How Much Leverage Is Too Much Or Does Corporate Risk Determine The Severity Of A Recession

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How Much Leverage is Too Much, Or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession?

Author : Iryna V. Ivaschenko
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis How Much Leverage is Too Much, Or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession? by : Iryna V. Ivaschenko

Download or read book How Much Leverage is Too Much, Or Does Corporate Risk Determine the Severity of a Recession? written by Iryna V. Ivaschenko and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory suggests that vulnerable financial conditions of the corporate sector can trigger or worsen an economy-wide recession. This paper proposes a measure of corporate vulnerability, the Corporate Vulnerability Index (CVI) and analyses whether it can explain the probability and severity of recessions. The CVI is constructed as the default probability for the entire corporate sector, using the model of corporate debt by Anderson, Sundaresan, and Tychon (1996). The CVI is shown to be a significant predictor of the probability of a recession 4 to 6 quarters ahead, even controlling for other leading indicators. An increase in the CVI is also associated with an increase in the probability of a more severe and lengthy recession 3 to 6 quarters ahead.

Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk

Author : F. Hagenstein
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 0230523293
Total Pages : 355 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk by : F. Hagenstein

Download or read book Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk written by F. Hagenstein and published by Springer. This book was released on 2004-10-01 with total page 355 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Investing in Corporate Bonds and Credit Risk is a valuable tool for any corporate bond investor. All the most recent developments and strategies in investment in corporate bonds are analyzed included with qualitative and quantitative approaches. A complete and up-to-date investment process is developed through the book, using many examples taken from banking practice. The growing significance of derivative instruments and credit diversification to bond investors is also analyzed in detail.

The End of Excess

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 780 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis The End of Excess by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

Download or read book The End of Excess written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 780 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility

Author : Sharjil M. Haque
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589064127
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility by : Sharjil M. Haque

Download or read book The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility written by Sharjil M. Haque and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-05 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.

The Derivatives Revolution

Author : Raffaele Scalcione
Publisher : Kluwer Law International B.V.
ISBN 13 : 9041134301
Total Pages : 458 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (411 download)

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Book Synopsis The Derivatives Revolution by : Raffaele Scalcione

Download or read book The Derivatives Revolution written by Raffaele Scalcione and published by Kluwer Law International B.V.. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 458 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is now widely recognized that an uncontrolled "derivatives revolution" triggered one of the most spectacular worst-case scenarios of modern times. This book - the most cogent legal analysis of the subject yet to appear in any language - lays bare the core role played by the failure to adequately regulate derivatives in the financial crisis of recent years. The author's insistence that derivatives must be viewed not as profit-seeking investments but as risk management tools - and his well-grounded prescriptions to ensure that they are regulated in that way - sheds clear light on the best way for companies, financial institutions, and hedge funds to move forward in their use of these useful but highly hazardous instruments. This book clearly shows how such elements as the following fit into the legal analysis of derivatives, and how proper regulation will preserve their usefulness and economic value: ; derivatives allow for the most efficient and cost-effective risk fractioning, hence risk taking, techniques ever conceived; derivatives allow for all measurable and identifiable risks that may exist in modern finance; the ability to isolate risks and insure against risk exposures is the key to the very survival of modern financial markets; risk buyers effectively take on financial exposure to various types of risk while hedgers unload unwanted exposures; derivatives allow domestic investors to acquire exposure to foreign markets without the necessity of dealing with foreign laws, foreign investments, currency exchange, or foreign fiscal regimes; derivatives increase social welfare by making it easier and less expensive to carry out many types of financial transactions; derivatives allow governments to insulate, manage, hedge or concentrate risks deriving from financial, meteorological, and even geopolitical exposure; and derivatives allow radical changes to financial and risk structure to be performed silently and rapidly. To the question: how do we ensure that a company trading derivatives is regulated effectively? this work offers a clear and convincing answer. The author's detailed recommendations for regulatory and corporate governance measures are designed to prevent excessive risk taking, the emergence of rogue traders, and ultimately the emergence of another systemic disturbance caused by chains of derivatives-related losses.

