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Has Macro Forecasting Failed
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Book Synopsis Has Macro-forecasting Failed? by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Has Macro-forecasting Failed? written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The answer to this question depends on the treatment of logically and empirically prior questions about (1) what the forecasts are and why they are needed, and (2) what can reasonably be expected of them. Further, what forecasters can and should do cannot be established without studying the record and assessing the probable future of their endeavors. Accordingly, the basic approach taken in this paper is to ask of the assembled data what professional standards have economists engaged in macro-forecasting been able to attain and maintain in competing with each other and alternative methods. There is much disenchantment with economic forecasting. The difficult question is how much of it is due to unacceptably poor performance and how much to unrealistically high prior expectations. My argument is that the latter is a major factor. In times of continuing expansion with restrained inflation, as in the 1960s, macro-forecasts looked good and economists were held in high repute. Later when inflation accelerated, serious recessions reappeared, and long-term growth of productivity and total output slackened, the errors of macroeconomic models and forecasts, and the old and new controversies among the economists, received increased public attention. The reputation of the profession suffered, and the interest of academic economists in forecasting, never very strong, weakened still more. Yet the performance of professional economic forecasters, when assessed proper relative terms, has been considerably better in recent times than in the earlier post-World War II period. What happened is that the improvements fell short of enabling the forecasters to cope with the new problems they faced.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 613 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasting by : Robert Evans
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasting written by Robert Evans and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2002-01-22 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.
Book Synopsis Has Micro-forecasting Failed? by : Victor Zarnowitz
Download or read book Has Micro-forecasting Failed? written by Victor Zarnowitz and published by . This book was released on 1991 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? by : Zidong An
Download or read book How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-03-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession years will be different from other years, they miss the magnitude of the recession by a wide margin until the year is almost over. Forecasts during non-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast errors. Our second finding is that forecasts of the private sector and the official sector are virtually identical; thus, both are equally good at missing recessions. Strong booms are also missed, providing suggestive evidence for Nordhaus’ (1987) view that behavioral factors—the reluctance to absorb either good or bad news—play a role in the evolution of forecasts.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting by : James H. Stock
Download or read book Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting written by James H. Stock and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-04-15 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Book Synopsis Understanding Economic Forecasts by : David F. Hendry
Download or read book Understanding Economic Forecasts written by David F. Hendry and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2003 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies by : Edouard Challe
Download or read book Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Policies written by Edouard Challe and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2023-09-19 with total page 361 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies, applied to concrete issues and presented within an integrated New Keynesian framework. This textbook presents the basic tools for analyzing macroeconomic fluctuations and policies and applies them to contemporary issues. It employs a unified New Keynesian framework for understanding business cycles, major crises, and macroeconomic policies, introducing students to the approach most often used in academic macroeconomic analysis and by central banks and international institutions. The book addresses such topics as how recessions and crises spread; what instruments central banks and governments have to stimulate activity when private demand is weak; and what “unconventional” macroeconomic policies might work when conventional monetary policy loses its effectiveness (as has happened in many countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession.). The text introduces the foundations of modern business cycle theory through the notions of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and then applies the theory to the study of regular business-cycle fluctuations in output, inflation, and employment. It considers conventional monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle, and examines unconventional macroeconomic policies, including forward guidance and quantitative easing, in situations of “liquidity trap”—deep crises in which conventional policies are either ineffective or have very different effects than in normal time. This book is the first to use the New Keynesian framework at the advanced undergraduate level, connecting undergraduate learning not only with the more advanced tools taught at the graduate level but also with the large body of policy-oriented research in academic journals. End-of-chapter problems help students master the materials presented.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics by : Alvaro Cencini
