a measure of comovement of economic time series called concordance. Concordance measures the proportion of time that the prices of two commodities are concurrently in the same boom period or same slump period. Using data on the prices of several unrelated commodities, the paper finds no evidence of comovement in commodity prices. The results carry an important policy implication, as the study provides no support for earlier claims of irrational trading behavior by participants in world commodity markets.
Book Synopsis Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 by : Brian Graf
Download or read book Consumer Price Index Manual, 2020 written by Brian Graf and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-11-19 with total page 509 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Consumer Price Index Manual: Concepts and Methods contains comprehensive information and explanations on compiling a consumer price index (CPI). The Manual provides an overview of the methods and practices national statistical offices (NSOs) should consider when making decisions on how to deal with the various problems in the compilation of a CPI. The chapters cover many topics. They elaborate on the different practices currently in use, propose alternatives whenever possible, and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. The primary purpose of the Manual is to assist countries in producing CPIs that reflect internationally recommended methods and practices.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :151351539X Total Pages :228 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (135 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-10-06 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue discusses a number of factors affecting global growth, as well as growth prospects across the world’s main countries and regions. It assesses the ongoing recovery from the global financial crisis in advanced and emerging market economies and evaluates risks, both upside and downside, including those associated with commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility. A special feature examines in detail causes and implications of the recent commodity price downturn; analytical chapters look at the effects of commodity windfalls on potential output and of exchange rate movements on trade.
Book Synopsis Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-23 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.
Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr. Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Book Synopsis Commodities in Crisis by : Alfred Maizels
Download or read book Commodities in Crisis written by Alfred Maizels and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 1992 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With the dramatic changes in the global political scene, many developing countries are re-evaluating their economic and political priorities. This reappraisal scrutinizes their dependence on specific commodities and the crisis into which this market has been thrown in the last decade. This work relates the main theoretical and empirical issues in the collapse in commodity prices since 1980--a major cause of the Third World economic crises--to perceived conflicts of interest between developed and developing countries. Maizels continues his study by discussing the elements of a new approach to an effective commodity policy for the future. He includes coverage of such major problems as the impact of commodity instability on the global economy, market structure, as well as synthetics and diversification. This study will be of interest to academics and students of development economics and international trade as well as to policymakers in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Commodity Markets and the Global Economy by : Blake C. Clayton
Download or read book Commodity Markets and the Global Economy written by Blake C. Clayton and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016 with total page 215 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a clear-eyed analysis of questions at the intersection of commodity markets, natural resource economics, and public policy.
Author :International Labour Office Publisher :International Labour Organization ISBN 13 :9789221136996 Total Pages :578 pages Book Rating :4.1/5 (369 download)
Book Synopsis Consumer Price Index Manual by : International Labour Office
Download or read book Consumer Price Index Manual written by International Labour Office and published by International Labour Organization. This book was released on 2004-08-25 with total page 578 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate at which prices of consumer goods and services change over time. It is used as a key indicator of economic performance, as well as in the setting of monetary and socio-economic policy such as indexation of wages and social security benefits, purchasing power parities and inflation measures. This manual contains methodological guidelines for statistical offices and other agencies responsible for constructing and calculating CPIs, and also examines underlying economic and statistical concepts involved. Topics covered include: expenditure weights, sampling, price collection, quality adjustment, sampling, price indices calculations, errors and bias, organisation and management, dissemination, index number theory, durables and user costs.
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 626 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises by : Mr.Markus Eberhardt
Download or read book Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises written by Mr.Markus Eberhardt and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs.
Book Synopsis Commodity Terms of Trade by : Bertrand Gruss
Download or read book Commodity Terms of Trade written by Bertrand Gruss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-01-24 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individual commodities is weighted using commodity-level trade data. The database includes a commodity terms-of-trade index—which proxies the windfall gains and losses of income associated with changes in world prices—as well as additional country-specific series, including commodity export and import price indices. We provide indices that are constructed using, alternatively, fixed weights (based on average trade flows over several decades) and time-varying weights (which can account for time variation in the mix of commodities traded and the overall importance of commodities in economic activity). The paper also discusses the dynamics of commodity terms of trade across country groups and their influence on key macroeconomic aggregates.