Nonfinancial Firms in Latin America

Author : Ms.Maria Gonzalez
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475513488
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonfinancial Firms in Latin America by : Ms.Maria Gonzalez

Download or read book Nonfinancial Firms in Latin America written by Ms.Maria Gonzalez and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine corporate sector vulnerabilities in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. First, we identify stylized facts based on corporate financial indicators. Second, we assess vulnerability of individual firms to a sudden stop in financing through a probit model, using a panel of 18 countries in 2000-11. Results suggest that higher leverage and maturity exposures raise a firm’s probability to become exposed to a funding shock, while a larger firm size and buffers reduce it. Further, greater exchange rate flexibility can help mitigate corporate vulnerability. Identification of firms at risk through the model suggests that some vulnerabilities may be building in Latin America led by leverage, currency exposures and moderating buffers. These effects are partially offset, however, by a significant reduction in maturity exposures.

IMF Survey

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Survey by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book IMF Survey written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Household Leverage and the Recession

Author : Callum Jones
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484374983
Total Pages : 51 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Household Leverage and the Recession by : Callum Jones

Download or read book Household Leverage and the Recession written by Callum Jones and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-08-30 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.

House of Debt

Author : Atif Mian
Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 022627750X
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis House of Debt by : Atif Mian

Download or read book House of Debt written by Atif Mian and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2015-05-20 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “A concise and powerful account of how the great recession happened and what should be done to avoid another one . . . well-argued and consistently informative.” —Wall Street Journal The Great American Recession of 2007-2009 resulted in the loss of eight million jobs and the loss of four million homes to foreclosures. Is it a coincidence that the United States witnessed a dramatic rise in household debt in the years before the recession—that the total amount of debt for American households doubled between 2000 and 2007 to $14 trillion? Definitely not. Armed with clear and powerful evidence, Atif Mian and Amir Sufi reveal in House of Debt how the Great Recession and Great Depression, as well as less dramatic periods of economic malaise, were caused by a large run-up in household debt followed by a significantly large drop in household spending. Though the banking crisis captured the public’s attention, Mian and Sufi argue strongly with actual data that current policy is too heavily biased toward protecting banks and creditors. Increasing the flow of credit, they show, is disastrously counterproductive when the fundamental problem is too much debt. As their research shows, excessive household debt leads to foreclosures, causing individuals to spend less and save more. Less spending means less demand for goods, followed by declines in production and huge job losses. How do we end such a cycle? With a direct attack on debt, say Mian and Sufi. We can be rid of painful bubble-and-bust episodes only if the financial system moves away from its reliance on inflexible debt contracts. As an example, they propose new mortgage contracts that are built on the principle of risk-sharing, a concept that would have prevented the housing bubble from emerging in the first place. Thoroughly grounded in compelling economic evidence, House of Debt offers convincing answers to some of the most important questions facing today’s economy: Why do severe recessions happen? Could we have prevented the Great Recession and its consequences? And what actions are needed to prevent such crises going forward?

IMF Research Bulletin

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 444 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin by :

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

United States, Selected Issues

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis United States, Selected Issues by :

Download or read book United States, Selected Issues written by and published by . This book was released on with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Author : Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475561008
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications by : Mr.Stijn Claessens

Download or read book Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications written by Mr.Stijn Claessens and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report

Author : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher : Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN 13 : 1616405414
Total Pages : 692 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report by : Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission

Download or read book The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report written by Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2011-05-01 with total page 692 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.

Publications Catalog

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Publications Catalog by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Publications Catalog written by International Monetary Fund and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

United States of America

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 120 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis United States of America by :

Download or read book United States of America written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 120 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Employment Risks from Present Credit and Business Liquidity Conditions

Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 286 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Employment Risks from Present Credit and Business Liquidity Conditions by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy

Download or read book Employment Risks from Present Credit and Business Liquidity Conditions written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Household leverage and the recession

Author : Thomas Philippon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (722 download)

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Book Synopsis Household leverage and the recession by : Thomas Philippon

Download or read book Household leverage and the recession written by Thomas Philippon and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: A salient feature of the recent U.S. recession is that output and employment have declined more in regions (states, counties) where household leverage had increased more during the credit boom. This pattern is difficult to explain with standard models of financing frictions. We propose a theory that can account for these cross-sectional facts. We study a cash-in-advance economy in which home equity borrowing, alongside public money, is used to conduct transactions. A decline in home equity borrowing tightens the cash-in-advance constraint, thus triggering a recession. We show that the evidence on house prices, leverage and employment across US regions identifies the key parameters of the model. Models estimated with cross-sectional evidence display high sensitivity of real activity to nominal credit shocks. Since home equity borrowing and public money are, in the model, perfect substitutes, our counter-factual experiments suggest that monetary policy actions have significantly reduced the severity of the recent recession