Download or read book Macroeconomic Foundations of Macroeconomics written by Alvaro Cencini and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2012-10-12 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Contrary to common belief, macroeconomics is not merely a theory of aggregates, and cannot be constructed from individual behaviour. Both nationally and internationally, there are economic laws that are logically independent of economic agents’ behaviour. These are the macroeconomic foundations of macroeconomics. Presenting cutting-edge material, Alvaro Cencini explores these foundations, and shows that the introduction of money entails economics being interpreted conceptually not mathematically. His innovative book provides the elements for a new approach by applying the most recent results of monetary analysis to the study of national and international economics. It covers recent progress in monetary theory, provides the reader with a greater understanding of the subject, and will be essential reading for economic students as well as a valuable resource for economists.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book Forecasting Non-stationary Economic Time Series written by Michael P. Clements and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1999 with total page 398 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text on economic forecasting asks why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to forecasting, it looks at the implications for causal modelling, presents forecast errors and delineates sources of failure.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Forecasts Under the Prism of Error-correction Models by : Angelos A. Antzoulatos
Download or read book Macroeconomic Forecasts Under the Prism of Error-correction Models written by Angelos A. Antzoulatos and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :European Conference of Ministers of Transport Publisher :OECD Publishing ISBN 13 :9282105555 Total Pages :269 pages Book Rating :4.2/5 (821 download)
Book Synopsis ECMT Round Tables Transport Economics Report of the One-Hundredth Round Table on Transport Economics Held in Paris on 2-3 June 1994 by : European Conference of Ministers of Transport
Download or read book ECMT Round Tables Transport Economics Report of the One-Hundredth Round Table on Transport Economics Held in Paris on 2-3 June 1994 written by European Conference of Ministers of Transport and published by OECD Publishing. This book was released on 1995-12-22 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To mark its hundredth Round Table on transport economics, the ECMT decided to publish a special issue. Fifty European experts were asked to submit papers examining not only the major issues addressed by transport economics in the past, but also those that are likely to emerge in the future.
Book Synopsis Social and Structural Change by : Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Download or read book Social and Structural Change written by Karl Heinrich Oppenländer and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-01-04 with total page 647 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1998, this wide-ranging and in-depth volume from specialists in economics and statistics examines leading indicators, the timing of cyclical turning points, firm behaviour, financial indicators, economic policy recommendations, transition economies and the service sector in relation to Finland’s bid for European Monetary Union membership.
Download or read book Growth Cycles written by George W. Evans and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We construct a rational expectations model in which aggregate growth alternates between a low growth and a high growth state. When all agents expect growth to be slow, the returns on investment are low, and little investment takes place. This slows growth and confirms the prediction that the returns on investment will be low. But if agents expect fast growth, investment is high, returns are high, and growth is rapid. This expectational indeterminacy is induced by complementarity between different types of capital goods. In a growth cycle there are stochastic shifts between high and low growth states and agents take full account of these transitions. The rules that agents need to form rational expectations in this equilibrium are simple. The equilibrium with growth cycles is stable under the dynamics implied by a correspondingly simple learning rule.
Book Synopsis Grand Parkway (State Highway 99) Segment B from SH 288 to IH 45, Brazoria and Galveston Counties by :
Download or read book Grand Parkway (State Highway 99) Segment B from SH 288 to IH 45, Brazoria and Galveston Counties written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 526 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Forecasting written by Jennifer Castle and published by Yale University Press. This book was released on 2019-06-11 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Book Synopsis The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Economy by : William M. Wallace
Download or read book The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Economy written by William M. Wallace and published by Bloomsbury Publishing USA. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This highly original book puts the crash of 2008 into a broad perspective by digging deeply into the misguided theories behind the policies that allowed it to happen. Who was responsible for the 2008 crash? The Decline and Fall of the U.S. Economy: How Liberals and Conservatives Both Got It Wrong makes it clear that both parties were at faul—and explains how and why. This broad and far-reaching book is the first to analyze the crash from the perspective of evolution, or "punctuated equilibrium." As it explains, the punctuated boom brings on change, the bust leads back to a tightly constrained equilibrium. Both conditions pose risks and both—as William McDonald Wallace argues—can be managed to reduce the odds that economic imbalances will arise. Focusing on the policies that created bubbles in housing, stocks, and more, Wallace pinpoints historical events that gave rise to unrealistic theories and ideologies, showing how they, in turn, gave rise to policies that led to collapse. He explains how Darwin's now-discredited theory of "uniformitarianism" (evolution as a continuous, smooth process) led economists to ignore how evolution actually influences economies and economic behavior, and he shows what we can do so it doesn't happen again.
