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Government Size And Output Volatility
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Book Synopsis Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization? by : Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Government Size and Output Volatility: Should We Forsake Automatic Stabilization? written by Xavier Debrun and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2008-05-01 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper takes stock of the debate on the positive link between output volatility and the size of government-which reflects automatic stabilizers. After a survey of the literature, we show that the contribution of automatic stabilizers to output stability may have disappeared since the 1990s. However, econometric analysis suggests that the breakdown in the government size-volatility relationship largely reflects temporary developments (better monetary management and financial intermediation). Once these factors are taken into account, the stabilizing role of government size remains important although little extra stability can be gained by expanding public expenditure beyond 40 percent of GDP.
Book Synopsis Government Size and Output Volatility by : Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Government Size and Output Volatility written by Xavier Debrun and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 53 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Xavier Debrun
Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Xavier Debrun and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government by : Mr.Carlo Cottarelli
Download or read book Automatic Stabilizers and the Size of Government written by Mr.Carlo Cottarelli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-07-01 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The size of government is a commonly used variable in many analytical studies on the effects of fiscal policy. An accepted practice is to measure it as the ratio of government spending to GDP. However, this is not the correct metric when computing the stabilization effects of nondiscretionary fiscal policy. Intuitively, public spending does not react to cyclical conditions as much as taxes do - as reflected in the standard zero-one elasticity assumptions for spending and revenue, respectively. This paper shows that the revenue to GDP ratio is the appropriate indicator of government size for the purpose of assessing the stabilization effects of nondiscretionary fiscal policy.
Download or read book What Drives Output Volatility? written by and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the determinants of output volatility in a panel of 22 OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we avoid ad hoc estimates of volatility based on rolling windows, and we account for possible non-stationarity of the data. Specifically, output volatility is estimated by means of an unobserved components model where the volatility series is the outcome of both macroeconomic determinants and a latent integrated process. A Bayesian model selection is performed to test for the presence of the nonstationary component. The results point to demographics and government size as important determinants of macroeconomic (in)stability. In particular, a larger share of prime-age workers is associated with lower output volatility, while higher public expenditure increases volatility.
Book Synopsis Government Size and Output Volatility by : Erkki Koskela
Download or read book Government Size and Output Volatility written by Erkki Koskela and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability by : Mr.Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability written by Mr.Xavier Debrun and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-05-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper revisits the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic stability. Two salient features of our analysis are (1) a systematic test for the government’s ambivalent role as a shock absorber and a shock inducer—removing a downward bias present in existing estimates of the impact of automatic stabilizers—and (2) a broad sample of advanced and emerging market economies. Results provide strong support for the view that fiscal stabilization operates mainly through automatic stabilizers. Also, the destabilizing impact of policy changes not systematically related to the business cycle may not be as robust as suggested in the literature.
Book Synopsis Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability by : Madhusudan S. Mohanty
Download or read book Government Size and Macroeconomic Stability written by Madhusudan S. Mohanty and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This article examines the potential role of government size in explaining differences in output volatility across OECD countries in the context of the latest recession. There is some evidence to suggest that government size as measured by the share of expenditure in GDP has a modest negative association with output volatility. Moreover, this link seems to have weakened further since the mid-1980s. Factors such as trade openness and exposure to terms-of-trade shocks as well as volatility of inflation appear important. Interestingly, the same set of factors seems to matter in explaining the severity of recession in OECD countries.
Book Synopsis Government Size, Trade Openness, and Output Volatility by : Eiji Fujii
Download or read book Government Size, Trade Openness, and Output Volatility written by Eiji Fujii and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Government is often considered the safe sector of an open economy that provides households with insurance against external risk exposure. Among highly integrated economies, however, households should be able to exploit common financial markets to insure themselves. In this paper we examine the relationship between government size, trade openness, and output volatility across fully integrated economies using Japan's regional income accounting and public finance data. The contributions of the government- and market-based insurances to inter-regional risk sharing are also estimated. The empirical results reveal some unique aspects of the state-market interactions under full economic integration with vertical fiscal imbalance.
Book Synopsis Government Size and Output Volatility by : Matti Virén
Download or read book Government Size and Output Volatility written by Matti Virén and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tiivistelmä: Julkisen sektorin koko ja tuotannon volatiilisuus.
Book Synopsis Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries by : Dalia Hakura
Download or read book Output Volatility and Large Output Drops in Emerging Market and Developing Countries written by Dalia Hakura and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper establishes that output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across all countries over the past three decades, but remain considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to result from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970-2003 period suggest that discretionary fiscal spending volatility, and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility are key determinants of volatility and large output drops.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Risk and the Size of Government by : Fabrizio Carmignani
Download or read book Macroeconomic Risk and the Size of Government written by Fabrizio Carmignani and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "We present an empirical model where output growth volatility and government expenditure are jointly endogenous and both are affected by policies and institutions. We find that output volatility increases government expenditure, but higher expenditure, causes greater output volatility. This suggests that discretionary government intervention is destabilising. Trade openness drives both higher expenditure and greater output volatility. Financial openness instead disciplines the size of government. Political institutions that strengthen policymaker's accountability towards the electorate result in lower expenditure and, indirectly, contribute to output stabilisation. Institutional arrangements concerning the central bank are not neutral: a more independent central bank calls for lower output volatility"--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers by : Antonio Fatás
Download or read book Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers written by Antonio Fatás and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Government Size and Output Volatility by : Xavier Debrun
Download or read book Government Size and Output Volatility written by Xavier Debrun and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prior to the launch of the euro, academics and policymakers were concerned that the loss of the monetary policy instrument would deprive participating countries of a vital tool to respond to country-specific economic shocks. This concern was rooted in the generally accepted proposition that market-based adjustment channels - i.e. labour mobility and capital flows - tended to be weaker among euro area countries than among regions of existing monetary unions such as the United States. Automatic stabilizers had long been regarded as playing a key role in macroeconomic stabilization. In particular, they were generally considered as having contributed significantly to the decrease of output volatility witnessed in Europe and in the United States after World War II, when the size of governments increased substantially on both sides of the Atlantic. Hence it was hoped that improved national fiscal policy could partly make up for the loss of monetary policy in stabilizing national macroeconomic conditions. The aim of the paper is to discuss this issue in the light of recent experience.
Book Synopsis The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries by : Bernardin Akitoby
Download or read book The Cyclical and Long-Term Behavior of Government Expenditures in Developing Countries written by Bernardin Akitoby and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2004-10-01 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the short- and long-term movements of government spending relative to output in 51 countries. We find that in the short term, the main components of government spending increase with output in about half of the sample countries, with some variation across spending categories and countries. Further, we find that there is a long-term relationship between government spending and output (in line with "Wagner's law") for the majority of countries for at least one spending aggregate. In the short term, we find that power dispersion and government size typically dampen the positive response of government spending to output. Output volatility and financial risk, on the other hand, contribute to the procylicality of government spending.
Book Synopsis The Stabilizing Role of Government Size by : Andrés Domingo Andrés
Download or read book The Stabilizing Role of Government Size written by Andrés Domingo Andrés and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an analysis of how alternative models of the business cycle can replicate the stylized fact that large governments are associated with less volatile economies. Our analysis shows that adding nominal rigidities and costs of capital adjustment to an otherwise standard RBC model can generate a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of output. However, in the model, we find that the stabilizing effect is only due to a composition effect and it is not present when we look at the volatility of private output. Given that empirically we also observe a negative correlation between government size and the volatility of consumption, we modify the model by introducing rule-of-thumb consumers. In this modified version of our initial model we observe that consumption volatility is also reduced when government size increases in similar way to the observed pattern in OECD economies over the last 45 years.[Resumen de autor]
Book Synopsis Government Size and Macroeconomic Volatility by : Fabrice Collard
Download or read book Government Size and Macroeconomic Volatility written by Fabrice Collard and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine the implications of government size for macroeconomic volatility in a standard New-Keynesian model with multiple shocks. Larger government size mitigates volatility arising from technology, preference, mark-up and monetary policy shocks, but amplifies that emanating from expenditure shocks. The degree of mitigation-amplification varies with the size of government, which opens up the possibility of a non-monotone relationship between volatility and government size. When we estimate the model on US data we find that the relationship is negative around the current US size, but it could eventually turn positive as the ratio of government spending to GDP increased. The location of the turning point in this relationship depends mainly on the type of private expenditure crowded out by higher government spending and on the degree of price stickiness.
